FY13 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee January 7, 2013

FY13 Budget and Caseload Update

Fiscal CommitteeJanuary 7, 2013

FY13 Caseload Overview

Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is projecting a surplus of $12.7M which is approximately $900K more than last month’s projected surplus of $11.8M. Voucher access remains closed, and we are not replacing voucher children as they leave the program. The forecast includes Summer Only care for 779 children for June 2013.

DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted deficit has decreased to $5.97M, an decrease of $700K. The change is driven by a decrease in caseload (approximately 400 children). The November caseload forecast projected the following for October to November:

a 3% increase for School Age children; we are reporting a 1% increase, a variance of 2%.

a 2% increase for Toddlers; we are reporting a -1% decrease for Toddlers, a variance of 3%.

The impact has been forecasted for the remaining 7 months of the fiscal year.

Supportive: The projected surplus of $1.9M increased to a surplus of $2.8M. Contract slots continue to remain open impacting the change in forecast. Ongoing discussions with DCF indicate an effort to fill open slots.

Summary: After reducing the current surplus by the forecasted DTA deficit ($6.0M), and adding the anticipated DCF surplus, the overall surplus in the caseload accounts is approximately $9.5M.

2

FY13 Caseload Overview SummaryAs of November 2012

3

FY2013 Caseload Spending FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget Income Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 125,208,236$ 9,228,231$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 84,929,055$ 3,485,654$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 219,156,568$ 12,713,884$

DTA Voucher 125,495,740$ 131,467,835$ (5,972,095)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 73,780,144$ 2,850,731$ Voucher 100,000$ 157,433$ (57,433)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 74,537,577$ 2,793,298$ Total 434,697,067$ 425,161,980$ 9,535,087$

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary

4

FY2013 Caseload Spending - October FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs. Budget

I ncome Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 125,370,240$ 9,066,227$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 85,661,580$ 2,753,129$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 220,051,097$ 11,819,355$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 132,243,742$ (6,748,002)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 74,710,829$ 1,920,046$ Voucher 100,000$ 87,795$ 12,205$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 75,398,623$ 1,932,252$ Total 434,697,067$ 427,693,462$ 7,003,605$

FY2013 Caseload Spending - September FY2013 Budget Forecast



231,870,452$ 220,209,904$ 11,660,548$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 129,037,458$ (3,541,718)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 75,999,574$ 631,301$ Voucher 100,000$ 135,320$ (35,320)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 76,734,894$ 595,981$ Total 434,697,067$ 425,982,255$ 8,714,812$

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary

5

FY2013 Caseload Spending - August 2012 FY2013 Budget Forecast



231,870,452$ 221,125,321$ 10,745,131$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 129,038,794$ (3,543,054)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 76,637,299$ (6,424)$ Voucher 100,000$ 148,086$ (48,086)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 77,385,385$ (54,510)$ Total 434,697,067$ 427,549,500$ 7,147,567$

FY2013 Caseload Spending - J uly 2012 FY2013 Budget Forecast



231,870,452$ 217,712,159$ 14,158,293$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 128,621,652$ (3,125,912)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 77,047,992$ (417,117)$ Voucher 100,000$ 157,583$ (57,583)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 77,805,575$ (474,700)$ Total 434,697,067$ 424,139,386$ 10,557,681$

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FY 2013 Income Eligible(3000-4060)

Income Eligible SFY13 Forecast for November 2012

MonthCaseload Budget

Actual Caseload Variance

Budget Spending P lan Projection

2013 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures YTD Variance

Jun-12 32,215 32,215 N/AJul-12 31,364 31,383 19 18,607,517$ 18,475,043$ 18,931,315$ Aug-12 31,325 31,543 218 18,902,260$ 18,931,315$ 18,902,260$ Sep-12 30,933 30,614 (319) 17,350,379$ 14,960,877$ 21,291,763$ Oct-12 30,457 29,768 (689) 17,632,030$ 17,691,788$ 21,232,005$ Nov-12 30,398 29,329 (1,069) 17,302,718$ 16,902,848$ 21,631,875$ Dec-12 30,237 16,902,323$ 17,368,275$ 21,165,922$ Jan-13 29,950 17,423,935$ 18,837,504$ 19,752,352$ Feb-13 30,048 16,954,176$ 16,383,759$ 20,322,770$ Mar-13 29,955 17,050,124$ 17,148,140$ 20,224,753$ Apr-13 29,788 17,311,495$ 17,791,977$ 19,744,272$ May-13 29,256 17,370,697$ 18,344,344$ 18,770,624$ Jun-13 29,924 17,487,919$ 17,301,421$ 18,957,122$

GRANTS 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ TOTAL 219,314,849$ 219,156,568$

231,870,452 231,870,452 12,555,603 12,713,884

- Blue : FY13 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures

* Budgeted caseload assumes access is closed (Vouchers) and terminations will be consistent with historical trend.

- Additional savings may be realised by parent fees.* Spending P lan P rojection is maximum obligation, flex , teen and homeless contracts. * Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. P lease note a child could receive multiple services.

* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing.

Surplus/DeficiencyFY13 Appropriation

**2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase P rojection - Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing.

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FY 2013 DTA Related(3000-4050)



Budget Spending P lan Projection


Expenditures

YTD Variance (Original Spending

P lan)Jun-12 16,920 16,920 N/AJul-12 16,019 16,277 258 10,717,525$ 11,002,855$ (285,330)$

Aug-12 16,060 16,356 296 11,233,530$ 11,412,232$ (464,032)$ Sep-12 16,419 16,310 (109) 9,986,720$ 9,437,343$ 85,345$ Oct-12 16,201 16,740 539 11,002,439$ 11,573,611$ (485,827)$ Nov-12 16,428 16,728 300 10,991,409$ 11,387,008$ (881,427)$ Dec-12 16,358 10,447,142$ 10,734,960$ (1,169,244)$ Jan-13 15,912 11,129,920$ 11,468,776$ (1,508,100)$ Feb-13 16,180 10,333,239$ 10,140,557$ (1,315,419)$ Mar-13 16,462 10,513,483$ 10,831,142$ (1,633,078)$ Apr-13 16,631 11,127,055$ 11,427,734$ (1,933,757)$ May-13 16,498 11,539,709$ 11,840,480$ (2,234,528)$ Jun-13 16,374 9,959,024$ 10,211,136$ (2,486,640)$

TOTAL 128,981,195$ 131,467,835$ 125,495,740$

(5,972,095)$


DTA SFY13 Forecast for October 2012

* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. Please note a child could receive multiple services.

- Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast w as prepared and may include late billing. **2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase Projection

- Blue: FY13 Actual/Forecast Expenditures

FY13 AppropriationSurplus/Deficiency

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Budget Spending

P lan Projection


Expenditures

YTD Variance (Original

Spending P lan)Jun-12 6,010 6,010 N/AJul-12 6,097 6,013 (84) 6,588,626$ 6,393,390$ 195,237$ Aug-12 6,071 5,961 (110) 6,865,945$ 6,519,273$ 541,908$ Sep-12 6,084 5,814 (270) 5,983,846$ 5,610,492$ 915,262$ Oct-12 6,084 5,640 (444) 6,876,242$ 6,285,024$ 1,506,481$ Nov-12 6,159 5,508 (651) 6,635,389$ 6,119,334$ 2,022,536$ Dec-12 6,188 6,321,780$ 5,890,239$ 2,454,077$ Jan-13 6,172 6,911,188$ 6,485,174$ 2,880,090$ Feb-13 6,216 6,341,848$ 5,663,119$ 3,558,820$ Mar-13 6,313 6,411,617$ 5,995,764$ 3,974,673$ Apr-13 6,314 6,717,704$ 6,285,138$ 4,407,239$ May-13 6,314 7,023,054$ 6,576,511$ 4,853,783$ Jun-13 6,541 6,562,792$ 6,114,120$ 5,302,455$

GRANTS 600,000$ 600,000$ TOTAL 79,840,032$ 74,537,577$

77,330,875$ 2,793,298$

- Blue : FY13 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures

**2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase P rojection


SUPPORTIVE SFY13 Forecast for November 2012

- Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing. * Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. P lease note a child could receive multiple services.

FY13 AppropriationSurplus/Deficiency

FY 2013 Supportive (3000-3050)

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(Am

ount

in

Thou

sand

s)

FY2013 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

Total Appropriation of $231.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants and $600K Reserve for Late BillingNovember 2012 Voucher Expenditures paid is $6,831,420Actual/Forecast includes projected cost for Infant Toddler Rate Increase

Gray : FY13 Appropriation (Vouchers, Contracts & Grants)

Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun $-

$20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

$100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 $240,000

$19

,227

$38

,910

$54

,622

$73

,065

$10

1,99

4

$10

8,84

0

$12

8,42

9

$14

5,56

4

$16

3,46

4

$18

2,00

8

$20

1,10

4

$21

9,15

7

$19

,359

$39

,013

$57

,955

$77

,304

$96

,282

$11

4,81

8

$13

3,95

9

$15

2,54

6

$17

1,23

0

$19

0,21

7

$20

9,30

5

$23

1,87

0

Actual/Forecast FY13 Budget

FY2013 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

10

(Am

ount

in

Thou

sand

s)


Gray : FY13 Appropriation


$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000

$100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 $140,000

$11

,003

$22

,415

$31

,852

$43

,426

$54

,813

$65

,548

$77

,017

$87

,157

$97

,988

$10

9,41

6

$12

1,25

7

$13

1,46

8

$10

,426

$21

,354

$31

,072

$41

,772

$52

,468

$62

,634

$73

,459

$83

,513

$93

,744

$10

4,57

4

$11

5,80

5

$12

5,49

6


FY2013 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

11

(Am

ount

in

Thou

sand

s)


Gray : : FY13 Appropriation


$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$6,

443

$13

,013

$18

,673

$25

,008

$31

,178

$37

,118

$43

,653

$49

,366

$55

,412

$61

,747

$68

,373

$74

,538

$6,

428

$13

,124

$18

,967

$25

,673

$32

,147

$38

,317

$45

,058

$51

,248

$57

,507

$64

,062

$70

,913

$77

,331


FY12/13 IE Contract Slots - Regular and Flex

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Total Awarded Slots is 14490 and Allowable Flex Slots is 857

27 Providers representing 32 contracts are Over 5% Flex (273)

**No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

RegularFilled

RegularOpen Flex Filled Flex Open Flex - Over

5%Flex -

Under 5%11/1/ 2011 12,801.5 1,637.5 640.0 214.0 (495.5) 710.511/29/2011 13,029.5 1,429.5 623.5 232.5 (473.0) 705.51/ 3/2012 12,937.5 1,531.5 596.5 264.0 (438.0) 701.51/ 31/ 2012 13,213.5 1,257.5 585.5 274.5 (437.0) 711.53/ 1/2012 13,271.5 1,194.5 579.5 279.5 (432.0) 711.53/ 30/ 2012 13,391.0 1,071.0 604.5 254.5 (441.5) 696.04/ 30/ 2012 13,388.0 1,074.0 640.5 218.5 (451.0) 669.55/ 29/ 2012 13,266.0 1,197.0 596.5 278.5 (426.0) 704.57/ 1/2012 13,305.0 1,447.0 513.5 345.5 (381.5) 727.08/ 1/2012 12,978.0 1,530.0 492.5 365.5 (368.5) 734.09/ 28/ 2012 12,434.0 2,057.0 427.0 430.5 (309.0) 739.510/30/2012 12,751.5 1,738.5 427.0 430.5 (303.5) 725.011/28/2012 12,881.5 1,608.5 426.5 421.5 (289.0) 719.51/ 1/2013 12,783.5 1,706.5 400.0 457.0 (273.0) 730.0

(2,000.0) -

2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0

10,000.0 12,000.0 14,000.0 16,000.0

New Children on Waitlist (Jan 2012 thru June 2012)

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Active Since Month Infant Preschool School Age

Toddler Unborn Total

06/01/2012 To 06/30/2012 353 419 657 317 134 1,880 05/01/2012 To 05/31/2012 394 470 574 361 155 1,954 04/01/2012 To 04/30/2012 374 391 446 356 148 1,715 03/01/2012 To 03/31/2012 425 468 461 383 160 1,897 02/01/2012 To 02/29/2012 353 392 355 321 149 1,570 01/01/2012 To 01/31/2012 340 367 362 298 120 1,487

Total 2,239 2,507 2,855 2,036 866 10,503

Note: This report shows the number of children who first time entered waitlist, as active child, within specified period of time and still active when the report is created.

New ChildrenonWaitlist (July 2012 thru Dec 2012)

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Active Since Month Infant Preschool School Age

Toddler Unborn Total

12/01/2012 To 12/31/2012 300 286 325 233 96 1,240 11/01/2012 To 11/30/2012 363 368 320 374 116 1,541 10/01/2012 To 10/31/2012 478 546 597 467 169 2,257 09/01/2012 To 09/30/2012 567 674 706 512 162 2,621 08/01/2012 To 08/31/2012 459 566 680 518 140 2,363 07/01/2012 To 07/31/2012 414 469 548 390 145 1,966

Total 2,581 2,909 3,176 2,494 828 11,988

Note: This report shows the number of children who first time entered waitlist, as active child, within specified period of time and still active when the report is created.

Waitlist Enrollment in 2012

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Age Group

Enrolled in Voucher/ Contract Kids

Avg days on waitlist before

enrollment

STD days on

Waitlist

Median Days on

Waitlist

Available funding

letters sent

Contract 745 147 147 106 537 Voucher 173 219 186 196 277 No Found 51 248 137 267 95

Total 969 165 158 128 909 Contract 1,260 238 201 204 1,070 Voucher 166 229 189 218 164 No Found 11 251 181 268 16

Total 1,437 237 199 212 1,250 Contract 3,344 221 206 174 3,687 Voucher 315 175 182 137 250 No Found 19 224 145 211 34

Total 3,678 217 204 171 3,971 Contract 1,803 154 195 63 894 Voucher 538 201 228 160 409 No Found 22 304 141 272 41

Total 2,363 166 204 81 1,344 Grand Total 8447

Infant

Toddler

Preschool

School Age

The children count is the sum from the first to the end of the month on specified month.

Caseload Waitlist Since 11/2011

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*Waiting List Category 11/30/11 Total

12/31/11 Total

1/31/12 Total

2/29/12 Total

3/31/12 Total

4/30/12 Total

5/31/12 Total

6/30/12 Total

7/31/12 Total

8/30/12 Total

9/30/12 Total

10/31/12 Total

11/30/12 Total

12/31/12 Total

Child of Foster Care 137 143 153 149 162 205 216 215 227 241 255 269 276 282

Child of Homeless family 144 158 181 186 201 315 342 374 410 435 460 482 520 536

Child of Military Personnel 50 54 56 54 57 68 69 71 71 71 79 95 101 105

Child of Teen Parent 174 187 195 234 247 312 343 355 380 406 427 461 477 481

Child w ith Special Needs 936 975 1,031 1,083 1,149 1,449 1,577 1,676 1,765 1,890 1,978 2,056 2,117 2,198

Continuity of Care: Prior Year Summer Only

66 83 124 122 123 123 120 135

Continuity of Care: Aging Out 285 280 279 288 289 301 310 312 315 388 405 404 409 411

Continuity of Care: Approved Break in Service

294 301 303 309 315 337 353 359 383 437 448 450 442 451

Continuity of Care: ARRA 126 125 125 143 137 159 162 159 160 153 151 148 146 149

Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation 67 73 84 86 90 118 123 134 142 168 182 171 182 186

Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract 5 8 8 8 10 16 17 18 19 17 20 20 25 27

Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral 102 100 108 112 114 184 204 226 233 245 247 255 269 279

Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract 20 20 20 22 21 23 23 23 23 27 31 32 32 32

General Priority 22,711 23,638 24,581 26,009 26,946 28,818 30,564 31,958 33,370 35,264 37,113 38,268 39,470 40,431

No Priority - Other Family Member 6 14 26 347 32 144 171 482 220 518 542 538 282 295

Grandparent/Guardian Families 327 329 337 31 361 461 482 631 504 616 590 561 541 547

Parent w ith Special Needs 496 509 531 570 551 657 681 193 734 235 253 268 805 806

Sibling: Contract 250 266 282 330 334 485 460 700 516 764 795 795 654 672

Sibling: Voucher 575 605 641 680 683 685 603 500 684 555 602 630 788 804

Summer only care 591 586 595 619 621 736 748 653 875 712 734 745 899 893

N/A - 656 636 944 623 867 876 888 556 541

Grand Total 27,296 28,371 29,536 31,260 32,320 36,129 38,150 40,066 41,778 44,131 46,311 47,659 49,111 50,261

* Waitlist Data as of September 2011 is reported from KinderWait** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state.

FY13 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee January 7, 2013

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Transcript of FY13 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee January 7, 2013