FY 2020-21 TRENDS AND SSUES - South Carolina General …...FY 2020-21 TRENDS AND ISSUES SENATE...
Transcript of FY 2020-21 TRENDS AND SSUES - South Carolina General …...FY 2020-21 TRENDS AND ISSUES SENATE...
FY 2020-21 TRENDS AND ISSUES
SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE
February 4, 2020
South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office
1000 Assembly Street
Rembert Dennis Building, Suite 421
Columbia, SC 29201
(803) 734-2265
www.rfa.sc.gov
02/04/2020 2
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Texa
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Cal
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Dak
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Mo
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De
law
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Sou
th D
ako
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Haw
aii
Kan
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Ham
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Mex
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Ala
ska
Mis
siss
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Wyo
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Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
Ve
rmo
nt
Co
nn
ecti
cut
We
st V
irgi
nia
Illin
ois
UNITED STATES CENSUS POPULATION Change From 2010 to 2018
Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 211A - lpw/4/29/19
02/04/2020 3
02/04/2020 4
02/04/2020 5
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
$22,000
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
(U.S
., B
illi
on
s o
f D
oll
ars
)
(S.C
., M
illi
on
s o
f D
oll
ars
)
Fiscal Year
Personal Income in the United States and South Carolina
S.C. Personal Income U.S. Personal Income
2000
SC = 1.17% of
2018
SC = 1.24% of
1990
SC = 1.15% of
1980
SC = 1.08% of
2010
SC = 1.20% of
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, S.C. Board of Economic Advisors
02/04/2020 6
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/260/01-02-20
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
SC PERSONAL INCOME ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH - ACTUALS AND ESTIMATESDec 2018 Series and Feb 2019 Estimates
Dec 2018 Data /
Feb 2019 Est 4.25%
02/04/2020 7
The call on the field was that SC Personal Income grew less than four percent. That data is under review.
02/04/2020 8
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/261/01-02-20
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
SC PERSONAL INCOME ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH - ACTUAL AND ESTIMATESDec 2018 Series v. Dec 2019 Series
Dec 2019 Series
Dec 2018 Series
FY 20 Est5.25%
FY 21 Est4.50%
02/04/2020 9
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
(U.S
. E
mp
loym
en
t, 0
00
's)
(S.C
. E
mp
loym
en
t, 0
00
's)
Calendar Year
Total Nonfarm Employment in the United States & South Carolina
SC Employment U.S. Employment
2000
SC = 1.40% of
US Employment
2018
SC = 1.44% of
US Employment
1990
SC = 1.39% of
1980
SC = 1.31% of
2010
SC = 1.39% of
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, S.C. Board of Economic Advisors
02/04/2020 10
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C., S.C. Board of Economic Advisors
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Min
ing
& L
og
gin
g
Co
nstr
uc
tio
n
Du
rab
le G
oo
ds
Ma
nu
factu
rin
g
No
nd
ura
ble
Go
od
s
Ma
nu
factu
rin
g
Wh
ole
sa
le T
rad
e
Reta
il T
rad
e
Tra
nsp
ort
ati
on
an
d
Uti
liit
es
Info
rma
tio
n
Fin
an
cia
l A
cti
vit
ies
Pro
fess
ion
al
an
d
Bu
sin
es
s S
erv
ices
Ed
uc
ati
on
an
d H
ealt
h
Serv
ices
Le
isu
re a
nd
Ho
sp
itali
ty
Serv
ices
Oth
er
Se
rvic
es
Fe
dera
l G
overn
men
t
Sta
te G
ove
rnm
en
t
Lo
cal
Go
ve
rnm
en
t
(Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
Fro
m O
ne
Ye
ar
Ag
o)
Growth in Nonfarm Employment By Sector in 2018South Carolina and the United States
South Carolina United States
South Carolina Nonfarm Employment Growth by Sector – Percent Change (2017-2018)
02/04/2020 11
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
$90.0
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19
ACCOMMODATIONS TAX
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1-21-20
02/04/2020 12
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY 2
00
9-1
0
FY 2
01
0-1
1
FY 2
01
1-1
2
FY 2
01
2-1
3
FY 2
01
3-1
4
FY 2
01
4-1
5
FY 2
01
5-1
6
FY 2
01
6-1
7 (
e)
FY 2
01
7-1
8 (
e)
FY 2
01
8-1
9 (
e)
FY 2
01
9-2
0 (
e)
FY 2
02
0-2
1 (
e)
FY 2
02
1-2
2 (
e)
FY 2
02
2-2
3 (
e)
FY 2
02
3-2
4 (
e)
FY 2
02
4-2
5 (
e)
FY 2
02
5-2
6 (
e)
FY 2
02
6-2
7 (
e)
FY 2
02
7-2
8 (
e)
SC RETIREMENT SYSTEM FUNDED RATIO
Funded Ratio 2017 and 2018 SCRS Funded Ratio (Since 2017 Act) Funded Ratio (Estimated for 2017 Act)
Source: SC Retirement Systems CAFR and Joint Committee on Pension Systems Review,197,GOS/FAR, 01/3/20
02/04/2020 13
1.29
1.03
0.86
0.6
0.47
0.4
0.34
0.26
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.37
0.6
0.79
0.95
1.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
e
20
20
e
SC UNEMPLOYMENT TRUST FUND STATUSRatio of Fund Balance to One Year Payout (Moderate Recession) - Actual vs Goal
Year End Balance USDOL /GA Goal
Goal 1.0
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1-9-20
02/04/2020 14
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1/16/20
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SC INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX LIABILITY AS A PERCENTAGE OF FEDERAL AGI
Tax ReformBefore Tax Reform
Data NotAvailable
02/04/2020 15
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
FY 0
8
FY 0
9
FY 1
0
FY 1
1
FY 1
2
FY 1
3
FY 1
4
FY 1
5
FY 1
6
FY 1
7
FY 1
8
FY 1
9
FY 2
0 e
.
FY 2
1 e
.
(Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs)
General Fund Revenue (Net) Property Tax Relief Trust Fund Homestead Exemption Shortfall
GENERAL FUND REVENUE With Trust Fund and Homestead Exemption Shortfall
Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs 213-LHJ 11/12/2019
02/04/2020 16
$119.0 $97.0
($183.7)
$4.5
$266.0
$434.8
$581.0 $537.9
($222.4)
($860.9)
($322.2)
$367.4 $314.3
$523.8
$108.4
$479.9
$326.3 $319.1
$547.5
$696.1
$436.0 $390.9
($1,000)
($800)
($600)
($400)
($200)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
FY 0
0
FY 0
1
FY 0
2
FY 0
3
FY 0
4
FY 0
5
FY 0
6
FY 0
7
FY 0
8
FY 0
9
FY 1
0
FY 1
1
FY 1
2
FY 1
3
FY 1
4
FY 1
5
FY 1
6
FY 1
7
FY 1
8
FY 1
9
FY 2
0 (
e)
FY 2
1 (
e)
($ in
Mill
ion
s)ANNUAL GROWTH IN GENERAL FUND REVENUE
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs - 169A/LHJ/11/12/19
02/04/2020 17
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 (e) FY 21 (e)
Fiscal Year
HOMESTEAD EXEMPTION FUND (TIER III)Revenues and Expenditures
1% Sales Tax Revenue Homestead Exemption and $2.5 Minimum
Note: Tier III Expenditure includes $2.5M minimum disbursements and lease purchase lawsuit revisions. Revenue projection based upon 11/08/2019 BEA forecast.
FY 21 Projected
Excess:$17.1 M
(Mill
ion
so
f D
olla
rs)
Source: SC Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office MKM-40- 11/08/19
02/04/2020 18
$81
$225
$292 $285$325
$278 $270 $263 $275 $273$300 $303
$325
$350
$407 $401
$437
$491$470 $470
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
FY 2
001
-02
FY 2
002
-03
FY 2
003
-04
FY 2
004
-05
FY 2
005
-06
FY 2
006
-07
FY 2
007
-08
FY 2
008
-09
FY 2
009
-10
FY 2
010
-11
FY 2
011
-12
FY 2
012
-13
FY 2
013
-14
FY 2
014
-15
FY 2
015
-16
FY 2
016
-17
FY 2
017
-18
FY 2
018
-19
FY 2
019
-20
(e)
FY 2
020
-21
(e)
(Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs)
TRANSFERS TO SC EDUCATION LOTTERY ACCOUNTSInception to FY 2020-21 BEA Estimate
General Proceeds Unclaimed Prizes Interest
Source: South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office RFA/265/jlw/01/22/2020
02/04/2020 19
$863.0
$350.0
$507.0
$162.0
$0.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
$700.0
$800.0
$900.0
$1,000.0
FY 2020-21 Budget Growth FY 2018-19 Surplus (NR) FY 2019-20 Projected Surplus (NR) FY 2019-20 Capital Reserve Fund (NR)
FY 2020-21 BUDGET PROCESS - AVAILABLE FUNDS
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1-8-20
02/04/2020 20
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/11-6-19
$8,000
$8,200
$8,400
$8,600
$8,800
$9,000
$9,200
$9,400
$9,600
$9,800
$10,000
$10,200
$10,400
FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
(Do
llars
in M
illio
ns)
FY 20 Budget Process
FY 2019-20 APPROPRIATIONS ACT EXPECTATIONSEstimated Revenue Growth (April 2019)
FY 19 EstimatedRevenue Growth
$288.7 million (Revised)
FY 20 EstimatedRevenue Growth
$336.0 million
02/04/2020 21
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/11-6-19
$8,000
$8,200
$8,400
$8,600
$8,800
$9,000
$9,200
$9,400
$9,600
$9,800
$10,000
$10,200
$10,400
FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
(Do
llars
in M
illio
ns)
FY 20 Budget Process FY 21 Budget Process
FY 2018-19 ACTUAL REVENUE GROWTHImpact to FY 2019-20 Appropriations Act Expectations (August 2019)
FY 19 Surplus$350 million*
FY 19 ActualRevenue Growth
$696.1 million
FY 19 Expected Revenue Growth
$288.7 million
02/04/2020 22
$8,000
$8,200
$8,400
$8,600
$8,800
$9,000
$9,200
$9,400
$9,600
$9,800
$10,000
$10,200
$10,400
FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
(Do
llars
in M
illio
ns)
FY 20 Budget Process FY 21 Budget Process
FY 2019-20 REVISED REVENUE ESTIMATEEffect of Actual FY 2018-19 Growth On FY 2019-20 Revenue Surplus (November 2019)
FY 19 Surplus$350 million
FY 20 Est Surplus$507 million
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/11/6/20
02/04/2020 23
$8,000
$8,200
$8,400
$8,600
$8,800
$9,000
$9,200
$9,400
$9,600
$9,800
$10,000
$10,200
$10,400
FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
(Do
llars
in M
illio
ns)
FY 20 Budget Process FY 21 Budget Process
FY 2020-21 BUDGET "CATCH-UP"Compounding Effect of FY 2018-19 Revenue Surplus on FY 2020-21 Budget (November 2019)
FY 21 Budget Growth
$863 million
FY 21 EstimatedRevenue Growth$390.9 million
$350 millionFY 19 Surplus
$507 millionFY 20 Surplus
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs/FAR/11-6-19
02/04/2020 24
$8,500
$8,600
$8,700
$8,800
$8,900
$9,000
$9,100
$9,200
$9,300
$9,400
$9,500
$9,600
$9,700
$9,800
$9,900
$10,000
$10,100
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Jun
FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20
(Do
llars
in M
illio
ns)
ROLLING FISCAL YEAR - TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE Actuals, Estimates, and Limits - FY 2018-19 to FY 2019-20
Actual Collections Estimates Lower Limit Upper Limit
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/2/3/20
02/04/2020 25
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/2-3-20
$200$220$240$260$280$300$320$340$360$380$400$420$440$460$480$500$520$540$560$580$600$620$640$660$680$700
Jul
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May
FY2010-11 FY2011-12 FY2012-13 FY2013-14 FY2014-15 FY2015-16 FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20
(Do
llars
in M
illio
ns)
ROLLING FISCAL YEAR - CORPORATE INCOME & LICENSE TAXESFY 2010-11 to FY 2019-20
Actual Collections
02/04/2020 26
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
$700,000,000
$800,000,000
K-12 Education, SpecialSchools & Cultural Total
Higher Education &Technical Schools Total
Health & Social ServicesTotal
Economic Development &Natural Resources Total
Judicial, Law Enforcement& Criminal Justice Total
Transportation &Regulatory Total
Legislative, Executive &Local Government Total
BUDGET REQUESTS FY 2020-21
Source: Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office/FAR/1-22-20
02/04/2020 27
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
FY 1
999
-00
FY 2
000
-01
FY 2
001
-02
FY 2
002
-03
FY 2
003
-04
FY 2
004
-05
FY 2
005
-06
FY 2
006
-07
FY 2
007
-08
FY 2
008
-09
FY 2
009
-10
FY 2
010
-11
FY 2
011
-12
FY 2
012
-13
FY 2
013
-14
FY 2
014
-15
FY 2
015
-16
FY 2
016
-17
FY 2
017
-18
FY 2
018
-19
FY 2
019
-20
(es
t)
FY 2
020
-21
(es
t)
EFA BASE STUDENT COST BSC Provided for Budget Compared to Final BSC
BSC Provided for Budget Final BSC
Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 267A - lpw/1/21/20
02/04/2020 28
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
FY 2
007
-08
FY 2
008
-09
FY 2
009
-10
FY 2
010
-11
FY 2
011
-12
FY 2
012
-13
FY 2
013
-14
FY 2
014
-15
FY 2
015
-16
FY 2
016
-17
FY 2
017
-18
FY 2
018
-19
FY 2
019
-20
(es
t)
FY 2
020
-21
(es
t)
SOUTH CAROLINA SCHOOL ENROLLMENTAnnual Growth by Type of School
Regular School Districts Charter School Districts Special School Districts Private Schools Home School
Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 267G - lpw/1/21/20
02/04/2020 29
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
FY 1
999
-00
FY 2
000
-01
FY 2
001
-02
FY 2
002
-03
FY 2
003
-04
FY 2
004
-05
FY 2
005
-06
FY 2
006
-07
FY 2
007
-08
FY 2
008
-09
FY 2
009
-10
FY 2
010
-11
FY 2
011
-12
FY 2
012
-13
FY 2
013
-14
FY 2
014
-15
FY 2
015
-16
FY 2
016
-17
FY 2
017
-18
FY 2
018
-19
FY 2
019
-20
(es
t)
FY 2
020
-21
(es
t)
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEACHER SALARY
S.C. Actual SE Avg. with Revisions
Note: The FY 2019-20 S.C. actual teacher salary figure is a preliminary figure from the S.C. Department of Education.
FY 2019-20 S.C. Actual teacher salary is $290 below the SE
average.
Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 267B - lpw/1/21/20
02/04/2020 30
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
$400,000,000
FY 1
999
-00
FY 2
000
-01
FY 2
001
-02
FY 2
002
-03
FY 2
003
-04
FY 2
004
-05
FY 2
005
-06
FY 2
006
-07
FY 2
007
-08
FY 2
008
-09
FY 2
009
-10
FY 2
010
-11
FY 2
011
-12
FY 2
012
-13
FY 2
013
-14
FY 2
014
-15
FY 2
015
-16
FY 2
016
-17
FY 2
017
-18
FY 2
018
-19
FY 2
019
-20
FY 2
020
-21
est
.
LOCAL GOVERNMENT FUNDComparison of Actual Funding to Statutory Formula
Actual LGF History Statutory FormulaNote: The Local Government Fund Appropriation is projected to increase from $233,740,696 in FY 2019-20 to $245,427,731 in FY 2020-21, which is a 5% increase.
Source: S.C Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 193/lpw/11/14/19
02/04/2020 31
-$500,000
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
HO
RR
Y
YOR
K
BER
KEL
EY
CH
AR
LEST
ON
GR
EEN
VIL
LE
LAN
CA
STER
DO
RC
HES
TER
BEA
UFO
RT
LEX
ING
TON
JASP
ER
SPA
RTA
NB
UR
G
SALU
DA
MA
RIO
N
KER
SHA
W
CA
LHO
UN
ALL
END
ALE
EDG
EFIE
LD
NEW
BER
RY
OC
ON
EE
BA
MB
ERG
AB
BEV
ILLE
BA
RN
WEL
L
HA
MP
TON
GEO
RG
ETO
WN
CH
ERO
KEE
FAIR
FIEL
D
LEE
CH
ESTE
R
UN
ION
DIL
LON
CLA
REN
DO
N
CO
LLET
ON
AN
DER
SON
MA
RLB
OR
O
MC
CO
RM
ICK
CH
ESTE
RFI
ELD
GR
EEN
WO
OD
PIC
KEN
S
LAU
REN
S
AIK
EN
WIL
LIA
MSB
UR
G
RIC
HLA
ND
DA
RLI
NG
TON
SUM
TER
FLO
REN
CE
OR
AN
GEB
UR
G
COUNTY LOCAL GOVERNMENT FUND CENSUS POPULATION IMPACT Funding With 2010 Census vs 2018 Estimated Population
Note: Local Government Fund estimates are based upon recurring funds of $233,740,696 as ratified by the General Assembly on May 22, 2019. The population figures are based on 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data and 2018 U.S. Census population estimates.
Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 211C - emm/06/03/19
02/04/2020 32
-$2,000,000
-$1,500,000
-$1,000,000
-$500,000
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
MUNICIPAL LOCAL GOVERNMENT FUND CENSUS POPULATION IMPACT Change in Funding with 2010 Census vs 2018 Estimated Population
218 Municipalities Lose Local Government Fund Revenue
53 Municipalities Gain Local GovernmentFund Revenue
Note: Local Government Fund estimates are based upon recurring funds of $233,740,696 as ratified by the General Assembly on May 22, 2019. The population figures are based on 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data and 2018 U.S. Census population estimates.
Source: S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office - 211G - emm/06/04/19
THANK YOU!
SOUTH CAROLINAREVENUE AND FISCAL AFFAIRS OFFICE
02/04/2020 33
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