FY 2006 DOE Wind and Hydropower Program Peer Review Denver Marriot West, Golden CO, USA
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Transcript of FY 2006 DOE Wind and Hydropower Program Peer Review Denver Marriot West, Golden CO, USA
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FY 2006 DOE Wind and Hydropower Program Peer ReviewDenver Marriot West,
Golden CO, USA May 9-11, 2006
Walt MusialLeader-Offshore Projects
National Wind Technology CenterNational Renewable Energy Laboratory
Offshore Technology Offshore Technology DevelopmentDevelopment
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DOE Offshore Wind Program:A Brief History
• LWST Phase II RFP modified to include offshore with a program goal of 5 cents/kWh by 2012.– (1 system development, 1 component, 3 conceptual)
• Horns Rev and Nysted wind farms commissioned
• August 2003, DOE Secretary Abraham requested white paper on feasibility of offshore wind.
• DOE program begins gathering deepwater information to address longer term US vision.
• June 2004, offshore projects develop problems; broader program indicated.
• DOE identifies multiple technology pathways
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Current Status of Offshore Industry
Offshore 804-MW of 60,000 MW+ world-wide – less than 2% 11-GW+ offshore is projected for 2010 Offshore has affected current onshore systems Offshore will continue to influence European markets.
Sweden3%
Netherlands2%
Ireland3%
Germany1%
Denmark53%
United Kingdom
38%
United States5%
France1%
Canada6%
Belguim2%
Poland1%
Finland2%
Denmark3%
Germany49%
Ireland6%
Netherlands2%
Sweden4%
Spain4%
United Kingdom15%
Current Future - 2010
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http://www.hamburg-messe.de/Scripte/allgemein_Info/Bestellung_DEWI-Studie/Studie_WindEnergy_en.htm?menu=Visitor
Predicted Growth of German Wind Energy Markets
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Land-based wind sites are not close to coastal load centers
Load centers are close to offshore wind sites Two market approach is needed
Graphic Credit: Bruce Bailey AWS Truewind
Why Offshore Wind in the US?
Graphic Credit: GE Energy
% area class 3 or above
US Population Concentration U.S. Wind Resource
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U.S. Offshore Wind Energy OpportunityU.S. Offshore Wind Energy Resource
Region 0 - 30 30 - 60 60 - 900 > 900New England 10.3 43.5 130.6 0.0Mid-Atlantic 64.3 126.2 45.3 30.0Great Lakes 15.5 11.6 193.6 0.0California 0.0 0.3 47.8 168.0Pacific Northwest 0.0 1.6 100.4 68.2Total 90.1 183.2 517.7 266.2
GW by Depth (m)
Resource Not Yet Assessed
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Wind Energy Cost Trends
1981: 40 cents/kWh
• Increased Turbine Size• R&D Advances• Manufacturing
Improvements
2006: 4 - 6 cents/kWh2012: 3.6 cents/kWh
2006: 9.5 cents/kWh
2014: 5 cents/kWh
• Multi-megawatt Turbines• High reliability systems• Infrastructure Improvements
Land-basedClass 4
OffshoreClass 6
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Coastal Energy Prices Are Higher with No Significant Indigenous Sources
0
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So u rc e : EIA Ce n su s D iv is io n
Elec
trici
ty P
rices
- A
ll Se
ctor
s (c
ents
/kW
h)
C o asta l S ta tes w ith S ig n ifica n t O ffsh o re Win d
In lan d S ta tes an d S ta tes With No S ig n ifica n t
O ffsh o re Win d
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DOE/NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program: Approach
Offshore Industry
European Wind Energy Experience
DOE Offshore Wind Energy
Program
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European Collaborations• NREL/RISØ Co-Operating Agents for International
Energy Agency Offshore Annex – XXIII.• Eight Active Countries
Annex 23 Operating AgentsRisø and NREL
Subtask 1 (Risø)Experience with critical deployment issues
Subtask 2 (NREL)Technical Research for deep water (>30m)
Research Area # 4Offshore Code Comparison
CollaborationUSA
Research Area # 1Ecological Issues and Regulations
NL
Research Area # 2Electrical System Integration
UK
Research Area # 3External Conditions, Layouts and
Design of Offshore Wind FarmsDK
Annex 23 Operating AgentsRisø and NREL
Subtask 1 (Risø)Experience with critical deployment issues
Subtask 2 (NREL)Technical Research for deep water (>30m)
Research Area # 4Offshore Code Comparison
CollaborationUSA
Research Area # 1Ecological Issues and Regulations
NL
Research Area # 2Electrical System Integration
UK
Research Area # 3External Conditions, Layouts and
Design of Offshore Wind FarmsDK
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Offshore Code Comparison Collaborative (OC3)
Baseline Model Dynamics Comparisons (8 codes)
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Horns Rev- Corner Turbine Enhancements?
Wind Direction
Offshore array modeling and analysis can open new siting options both offshore and onshore
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DOE/NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program: Approach
Offshore Industry
European Wind Energy Experience
DOE Offshore Wind Energy
Program
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Offshore Industry Collaborations are Essential
• MMS regulatory authority
• Offshore industry needs to diversify
• IEC insufficient for MMS/U.S. structural certification
(API standards)
• Infrastructure owned by offshore industry
• 50 years of offshore experience
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Joint Activities with Offshore Industry
Minerals Management Service• DOE/MMS Memorandum of
Understanding• Advisory Relationships Established• Proposed Rulemaking Comments• Scoping Meetings – Upcoming
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Joint Activities with Offshore Industry• Joint Industry Project
– Purpose: Determine requirements for offshore safety and certification.
– Participants: US Offshore Wind Developers, Offshore construction, DOE, MMS
• Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) – Wind Session 150 attended – Invited for 2007– High level of interest
• SeaCon Studies
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DOE/NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program: Approach
Offshore Industry
European Wind Energy Experience
DOE Offshore Wind Energy
Program
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Deep Water Wind Turbine DevelopmentOffshore Wind Technology Development
90.1 GW >500 GW 183.2 GW
DOE Goal: 30 to 60-m Class 6 winds
5 cents/kWh by 2016
DOE Goal: 0 to 30-m Class 6 winds 5 cents/kWh by 2014
Shallow Transitional Deep
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SupportingResearch
andTesting
(LaboratorySupport)
Figure 18. Offshore Wind Technology Research Efforts
Test Validation Design Basis
Public/ PrivateCost-SharedPrototypes
FieldVerification
With CommercialProjects
Concept Studies(SeaCON)
Off
shor
e In
dust
ry P
artn
ersh
ips
Off
shor
e In
dust
ry P
artn
ersh
ips
Field testing, cost modeling, and reliability and O&M mitigation research
Design tools, codes, standards, test expertise, analysis
Prototype design and testing support, contract management
Offshore industry expertise, focus and guidance
Offshore Technology Pathway Strategy
Laboratory SeaCon
(Subcontracts)
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Skeleton: Offshore Technology Development Pathway
Management and SupportSupporting Research and Testing
SeaConTest Bed Development
Public/Private PartnershipsField Verification
Yr 1 Yrs 8 to 17
Program Goal
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Current Offshore Wind Program Activities Enabling Research – Coupled Codes (Jonkman),
wakes, controls, rotors, drivetrains, reliability Resource Assessment – Offshore mapping, boundary
layer, wind/wave correlations Environmental Support – (Ram, Energetics) LWST II Subcontracts
o GE System Development - $27M/ $8M DOEo GE Ultralong blade- component (canceled)o Concept Marine Associates, MIT, AWS Truewind
Offshore Wind Collaborative (OWC) Testing Support and Facilities (Simms) TVP Arklow Banks SeaCon Studies
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Sea-Based Concept Studies (SeaCon)
• DOE/NREL sponsored studies underway:
Objectives:
– Use offshore O&G experience - form partnerships
– Define requirements for infrastructure and technology
– Narrow focus on best technology options
– Establish basis for test bed and system development
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Offshore Wind Cost ElementsOffshore turbine 33% of the life cycle cost vs. 59% onshore
ElectricalInfrastructure
15%
Operation andMaintenance
25%
SupportStructure
24%
Engineering and
Management3%
Turbine33%
derived from NREL cost model and CA-OWEE report 2001
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Offshore Economic Model DevelopmentOffshore Economic Model Development
Infrastructure Assessment
Fixed- Bottom and Floating
System Scaling
Fixed-bottom Support
Structures
Turbine Optimization (Fixed and Floating)
Grid and Transmission Options
Floating Platforms
O&M and Accessibility
Test Validation of Design Basis Detailed Design
for Test Bed
Environmental and Regulatory Factors Assessments
Life Cycle Cost Elements
Anchor StudyDesign Basis
SafetyStandards External
Conditions
Design BasisSafety
Standards External Conditions
Design Basis•Structural Safety•Offshore Standards •MET Ocean Conditions•Array Effects
Offshore Reliability
SeaCon Studies Connectivity
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Sea-Based Concept (SeaCon) Studies
1. Offshore cost and economic modeling2. US offshore infrastructure
assessment 3. Offshore reliability models4. Anchoring and mooring studies5. Turbine design optimization 6. Operation and maintenance 7. Offshore grid system 8. Fixed bottom support structures 9. Floating platforms10. Environmental assessments 11. External conditions 12. System scaling studies
ElectricalInfrastructure
15%
Operation andMaintenance
25%
SupportStructure
24%
Engineering and
Management3%
Turbine33%
BOS66%
Blades4%
Other Rotor2% Drive train
Nacelle18%
Marinization4%
Tower5%
Controls1%
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SeaCon Phases Phase 1 – Baseline parametric studies-FY06 Phase 2 – Component Scaling FY07 Phase 3 – System Optimization and Scaling FY08
0
1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Water Depth (meters)
Subs
truct
ure
Cos
t
Monopiles Gravity Foundations
Tripods, Jackets, Trusses
Floating Structures
Shallow Water Technology
Transitional Technology
Deep Water Technology
Phase 1 Example: What foundations work best at various depths?
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Transitional Depth Foundations 30-m to 60-m Depths
Tripod Tube Steel
Guyed Tube
Spaceframe, Jacket, or
Truss
Talisman Energy Concept
Suction Bucket
183.2 GW potential
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Floating Foundations >60-m Depths
Dutch tri-floater
Barge Spar Mono-hull TLP
Concept Marine
Associates Concrete
TLP
SWAY
>500 GW potential
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Strategies for Minimal Life Cycle Cost Reliability versus O&M
• Understand the relationship between OPEX and CAPEX
• Close the loop between design and operations– High reliability systems
– Design for low cost in-situ repairs
– Avoid collateral damage.
– Integrated CM and self diagnostics
• Benefit Offshore and Onshore
Designer
Operator
ElectricalInfrastructure
15%
Operation andMaintenance
25%
SupportStructure
24%
Engineering and
Management3%
Turbine33%
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40
60
80
100
406080100
Accessibility
Ava
ilabi
lity
Mature Offshore Turbine
Onshore Marinized Turbine
Onshore offshoreRemote/Severe
Offshore Turbine Availability
Increasing Site Severity and Distance from Shore
Engineering Challenge
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Offshore Component Costs are Low Relative to Total Project
BOS66%
Blades4% Other Rotor
2% Drive trainNacelle
18%
Marinization4%
Tower5%
Controls1%
All of the energy
Cost of Energy
Can we afford more expensive rotors?
Most of the loads 4% of the cost
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Offshore Resource Mapping Current 1000-GW• 0-5nm excluded• 5-20nm 67% exclusion• 20-50nm 33%
exclusion• Alaska and Hawaii
excluded• SC to Mexico excluded• Class 4 excluded • No state boundaries
Updates in progress New maps by AWS Truewind Exclusions not assumed Class 4 - 7 Resource by 10-m depths All States (except FL, AL) State boundaries Distance from Shore
0-3nm – State waters 3-6nm – MMS/State zone 6-12nm – MMS High Viewshed 12-50nm – Low Viewshed
Wind/Wave mapping for site specific design
Bottom conditions Exclusion criteria
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0
1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Rotor Size
Cos
t per
MW
SubstructureEnergy per Area
Turbine Costs
Installation
Operation and Maintenance
Grid and Electrical Infrastructure
1
SeaCon Phase 2 and 3: Offshore Scaling and System Optimization – How Big?
High capacity offshore infrastructure enables larger
machines.
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Offshore Design Drivers
Enablers for larger turbines
Lightweight structural materials
Load reduction/Increased energy
Reliability and predictive maintenance Verification and testing System weight reduction Onshore benefits
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Summary• Near term US offshore projects needed• Environmental, regulatory, and public perceptions are drivers in US.• Significant R&D is necessary to lower costs• Offshore O&G industry experience and collaborations are essential • Three technology pathways identified• Shallow water pathway has begun
Wind can potentially supply 20% of electric energy in United States