FX Strategy 21 Nov 2016 PvB - Standard Chartered€¦ · 11 Nov 2016 to 18 Nov 2016 % Weekly...

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. This document is provided for general circulation and information purposes only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or financial

situation of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared as investment advice for such person(s). ‘Person’ includes a corporation, co-operative society, trade union, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership and any other business entity. Prospective investors should seek advice

from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment, taking into account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment.

1

fx strategy fx | 21 November 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

USD rally looking stretched short term We believe the post-election USD rally is running ahead of fundamentals. So far, markets have fully priced-in a December 2016 rate hike

and expect a significant fiscal stimulus in 2017. In our view, some of these assumptions may get tested fairly soon. Against this backdrop, we are not keen to chase the current USD rally; technically, it looks heavily overbought against most major peers. In

particular, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are near important support and resistance levels, respectively, which suggest short-term consolidation ahead is possible. Both technicals and fundamentals point towards a weaker GBP/USD near term, though.

The week ahead is generally light on key economic data. However, markets are likely to assess the FOMC minutes and US housing and durable goods data. Instead, greater attention is likely to given to Euro area political developments, with another round of the French primaries due this week. Recently, concerns regarding the rise of Eurosceptic parties have risen and have weighed on the EUR.

Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) Summary comments Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2EUR/USD Neutral Oversold technical indicators ahead of key support 1.046 1.054 1.060 1.085 1.095USD/JPY Neutral Bullish trend intact, but technicals overbought 106.41 107.50 111.09 111.45 115.00AUD/USD Neutral A new bear term could be developing, 0.700 key 0.700 0.714 0.732 0.744 0.751USD/SGD Neutral Break of 1.400 supports bullish bias, but RSI stretched 1.384 1.396 1.428 1.436 1.444GBP/USD Bearish Retreat from 50DMA confirms bearish bias 1.145 1.208 1.234 1.256 1.280XAU/USD Neutral Expect sideways consolidation above 1,200 for now 1171 1200 1210 1250 1280NZD/USD Neutral At a key support region, 0.695 key 0.689 0.695 0.700 0.720 0.740EUR/GBP Neutral Sideways consolidation likely above 0.845 0.835 0.845 0.859 0.872 0.888USD/CNH Bullish Sustaining above all-time high key for bullish trend 6.750 6.800 6.916 6.920 6.950USD/CHF Neutral Break above 1.000 suggests bullish bias, but technicals stretched 0.985 1.000 1.010 1.033 1.05USD/CAD Bullish Upside bias remains intact above 1.300 1.310 1.328 1.348 1.360 1.450AUD/NZD Neutral Technical indicators suggest continued sideways consolidation 1.023 1.035 1.045 1.053 1.077

Darker shade indicates more important technical levels

21 November 2016 | fx strategy

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 2

Contents USD rally looking stretched short term 1 12 month outlook 3 2-4 week outlook 3 FX trade ideas 3 Week in Review 4 EUR/USD 5 USD/JPY 6 AUD/USD 7 USD/SGD 8 GBP/USD 9 XAU/USD 10 NZD/USD 11 Interest Rate Differentials 15 FX Implied Volatility 16 Consensus forecasts 17 Disclosure Appendix 19

Steve Brice Chief Investment Strategist Rajat Bhattacharya Investment Strategist

Clive McDonnell Head, Equity Investment Strategy Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist

Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy Tariq Ali, CFA Investment Strategist

Adi Monappa, CFA Head, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Abhilash Narayan Investment Strategist

Audrey Goh, CFA Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Tu-Vi Nguyen Investment Strategist

Arun Kelshiker, CFA Executive Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions

Trang Nguyen Analyst, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions



12 month outlook 2-4 week outlook

Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) EUR/USD Neutral USD/JPY Neutral AUD/USD Neutral USD/SGD Neutral GBP/USD Bearish XAU/USD Neutral NZD/USD Neutral EUR/GBP Neutral USD/CNH Bullish USD/CHF Neutral USD/CAD Bullish AUD/NZD Neutral

FX trade ideas

Initiation date Pairs Position Entry price

Current price Target Stop

26/8/2016 AUD/NZD Long 1.035 1.045 1.120 1.035Please see the corresponding FX trade note for more details on each trade idea

Currency 12 month

EUR

JPY

GBP

AUD

NZD

CAD

CHF

CNY

TWD

KRW

SGD

MYR

IDR

INR

THB

PHP

Bullish Neutral Bearish

Please see the latest Global Market Outlook for more details Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered



Week in Review

Weekly performance of core pairs 11 Nov 2016 to 18 Nov 2016

Weekly performance of supplementary pairs 11 Nov 2016 to 18 Nov 2016

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Pairs Week in Review

EUR/USD EUR/USD ended down (-2.46%). The pair continued to fall for another week amid a further uptrend in the USD. Higher expectations of a Fed rate hike, amid rising US inflation and hawkish Fed rhetoric, supported the USD. Euro area GDP, however, was in line with expectations.

USD/JPY USD/JPY ended up (3.99%). The JPY continued to fall as the USD extended its gains. Fed chair Yellen’s testimony suggested a strong case for a December rate hike, providing further impetus.

AUD/USD AUD/USD ended down (-2.76%). The AUD fell amid a surge in US treasury yields, reducing the yield premium offered by Australian yields. Iron ore prices, though, pared some recent gains.

USD/SGD USD/SGD ended up (0.97%). The SGD fell to the lowest levels since Feb 2016, as sentiment towards Asian currencies remained poor amid a surge in the broad USD and US treasury yields.

GBP/USD GBP/USD was down (-2.02%). The GBP fell remained after remaining largely resilient against the USD in the previous week. UK inflation (both headline and core) was weaker than expected, increasing indications of an impending economic slowdown.

XAU/USD XAU/USD was down (-1.61%). Gold fell as US 10-year yields continued to surge, ahead of the rise in US inflation expectations.

NZD/USD NZD/USD was down (-1.68%). NZD/USD fell amid further narrowing of New Zealand interest rate spreads with the USD, amid surging US yields. Moreover, higher volatility and weak sentiment towards Asian assets likely weighed-in.

-1.68%

-1.61%

-2.02%

0.97%

-2.76%

3.99%

-2.46%

-4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00%

NZD/USD

XAU/USD

GBP/USD

USD/SGD

AUD/USD

USD/JPY

EUR/USD

%

-1.48%

-0.27%

2.24%

1.21%

-0.54%

-3.00% -1.00% 1.00% 3.00%

AUD/NZD

USD/CAD

USD/CHF

USD/CNH

EUR/GBP

%



EUR/USD We remain neutral amid oversold technical indicators and ahead of a key technical support area.

Neutral Key technical indicators*

Technical Indicator Action

RSI (14) Buy

Oscillator (5,10) Sell

MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Sell

Momentum (14) Sell Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1.095 MediumResistance 1 1.085 MediumSpot 1.060 –Support 1 1.054 HighSupport 2 1.046 High

Key Signposts

ECB's Draghi speaks at European Parliament

Nov-21

PMI composite (flash) Nov-23

* Please see Appendix for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Fundamental Overview The EUR has continued to fall amid a stronger USD and a surge in US Treasury yields.

Following Fed chair Yellen’s comments, markets appear to be fully pricing a December 2016 rate hike. However, given the speed of the recent USD rally, we are wary of the possibility that USD rally might have run ahead of fundamentals in the short term. Markets are likely to pay more attention to Euro area political developments.

Technical Analysis Last week’s break below important support levels have further increased bearish momentum

in the pair. However, a heavily oversold RSI and proximity to a key support region could limit downside for now. The Dec 2015 low at 1.054 and the Jan 2015 low at 1.046 are key levels that would need to be breached to indicate a renewed medium-term downtrend.

Oversold technical indicators ahead of key support


1.054

1.085

1.00

1.03

1.06

1.09

1.12

1.15

1.18

Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Nov-16

EUR

/USD

EUR/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



USD/JPY We remain neutral amid stretched technical indicators and excessive USD optimism.



RSI (14) Sell

Oscillator (5,10) Buy

MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Buy

Momentum (14) Buy Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 115.00 HighResistance 1 111.45 HighSpot 111.09 –Support 1 107.50 HighSupport 2 106.41 Medium

Key Signposts

Japan CPI and core CPI Nov-24


Fundamental Overview The JPY has been falling amid a strong USD rally, but has also underperformed most other

major peers. This, we believe, could be due to previously excessive net-long JPY positioning, which is now unwinding. Further, BoJ policy of limiting Japan’s 10-year yield at 0% might be bearing fruit as yields in other major bond markets track higher. Hence, further JPY losses from here likely depend on how much further US yields can extend.

Technical Analysis The pair breached key technical resistance levels and is now at the highest levels since May

2016. Here, the region from where a previous bear-rally was initiated could limit the current uptrend, especially given stretched momentum indicators. On the downside, the bullish trend is likely to remain intact as long as the pair remains above 107.50.

Bullish trend intact, but technicals overbought


107.50

111.45

9598

101104107110113116119122125


USD

/JPY

USD/JPY 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



AUD/USD We remain neutral, awaiting more clarity on Trump’s policies, before taking a directional view.



RSI (14) Buy


MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Sell


Resistance 2 0.751 MediumResistance 1 0.744 MediumSpot 0.732Support 1 0.714 MediumSupport 2 0.700 High

Key Signposts

No major data releases


Fundamental Overview The AUD extended losses amid a narrowing rate spreads with the US and rising currency

volatility. Markets appear on edge amid uncertainty regarding the new US administration’s policies towards Asia. On the other hand, the surge in iron ore prices is positive for the AUD in the medium term.

Technical Analysis The break below the Jan 2016 uptrend line and the 200DMA suggest a deeper correction may

be forthcoming. This is the first time the pair has convincingly broken below its 200DMA and could signal a new medium-term bear trend. The next key support is likely to come in at 0.714 (May 2016 low), a breach of which will likely open room to the psychological 0.700.

A new bear term could be developing, 0.700 key


0.714

0.744

0.68

0.71

0.74

0.77

0.80


AUD

/USD

AUD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



USD/SGD We remain neutral amid risks of further short-term upside following a break of 1.40.



RSI (14) Sell

Oscillator (5,10) Buy

MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Buy


Resistance 2 1.444 HighResistance 1 1.436 MediumSpot 1.428 –Support 1 1.396 HighSupport 2 1.384 Medium

Key Signposts

Singapore industrial production

25-Nov


Fundamental Overview Sentiment towards Asian currencies has remained weak following the US election results and

uncertainty regarding the new administration’s policies towards Asia and trade. Moreover, the surge in US yields and higher currency volatility has reduced the allure of Asian assets in general, which have resulted in recent capital outflows. Basket-driven currencies such as the SGD are likely to continue to follow these regional trends.

Technical Analysis With a strong break and sustained rally above 1.400, the door is now open to test the Jan

2016 high of 1.444. Momentum indicators, on the other hand, point to the possibility of short-term consolidation. We would need to see the pair break below 1.396 to negate the recent bullish bias.

Break of 1.400 supports bullish bias, but RSI stretched


1.396

1.436

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.40

1.42

1.44

1.46


USD

/SG

D

USD/SGD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



GBP/USD We turn bearish (from neutral) as technical indicators and weaker data suggest further downside.

Bearish Key technical indicators*


RSI (14) Neutral


MACD (12,26,9) Neutral

ADX (14) Sell


Resistance 2 1.280 HighResistance 1 1.256 MediumSpot 1.234 –Support 1 1.208 HighSupport 2 1.145 High

Key Signposts

Chancellor of the Exchequer presents the Autumn Statement

Nov-23

Q3 GDP Nov-25


Fundamental Overview The GBP rallied after a UK court decision has now at least opened the prospect of a ‘soft’

Brexit (the case now in Supreme court). Excessively net-short GBP positioning may have also been supportive. However, we believe even a ‘soft’ Brexit does not mitigate medium-term risks to the economy including weak balance of payment fundamentals.

Technical Analysis The retreat from the 50DMA suggests the rebound remains fragile. Moreover price-

momentum divergence now suggests the pair is developing a bearish bias. A break below 1.208 is likely to confirm a deeper correction towards 1.145 (low set during Oct flash crash).

Retreat from 50DMA confirms bearish bias


1.208

1.256

1.151.201.251.301.351.401.451.501.551.60


GB

P/U

SD

GBP/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



XAU/USD We remain neutral as gold remains above the important support of 1,200.

Neutral Key technical indicators and forecast*


RSI (14) Buy


MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Sell


Resistance 2 1280 MediumResistance 1 1250 HighSpot 1210 –Support 1 1200 HighSupport 2 1171 Medium

Key Signposts

FOMC meeting minutes 23-Nov


Fundamental Overview Gold came under pressure following the US election amid a sharp rise in US Treasury yields

which exceeded the pick-up in inflation expectations (US net-of-inflation yields, measured by TIPS bonds, rose). However, for Treasury yields gains to accelerate, we would need to see the Fed turn significantly more aggressive, which we do not expect at least in the short term.

Technical Analysis Failure to breach the important support level at 1,200 suggests a possible sideways

consolidation. On the other hand, a break above 1,250 is needed to revitalise bullish momentum in the pair. A break below 1,200 could open up more downside towards 1,171 (38.2% retracement).

Expect sideways consolidation above 1200 for now


1,200

1,250

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400


XAU

/USD

XAU/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



NZD/USD We remain neutral, awaiting more clarity on Trump’s policies before taking a firm view.

Neutral Key technical indicators and forecast*


RSI (14) Sell


MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Neutral


Resistance 2 0.740 HighResistance 1 0.720 HighSpot 0.700 –Support 1 0.695 HighSupport 2 0.689 Medium

Key Signposts

New Zealand trade balance

24-Nov


Fundamental Overview As expected, the NZD fell following the US elections amid weak sentiment towards Asian

currencies, a surge in US yields and a rally in the USD. Going forward, we would need to see a significant shift in the Fed’s policy stance of modest rate hikes or a significant fall in commodity prices to justify a firmly negative outlook for the NZD.

Technical Analysis The break below the upward sloping trendline from the Jan low suggests initiation of a new

medium-term bearish trend. However, we look for a break of 0.695 (neckline of a possible head-and-shoulders technical pattern) as confirmation of a new bearish trend. Alternatively, a breach of 0.732 (convergence of 50-100DMA) could negate the bearish bias.

At a key support region, 0.695 key


0.695

0.720

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75


NZD

/USD

NZD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS

Sideways consolidation likely above 0.845 View

Neutral

A break of 0.845 needed to justify further downside.

Soft-Brexit possibility could suggest a deeper pullback but would be unlikely to sustain over the medium term.

Sustaining above all-time high key for bullish trend View

Bullish

We remain bullish. The break above earlier highs can potentially open up significant upside.

We expect modest CNY weakness to continue over the medium term amid a continued monetary easing bias by China authorities.


0.845

0.872

0.68

0.73

0.78

0.83

0.88

0.93


EUR

/GB

P

EUR/GBP 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA

6.800

6.920

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.0


USD

/CN

H

USD/CNH 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont’d)

Break above 1.000 suggests bullish bias, but technicals stretched View

Neutral

The strong convincing break above 1.000 suggests a new medium-term trend.

However, in the short term, the USD rally may be stretched and a consolidation is likely.

Upside bias remains intact above 1.300 View

Bullish

The short-term upside risks are intact following the break through the important 1.350 resistance.

A bigger than expected up-move in oil prices remains a key risk to a bullish USD/CAD outlook.


1.000

1.033

0.93

0.96

0.99

1.02

1.05


USD

/CH

F

USD/CHF 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA

1.328

1.360

1.22

1.27

1.32

1.37

1.42

1.47


USD

/CAD

USD/CAD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont’d)

Technical indicators suggest a pause in the bull-rally View

Neutral

Break below 50-100DMA suggests a bearish technical bias. However, key support at 1.031-35 could protect downside.

We do not believe NZD outperformance over the AUD is sustainable over the medium term. Likely further RBNZ rate cuts and weaker dairy prices could put NZD under pressure.


1.035

1.053

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15


AUD

/NZD

AUD/NZD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



Interest Rate Differentials

EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD

GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

-1.50

-1.30

-1.10

-0.90

-0.70

-0.50

-0.30

-0.10

Nov-13 Aug-14 May-15 Feb-16 Nov-16EU

R/U

SD

%

EUR-USD 2 year interest rate differentialEUR/USD (RHS)

85

95

105

115

125

135

0.100.250.400.550.700.851.001.151.301.45

Nov-13 Aug-14 May-15 Feb-16 Nov-16

USD

/JPY

%

USD-JPY 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)USD/JPY

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0


AU

D/U

SD

%

AUD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)AUD/USD (RHS)

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


GB

P/U

SD

%

GBP-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)GBP/USD (RHS)

0.62

0.72

0.82

0.92

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5


NZD

/USD

%

NZD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)NZD/USD (RHS)

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

-1.3

-0.7

-0.2

0.3

0.8


USD

/CA

D

%

USD-CAD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)USD/CAD (RHS)



FX Implied Volatility

EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD

GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD


3.5

5.5

7.5

9.5

11.5

13.5

15.5


%

EUR 1M implied vol

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17


%

JPY 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


%

AUD 1M implied vol

3

8

13

18

23

28

33

Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16

%

GBP 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


%

NZD 1M implied vol

3

5

7

9

11

13

15


%

CAD 1M implied vol



Consensus forecasts

Consensus Forecasts Spot Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017

EUR/USD 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.09

USD/JPY 111.10 105.00 107.00 108.00 109.00

AUD/USD 0.73 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.73

NZD/USD 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.69

USD/SGD 1.43 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.42

GBP/USD 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.21 1.24

USD/CAD 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.35 1.33

USD/CHF 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02




TECHNICAL INDICATORS – EXPLANATORY APPENDIX

RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold.

Stochastic Oscillator – The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20%, while a reading of 80% is considered overbought.

MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa.

ADX (Average Directional Index) – This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal.

Momentum Indicator – The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak.


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Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within Standard Chartered Bank, (“SCB”) particularly those of the Global Research function. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. United Kingdom: Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is an authorised financial services provider (licence number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC. Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities. This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons. Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be). This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations.


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SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) from your use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents. SCB, and/or a connected company, may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities, currencies or financial instruments referred to on this document or have a material interest in any such securities or related investment, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments. Accordingly, SCB, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this document. This document must not be forwarded or otherwise made available to any other person without the express written consent of SCB. Copyright: Standard Chartered Bank 2016. Copyright in all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of, and may only be reproduced with permission of an authorised signatory of, Standard Chartered Bank. Copyright in materials created by third parties and the rights under copyright of such parties are hereby acknowledged. Copyright in all other materials not belonging to third parties and copyright in these materials as a compilation vests and shall remain at all times copyright of Standard Chartered Bank and should not be reproduced or used except for business purposes on behalf of Standard Chartered Bank or save with the express prior written consent of an authorised signatory of Standard Chartered Bank. All rights reserved. © Standard Chartered Bank 2016.

THIS IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED BY A RESEARCH UNIT.

FX Strategy 21 Nov 2016 PvB - Standard Chartered€¦ · 11 Nov 2016 to 18 Nov 2016 % Weekly...

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