FX Strategy 12 Dec 2016 PvB - Standard Chartered · 12/12/2016 · USD/SGD Neutral Consolidation...

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. This document is provided for general circulation and information purposes only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or financial

situation of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared as investment advice for such person(s). ‘Person’ includes a corporation, co-operative society, trade union, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership and any other business entity. Prospective investors should seek advice

from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment, taking into account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment.

1

fx strategy fx | 12 December 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

Focus on Fed’s forward guidance The FOMC statement this week is critical for validation of recent optimism in the US rates market and how the Fed’s outlook is likely to be

affected by the recent gains in the USD. Hence, a Fed decision to hike rates (which will not surprise markets) is less important than the forward guidance the Fed may provide. We believe the Fed is unlikely to drastically alter its stance of signalling a modest rate hiking cycle, which could provide a catalyst for a pullback in US yields.

Against this backdrop, we are wary of chasing the USD higher and see potential for a short-term consolidation. With the improving commodity price outlook, we believe the best way to express this view is through long AUD, NZD and CAD.

In the week ahead, policy statements from the Fed and BoE will be closely followed; jobs data in Australia and the UK and China industrial production data are also likely to be key.

Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) Summary comments Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2 EUR/USD Neutral Breach needed of critical support for further downside 1.046 1.054 1.056 1.068 1.085 USD/JPY Bearish Fed statement could temper US rates, support JPY 110.00 112.50 115.41 116.00 118.00 AUD/USD Bullish Potential to extend upwards if 0.731 support remains intact 0.714 0.731 0.746 0.755 0.777 USD/SGD Neutral Consolidation takes hold, breach of 1.415 or 1.437 needed 1.400 1.415 1.431 1.437 1.444 GBP/USD Bullish Support line (1.25) now key to maintaining upside bias 1.230 1.250 1.259 1.280 1.300 XAU/USD Neutral Slowing momentum indicators ahead of Fed policy review 1123 1143 1158 1200 1250 NZD/USD Bullish Rebound above key support suggests potential to extend 0.695 0.706 0.715 0.720 0.740 EUR/GBP Neutral Consolidation expected around key support (0.83) 0.812 0.830 0.839 0.850 0.863 USD/CNH Neutral Sideways consolidation continues to develop, USD outlook key 6.820 6.855 6.930 6.965 7.000 USD/CHF Neutral Break of 1.02 needed to signal further uptrend 0.985 1.000 1.018 1.020 1.033 USD/CAD Bearish CAD continues to rally on the back of oil prices 1.280 1.310 1.312 1.324 1.359 AUD/NZD Neutral Consolidation remains intact above 1.035 1.023 1.035 1.043 1.055 1.077

Darker shade indicates more important technical levels

12 December 2016 | fx strategy

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 2

Contents Focus on Fed’s forward guidance 1 12 month outlook 3 2-4 week outlook 3 FX trade ideas 3 Week in Review 4 EUR/USD 5 USD/JPY 6 AUD/USD 7 USD/SGD 8 GBP/USD 9 XAU/USD 10 NZD/USD 11 Interest Rate Differentials 15 FX Implied Volatility 16 Consensus forecasts 17 Disclosure Appendix 19

Steve Brice Chief Investment Strategist Rajat Bhattacharya Investment Strategist

Clive McDonnell Head, Equity Investment Strategy Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist

Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy Tariq Ali, CFA Investment Strategist

Adi Monappa, CFA Head, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Abhilash Narayan Investment Strategist

Audrey Goh, CFA Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Tu-Vi Nguyen Investment Strategist

Arun Kelshiker, CFA Executive Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions

Trang Nguyen Analyst, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions



12 month outlook 2-4 week outlook

Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) EUR/USD Neutral USD/JPY Bearish AUD/USD Bullish USD/SGD Neutral GBP/USD Bullish XAU/USD Neutral NZD/USD Bullish EUR/GBP Neutral USD/CNH Neutral USD/CHF Neutral USD/CAD Bearish AUD/NZD Neutral

FX trade ideas

Initiation date Pairs Position Entry price

Current price Target Stop

26/8/2016 AUD/NZD Long 1.035 1.043 1.120 1.035 Please see the corresponding FX trade note for more details on each trade idea

Currency 12 month

EUR

JPY

GBP

AUD

NZD

CAD

CHF

CNY

TWD

KRW

SGD

MYR

IDR

INR

THB

PHP

Bullish Neutral Bearish

Please see the latest Global Market Outlook for more details Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered



Week in Review

Weekly performance of core pairs 2 Dec 2016 to 9 Dec 2016

Weekly performance of supplementary pairs 2 Dec 2016 to 9 Dec 2016

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Pairs Week in Review

EUR/USD EUR/USD was down (-0.97%). The EUR fell after the ECB extended its bond buying program by 9 months, albeit at a reduced monthly pace. Weaker German data also likely weakened sentiment.

USD/JPY USD/JPY ended up (1.59%). The pair breached a new high last week, rising past the key 115 level. A string of US economic reports likely raised confidence in the strength of the US economy and lifted prospects of a Fed rate lift-off.

AUD/USD AUD/USD ended down (-0.11%). Last week, a largely neutral policy outlook by the RBA may have restricted downside in the AUD. However, weak GDP and trade data likely kept AUD sentiment weak.

USD/SGD USD/SGD was up (0.80%). Last week, losses in the EUR and the CNY, Singapore’s key trade partner currencies, likely weighed on the SGD

GBP/USD GBP/USD was down (-1.23%). Last week, disappointing manufacturing figures and remarks by the EU’s chief negotiator on the UK’s deadline to negotiate ‘Brexit’ likely weighed on the GBP.

XAU/USD XAU/USD was down (-1.49%). Last week, a rally in the USD and a risk-on mood in global equity markets likely dragged on the USD-denominated safe haven.

NZD/USD NZD/USD was down (-0.07%). Last week, concerns over New Zealand PM John Key’s unexpected resignation and caution ahead of an impending Fed meeting likely dragged on the NZD.

-0.07%

-1.49%

-1.23%

0.80%

-0.11%

1.59%

-0.97%

-2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00%

NZD/USD

XAU/USD

GBP/USD

USD/SGD

AUD/USD

USD/JPY

EUR/USD

%

-0.03%

-0.85%

0.59%

0.84%

-0.02%

-1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00%

AUD/NZD

USD/CAD

USD/CHF

USD/CNH

EUR/GBP

%



EUR/USD We remain neutral ahead of a key technical support region and slowing momentum indicators

Neutral Key technical indicators*

Technical Indicator Action

RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Sell

MACD (12,26,9) Neutral

ADX (14) Sell

Momentum (14) Sell Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1.085 Medium Resistance 1 1.068 Medium Spot 1.056 – Support 1 1.054 High Support 2 1.046 High

Key Signposts

Fed rate decision Dec-14 PMI composite (services, manufacturing) – flash

Dec-15

Euro area trade balance Dec-16

* Please see Appendix for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Fundamental Overview The EUR has been under pressure for two reasons: 1) a sharp rise in US yields has widened

rate differentials in favour of the US; 2) uneasiness regarding European politics and the rise of Eurosceptic parties. The ECB’s decision last week to extend asset purchases, albeit at a more modest pace, has been seen as a fairly dovish outcome and has put downward pressure on short-term Euro area yields, which is negative for the EUR.

Technical Analysis Failure to sustain above the 1.068 resistance region (upward sloping trend-line from the 2015

low) suggests downside is likely to prevail for the pair. However, we remain cautious given a critical support region (Jan and Dec 2015 low) is nearby, which has held for a considerable period. Also, slowing momentum indicators suggest limited selling appetite at these levels.

Breach needed of critical support for further downside


1.054

1.068

1.00

1.03

1.06

1.09

1.12

1.15

1.18

Dec-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Dec-16

EUR

/USD

EUR/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



USD/JPY We remain bearish, despite bullish technicals, amid expectations of USD consolidation

Bearish Key technical indicators*


RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Neutral


ADX (14) Buy

Momentum (14) Neutral Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 118.00 Low Resistance 1 116.00 Medium Spot 115.41 – Support 1 112.50 Medium Support 2 110.00 Medium

Key Signposts

Tankan large mfg index and outlook

Dec-13

Fed rate decision Dec-14


Fundamental Overview The JPY has been falling against the backdrop of surging US treasury yields while those in

Japan remained capped. We believe a short-term consolidation in US 10-year yields is likely given that markets may look for validation for some of the excessive optimism on inflation expectations and policy rate normalisation. The Fed policy announcement this week is key and guidance may temper some of the optimism on US rates which would be JPY supportive.

Technical Analysis The recent breach of the critical 115 level has reinvigorated the rally with significant potential

for extension higher. A deeper rally is now likely to focus on the 120 region with 116 and 118 as intermediate resistance levels. Having said that, we are wary of slowing momentum indicators, which continue to highlight risks of a short-term consolidation.

Fed statement could temper US rates, support JPY


112.50

116.00

9598

101104107110113116119122125


USD

/JPY

USD/JPY 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



AUD/USD We remain bullish amid a stabilising USD and improving outlook for commodities

Bullish Key technical indicators*


RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Buy

MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Neutral

Momentum (14) Neutral Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 0.777 Medium Resistance 1 0.755 High Spot 0.746 Support 1 0.731 Medium Support 2 0.714 Medium

Key Signposts

China industrial production

Dec-13

Australia unemployment rate and jobs change

Dec-15


Fundamental Overview The AUD has remained resilient to USD strength recently amid improved sentiment on

commodities. Recent comments made by Saudi authorities regarding commitment to implement cuts and non-OPEC member’s willingness to cooperate are further supportive for commodities outlook. Last week’s RBA policy statement confirms a neutral policy stance.

Technical Analysis The potential for upside remains intact as long as the pair remains above the 0.731 support

level. The breach of the 0.757 resistance (key moving averages remains critical) to affirm a positive bias. However, weak momentum indicators suggest possible sideways consolidation.

Potential to extend upwards if 0.731 support remains intact


0.731

0.755

0.68

0.71

0.74

0.77

0.80


AUD

/USD

AUD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



USD/SGD We remain neutral, looking for a breach of key technicals to signal a directional trend

Neutral Key technical indicators*


RSI (14) Buy



ADX (14) Buy

Momentum (14) Buy Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1.444 High Resistance 1 1.437 High Spot 1.431 – Support 1 1.415 Medium Support 2 1.400 Medium

Key Signposts Fed rate decision Dec-14 Singapore retail sales Dec-15


Fundamental Overview Sentiment towards Asian currencies has remained weak following the US election results, the

surge in US Treasury yields and capital outflows from the region. More recently, we are beginning to see signs of stability following the strong run in the USD and Treasury yields. The Fed’s assessment this week is likely to be critical and any dovish tilt would be supportive for Asia-ex-Japan, including the SGD.

Technical Analysis The impulsive rebound late last week appears to suggest the corrective phase of the rally

may be coming to end. The break above 1.437 thus remains critical to determine if a deeper rally can ensue. In the short-term the sideways consolidation can continue to develop.

Consolidation takes hold, breach of 1.415 or 1.437 needed


1.415

1.437

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.40

1.42

1.44

1.46


USD

/SG

D

USD/SGD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



GBP/USD We remain bullish, expecting it to rebound from a key support amid a likely USD pullback

Bullish Key technical indicators*


RSI (14) Neutral



ADX (14) Neutral


Resistance 2 1.300 Medium Resistance 1 1.280 High Spot 1.259 – Support 1 1.250 High Support 2 1.230 Low

Key Signposts

UK CPI (core CPI) Dec-13 UK unemployment rate and earnings

Dec-14


Fundamental Overview Recent speculation of softening of respective UK-EU stances on post Brexit negotiations, a

pause in the USD rally and unwinding of excessive short-speculator positioning could be supportive for the GBP in the short-term. However, we believe even a ‘soft’ Brexit does not mitigate medium-term risks to the economy including weak balance of payment fundamentals.

Technical Analysis Failure to breach the 100DMA at 1.250 suggests possibility for a pause in the GBP/USD rally.

Still, the upward trending support-line from the Oct low is likely to provide support and determine if the short-term rally can extend further. On the upside, we would need to see a breach of 1.280 as an indication of a deeper rally.

Support line (1.25) now key to maintaining upside bias


1.250

1.280

1.151.201.251.301.351.401.451.501.551.60


GB

P/U

SD

GBP/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



XAU/USD We remain neutral ahead of the Fed policy review and possible USD pullback

Neutral Key technical indicators and forecast*


RSI (14) Neutral



ADX (14) Neutral

Momentum (14) Sell Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1250 Medium Resistance 1 1200 High Spot 1158 – Support 1 1143 Medium Support 2 1123 Medium

Key Signposts



Fundamental Overview Gold came under pressure following the US election amid a sharp rise in US Treasury yields

which exceeded the pick-up in inflation expectations (US net-of-inflation yields, measured by TIPS bond yields, rose). However, for Treasury yields gains to accelerate, we would need to see the Fed turn much more aggressive, which we do not expect in this policy review.

Technical Analysis Gold’s continued downtrend and breach below intermediate support levels suggests potential

for further downside. The next support level is at 1143 (Mar 2015 low), followed by 1123 (23.6% retracement). However, momentum indicators have turned neutral suggesting potential for a sideways consolidation near-term.

Slowing momentum indicators ahead of Fed policy review


1,143

1,200

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400


XAU

/USD

XAU/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



NZD/USD We remain bullish as NZD remains above key technical support

Bullish Key technical indicators and forecast*


RSI (14) Buy


MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Neutral


Resistance 2 0.740 High Resistance 1 0.720 High Spot 0.715 – Support 1 0.706 Medium Support 2 0.695 High

Key Signposts



Fundamental Overview With an improved outlook for commodities, we need to see a significant shift in the Fed’s

policy stance of modest rate hikes to justify a firmly negative outlook for the NZD. Conversely, a rebound in sentiment towards Asian currencies following stabilisation in the USD and Treasuries would be NZD positive.

Technical Analysis The retracement higher is showing potential for further extension; however, the 0.72 (key

moving averages and last week’s high) resistance is critical. A breach here would open room towards 0.740. Conversely, the pair needs to remain above 0.706 (200DMA) to sustain a bullish bias.

Rebound above key support suggests potential to extend


0.706

0.720

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75


NZD

/USD

NZD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS

Consolidation expected around key support (0.83) View

Neutral

We remain neutral ahead of a key support region (200DMA)

Recent negatives impacting the EUR may have priced-in. EUR and GBP risks both appear balanced at current levels.

Sideways consolidation continues to develop, USD outlook key View

Neutral

We remain neutral as the USD could consolidate near term.

We expect modest CNY weakness to continue over the medium term amid a continued monetary easing bias by China authorities.


0.830

0.850

0.68

0.73

0.78

0.83

0.88

0.93


EUR

/GB

P

EUR/GBP 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA

6.855

6.965

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.0


USD

/CN

H

USD/CNH 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont’d)

Break above 1.000 suggests bullish bias, but technicals stretched View

Neutral

The convincing break above 1.000 suggests a new medium-term trend

However, in the short term, the USD rally may be stretched and a consolidation is likely.

CAD continues to rally on the back of oil prices View

Bearish

We remain bearish as the rally in oil appears to pick-up momentum which is CAD supportive

Technically, the break below 50DMA is significant, while a breach of the 200DMA could signal further downtrend.


1.000

1.020

0.93

0.96

0.99

1.02

1.05


USD

/CH

F

USD/CHF 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA

1.310

1.324

1.22

1.27

1.32

1.37

1.42

1.47


USD

/CAD

USD/CAD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont’d)

Consolidation remains intact above 1.035 View

Neutral

We remain neutral; potential for a recovery remains intact above 1.035.

A break of 1.077 is still needed to signal a deeper bull-rally. A break below could open room towards1.023 (2016 low).


1.035

1.055

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15


AUD

/NZD

AUD/NZD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



Interest Rate Differentials

EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD

GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

-1.75-1.55-1.35-1.15-0.95-0.75-0.55-0.35-0.15

Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 Dec-16EU

R/U

SD

%

EUR-USD 2 year interest rate differentialEUR/USD (RHS)

95

105

115

125

0.100.250.400.550.700.851.001.151.301.45

Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 Dec-16

USD

/JPY

%

USD-JPY 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)USD/JPY

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0


AU

D/U

SD

%

AUD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)AUD/USD (RHS)

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


GB

P/U

SD

%

GBP-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)GBP/USD (RHS)

0.62

0.72

0.82

0.92

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5


NZD

/USD

%

NZD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)NZD/USD (RHS)

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

-1.2

-0.7

-0.2

0.3

0.8


USD

/CA

D

%

USD-CAD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)USD/CAD (RHS)



FX Implied Volatility

EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD

GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD


3.5

5.5

7.5

9.5

11.5

13.5

15.5


%

EUR 1M implied vol

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17


%

JPY 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


%

AUD 1M implied vol

3

8

13

18

23

28

33

Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

%

GBP 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


%

NZD 1M implied vol

3

5

7

9

11

13

15


%

CAD 1M implied vol



Consensus forecasts

Consensus Forecasts Spot Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017

EUR/USD 1.06 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.05

USD/JPY 115.41 107.00 112.00 111.00 112.00

AUD/USD 0.75 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.72

NZD/USD 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.68

USD/SGD 1.43 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46

GBP/USD 1.26 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.23

USD/CAD 1.31 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.37

USD/CHF 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04




TECHNICAL INDICATORS – EXPLANATORY APPENDIX

RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold.

Stochastic Oscillator – The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20%, while a reading of 80% is considered overbought.

MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa.

ADX (Average Directional Index) – This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal.

Momentum Indicator – The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak.


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Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within Standard Chartered Bank, (“SCB”) particularly those of the Global Research function. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. United Kingdom: Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is an authorised financial services provider (licence number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC. Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities. This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons. Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be). This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations.


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SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) from your use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents. SCB, and/or a connected company, may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities, currencies or financial instruments referred to on this document or have a material interest in any such securities or related investment, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments. Accordingly, SCB, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this document. This document must not be forwarded or otherwise made available to any other person without the express written consent of SCB. Copyright: Standard Chartered Bank 2016. Copyright in all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of, and may only be reproduced with permission of an authorised signatory of, Standard Chartered Bank. Copyright in materials created by third parties and the rights under copyright of such parties are hereby acknowledged. Copyright in all other materials not belonging to third parties and copyright in these materials as a compilation vests and shall remain at all times copyright of Standard Chartered Bank and should not be reproduced or used except for business purposes on behalf of Standard Chartered Bank or save with the express prior written consent of an authorised signatory of Standard Chartered Bank. All rights reserved. © Standard Chartered Bank 2016.

THIS IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED BY A RESEARCH UNIT.

FX Strategy 12 Dec 2016 PvB - Standard Chartered · 12/12/2016 · USD/SGD Neutral Consolidation...

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