7/29/2019 fw_week_38_2013

1/3

www.fearnleys.com

WEEKLYPublished by Fearnresearch 18. September 2013

TANKERSCHARTERINGCrudeVLCC charterers finished their September program ex and started slowly tosecure tonnage basis 1st decade of Oct beginning this week. Mostly FarEastern charterers have been active which could be linked to the upcomingholidays later this week in their area. Owners have managed to marginallyincrease rates, but it remains to be seen if the trend really is firmer as thesupply of tonnage remains adequate. The Atlantic VLCC market which hasbeen inactive the recent weeks has seen slightly more activity althoughowners have not managed to capitalize on it as supply of tonnage stilloutnumbering cargoes seen in the market. Rates for Suezmax in W.Afrweakened further and reached the lowest point so far in 2013. A long list ofunemployed ships versus a mediocre fixing activity leaves no hope for animprovement any time soon. The MED and Bl.Sea Suezmax marketremained steady at low levels. Nsea and Baltic Aframaxes reached thebottom ratewise, but with more activity expected end month cross Nsea andbeginning of Oct ex Baltic we expect rates could improve slightly in thearea. This week has been much like last week with rates still at rockbottom. All eyes are on Libya to see if production will resume and ports re-open. But with conflicting messages owners not getting their hopes up for abetter market just yet. The Caribs Aframaxes fell about 5 ws points with moreavailable tonnage in the area putting downward pressure on the rates.

ProductWest: After last weeks drop in TA rates for MRs and LRs, rates are nowaround the 95 and 85 mark, respectively. LR2s have seen little activity andwith only a couple of fixtures, we estimate rate to around USD 2.2m basisSTS Cont to Japan/Korea. Short voyages on the Cont and in the Med fellabout 5 points and are today paying ws115 basis 30k mt in both segments.The biggest decline in rates this week owners have seen in the States. Avoyage basis 38k mt from USG to Cont dropped about 20 points to ws105level today and a straight Caribs upcoast voyage fell some 10 points. East:The negative trend in the East continued for both LR2s and LR1s and thetonnage list for the next 2 weeks does not encourage of any improvement offreight rates. In addition a few owners are considering to ballast their LR2sfrom the west via Suez Canal to MEG or WC India which put the ratesfurther down. Basis 75k mt naphtha MEG/Japan latest fixture concluded atws92.5 which equals to about USD 13.5k on r/v basis. LR1 rates basis 55kmt MEG-Japan dropped another 5-7.5 points to ws100 giving about USD 8k/day. The MR rates softened as well to ws115 level basis 30k mt basisSingapore-Japan voyage.

ACTIVITY LEVELVLCC Suezmax Aframax P. E. of Suez P. W. of Suez

Mixed Soft Mixed Soft Soft

RATESDIRTY (Spot WS)

This Week Last Week Low 2013 High 2013

MEG / West VLCC 23.0 22.5 17.5 28.5

MEG / Japan VLCC 34.0 33.5 30.0 47.5

MEG / Singapore VLCC 34.0 33.5 30.5 47.5

WAF / USG 260,000 37.5 39.0 35.0 46.0

WAF / USAC 130,000 45.0 50.0 45.0 67.5

Sidi Kerir / W Me 135,000 47.5 50.0 47.5 72.5

N. Afr / Euromed 80,000 70.0 70.0 67.5 105.0

UK / Cont 80,000 82.5 80.0 72.5 120.0

Caribs / USG 70,000 105.0 110.0 80.0 117.5

CLEAN (Spot WS)

MEG / Japan 75,000 92.5 100.0 67.5 110.0

MEG / Japan 55,000 100.0 105.0 77.5 140.0

MEG / Japan 30,000 115.0 120.0 105.0 177.5

Singapore / Japan 30,000 115.0 120.0 105.0 170.0

Baltic T/A 60,000 85.0 85.0 85.0 150.0

UKC-Med / States 37,000 95.0 97.5 95.0 192.5

USG / UKC-Med 38,000 105.0 122.5 60.0 130.0

1 YEAR T/C (usd/day) (theoretical)

VLCC (modern) 18,000 18,000 17,500 19,000

Suezmax (modern) 15,500 15,500 15,500 16,000

Aframax (modern) 12,250 12,250 12,250 14,000

LR2 105,000 15,750 15,500 14,500 16,500

LR1 80,000 14,750 14,750 13,750 15,000

MR 47,000 14,000 14,250 13,000 14,250

VLCCs fixed all areas last week: 40 previous week: 51

VLCCs avail. in MEG next 30 days: 102 last week: 101

SALE AND PURCHASE

Vessel Size Built Buyer Price Comm.Stavanger Bell 105 309 2010 Greek 31,00

UACC Shams 50 138 2009 US Fund 173,00 Enbl w/MVEvian

Hongbo 50 106 2009

Miss Marilena 50 096 2009

Britto 50 078 2009

Lichtenstein 50 070 2009

Eagle Gulf 45 998 1995 Indian 9,00

Northern Lynx 16 533 2003 Borealis 25,00 Enbloc +StSt

Northern Wolverine 16 533 2006

DRY BULKCHARTERINGHandyThe rates in Feast are still firm this week even the activity calmed down abit as chrtrs are not in a rush to cover even their end Sept cargos seems theyare speculating on lower rates. Indo/China coal rounds spot vessel openPhils fixed at USD 13k. For vessels open ECI rates jumping up to aroundUSD 10k dop for trips Indo/India with coal. Short period a 57k dwt vesselopen N.China was fixed at low 11k for 3/5 mos redel WW. MEG/WCI isstill quiet. S.Africa is over supply, rates remain USD 8+200k for trip toFeast.

PanamaxAfter the recent rally, in particular in the Eastern Hemisphere, the marketseems to have taken a breather - before moving further up. NOPAC roundsbeing fixed from 14k and close to 15k mid-week, but with healthy volumesand a steady flow of Cape splits there is room for elevated levels short term.Good signs for USG grain activity, where ton rates have moved up from 45to above 50 in a week could be the basis for a substantial rise in theAtlantic market. With a lagging index and some voyage rates well underindex, T/A rounds should be in the 12k range and fronthaul around 18k,even well above 20k on some particular runs. It seems the number ofballasters into the Western Hemisphere is being outnumbered by freshrequirements. Finally, we see decent volumes and levels for period where

Owners secure about 12k for short and 11+ on 1 year spec and positiondepending. At least for now, the market is firm!

CapesizeCrusade continues with some speculating that market fundamentals mayagain look more rosy. Average daily earnings have gained almost USD 6kw-o-w, coming in at a firm USD 35500. The main driver is now increasingAtlantic mineral volumes combined with tight supply, and USD 40000 donefor T/A round. Looking ahead, most owners are rating well described shipsin the region of USD 35000, reflecting the aggressive gains seen on neardated paper FFA contracts for Oct and Q4 now stand at USD 36250 and32000, respectively. Period deals are being concluded at levels not seensince 2010, with USD 27500 for 5-7 months done on a good 180000-tonnerand lately USD 23250 done basis about 12 months. At present it appearsthat Chinese seasonal re-stocking activities will continue to absorb thegrowing spot iron ore supply, at least in the short term. This, combined witha relatively stable iron ore price, are good short term indicators for the Capemarket.

ACTIVITY LEVELCapesize Panamax Handysize

Strong Active LowRATESCAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne)

This Week Last Week Low 2013 High 2013

TCT Cont/Far East (172 dwt) 57,000 49,000 17,600 57,000

Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore) 15.90 13.70 6.80 15.90

Richards Bay/R.dam 13.80 12.60 6.10 13.80

PANAMAX (usd/day, usd/tonne)

Transatlantic RV 11,000 10,000 6,000 11,800

TCT Cont / F. East 18,500 16,500 12,500 18,500

TCT F. East / Cont 1,500 1,500

TCT F. East RV 14,750 13,000 3,700 14,750

Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc 8.25 7.90 7.00 8.50

Murmansk b.13-L.pool 15/25,000 sc 9.00 8.65 7.75 9.50

HANDYSIZE (usd/day)

Atlantic RV 10,500 10,400 8,690 14,400

Pacific RV 8,850 8,500 4,900 9,200TCT Cont / F. East 14,750 15,200 10,770 15,200

1 YEAR T/C (usd/day)

Capesize 150,000 dwt 17,500 17,000 7,600 17,500

Capesize 170,000 dwt 22,500 22,000 9,100 22,500

Panamax 75,000 dwt 11,200 11,000 7,000 11,200

Handysize 53,000 dwt 9,500 9,600 8,300 10,200

Baltic Dry Index (BDI): This Week: 1822 Last week: 1628

SALE AND PURCHASE

Vessel Size Built Buyer Price Comm.

Maritime Anita 76 737 2004 Ultrabulk 16,80

Yangfan Resale x 2 (Hull.No. 2255 + 2256)

64 000 2 014 Kiran Group 26,50 Each

Jiangsu Hantong ResaleHT57-12

57 000 2013 Greek 23,50

Namrun 55 000 2007 Undisclosed 20,50Evian 51 201 2002 US Fund 173 Enbloc deal w/

tankers

Golden Elpis 46 645 1997 Undisclosed 8,50

Omiros 42 183 1987 Undisclosed 3,80

STX Azalea 29 263 2010 Primal ShipManagement

14,00 Resold byGolden Ocean

Neumetal Venture 27 786 1998 Undisclosed 7,80

7/29/2019 fw_week_38_2013

2/3

Fearnleys Weekly Report 18. September 2013 Published by Fearnresearch

GASCHARTERINGThe week has been sub-par as far as activity in the VLGC market isconcerned. It seems that September positions are covered leaving a verysmall vessel overhang into October. The Saudi Aramco October acceptancesthat just came out did contrary to expectations not spur any action in thefreight market, but a few lifters got their fob cargoes moved from the ME Gulfto the Red Sea. We have seen a few sub-fixtures for early October loading atrates following the recent trend of softening freights. The Baltic VLGCindex has been losing ground every single day in very small increments fornearly four weeks now - however, only about 10% from its previous high on22nd August. Current Baltic level still returns around USD 47,000 a day,nothing to be worried about in our opinion. The next change in global LPGsupply is just around the corner when Targa after a couple of recent trialliftings commences exports of 4 VLGC cargoes per month from their GalenaPark (TX) facility in October. This has led to a shift of tonnage from theEast to the West where we have just seen an owner ballast all the way.

ACTIVITY LEVELCOASTER 15-23,000 cbm 82,000 cbm

Low Low Low

RATESSPOT MARKET (usd/month***)

This Week Last Week Low 2013 High 2013

82.000 cbm / FR 1,445,000 1,535,000 280,000 1,730,000

57.000 cbm / FR 950,000 950,000 900,000 950,000

35.600 cbm / FR 850,000 850,000 725,000 850,000

20.000 cbm / SR* 920,000 920,000 880,000 940,000

10.000 cbm ETH** 520,000 530,000 520,000 570,0006.500 cbm / SR 455,000 455,000 440,000 470,000

COASTER Europe 210,000 220,000 145,000 320,000

COASTER Asia 200,000 200,000 200,000 245,000

* 20,000 cbm s/r reflects average spot market, LPG and Petchems (segment 15,000 /23,000 cbm)

** 10,000 cbm eth reflects average spot market, Petchems and LPG (segment 8,200 /12,500 cbm)

*** Excl. waiting time, if any

LNGSPOT MARKET (usd/day)

This Week Last Week Low 2013 High 2013

East of Suez 138-145cbm 96,000 95,000 86,000 125,000

West of Suez 138-145cbm 100,000 102,000 86,000 130,000

1 yr TC 138-145cbm 75,000 75,000 75,000 120,000

LPG/FOB prices (usd/tonne) Propane Butane ISO

FOB North Sea / ANSI 833.50 871.50Saudi Arabia / CP 850.00 875.00

MT Belvieu (US Gulf) 583.52 603.63 628.16

Sonatrach : Bethioua 840.00 872.00

SALE AND PURCHASE

Vessel Cbm Type Built Buyers Price Misc

No reportable sales this week

DEMOLITIONVessels sold for demolition

VLCC/VLOO SUEZMAX CAPE/OBO

Year to date 2013: 16 4 21

Year to date 2012: 11 13 43

2012 total: 16 14 56

SOLD FOR DEMOLITIONVessel name Size Ldt Built Buyer Price

MT New Victory 285 733 38 634 1993 Chinese 380

MV Buccleuch 182 675 22 494 1993 Chinese 377

MT New Fortuner 146 041 22 021 1996 Chinese 380

LNG Norman Lady 53 624 23 380 1973 Chinese (Incl. 3,800 tonsof Nickel) 515

CONT Hope 49 262 19 862 1989 Indian (50 T workingpropeller) 408

CONT YM Zenith 45 500 19 426 1996 Chinese 378

CONT MSC Accra 33 857 9 600 1985 Indian 400

MV H Pioneer 30 900 6 334 1982 Indian (Bronze workingand spare

propeller) 400

RORO Rosa Delmas 27 601 14 222 1985 Turkish 327

CONT Seaboxer 24 046 7 590 1994 Indian (200 T bunkersincl.) 420

MV Anik 23 245 8 553 1987 Chinese (250 T bunkersincluded) 362,5

Reefer Baltic Night 10 598 6 752 1980 Turkish (200 T bunkersincl.) 320

NEWBUILDINGGENERAL COMMENTSome activity recorded this week, ranging from Handysize to mini Capes.Although activity, according to reported number of contracts, seems low,several of the major yards are getting to a comfort level in terms of orderbacklogs, hence looking for better return on their products. Consequently,prices are on the raise and deliveries are moving into end 2016.

ACTIVITY LEVELTankers Dry Bulkers Others

Low Active Low

Average Far Eastern Prices

PRICES (mill usd) This Week Last Week Low 2013 High 2013

VLCC 300dwt 89.0 89.0 88.0 89.0

Suezmax 150dwt 58.0 58.0 57.0 58.0

Aframax 110dwt 47.5 47.5 45.0 47.5

Product 50dwt 34.0 34.0 32.0 34.0

Capesize 180dwt 49.0 49.0 45.0 49.0

Panamax 82dwt 28.5 28.5 27.5 28.5

Handymax 64dwt 27.0 27.0 25.5 27.0

NEWBUILDING CONTRACTS

Type No Size Yard Owner Del Mill$ Comm.

BC 5+5 38500 dwt Taizhou Kouan Interlink 2015

BC 2+1 63500 dwt Dayang Horizon Tankers 2015 26

BC 2 105000 dwt CSI Jiangsu FUSCO 2015-2016

40,6

BC 5+5 38500 dwt Taizhou Kouan Interlink 2015

BC 2+1 63500 dwt Dayang Horizon Tankers 2015 26

BC 2 105000 dwt CSI Jiangsu FUSCO 2015-2016

40,6

BC 1+1 180000 dwt SWS Cara Shipping 2016

CO 2 8800 teu New Times CIMC 2015 85

LPG 2 11000 cbm Asakawa Komaya 2014/15

28

LPG 2 83000 cbm Jiangnan TSW

MARKET BRIEFRate of exchange This Week Last Week Low 2013 High 2013

JPY/USD 99.01 100.28 86.97 103.07

KRW/USD 1081.46 1086.55 1058.73 1154.45

NOK/USD 5.91 5.92 5.47 6.14

USD/EUR 1.34 1.33 1.28 1.35Interest rate

Eurodollar 12 mnths 0.65 0.67 0.65 0.84

EuroNOK 12 mnths 2.09 2.10 1.88 2.33

Commodity prices

Brent spot (USD) 108.17 111.64 98.95 118.75

Bunker prices

Singapore 180 CST 605.00 602.00 602.00 675.00

380 CST 595.00 592.00 588.00 665.00

Gasoil 915.00 925.00 836.00 995.00

Rotterdam 180 CST 613.00 613.00 595.00 667.00

380 CST 590.00 592.00 573.00 645.00

Diesel 904.00 928.00 820.00 1000.00

7/29/2019 fw_week_38_2013

3/3

Fearnleys Weekly Report 18. September 2013 Published by Fearnresearch

FEARNLEYS ASP.O BOX 1158 SENTRUM0107 OSLOPHONE: + 47 22 93 60 00www.fearnleys.com

FEARNRESEARCHfearnresearch@fearnleys.noTelefax: 22 93 61 10FEARNTANKfearntank@fearnleys.noT l f 22 93 62 48

FEARNBULKfearnbulk@fearnleys.noTelefax: 22 93 62 50FEARNGASfearngas@fearnleys.noT l f 22 93 61 30

FEARNSALEfearnsale@fearnleys.noTelefax: 22 93 61 50ADMINISTRATIONTelefax: 22 93 61 20