FWCE455syllabusF12

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FWCE 455 - Environmental Risks and Decisions

Syllabus, Fall 2012

May 29, 2012

1 Instructor

Dr. Mark C. AndersenProfessor, Department of Fish Wildlife and Conservation Ecology

Associate Dean, Honors CollegeOffice: 204 Conroy Honors Center and 126 Knox HallPhone: 646-8034email: via Canvas preferredOffice hours:

2 Class meeting

Class meets Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, 1:30 to 2:20, in GT 190. This is a very large lecturehall; please sit near the front. Also, please be on time; attendence is expected.

3 Required materials

Mark Burgman, 2005. Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management. Cam-bridge University Press.

Other readings and resources as assigned; these will be made available through the course website on Canvas.

4 Course description

This course is about risk assessment and decision analysis in the context of environmental and con-servation issues. Prerequisites include MATH 142 or equivalent, A ST 311 or equivalent, and FWCE301 or equivalent.

5 Course objectives

Students will demonstrate understanding of:

Basic probability concepts

The taxonomy of uncertainty

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Problems with common-sense risk perception

The precautionary principle and other alternatives to standard risk assessments

The basic outline of the risk assessment process

Regional risk assessment

Quantitative methods for ecological risk assessment

Tree-structured models of fault and decision processes

The uses of Bayesian belief networks in ecological risk assessment

The application of statistical decision theory in ecological risk assessment

6 Class policies

Team work: Much of the work each student does in this class will be done as a member of a team.You are expected to do your share of all assigned team work. If you will be absent on a daywhen there is team work to be done, you must notify the other members of your team as wellas notifying your instructor. Your teammates will evaluate your contribution to the teamsperformance at the end of the semester.

Absence: For an absence to be excused, I must be notified in advance of the absence and providedwith some form of documentation. The student will be responsible for all assigned work evenin the case of an excused absence. Student behavior: Students are expected to show considera-tion for the learning environment. This includes respecting others, using appropriate and civillanguage, and adherence to the NMSU Student Code of Conduct.

Deadlines: Assigned written work is due in class or in Blackboard (as specified by the instructor)on the date indicated wen the work was assigned. If you know you are going to be absent onthe day an assignment is due, turn the work in before you leave. Late work will receive an

automatic 10% deduction for each day past the due date.

Extra credit: Extra credit will not be offered.

Incomplete grade: Incomplete grades will only be assigned in extreme circumstance and only if thestudent provides thorough documentation of an extraordinary circumstance which precludescompletion of the course. If such a circumstance arises prior to the last date to withdraw, thestudent should withdraw from the course rather than seeking an incomplete grade. The studentmust have completed at least half the course and be passing at the time the circumstance occurs.

Plagiarism: Cheating or plagiarism in any form will not be tolerated. Suspected instances of cheat-ing or plagiarism will be dealt with according to applicable NMSU policies. For further infor-mation on plagiarism, see http://lib.nmsu.edu/plagiarism/.

Cell phones: Please keep cell phones silent during the class; if you anticipate an emergency callduring class, notify the instructor.

7 Grading

See Figures 1 and 2 for an explanation of the grading scheme used in this course.

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http://lib.nmsu.edu/plagiarism/http://lib.nmsu.edu/plagiarism/


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Figure 1: Values for exams and assignments in determining final grade

Figure 2: Grading scale

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8 Students with disabilities

Feel free to call Diana Quintana, Coordinator or Student Accessibility Services at 575-646-6840 withany questions you may have on student issues related to the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA)and/or Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973. All medical information will be treated confi-

dentially. Feel free to call Gerard Nevarez, Director of Institutional Equity at 575-646-3635 with anyquestions you may have about NMSUs Non-discrimination Policy and complaint of discrimination,including sexual harassment. Feel free to call Gerard Nevarez, Director of Institutional Equity at 575-646-3635 with any questions you may have about NMSUs Non-discrimination Policy and complaintof discrimination, including sexual harassment.

9 Course Schedule (tentative)

Week Date Topic Reading Due

1 24 AugAdministrivia

Course introductionSyllabus

Team project scenarios

2 27 Aug Risk and uncertainty Chapter 12 29 Aug Probability concepts See course web site2 31 Aug Taxonomy of uncertainty 1 Chapter 2 Probability quiz3 3 Sept HOLIDAY3 5 Sept Taxonomy of uncertainty 23 7 Sept Uncertainty discussion See course web site4 10 Sept Issues with risk perception4 12 Sept Risk perception discussion See course web site4 14 Sept Meet with teams5 17 Sept Team project 1

5 19 Sept Team project 1Presentations

Reports5 21 Sept The Precautionary Principle

6 24 SeptPrecautionary Principle

DiscussionSee course web site

6 26 SeptSustainability Metrics and

Alternative Scenarios

6 28 SeptRisk Assessment invarious disciplines

Chapter 3

7 1 Oct The Risk Management Paradigm7 3 Oct Regional Risk Assessment Chapter 67 5 Oct Meet with teams8 8 Oct Team Project 2 Exam 1 available

8 10 Oct Team Project 2Presentations

Reports

8 12 Oct Conceptual models Chapter 5

9 15 OctConceptual models

DiscussionSee course web site Exam 1 closes

9 17 Oct Monte Carlo models Chapter 10

9 19 OctPopulation

viability analysis (PVA)

10 22 OctEndangered species PVA


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10 24 OctInvasive species PVA


10 26 Oct Risk assessment examples11 29 Oct Risk assessment examples

11 31 Oct Risk assessment examples11 2 Nov Risk assessment examples12 5 Nov Meet with teams12 7 Nov Team Journal Club12 9 Nov Team Journal Club13 12 Nov Logic Trees Chapter 8 Paper summaries13 14 Nov Event and Decision Trees13 16 Nov Bayesian Belief Networks 1 Event tree Homework14 19 Nov HOLIDAY14 21 Nov HOLIDAY14 23 Nov HOLIDAY15 26 Nov Bayesian Belief Networks 215 28 Nov Statistical Decision Analysis 1 Chapter 11 BBN Homework15 30 Nov Statistical Decision Analysis 2 Chapter 1216 3 Dec Meet with teams16 5 Dec Team project 316 7 Dec Team project 3 Exam 2 available

10 DecFinal Exam

1:00-3:00

PresentationsReports

Exam 2 openthrough 14 Dec

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