TrendsTrends

26th January, 2010

Hugh Griffiths

2014 ICT Futureology Event

Copyright Hugh Griffiths Associates

Hugh Griffiths

Other Experience

Non Exec Director of PhonepayPlus 2010 - The UK Mobile Marketing Association Board 2007 – 2008; The Mobile Entertainment Advisory Board 2005 – 2008;

Contact Details Email: - hugh.griffiths@live.co.uk Mobile: +447712 39712

Over 15 years experience across Mobile, Online and Digital TV. Helping organisations define and implement their digital service strategies. Specialising in mobile but also operating in fixed line Internet businesses

Director Mobile Services at Microsoft 2007 – 2009 VP Data and Content at O2 Telefonica 2001-2007Managing Director at iTouch 2000 – 2001 (Independent News and Media owned start up)Previously with: Cable & Wireless, 3i, Proctor & Gamble

World Context in 2010

Slide 3

•6,500,000,000 people in the world

•1,500,000,000 people have internet access

•300,000,000+ people have broadband to their home

•4+ billion cellphones, 200m+ with internet access, 1.2bn new devices/year

•1.2 billion pc’s, 240m new devices per year

•Hundreds of billions of videostreams from the ‘cloud’

•>1 trillion free searches took place in 2009

•>200 billion minutes on Skype in 2009 (free calls)

What will we do in the future? with lower cost...

Bits & Bytes (computing)

Bauds (unlimited bandwidth)

Communications (VOIP)

Content (web 2.0)

And fast access to consumers (ubiquitous search & social networks)

Slide 4

World Context in the next 5 - 10 years.

Everything is connected to the WWW

30 million IP phones in 2011

25 million Digital signs in 2014

40 million IP camera’s in 2012

Cars, eBooks, homes, refrigerators etc. linked to

the web

Three key trends

Slide 5

•The Internet is becoming truly mobile

•Evolution of Social Networking

•Cloud Computing

Slide 6

The Global Smartphone Market 2008-2013

Source: IDC Nov 2009

N.B. IDC Use the term ‘Converged Mobile Devices’ to define Smartphones

The Smartphone Applications Battle

Slide 7

Source: (1) IDC, Worldwide Converged Mobile Device 2009–2013 Forecast

Meanwhile in the UK the number of Mobile Internet Users is set double in the next 5 years...

Slide 8

.....with Smart phones overtaking feature phones in 2012 as the most popular deviceto access. The current number of regular users in the UK is approximately 15m (31% of the 48.2m mobile phone owning population)

Source: Mobile Squared Nov 2009

Slide 9

The Microsoft View

Consequences for Business

Slide 10

If your current customer base uses the internet to access

information about your products/services might you

need to consider a mobile site in the future?

Evolution of Social Networking

Slide 11

Slide 12

Erik Qualman ‘Socialnomics: How social media transforms the way we live and do business’

N.b.Baby Boomers Age 45-60Generation X Age 30-45Generation Y Age 15-30Generation Z Age <15

Show Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIFYPQjYhv8

Slide 13

Twitter

Slide 14

Background

Twitter founded in 2006. Officially launched its micro-blogging service in July 2007.

How it works

Each message (‘tweet’) is limited to 140 characters and can be delivered via 1) web 2) text message or 3) instant message.

User Controls – can decide whose ‘tweets’ one wants to follow, control who can access one’s own tweets, decide when to receive updates, and on what device.

Its business

Total funding : $155 million

Valuation: $1 Billion

Business model: Unknown

Who uses Twitter & Why?

Slide 15

Consumer:

•Celebrities - Popular public figures ranging from Ashton Kutcher to the Dalai Lama have tens of thousands or even millions of followers.

•Consumers - Twitter’s search function allows people to read about the latest postings on any topic, increasing Twitter’s function as a search engine. “What are people thinking about now?”

Commercial:

•Airlines - (such as British Airways) using twitter to trumpet last‐minute discounts and giveaways.

•Retail companies - (such as Dell and Toys “R” Us) Post coupons, gather feedback about their products, and talk directly to their customers.

Dell claims that Twitter generated $1 billion in revenue over the last 18 months through sales alerts posted on Twitter.

Questions for Business

Slide 16

Should your business be using social networking to

maximise its business opportunities?

Cloud computing

What is it?

Slide 17

“A model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction.”

Source: David Yoffie

Why Cloud Computing?

Slide 18

Easy Accessibility

Cost advantages

Increase capacity

Flexibility

Maintenance “free”

The Players

Slide 19

Google vision of the user and the Cloud.

Slide 20

• Google’ Apps: Word process, spreadsheet, presentation… free.

• Premier version of Google apps : $50/year vs. up to $680 for MS Office.

Content, Community, Collaboration

Overhyped?

Whilst its has great potential many of the claims made about cloud computing have led some to set unrealistic expectations

Slide 21

Problems:

‘Works Well in Theory’

The ‘Gold Rush’

Lack of Interest in Technologies that work

Source: Clearing the air on Cloud computing - McKinsey

The Future of the Cloud

Slide 22

Hypothesis: Cloud computing is inevitable

What’s the timeline defined as?

Who will win?

Questions for Business

Slide 23

Would (or will) your business benefit from Cloud

computing?

Three key trends

Slide 24

•The Internet is becoming truly mobile

•Evolution of Social Networking

•Cloud Computing

Slide 25

Thank You

Hugh Griffiths

Contact

Email: - hugh.griffiths@live.co.uk Mobile: +447712 39712