Futurism for Businesscontent.tomcheesewright.com/decks/.../futurism-for... · Futurism for Business...
Transcript of Futurism for Businesscontent.tomcheesewright.com/decks/.../futurism-for... · Futurism for Business...
Futurism for BusinessWhy the skills of foresight and adaptation are
critical to sustainable success
Tom Cheesewright, Applied [email protected]/visionone
Agenda
• Part 1: Why we need more futurists• High Frequency Change
• Part 2: Athletic organisations• Senses | Decisions | Shape
• Part 3: Scanning the horizon• Near and far
• Intersections
• Close
Part 1: The age of uncertaintyWhy we need more futurists
We’ve spent 40 years focused on making everything lean.
It’s the wrong strategy for an age of high frequency change
Low Frequency Change
High Frequency Change
COVID-19
Adaptation beats optimisation in an age of uncertainty
Part 2: Athletic OrganisationsBuilding sustainable success
BUILD AN ATHLETIC BUSINESS
Shape: Structure for today’s game
Senses: Look and listen
Decisions: Process and respond
Heighten Senses• Formal near-term horizon-scanning process every 6 months
POWER
• Accelerate flow of information from edge to core
• But more importantly…
• Push power from core to edge
INFORMATION
Accelerate Decisions
Networks not monolithsFLEXIBLE | RECONFIGURABLE | TRANSIENT
JeanLPicard ideas.lego.com
Part 3: ForesightHow to see the future
TIME
First Horizon Second Horizon Third Horizon
Approaches to foresight
TREND PROJECTION
“If what is happening now keeps happening, where will we end up?”
SCENARIO PLANNING
“Can we tell plausible stories about what might happen in the future to inform our thinking?”
INTERSECTIONS
“What happens when the trends we’re seeing collide with the pressures we’re facing?”
Heighten Senses• Formal near-term horizon-scanning process every 6 months
High Frequency Change
The Choice Explosion
Amplified Power
Accelerated Expectations
Networked Organisations
Five key trends, powered by tech
Exercise: Pressure Points
• What frustrates you most at work?
• What stops you doing your best work each day?
• What are your colleagues’ biggest concerns?
• What are your customer’s biggest challenges or complaints?
• What do you think keeps your chief executive up at night?
• What are the big challenges for your wider industry?
Intersections
HIGH FREQUENCY CHANGE
INCREASED CHOICE
AUGMENTED POWER
ACCELERATED EXPECTATIONS
NETWORKED ORGANISATIONS
PRESSURE POINT
METRIC IMPACT
Slow decision-making
Response time torelevant news events
INCREASE
Shortage of new recruits
Time to pick crop DECREASE (with automation)
Close
High frequency change has created an age of uncertainty
Future-proof organisations are reshaping to respond
Be more athletic! SENSES | DECISIONS | SHAPE
Use foresight to see what’s next
INTERSECTIONS = TRENDS + PRESSURE POINTS
Questions?Find more at tomcheesewright.com/visionone
Tom Cheesewright, Applied [email protected]