Futures Studies and Breakthrough Thinking · Journal de Physique I, 7 (1997) 39-80;...
Transcript of Futures Studies and Breakthrough Thinking · Journal de Physique I, 7 (1997) 39-80;...
Futures Studies and Breakthrough Thinking
KITAMORI kazutaka
Hokkaido University of Science, JAPAN
AOYAMA Yuko
Hokkaido University, JAPAN
WFSF Word Conference11-12 June 2015, Turke, Finland
1
1.Between Philosophy and [Break] Through
2
1a.From Philosophy to [Break] Through
Philosophy
[Break] Through
Mind is Pain
Complex Systems
Philosophy itself breaks through by itself ??3
Complex Systems : by sand pile
The pile retains its shape because occasionally a new grain of sand will trigger an avalanche which causes some number of grains to slide down the side of the cone into new positions. -From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia-
Structured criticality is a property of complex systems.
Stress Propagation and Arching in Static SandpilesJournal de Physique I, 7 (1997) 39-80; cond-mat/9607097. Sketch: Definition of the normal construction
J. Marks II, Payman Arabshahi, Andrew Gray, "Adaptive-SDR: Adaptive Swarm-based Distributed Routing ," Proceedings of the 2002 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks
1a.From Philosophy to [Break] Through
4
Mind is Pain
Mind
Pain
collapse/breaking:Pain
(Heart)
(invisible hand )
Physical
Pain
Thinking Actions
“I think, [therefore] I am”
Mental
1a.From Philosophy to [Break] Through
5
collapse/breaking : Pain
It becomes to collapse.
action nothing
vivacious action
Metaphor: the sand pile is what/how the mind is to be.
Complex Systems expresses what/how the nature should be.
We [break] it through.
1a.From Philosophy to [Break] Through
6
1b.From [Break] Through to Philosophy
Metaphor: the sand pile is what/how the mind is to be.
Automatic selves-independence: our mind grows
7
1b.From [Break] Through to Philosophy
IT cells become cancerous. IT will begin to collapse after 10 years.
what/how the mind should be?
what/how the mind is to be? interdisciplinary
This philosophy can give a clue of comprehension on myth , metaphor layer
8
‘Causal Layered Analysis’Explore possibilities of futures with four layers
Litany
Social Cause
Discourse / Worldview
Myth and Metaphor
The first level is usually presented by the news media.It is visible and obvious, requiring little analytic capability. It is believed , rarely questioned.
The second level is concerned with social causes, including economic, cultural, political and historical factors.
This level is concerned with structure and the discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it.
Myth and Metaphor are the deep stories, the collective archetypes, the unconscious, of often emotive, dimensions of the problem or the paradox. This level provides a gut/emotional level experiences to the worldview under inquiry.
9
‘Causal Layered Analysis’Benefit of CLA
Expand a range and richness of scenario
Encourage to create various ideas from the participants in the workshop
Create alternative futures
recognize the cause of cause
10
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
Litany
Social Cause
Discourse / Worldview
Myth and Metaphor
Explore the possibility of futures
with four layers
Horizontal level
Vertical level
11
Work Design
IE(Industrial Engineering), Problem Solving ApproachCreated by G.Nadler in 1959
‘Breakthrough Thinking’
12
Breakthrough Thinking
Analytical Thinking
From parts to wholeFrom whole to parts
Design Thinking
13
7 Principles of BTT
Uniqueness principle
Purposes principle
Solution-after-next principle
System principleLimited information collection principle
People design principle
Betterment timelineprinciple
14
Pythagorean Communication
Ho-
Ho-
He-
Heー Ho-
HeーCommunication Design
15