Futures of Emergency Preparedness

Using the Futures Wheel

Jim Breaux: jwbreaux@uh.edu281-615-7558@bagelx

The Project

• In the UofH futures master program one of the courses is Futures Research

• We use various methods in exploring a particular domain for a semester – my domain is the future of emergency preparedness

• One method is the Futures Wheel (Jerome Glenn, 1971); The futures wheel can assist in organizing concepts about possible futures developments and offering futures-conscious perspectives.

• For the research project I explored 2 trends that I observed during my research of the domain and pushed them through three derivative bifurcations

Futures Wheel 1

• Coastal Population Trends Upward; based on NOAA reporting increasing coastal populations in vulnerable coastal and low-lying areas.

Futures Wheel -1Future of Emergency Preparedness

Coastal Population

Trends Upward at the Coasts

More Housing needed

Housing Placement Restrictions

Change traditional Architecture

More High Rise Concrete and Steel Structures invade Coastal Habitats

Mobile Housing Rises in Popularity

New Technologies in

High Speed Evacuation

Emerge

New Laws to deal with

Evacuation Issues Enacted

Evacuation Difficulty Increases

Political Clout

Grows

Housing Costs Increase due

to New Codes

Imbalance in the Congress Relieves

Impasse of the early 2000’s

Non-Geographic Coastal Affiliation

Party Founded

Advanced Shelter and Evacuation

Logistics Imposed

Private Evacuation Businesses

Formed

OMB Forms Special Unit to Audit and

Prosecute Evacuation Fraud

Political Manipulation and Party Weakening

Efforts cause Parliamentary system

revision to POTUS

Continuation of Political Gridlock as Coastal vs. Interior

special interests fight

New Mega-Projects Are Funded to

Protect Coasts

Housing Inflation Causes Wage Inflation and

Businesses are less profitable

Novel Cost Models for

Housing Emerge

Elite vs. Masses Divide Sparks

Violence During a Major Evacuation

Political System Begins to Work as Intended by the

Founding Fathers

J. Breaux, 10/2013

ImplicationsWheel 1 Coastal Population Trends Upward at the Coasts

Take-aways• The possible simultaneous rise of stronger AND more mobile housing• Increasing Coastal population may increase political clout to get big projects financed.• Private Evacuation businesses forming to meet demand.

Groups could be better off this change were to occur:• Private Evacuation Companies for a new industry• Coastal businesses would get the labor force they need to progress• Coastal politics would rise in importance• Home Manufacturers and builders would have more work• Could be a building boom to improve shelters.

Groups could be worse off if this change were to occur:• Coastal populations at higher levels would contain more (quantity) vulnerable people• Existing labor force at coast could see wage stagnation, as new jobs are not in their same categories.• Coastal politics could be corrupt leading to unfair access by the elites against the less fortunate.• Housing costs may increase for the coastal population• Evacuation fraud (crime) could rise against the coastal populations.

Futures Wheel 2

• Wheel 2 - Plan to Improve Storm Prediction Reliability; New math and models applied to Storm prediction (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model [HWRF]) and A Shelter Network plan is proposed by Mississippi State University Industrial and Systems Engineering and Civil and Environmental Engineering departments.

Futures Wheel - 2Future of Emergency Preparedness

Plan to Improve

Storm Prediction Reliability

Evacuation IndecisionIncreases

Disconnected Cool Effect –

Drop Out

Increase in sale of Zombie Apocalypse

Survival Gear for Weather Related

Disasters

Exclusive Social Networks Arise in

Heavy Weather Areas

Immigrant Technology

Workers Become New Elite in

Home Countries

Meteorological Science Spawns

Discipline of Weather Related

Systems Engineers

New Tech Requires New

Workers

Businesses Decide to Abandon

Coasts

Social and Psychological

Services Engaged to Sell Trust

Property Values Plummet

Long Distance Transportation

Improves

Universities amid MOOC transition catch the STEM

Wave

New Laws Passed Easing

Technology Worker

Immigration

Universally Available Education Sparks

Democratic Revolution to Stop

Climate Change

The Return of the Lighter Than Air

Airship

Train to Ship Loading Interface

Improves to Reduce Weather Exposure

Massively Concentrated

Coastal Property Ownership

Threatens Tax Base

Emergency Management

Heroes Arise as Social Figures

Radical Weather

Anarchists Organize

Blending of Cultures and Gene Pool Offsets Devastating Storm

Casualties

Lower Property Values

Encourage Storm Tourists

J. Breaux, 10/2013

ImplicationsWheel 2 Plan to Improve Storm Prediction Reliability

Take-aways• Meteorological Science leading to a new disciplines of Engineers• Improving Ship to Rail interface for loading to avoid or minimize weather exposure• Immigration as a weather related disaster futures issue.

Groups could be better off this change were to occur:• University/MOOC enrollment could increase to provide new technologists• A new Storm Tourism market might emerge for thrill seekers• A new industry in weather disaster Survival gear might arise• Terra-Forming projects provide thousands of jobs• Tech Industry Immigrants given better opportunities.

Groups could be worse off if this change were to occur:• The poor that cannot afford premium evacuation services might get left behind• Larger coastal populations might contain more vulnerable people• Current Owners of property might see a decline in value• Insurance premiums might be unaffordable for property owners• Some at risk behavior (storm riders) might cause draconian laws to affect everyone else.

Key take-aways

• Great method; took me places I might not have been going

• Emergency Management Heroes; Judge Ed Emmett: Ike – “run from flood, hide from wind”

• Evacuation Industry; playing on the increasing wealth divide (1%)

• Politics – New Orleans Absentee voting; constituents with flexible geography

Questions??

References

• NOAA, (Sep, 2013) National Coastal Population Report, 1970 – 2020. Retrieved from NOAA website http://stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/

• Vijay Tallapragada & HWRF Team, Performance of the 2013 NCEP Operational HWRF and Plans for 2014 Hurricane Season, 68th IHC/TCRF, March 5, 2014

• Li, Lingfeng, Jin, Mingzhou, Zhang, Li, Sheltering network planning and management with a case in the Gulf Coast region, International Journal of Production Economics, VL – 131, IS – 2, SP – 431, EP – 440, June 2011