Futures Forum Project€¦ · Futures Forum Project •USC Annenberg Center for Communications...

Futures Forum Project

• USC Annenberg Center for Communications Leadership & Policy

• American University School of Communication

• Current, the news source for people in public media

• Wyncote Foundation, supporting both Current and the Forum Series

Purpose

Support an in-depth analysis of

strategic issues facing

public media decision-makers

as they guide their organizations from

mass media to multi-platform digital service.

Where we are

1: D. C. (Feb. 2012) – State of the System/Revenue Collaboration

2: L. A. (Apr. ) – What works for Local TV?

3. Las Vegas (May) – The Changing Financial Base

3: Seattle (July) – The Next $100 Million (Revenue Opportunities)

4: San Francisco (Sept.) – Digital News Opportunities

5: New Orleans (Nov.) – “Is PubMedia Changing Fast Enough?”

6: D. C. (Feb. 2013) – Arts and Culture in PubMedia

7: D. C. (June) – Generational Change in Management and Media

8: Atlanta (July) – Funding Local Service Expansion

First Forum

• Our first session focused on broad system issues:

• Our financial analysis showed “A Tale of Two Systems:” Public radio showing strong decade-long growth and PTV showing chronic financial weakness. (More about this below.)

• The same session included

– A presentation from Dennis Haarsager in which he encouraged PTV stations to focus on their two, very distinct lines of business, one national and one local, and

– An exploration of the question “Could Raise More Money… if we did it in a different way?” (The answer was “yes.”)

http://www.current.org/wp-content/themes/current/archive-site/pb/pb1202haarsager-commentary.html

http://www.current.org/wp-content/themes/current/archive-site/pb/pb1202haarsager-commentary.html

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Direct Revenue: Changes vs. 2001 (Adjusted to 2012 dollars)

All TV Licensees All Radio Licensees

Part of the “Tale of Two Systems” Analysis

Source: CPB Annual Financial Reports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Millio

ns

Major Revenue Sources - All TV* (Adjusted to 2012 dollars)

Individual Giving State/Local Tax CPB + Fed Grants

Business Foundations



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Millio

ns

Major Revenue Sources - All Radio* (Adjusted to 2012 dollars)

Individual Giving State/Local Tax CPB + Fed Grants

Business Foundations



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

System Revenue - All TV* (Adjusted to 2012 dollars)

% of Mem + Bus UW % Philanthropic Support

Linear (% of Mem + Bus UW) Linear (% Philanthropic Support)



From PMBA 2012

Seattle: The Next $100 Million

The Third Forum was developed in

consultation with DEI.

Prior to our meeting, we conducted 20 interviews,

with Development Directors and Development

Consultants, then followed-up with a survey of 20

additional development leaders.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Major Gifts, Planned Giving

NEW Member Practices

Revenue Digital Media

EXISTING Member Practices

NEW UnderW Practices

Foundation Grant Solicitation

EXISTING UnderW practices

Other

% of Respondents ranking this 1 or 2

Opportunity Confirmed

We found broad agreement about three large

areas of potential revenue growth

– Major Gifts,

– Sustainer Memberships and

– Digital Revenue

Our colleagues estimated that the potential for growth is

In the range of $200 million annually.

The Problem: Concentration of Potential

Even if “the system” as a whole has enormous

potential for financial growth, the capacity to

realize that potential appears to be heavily

concentrated in larger stations.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Millio

ns

Total Dir. Revenue – All Radio Licensees* 2012 Total Direct Revenue

Focusing on the “Capacity Gap”

All CPB Radio CSG Recipients, Ranked by Total Direct Revenue, 2012 AFR Report

Largest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Smallest

The largest Radio licensees are not

just “larger than average”--they are

much larger. And they are growing

by larger annual increments.


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1 51 101 151 201 251 301

Annual Growth in Solicited Revenue 314 Licensees – Average Annual Growth from 2001 – 2011 (unadjusted)

The Capacity to Change is Related to The Capacity to Grow


Annual Growth Rates: 1- 25

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1 6 11 16 21

Licensees Ranked by Avg. Ann. Growth in Dir. Rev. Average Annual Growth from 2001 – 2011 (unadjusted)


Annual Growth Rates: 26 – 50

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

26 31 36 41 46



Annual Growth Rates: Beyond 51

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

51 76 101 126 151 176 201 226 251 276 301



55%

15%

10% 7%

3% 2% 3% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N

Distribution of 2010 Major Gifts across Public Radio Tiers: 25-licensee groups, sorted by direct revenue.

Tier A = the top 25, Tier B = 26-50...

Major Giving: Expanding the “Capacity Gap”


Within PTV

• The 3 largest licensees (ranked by direct revenue)

received one third (33.4%) of all the major gifts and

endowment revenue.

• The 16 largest licensees received half (50.5%) of all

major gifts and endowment revenue.

Major Giving: Expanding the “Capacity Gap”


Under-staffing is part of the “Capacity Gap”


Large Radio Licensee Virtuous Cycle

Development/expansion

of major and planned giving

News and digital service investments

Salary levels compete for

experienced development,

digital and news executives.

More operating revenue

More major and planned gifts

Strong operating revenues

GM role evolves to be “more

like a small-college President.”

Format clarity

Expansion of development staffing

The Collective Results

Again: A Tale of Two Systems

Between 2001 and 2012 the top 20 Public Radio Licensees saw their annual revenue grow by

$260,000,000.

In that same period, the top 20 TV Licensees had their annual revenue decline by

$168,000,000.

From PMBA 2012

*Ranked by Total Direct Revenues in 2001


Connecting to our YP Survey

0 5 10 15 20 25

Staffing

Management Doesn't Understand

Money

Strategy

Organization

Content

Training

Technology

What are your greatest challenges in developing strong

digital and social media?

Connecting to our SrM Survey

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Money

Staffing

Legacy Management Thinking

Strategy

Technology

What is your station's greatest challenge in developing strong

digital media and social media capability?

The Process

• Partnered with YPpubmedia

• 20 interviews, divided equally between

– SrMs (CEOs, VPs, Dep. Heads)

– YPs (self-identified members of YPpubmedia)

• Developed a 20 question survey

• YPpubmedia sent the survey link via email

• We sent the link to 80 Sr Executives +

– Eastern Regional Public Media

– Integrated Media Association

The Process

• Gathered 79 responses from the YP

contacts

• Gathered 58 responses from our contacts,

which we filtered for SrMs (42 total)

Survey Respondents: SrM

Which of these titles best describes your current position in your

organization?

Answer Options Response

Percent

Response

Count

General Manager or CEO 72.3% 34

VP 10.6% 5

Department Director 17.0% 8

Other (please specify) 4

Survey Respondents: SrM

What is your primary area of responsibility?


Percent

Response

Count

General Admin/Financial Management 82.9% 34

Programming (all areas, including production) 2.4% 1

Fund Raising 4.9% 2

Promotion and Community Outreach 2.4% 1

Digital Services 7.3% 3

Engineering 0.0% 0

Survey Respondents: YPs

Which of these titles best describes your current position in your

organization?


Percent

Response

Count

General Manager or CEO 2.7% 2

VP 0.0% 0

Department Director 18.7% 14

Front Line Staff (not directors or VPs) 76.0% 57

Intern 2.7% 2

Survey Respondents: YPs

What is your primary area of responsibility?


Percent

Response

Count

General Admin/Financial Management 5.3% 4

Programming (all areas, including production) 28.0% 21

Fund Raising 44.0% 33

Promotion and Community Outreach 12.0% 9

Digital Services 10.7% 8

Engineering 0.0% 0

0% 2%

15%

75%

9%

0%

56%

43%

1% 0% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

20 or under 21 - 29 30 - 45 46 - 64 over 65

Age of Respondents

SrM YPs

13%

22% 24%

41%

61%

29%

9%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2 years or less 2 - 5 years 5 - 10 years over 10 years

Tenure in Your Position?

SrM YPs

Many Similarities

• Similar patterns of phone ownership

• Both groups listen to radio almost every day

• Only a small segment of either group listens

regularly to HD radio (home/car)

• 92% of YPs use Facebook frequently

81% of SrMs use Facebook frequently

Some Differences (smaller than you might expect)

• YPs more likely to use Pandora/Spotify

• SrMs own more tablets and video-streaming devices

• YPs more likely to use Hulu and Netflix frequently

• YPs use Twitter more (69% frequent use vs. 48% for SrMs)

• YPs use Instagram much more (47% frequent use vs. 15% for SrMs)

• SrMs use Linked-In more (36% frequent use vs. 24% for YPs)

Many Similarities

• Similar patterns of phone ownership

83%

17%

0% 0%

69%

31%

0% 0% 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

iPhone Any Android Phone Windows Phone Blackberry

What kind of phone?

SrM YPs

78%

61%

35%

22%

7%

54%

47%

13% 8%

22%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

A Tablet

(any kind)

Internet video

streaming device

HD Radio

(car or home)

Satellite

Radio

None of these

E-Devices

SrM YPs

Difference in Perspective

• YPs had a somewhat lower evaluation of the

quality of their own station’s website:

34% rated their own site poor/very poor vs. 5% SrMs.

• YPs generally had a lower evaluation of the

“preparedness” of their senior staff in the

areas of digital and social media.

Questions of “Preparedness”

• We asked SrManagers: How well prepared do you feel to manage each of these parts of your service agenda (broadcasting, digital media, social media)?

• We asked Yps: How well prepared is the senior management at your station to manage each of these parts of your service agenda?.

• We provided a 5-point scale

5 4 3 2 1

Very well Adequately Neutral Less than Poorly prepared prepared adequately prepared prepared

83%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Verywell/adequately

prepared

Less thanadequate/poorly

prepared

YP - Are Your Managers Prepared

to Manage Broadcast

91%

0% 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Verywell/adequately

prepared


prepared

SrM- Are You Prepared to

Manage Broadcast

Managing Broadcast

41% 41%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Verywell/adequately

prepared


prepared


to Manage New Media

69%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Verywell/adequately

prepared


prepared

SrM - Are You Prepared to

Manage New Media

Managing New Media

38% 38%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Verywell/adequately

prepared


prepared


to Manage Social Media?

69%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Verywell/adequately

prepared


prepared

SrM- Are Your Managers Prepared

to Manage Social Media?

Managing Social Media

• YPs and SrMs share a common view about the

evolution of their service (from more-broadcast value to more-online value)

• They share a common vision of investment

needs, spread across: Digital Service, Content (across platforms),

Revenue Development, Outreach

More (important) Similarities:

More (and important) Similarities:

• We asked them to quantify “station service value:

today (2013) and ten years from today ( 2023).

How would you describe the balance in your service value in 2013?

100% Balanced 100%

Broadcast 50/50 Online

OnAir /Online

0%

19%

42%

20%

13%

3% 3%

0% 0% 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

100% Broadcast Balanced: 50% Broadcast/50% New Media 100% New Media

YP - How much of our value is on-air vs. online?

YPs 2013

81% place the value

under 50% online

0% 1%

7%

3%

20%

12%

43%

10%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%


YP - How much of our value is on-air vs. online?

YPs 2013 Yps 2023

68% place the value

over 50% online

0%

26%

50%

5%

13%

0% 3%

0% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


SrM - How much of our value is on-air vs. online?

Sr Mgrs 2013

83% place value

under 50% online

0%

5% 5% 8%

24%

14%

30%

14%

0% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


SrM - How much of our value is on-air vs. online?

Sr Mgrs 2013 Sr Mgr 2023

58% place value

over 50% online

25%

22%

13% 12%

7%

3%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Digital/Soc Media

Content(all platforms)

FundRCapacity

Marketing/Outreach

Facilities(Building/Studio)

Signal exp. OtherInvestment

YP: Investment Priorities

29%

24%

15%

8%

5%

7%

12%

25%

22%

13% 12%

7%

3%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Digital/Soc Media

Content(all platforms)

FundRCapacity

Marketing/Outreach

Facilities(Building/Studio)

Signal exp. OtherInvestment

SrM vs. YP: Investment Priorities

Contact: Mark Fuerst, Director of Strategic Initiatives, Current

845-876-2577 - [email protected]

Futures Forum Project€¦ · Futures Forum Project •USC Annenberg Center for Communications...

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