FUTURE WORLD

This presentation is one that has been given at various universities for classes in international business.

My name is Dr. Alijandra Mogilner and I am Executive Vice President of Faucon International, a business development company. I have over ten years experience solving problems for businesses and as a futurist for individuals and multinational businesses. I have worked for businesses in the U.S., Mexico, China, Africa, and throughout Europe and Eastern Europe.

See our website at http://www.fauconinternational.com for more information

Faucon International3639B Midway DriveSuite 176San Diego, CA 92110info@fauconinternational.com

What is this Presentation?

This presentation is to give you some idea of the world in which you will be working and investing. It includes some of the methods I use in making business projections. The overall system is rather complicated, but you will at least see the basics here and some of the most important projections for business.

The presentation also includes some of the threats such as terrorism and natural disasters that are involved in international business. Most business people ignore such threats, but proper planning can mitigate the impact of such events and make the difference between thriving despite a catastrophic incident or having it be the reason a company or individual is destroyed financially.

I have concentrated on the West Coast of the United States for many of my examples because that is where many of my students live and it is easier to understand an environment with which you are familiar. The issues are universal – the same throughout the world; you ignore them at your own risk.

Satellite image of Palo Alto

Mohave

In 20 years 80% of the entire world’s population is expected to be located in the urban littoral. It will be slower in the United States, but it is happening.

METHODOLOGY

Technology allows us to see what is happening NOW and helps project the future.

San Francisco and Marin are excellent examples of this heavy concentration of buildout along the littoral.

The Urban Littoral

This shows the current distribution of energy in the world and the concentration of settlement along major waterways such as oceans, rivers, and major lakes.

The Urban Littoral is a 100 mile area that borders major bodies of water and major rivers.

Mexico

Rio

Jakarta

Bejing

Buenos Aires

METHODOLOGY: Gather Data from current sources and create databases. The past is prologue.

(an intelligence operation)

Planned development for Little Italy in San Diego, California

METHODOLOGY:

Intelligence gathering on future plans

Los Angeles to San Diego.

Futurists expect it to become a megalopolis. The Boston/ NYC corridor is the first such megalopolis in the U.S.

USING THE INFORMATION GATHERED WE CAN REACH REASONABLE CONCLUSIONS

Warfare, disease, food programs, etc. become vertical not horizontal.

CONCLUSION

How does that vertical world affect you?

property values both in the littoral and outside it.

investments like health delivery systems, waste collection and containment, water availability, transportation and food.

your career: retail stores, professions, etc. must have clients available.

At the same time, communications networks allow decentralization. You may not HAVE to live near your work if you are a writer, a bookkeeper, run an online business, have a radio show, etc.

CONCLUSION

Food and Raw Materials such as ores

Manufacturing

Information Age

There are now First, Second, and Third World Countries

Whether you like it or not, we live in a world of international business and interdependence.

Conflicts:

Water, Air, Food, Medicine, and Toys – the Quality of Life and Even Life ItselfEconomic disparity between nations and within culturesLoss of the middle class in first world nations

Asymmetric Warfare on the traditional battlefield or in the homeland of the enemy will be the primary form of conflict in the world. This may include the political process, battlefield conflict, and terrorism.

Political and Social Issues may or may not use terrorismOften the Primary Goal is Change, and/or Power

Terrorism is one of the few ways a smaller, poorer, group or country can hope to gain any kind of victory against the power structure. Additionally, terrorism is used not to gain victory, but to gain money and power. Often the stated goal is undesirable to the leadership.

Domestic TerrorismPrimary Goal is Money and Power

International TerrorismPrimary Goal is Power

Industrial BlackmailPrimary Goal is Money

The less powerful the group, the more likely they are to use biological weapons

Genetics

Technology

World Trade and World Government

Immigration Demonstrators converge on the U.S. Capitol during the April 9 Jubilee 2000 mobilization for debt relief.

San Francisco now – for some

The disparities between rich and poor are already being used for political power and economic gain.

Some of the issues are real, some created, and some invented. It is becoming more and more necessary to distinguish between them.

San Francisco now – for others

It is YOU they want to eradicate!

AIDS

Even AIDS is used for political and economic gain.

Water is imported across hundreds of miles of dry land in the world's longest aqueducts; Fuel through the world's largest, longest electric wires sparks 1500 square miles of humans; Food trucked daily hundreds of miles to America's largest wholesale market, on Central Avenue, serves an appetite larger than most world nations'

VULNERABILITIES ARE GENERALLY IGNORED IN THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER NATIONS.

Ken Alibek ran the Largest Covert Biological Weapons Program in the World.

METHODOLOGY: Ask the people involved – listen to what they say.

Timothy McVeigh wasn’t militia. He worked with Iraq and white racists, but that wasn’t convenient.

Removal of a liquefying cadaver.Note protective gear.

Relatives touch the cadaver of anEbola victim. Many will later succumb.

Ebola and other emerging diseases may be weaponized or a threat in themselves.

  BIOLOGICAL WARFARE

PROBABLE TERRORIST ATTACKS (DOMESTIC OR FOREIGN) ARE OFTEN ATTRIBUTED TO SOMETHING ELSE, OR THE ALWAYS POPULAR LONE GUNMAN, BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS AND TO KEEP POPULATIONS CALM. AT OTHER TIMES THEY ARE USED TO MOVE AGAINST UNPOPULAR GROUPS OR INDIVIDUALS.

Rabbi Meir Kahane (left) and his assassin El Sayyid Nosair (right). Nosair was involved with 1st Trade Center Bombing and bin Laden

Assassination of Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

Despite the Lone Gunman claimed by law enforcement, evidence shows there were many individuals involved – some perhaps in the U.S. government.

John Doe #2 at OKC?

Padilla later picked up for dirty bomb plot

WHY SHOULD YOU CARE? IT MAKES YOU MORE VULNERABLE BECAUSE THE PERPETRATORS ARE NOT PURSUED AND STEPS ARE NOT TAKEN TO SEE THESE ATROCITIES DO NOT HAPPEN AGAIN.

When the government DOES take responsibility and let people know about possible terrorist threats political enemies complain endlessly about keeping the nation in fear.

Our best information on terrorist attacks come from the public.

Planning Ahead

Hints of the dark future terrorist have planned for us.

Bin Laden is believed to have from six to 20 nuclear suitcase bombs. Purchased from the Russians in the mid-1990s, they were not in working order. Other groups have tried to buy or make similar weapons over the past 10 years. Scientists in Afghanistan and other countries have sold their services to some groups.

THE RN IN CBRN

Kabbani   active again, (Late 2001), blaming Muslims to be extremists when they want to defend Palestine against Israeli terrorism. He has previously blamed Usama bin Ladin for buying 20 atomic bombs to be split up and carried in sutcases. If one compares such a statement with the document about how to protect ourselves, "Surviving a Terrorist Nuke  " (a document that should be read before an attack), it seems possible to carry a modern tactical nuclear weapon in a ladies handbag. And don't for a moment believe that Usama bin Ladin should blow such bombs. If anybody does it, it will automatically be blamed on Muslims.

The following two slides are from a message sent to bin Laden groups 25 Oct. 2001

Surviving a Terrorist Nuke

Whether it were the result of a terrorist attack using a "brief case" nuclear device or the first salvo of an all out nuclear war, what you did during the first few moments following a nuclear blast would mean the difference between life and death. It's important to realize that such weapons will be relatively small. This reason for this is that when a bomb increases in size by a factor of ten, its destructiveness is only roughly doubled. Militaries employ large numbers of smaller nukes rather than just a few large ones; smaller bombs and warheads are more easily delivered and give more bang for the buck. Terrorists would use small bombs for much the same reason. Small nukes would do a lot of damage while being easy to conceal and deliver. While the anti-nuclear activists of the 1980s liked to describe the devastation the largest possible nuclear bomb would cause, in reality much smaller bombs would be used in almost any attack you might face in the future. You can survive quite close to "ground zero" if a small nuclear device explodes. The population in Nagasaki was unprepared for any sort of attack; but there were survivors who chanced to be in bomb shelters when the nuclear explosion occurred. Some of these people were just one third of a mile from ground zero when the bomb exploded. A good shelter can be the ticket to surviving a nuclear attack. Since the Nagasaki bomb was not all that different from those that might be encountered in a limited war or terrorist operation, you could survive a similar blast even if you're just a mile from ground zero.

Posted on the Pakistani web Posted on the Pakistani web site, this is the beginning of site, this is the beginning of advice given to the bin advice given to the bin Laden groupLaden group

SolutionsHow does this affect you?

It actually presents business and investment opportunities.

Honest and reliable threat assessments can save business billions of dollars and, perhaps, your life or the life of other workers.

Knowledge about the culture into which you expand can virtually eliminate some attacks.

Enlightened Self Interest can mitigate problems.

Knowledge, education on issues, public relations programs, honest coverage of issues can make those who simply seek power and money ineffective.

Understanding that news coverage, even government information, is not always accurate and serves economic, social, and political purposes. If something affects you INVESTIGATE for yourself.

Escape Many see escape as the answer. What happens if a deadly disease breaks out on Freedom Ship? It might be a good investment, but I wouldn’t want to live there.

Freedom Ship contains a city with 50,000 residents and many amenities.

Las Hardes

Every home and apartment is linked by a fiber-optic cable network. Privacy?

APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY

Solving problems provides both business opportunities and real solutions.

Mars before and after terraformation.

Japan’s Moon Base Plans

MOVING OFF WORLD

Will we take the problems with us? Or use it as an opportunity to build an Eden?

EARTH RISE

This may be the view from your new front porch.