FUTURE SHOCK IS NOW: SUCCEEDING WITH DECLINING STUDENT MARKETS AND THE "HELICOPTER PARENT”

JAY W. GOFFVICE PROVOST & DEAN FOR ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT

Founded 1870 | Rolla, Missouri, USA

Admissions SnapshotSeptember 2, 2009

Today

“It did not happen by Accident”

Only one public school in Missouri has had eight years consistent growth in quality, diversity & quantity of students.

Thanks to All for Another Great Year!

A Millennial Environmental Scan 2009-10 Goals & Initiatives Strategic Planning for Our Future

Core enrollment principles

No Enrollment Effort is Successful without QUALITY Academic Programs to Promote

Recruitment and Retention is an On-going, Multi-year PROCESS with Strong Access to Research and DATA

+80% of Enrollments come from REGIONAL student markets for BS/BA degrees

The Most Successful Recruitment Programs Clearly DIFFERENTIATE the Student Experience from Competitor’s Programs

The Most Successful Retention Programs Clearly Address Students’ Needs and Regularly ENGAGE Students in Academic and Non-Academic Programs

SOURCE: Bob Wilkinson

“Succeeding while Swimming Against the Tide”

RECORD GROWTH DECLINING INTEREST

Strategic Enrollment Management (SEM)at Missouri S&T 2001-2009

Our Previous Problem…

2009

SOURCE: ACT EIS 2008

> 5%

20,000 fewer potential engineering majors

College Bound ACT Tested Students Interested in Any Engineering Field

Missouri’s 2008 student funnel for ALL engineering fields

High School Seniors: 72,467 High School Graduates: 61,752 ACT Testers/College Bound: 47,240 Any Engineering Interest (all testers): 1,768 Any Engineering Interest, (+21 testers): 1,256

(21 = MO average score / 50%) Engineering Interest, +24 comp. score: 961

(24 = UM minimum for auto admission) Missouri S&T Freshmen Engineering 681

Enrollees:

SOURCES: MODESE 2009, ACT EIS 2008, PeopleSoft

71% S&T market share

Goals met!

Enrollment diversity

Actual    Goals2000 2005 2006 2007 2008   2012

Total Enrollment 4,626 5,602 5,858 6,167 6,371  6,550Undergraduate Students 3,698 4,313 4,515 4,753 4,912  4,800Graduate Students 928 1,289 1,343 1,414 1,459  1,750               Freshmen Class 696 914 977 1,051 1,056  975Transfer Class 210 314 266 276 286  300               American Indian/Alaskan Native 24  20 20 33 33  36Asian-American 117  131 198 198 191  240Black, Non-Hispanic 159  200 245 271 299  335Hispanic-American 53  104 137 139 132  190               Total Female 1,071 1,224 1,326 1,391 1,419  1,500Undergraduate Female 860 945 1,016 1,052 1,101  1,135Graduate Female 211 279 310 339 318  365Freshman Female 196 168 221 215 273  275Transfer Female 45 91 70 74 67  90               On-campus 4,393 5,101 5,389 5,649 5,768  5,825Distance Education 233 501 469 518 603  725

GOAL 2.1: Grow overall enrollment to 6,550 by 2011-12 with diversity that reflects the State of Missouri and the global environment in which we compete.

Strategic Plan

I. If we maintain current record market shares, we could decline 2% to 5% in new students each year after 2010.

II. If we continue to increase research, we will need more graduate students and better GA packages.

III. To maintain or grow quality, diversity and revenue levels the quantity of students will be key.

Upcoming Challenges

Challenge: changes in the college-bound student markets The Midwest and Northeast will experience a 4% to 10% decline

in high school graduates between 2009 – 2014 (WICHE)

The profile of college-bound students is rapidly becoming more ethnically diverse and female dominant (NCES, WICHE, ACT, College Board)

The number of students interested in engineering, computer science, and natural science degrees has declined to record lows (ACT, CIRP)

More full-time college freshmen are choosing to start at two-year colleges (IPED, MODHE)

More students are enrolling in more than one college at a time (National Student Clearinghouse)

Future student market growth will include more students requiring financial aid and loans to complete a degree (WICHE)

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Source: Chronicle of Higher Education Almanac 2006-07

Projected change in high school graduates 2007-2017

> 20%+11% to +20%

0% to +10%

Decreases

+1

+10

WICHE, 2008

National vs.. Regional Trends

By 2012, Missouri will have 4,000 fewer high school graduates each year

WICHE, 2008

Increasing the college going rate is key

College Progression Rates in Missouri

NCHEMS 2006

For every 100 Ninth Graders

# Graduate from High

School

# Enter Colleg

e

# Are Still Enrolled Their Sophomore

Year

Percentage of 9th graders who graduate from HS on time, go directly to college,

return for their second year, and

graduate within 150% of program time

Missouri

100 77.2 44.1 28.8 20.9

Nation 100 68.6 42.3 28.4 19.7

Areas of Concern Along the P-12 Pipeline

Only 2 of 10 eighth graders ready for college prep curriculum in high school (ACT 2008)

College-Going Rate (%) - 2006 Fall First-Time Freshmen Directly out of High School

Missouri: 57.1 Nation: 61.6 A Larger Proportion of Missouri Students Starting at Community

Colleges Freshmen Headcount Distribution at Missouri Colleges &

Universities (DHE 2008) 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Community College 31% 24% 31% 30% 36% 41%

Public College/University

51% 55% 47% 46% 42% 39%

Private College/University

18% 21% 22% 24% 24% 20%

Total Freshmen 39,505 33,560 35,034 35,184 41,135 48,181

Labor Demand vs. Student Interests

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov/emp/home.htm

Source: CIRP

Change in Intended Major 1976-77 to 2006-07

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

Business Engineering Education BiologicalSciences

ComputerScience

SocialSciences

Art, Music,Drama

HealthProfessions

76-77 86-87 96-97 06-07College Board, 2007

Basic enrollment funnel

Do not discount the value of funnel management and analysis

ACT data makes the process much easier to engage on macro and micro levels

46% “Economy has Changed Which College Students will Attend”

SOURCE: Longmire & Company, Inc. 2009 “Study of the Impact of the Economy on Enrollment”

27% planning to submit fewer applications

SOURCE: Longmire & Company, Inc. 2009 “Study of the Impact of the Economy on Enrollment”

76% indicated they would be “somewhat” or “very likely” to consider the more expensive institution if it could deliver greater value

SOURCE: Longmire & Company, Inc. 2009 “Study of the Impact of the Economy on Enrollment”

Identifying interests of incoming students

SOURCE: ACT’s AIM 2008

Incoming students’ self-identified interests and needs

SOURCE: ACT’s AIM 2008

Percent For Whom Financing was a Major Concern 1992-93 to 2006-07 (Selected Years)

Source: CIRP

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

92-93 94-95 96-97 97-98 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07

Public Univ Private Univ Public 4-Yr Private (Non-Sect) 4-Yr

College Board, 2007

Framework for the Generation

“We must support the students we have, not the students we wish existed.”

Scott Swail,

Education Policy Institute, 2008

Who are these “newbies”? What forces have shaped

them? What expectations do they

have about college and the nature of the work world?

Who are Millennials

Born between 1984 and 2004

Products of a societal shift from an adult-centric to a child-centric society

Leading edge: Started college in 2002

Top Defining Moments

September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attract Columbine Iraq War Oklahoma City bombing Princess Di’s death Clinton impeachment trial

ADAPTED FROM: Graduate Management Admission Council, Millenials Go to Work, 2006

Defining Adjectives

Special Sheltered Confident Team-oriented Achieving Pressured Conventional

ADAPTED FROM: Neil Howe and William Strauss, “Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation,” Vintage Books, New York, 2000

Defining Messages

Be smart—you are special. Leave no one behind. Connect 24/7. Achieve now! Serve your community.

ADAPTED FROM: Graduate Management Admission Council, Millenials Go to Work, 2006, Connecting Generations: The Sourcebook, Claire Raines

Core Values and Traits

Optimism Civic duty Confidence Inclusion Morality Savvy (rather than “street smart”) Achievement

ADAPTED FROM: Graduate Management Admission Council, Millenials Go to Work, 2006

Managing and Motivating Millennials

Loyal and hardworking when they see value in what they are doing.

Energetic and need continual stimulation and challenge…will move on quickly if bored or dissatisfied.

88% have established five-year goals…already.

Source: Understand Millennial Generation To Manage Them Successfully, www.digitu.com, Kenneth Judd, 2005

ADAPTED FROM: Graduate Management Admission Council, Millenials Go to Work, 2006

What Will Attract Them

Offer teamwork opportunities Fairness (equal treatment across broad

categories of students/workers) Protection against risk Solid work-life balance Longer career plans Proximity to mom & dad

Neil Howe & William Strauss, “Millennials Go to College,” AACRAO and LifeCourse Associates, 2003

ADAPTED FROM: Graduate Management Admission Council, Millenials Go to Work, 2006

90% of parents choose their kids' colleges on the web and the visit 82% plan to play a pivotal role in helping their

children make the final decision about college.  Only 17% will entrust their child to make that

decision independently The internet is playing an increasing role in

higher education recruitment Recent data demonstrates the need for

institutions to make explicit overtures to parents on the web 

SOURCE: Circling Over Enrollment: The E-Expectations of the Parents of College-Bound Students, 2009

Increase Success of Students Retention Rates Graduation Rates

Increase College Going Rate & Access1. Access & Affordability2. Pipeline of College Ready Students3. Strategic Partnerships4. Outreach/Education5. Scholarships

Expanding Current Markets & Capturing New Markets1. Out-of-state students2. Transfer Students3. Female Students4. Underrepresented Minority Students5. International Students6. Graduate Students7. Nontraditional Students

Strategic Enrollment Management Plan 2009-2014

FUTURE SHOCK IS NOW: “SUCCEEDING WITH DECLINING STUDENT MARKETS AND THE "HELICOPTER PARENT”

JAY W. GOFFVICE PROVOST & DEAN FOR ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT

Founded 1870 | Rolla, Missouri, USA

Admissions SnapshotSeptember 2, 2009