Future Role of Satellite Data in NCEP’s Numerical Models

GOES Users Conference

Boulder, CO

Dr. Louis Uccellini

Director, NCEP

October 1, 2002

NCEP: “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

Overview

Background: Three major components for satellite assimilation into models

Motivation: Use of satellite data in OPERATIONAL numerical models

Current Status: Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

Future: Role of satellite data in “unified” modeling system for climate and weather prediction

Historical Aspects of Data Used in Numerical Models

• Insitu

data

1990

• Limited use of derived sounding data in models

• All LEO

• 250K obs/day

• Atmosphere

1960 2000

• Satellite radiances ~85 % of data in models

• Nearly all LEO

• 1 million obs/day

• Surface/ocean atmosphere

Key factors: data/instruments science of data assimilation computer and communications capacity

2002

• Satellite radiances ~97% of data

• Predominantly LEO; some GEO• 95 million obs/day

• Surface/ocean atmosphere

Operational

NH SH

Impact of Satellite Data on Operational Forecasts

Reanalysis

NH SH

Operational

NH SH

Ano

mal

y C

orre

latio

n

Model Improvement Related to:•Use of Radiances•AMSU•Model Resolution•Physics

Motivation for a NASA/NOAA/DoD Partnership to Address Future Challenges

• Improve exploitation of existing satellite data in operational models– LEO and GEO– Infrared and Microwave– Operational and Research

• Prepare for future data – Reduce assessment time from launch to application– Account for much larger data volume– Need for an end-to-end instrument design and

application

• Leverage multi-agency resources

5-Order Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over 10 Years

Year

Count

(Mill

ions)

Daily Upper Air Observation Count

Year

Satellite Instruments by Platform

Count

NPOESSMETEOPNOAA

WindsatGOESDMSP

1990 201020001990 2010 2010-250chYear

2002

Satellite Data Utilization# of obs (millions/day)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2002 2003 2004

ProcessedSelected

95% ofuseable data

95% ofuseable data

48% ofuseable data#

of o

bs (

mil

/day

)

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001

• Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models• Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from

the advanced satellite sensors• Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure• Develop common fast radiative transfer system• Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather

and climate predictions• Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new

satellite technology from two years to one

Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models

Goals:

JCSDA Partners

NASA/Goddard

Data Assimilation Office

NASA/Goddard

Seasonal InterannualPrediction Project

NOAA/NESDIS

Office of Research & Applications

NOAA/OAR

Office of Weather and Air Quality

NOAA/NCEP

Environmental Modeling Center

US Navy

Office of Naval Research

US Air Force

Air Weather Agency

(XOW)

Organizational Structure NASA & NOAA

Joint Oversight BoardDirectors of:

NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini(Chair) Goddard ESD: F. Einaudi

NOAA ORA: M. ColtonNOAA OWAQR: D. Rogers

Joint Center StaffCenter Director: Stephen Lord (Acting)

Deputy Director: Fuzhong Weng – NESDISDeputy Director: L.-P. Riishojgaard - DAO

Technical Liaisons:EMC – J. Derber

NSIPP – M. RieneckerOWAQR – A. Gasiewski

ORA – D. TarpleySenior Scientist – TBD

Contractor Support: George Ohring (NESDIS)Secretary

AdvisoryPanel

Rotating Chair

Between NASA, NOAA

ScienceSteering

Committee

Recent Accomplishments• Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models

• Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002)• Operational implementation (October, 2002)

• New Data used in NCEP operational models• SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates• SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water • GOES-10 IR radiances• QuikSCAT data

• Preparation for AIRS• Computer installed at NASA to deliver data within 180 minutes of ingest• Fast radiative model developed, documented, delivered, undergoing testing• Sample data set delivered to NWP Centers

• “Foundation” Science Issues and Priorities agreed to: Basis for AO

“Foundation” Science

Radiation

Surface

Focus: Development of fundamental improvements to radiative transfer model to allow better use of radiances. - Soundings near cloud; hence, emphasis on microwave

Focus: Improvement of surface emissivity models to allow better use of observations over land, snow, and ocean. - Improve use of data close to the surface.

Scientific Priorities in Next Five Years

1. Improve radiative transfer model

2. Prepare for advanced instruments

3. Advance techniques for assimilating cloud and precipitation information

4. Improve emissivity models and surface products

5. Improve use of satellite data in ocean data assimilation

Next Steps• Infrastructure:

– Data lines

– Computer (NASA/NOAA exploring enhanced computer capabilities)

• Science Priorities: Develop Announcement of Opportunity to engage research community in the “foundation” science (released Sept. ’02)

• Output– AIRS Advanced Infared Sounder

– IASI Interoferometric Atmospheric Sounding Instrument

– NPP (CrIS, ATMS) NPOESS Preparatory Program (Cross track Infared Sounder,

– ABI/S Advanced Baseline Imager and Sounder

– GIFTS Geosynchronous Infared Fourier Transform Spectrometer

– SSMIS Special Sensor Microwave Imager/SounderAdvanced Technology Microwave Sounder

GIFTS- IOMI

• Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer – Indian Ocean METOC (Meteorology and Oceanography) Imager– Will provide highly detailed information about

temperature, water vapor and winds to aid in the observation and prediction of severe weather conditions and to extend the range of global weather forecasts.

– Scheduled for launch in late 2005 – over Western Hemisphere in 2006, then to Indian Ocean in 2007

– Provides radiance information over a 3000 x 3000 km area in < 10 minutes

– Provides pathway to GOES - R

GIFTS - IOMI

• Challenges

– Volume of data

– How to use in “targeted“ mode

– GEO vs LEO for infrared information

– Validation, assessment, field programs (THORPEX)

Next Steps

• Solidify JCSDA

• Management, Advisory Panels

• Space

• Computer Resources

• AO based on foundation science issues (Sept. ’02)

• AIRS Assessment NPOESS preparation

• Get ready for GIFTS

• Address Implications of common global model needed for the JCSDA

Framework of Where NCEP is Headed:FY2005 and Beyond

JCSDA(distributed)

Global “Test Bed”

will be needed

Possible Boulder

“Test Bed”

…

Summary

• Satellite data critical to NWP/forecast advances• JCSDA provides a bridge from assessment to

operational utilization of satellite data• Progress being made (Quikscat, TRMM)

– AIRS assessment next major activity

• Issues being addressed for existing and future satellite systems:– GEO and LEO– Microwave and Infrared