Future Prospect of FTAs for the Asia -Pacific Region · Future Prospect of FTAs for the Asia...
Transcript of Future Prospect of FTAs for the Asia -Pacific Region · Future Prospect of FTAs for the Asia...
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Future Prospect of FTAs for the Asia-Pacific Region
Dr. Mignonne Man-jung Chan
Senior Advisor Chinese Taipei APEC Study Center
2013.02.04.
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Contents
• Regional Integration: Revisited • Rationale • Functional Utilities • Sequence of Integration • Cases: Mirrors of the Past • The Case of Asian Regional Integration
• Taiwan’s Prospect for Joining Regional Integration Schemes
• Implications for MNCs
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Regional Integration: Rationale
• Legal Foundation: Article 24 of GATT & Article 5 of GATS;
• Building Block vs. Stumbling Block
• Competitive Liberalization • Catalyst for Globalization; • Maximize bargaining chips • Minimize negative effects of being-Marginalized
• Leadership Contention: the invincible & the inevitable?
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FTA
EU 1992
Political Union Economic Union Common Market Customs Union
Sequence of Integration
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Regional Integration: Functional Utilities
• Economics • Production specialization
& efficient growth • Path-finder for
globalization • Supply chain connectivity • Benefit of Technogical
innovation • Standardization & mutual
recognition
• Politics/Military • Incentive for political
cooperation • Mitigate potential
confrontation • Upgrade bargaining skills • Regulatory convergence • Technological exchange • Stage preview for dispute
settlement
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NATO: Yes, but… TAFTA: No?...Perhaps
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“Fortress Europe”: a Nightmare for the U.S. in 1992
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NAFTA: a Safety Net?
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Asia’s Bottom-Up Approach to Integration
(ADB in 2008) • Asia’s Formal Economic Cooperation Lagged
behind Market-Driven Integration: the “flying geese” development relies on policies that welcome foreign companies, encourage technological upgrading, and build strong connectivity with world markets, as well as on their proximity to Asian neighbors following similar strategies;
• Market-Friendly, Multi-Track, and Multi-Speed Open Regionalism;
• The Resurgence of the PRC Has Given Impetus to Asian Integration: WTO membership & FDI with Technological Spill-over Effects
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APEC: Hit or Miss?
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Current Regional Economic Challenges
Competitive Liberalization at Play: TPP, RCEP, ECFA, etc.
Supply Chain connectivity
Promoting APEC’s Growth Strategy (2010 Yokohama Leaders Statement): Balanced, Inclusive, Sustainable, innovative & Secure Growth
Toward a “Blue Economy” in APEC?
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• Balanced Growth • Inclusive Growth • Innovative Growth • Secured Growth • Sustainable Growth
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ASEAN: Hub or Spoke?
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RCEP vs. TPP:
ever Achievable FTAAP?
14
Driving Force
APEC
Bogor Goal
ASEAN++ (RCEP)
REI
TPP
ASEAN +1
CJK
ASEAN+3 (EAFTA)
ASEAN+6 (CEPEA)
Driving Force
ASEAN
ASEAN+8 (EAS)
FTAAP
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TPP: Invitation vis-à-vis Application
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BRIC: Potential Markets
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The More, the Merrier: BRICS, CIVITS, & What Not?
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US & EU: Sinking Together (2009~2012?)
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Declining Empire of Pax America?
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After QE1 & QE2
: Things will get back to normal before long
What goes down, must come up. While no one knows how long it will take the economy to rebound, a major economy like the US is “too big to fail” and we should be able to count on the Fed to make sure the recession is not unduly prolonged.
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PIIGS: Domino Effect of Euro
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Reality: Bleak Outlook
The outlook for the US looks bleak. Avoiding a double dip scenario is not as straightforward as creating growth & output. The US economy needs to create 187,000 jobs a month, growing at a rate of 3.3% to achieve a healthy 5% unemployment rate by the year 2020.However, with the current rate of growth, it is not surprising that McKinsey estimates that it would take 5 years to recover from the current recession.
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Risky Gambles: QE3
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Currency Wars: Punishing Appreciation Thy
Neighbors
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Japan’s Export Slump on EU Decline
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Reshaping International Economic Order?
• IMF: Impotent on Shaping Nations’ Responsible Monetary Policies
• WTO: Impasse of DDA
• UNFCCC: No Consensus on Managing GHG Emission
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Discredited System, Dwindling Influence?!
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Declining Empire?
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Joseph Stiglitz
The U.S. & Europe are bound for failure if they undertake “another costly experiment with ideas that fail repeatedly”.
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Death of Liberal Market
Economics?
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State Market Economy:
An Inspiration?
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A Resurgent China: Done That, Been There !
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The “Tribute System” in Ming & Ching Dynasties:
Give-more-than-Take International Order
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Sino-U.S. Strategic & Economic Dialogue Chimerica?
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Leadership Transition in China:
Tough on the U.S.?
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Soft Power
Hard Power
王 道
ECFA
EAS
APEC
ASEAN+3
Currency
War
South China Sea
TPP
TRA & Arms Sales
霸道 S&ED
Axis of all Possibilities
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Challenges:
A Possible Dream of
a Body-Mind-Soul Trilogy?
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APEC Official Observers • Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat
• Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC)
• Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)
© 2011 APEC Secretariat
Body: Institutional Arrangements
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Mind: Goal Setting, Modus Operandi & Initiatives
•Bogor Goals
•Osaka Action Plan
•Open Regionalism
•Concerted Unilateralism/Cr
•EVSL
•Pathfinder
•Blue Economy
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Soul: Balanced Approach to Non-Zero-Sum Game
•Flexible, voluntary, non-binding;
•Various paces of change;
•Mutual Respect, Mutual Benefit;
•2010/2020;
•Managing Crises on the Same Boat
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Implications for MNCs
• Barriers to Integration: • At the border • Cross the Border • Behind the Border
• Contributing to Growth with CSR: • Balanced Growth; • Inclusive Growth; • Innovative Growth; • Secured Growth; • Sustainable Growth
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Thank You!
• Regional Integration: Revisited • Rationale • Functional Utilities • Sequence of Integration • Cases: Mirrors of the Past • The Case of Asian Regional Integration
• Taiwan’s Prospect for Joining Regional Integration Schemes
• Implications for MNCs