Future Powertrain: Latest insights from the largest real-world … · 2017. 3. 6. · 3...
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Future Powertrain: Latest insights from the largest real-world emissions test programme Nick Molden 1 March 2017
Transcript of Future Powertrain: Latest insights from the largest real-world … · 2017. 3. 6. · 3...
Future Powertrain:Latest insights from
the largest real-world emissions test programme
Nick Molden
1 March 2017
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• Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis
• Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart
• Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data
• Founded in 2011
• 1300+ vehicles tested
• OEM benchmarking
• Confidential testing
• Regulatory surveillance
EA credentials
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• Transitional period with competing powertrain technologies with different advantages
• In 20-30 year time horizon, passenger cars will be extensively electrified
• Diesel is facing a growing challenge in the transition
• Made worse by the old official regulations casting a long shadow
• Certain technologies will diminish that were regulatory artefacts
• Consumer confusion will increase
This is a market and environmental problem
The challenge
COMPETING TECHNOLOGIES
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• From a consumer point of view the four key factors are:
1. Fuel efficiency
2. Rate of depreciation
3. Carbon dioxide emissions
4. Air pollutant emissions
• Either directly of importance, or indirectly through policy and incentives
Four dimensions
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Main technologies
Fuel efficiency Depreciation In-use CO2 NOx, CO
Diesel
Gasoline
Gasoline HEV
PHEV – short trip
PHEV – long trip
EV
Diesel’s position is threatened unless low NOx can be demonstrated
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Advance of gasoline HEVs
• HEVs historically had urban MPG advantage
• May overtake diesel in motorway driving this year
• Further advanced in US
• Even now, has emits less CO2
than like-for-like diesel
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Ext
ra-u
rba
n Im
pe
ria
l MP
G
Model Year
Linear (Diesel EU) Linear (Gasoline hybrid EU)
THE SHADOW OF BAD REGULATION
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• Real nitrogen oxide emissions average four times the legal limits MPG for model year 2016 vehicles is on average 29% below official figures in real world
• Carbon dioxide emissions are on average 41% above official levels
• Performance differs significantly between models homologated to same standard
• Due to mixture of unrealistic test, optimisation and defeat strategies
• WLTC will not align official to real-world, and its role in consumer labelling remains unclear
• RDE will reduce exceedances, but is not designed as a comparative tool
The issue
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NEDC legacy
-45.0
-40.0
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
EQ
UA
Mp
g v
ari
an
ce t
o o
ffic
ial M
PG
Engine size class (litres)
Diesel Petrol
• The smaller the engine, the bigger the gap between real-world and official MPG
• Sub-1.5 litre gasoline engines have particularly large deficits
• 4x4s look much cleaner in real-world driving, but narrative is different
• 48% of 4WD achieve Conformity Factor <=2.1
• Compared to 28% of 2WD
BUILDING TRANSPARENCY AND TRUST
THROUGH INDEPENDENT RATINGS
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EQUA Aq for NOx
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• The EQUA Aq Index has now rated 12 diesels as A
• Means that 80mg/km is met even in real-world driving
• Conformity factor of <<1 possible
Is it too late?
Governments and cities will have strong influence in outcome
How clean is diesel?
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Diesel vs HEV
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• MPG values for almost all vehicles on sale in last five years
• Around 70,000 model variants
• Using proprietary model based on test database
Comprehensive alternative to official system
EQUA Mpg
• “A1” to “H5”
• A to H for absolute emissions
• 1 to 5 for proximity to official – “honesty”
• 39% average CO2 excess – 189 g/km
• 1.5 litre engines better than most highly down-sized
• 2.0-3.0 litre engines most honest
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EQUA CO2
