Future periscope: Europe in

2030 and beyond

• Stephanie Daimer, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and

Innovation Research

• Jerome Glenn, Millennium Project

• Nikolaos Konstantinos, DG Research, European Commission

• Gernot Spiegelberg, Siemens Corporate Technology

• Moderator: Richard L. Hudson, Science|Business

• (Video: Paul Polman, CEO, Unilever)

Future periscope: Europe in

2030 and beyond

Stephanie Daimer

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation

Research ISI

http://eravisions.eu

VERA Scenario 3:

Solutions apart –Local is beautiful

© VERA consortium, 2015

Getting Ready for Europe 2030

Jerome C. Glenn, CEOThe Millennium Project

Inevitability of New Economics

• Concentration of wealth is increasing

• Income gaps are widening

• Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm

• Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually better than labor

• Future technologies can replace much of human labor

• Long-term structural unemployment is a “business as usual” surprise free forecast

• What can we do about this?

The Millennium Project has conducting a similar study, for global 2050 issues

It has created three Work/Tech 2050 Global Scenarios

You can draw on these for European Implications:

1. It’s Complicated - A Mixed Bag

2. Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair

3. If Humans Were Free – The Self-Actualizing Economy

Background at:

http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/AI-Work.html

Some Factors to consider

Next Technologies (NT) = all together:

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics

Synthetic Biology & Genomics

Computational Science

Cloud & Big Data Analytics

Artificial & Augmented Reality

Nanotechnology

IoT, Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybody, the Semantic Web

Quantum computing

Tele-Presence, Holographic Communications

Intelligence augmentation

Collective Intelligence

3D/4D Printing of Materials and Biology

Drones, Driverless Cars (and other autonomous vehicles)

Conscious-Technology

Synergies Among These

Synergies of photovoltaics, robotics, satellites, AI, drones, ICT, and generic engineering

Three forms of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence2. Artificial General Intelligence3. Artificial Super Intelligence

Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991

By 2030 millions of

people could become

augmented geniuses, and

what could they create?

How to keep track and anticipate such change?

Create the

European Knowledge Space

A European Knowledge Space to improve the collective intelligence of Europe

The Knowledge Future: Intelligent policy choices for Europe 2050

Policy Recommendations

Principle 1: An open knowledge system in Europe

C: Create a European Knowledge Space …. An on-line framework open to all citizens for research, analysis, debate and sharing, this will enable policy-makers, business leaders, scientists, technologists and the general public to access all knowledge available, to exchange information and to deliberate options for addressing societal challenges. An integrated framework of policies, incentives and ICT tools to permit greater sharing, debate and participation in the results and challenges of fast-changing science and technology to address societal challenges, it can form a core objective of Framework Programmes of the future.

For further information

Jerome C. Glenn+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax

Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org

www.StateoftheFuture.org

Global Futures Intelligence System: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html

2015-16 State of the Future: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html

Futures Research Methodology 3.0: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html

Future Periscope

Three scenarios in five minutes from EU R&I

Strategic ForesightNikos Kastrinos

Team leader: Foresight

European Commission, DG Research and InnovationAll views presented are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the

views of the European Commission

Three scenarios from our recent Strategic Foresight exercise*

• Data-trading: (materialist culture and people own all their "personal data") What if … aggressive protection of personal data as IPR?

• A state of abundant and (environmentally) cheap energy: The Solar eco-bike (inclusive society with an ecological economy) The New Marigold Hotel (cheap and abundant energy and new sources of value)

• The rising politics of health: sick-healthy-enhanced; health inequalities taking over the politics of "equal opportunities"

* Strategic foresight : Towards the third strategic programme of Horizon 2020 http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/strategic-foresight-pbKI0215938/

Data-trading: unlikely and counter-intuitive

• Why such a scenario?• Data-driven innovation: a promising business area; and• Minimum income guarantees are increasingly demanded

• Is strong protection of personal data possible?• Is free use of personal data (of others) acceptable?• Will security trump privacy?

• In Europe 2030 much more data about everything (including all of us) will be accessible to everybody.

• Secrets will be scarce, expensive and be subject to fast diminishing returns.• Keeping people curious will be the challenge of the future.

• Or will block-chain technology change all that?

A state of abundant and (environmentally) cheap energy

• The promise:

• The cost of renewables is falling

• Batteries and infrastructures are improving

• Energy efficiency is gaining ground

• The challenge:

• Decarbonising transitions – switching costs, correctly pricing public goods, organizing for the circular economy etc.

• The energy needs of war

• Geopolitical reshuffling

• In Europe 2030, politics permitting, energy will be cheaper and more environmentally friendly making important positive contributions to people's standard of living.

The rising politics of health

• "Aspiration" increasingly trumps "fate" in life-span and quality-of-life

• Health inequalities (and inequalities of access to health-care) become politically important.

• Health research becomes even more politicised (e.g. with strong arguments for and against ethical regulations)….

• In Europe in 2030 public health budgets will be more important than today, and public insurance systems will be covering a lot of what today is seen as "enhancement". Sports leagues for the "enhanced" may have already taken hold.

Thank you for your attention

ec.europa.eu/research/foresight/index.cfm

visit the EU booth

go to ec.europa.eu/research

Session FUTURE PERISCOPE

MOBILITY 4.0Gernot Spiegelberg

R&D Siemens AG, CT RDA CES

Urbanization Demographic changeClimate change

Utilize sustainable

power source for

mobility

Spend less energy in

total for mobility

Support people

to get from

A to B hassle free

Use intermodality to

handle peoples

demand for mobility

Safely and convenient

extend mobility

"Zero Emission“ and

“Zero Noise”

by EV

“Smart Mobility“ and

“Smart Logistics”

through Telematics

“Lifestyle“with

“Zero Accidents” by

Autonomous Driving

eMobility Autonomous Devices

Will lead to

"smarter" Mobility” with

“Services based on Cloud Information” ? © Foto: Nissan © Foto: Fotolia

Ride on Demand

Siemens Picture of the Future gives information regarding Global Megatrends

Ride on Demand

eCar

3 independent trends converging lead to new concepts

Autonomous car

Mobility as a Service

no further need

for

private ownership

eCaras autonomous agent in Internet of Things

focus on TCO,

reliability and

customer satisfaction

Infrastructure

optimized on TCO

Infrastructure

focused on TCO

the future of mobility based on customers view: “Mobility as a Service”

towards intermodal transportationparametrised transportation seat

with virtual personal belongings

Cloud-based

Systems

personally parametrised

comfort via cloud data

new kind of understanding of devices may occur :personally parametrised transportation seat

The world will change…..…..let us change the world