Future of Voice & WebRTC - Implications & Opportunities for telcos (service providers)
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Transcript of Future of Voice & WebRTC - Implications & Opportunities for telcos (service providers)
WebRTC – Implications & Opportunities for Telcos
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
adapted from presentation at WebRTC Expo SF, Nov 2012
[email protected] @disruptivedean
Contact [email protected] for information on workshops & consulting
projects about WebRTC & Future of Voice. Watch for upcoming reports & subscribe to the
Disruptive Wireless blog http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscribe-via-email.html
Introduction
This is adapted from a Nov 29th 2012 presentation by Dean
Bubley at the WebRTC Expo & Conference in San Francisco
It assumes a working knowledge of what WebRTC technology is,
and how it works.
If you are looking for a WebRTC introduction, check out: www.webrtcworld.com/ http://bit.ly/xUfKud http://amzn.to/TS7Adp
This presentation focuses on issues for telecom operators
To understand WebRTC implications, it is necessary to first have
a good idea of what is happening to voice comms anyway
More WebRTC detail & analysis is available from Disruptive
Analysis’ consulting services, research reports, workshops & blog
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to MNOs, vendors, regulators & investors
Focus on 3G, 4G, operator strategies, VoIP, OTT, disruption
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
Workshops on Future of Voice & #TelcoOTT With Martin Geddes Consulting (credited for various slides here)
Next events in London & US in H1’13 (futureofvoice.com)
Twitter @disruptivedean .
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
To understand the impact of WebRTC on telcos, it is first important to understand their
current marketplace & trends. WebRTC is then a catalyst & accelerant
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
It’s all looking pretty grim anyway
Voice & SMS saturation & cannibalisation
Regulation & competitive impacts
Weak content & VAS propositions
Economic pressures
Ecosystem competition
Connecting the last unconnected
Smartphones & data growth
Better segmentation, pricing & promotion
Innovative services & enablers
Embracing & exploiting fragmentation
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Basic services’ demand & pricing is falling
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
“It’s all those nasty OTTs’ fault!!”
STOP looking for a scapegoat
& take responsibility
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Voice ≠ Telephony
• Now: 2G & 3G • Future: Smartphones & LTE
Voice
Telephony
Voice
Telephony
Video, context, sense Video
Gaming, CEBP,
surveillance, social
voice, TV voice etc
Voicemail
Conferencing
PTT
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Service
e.g. Telephony
Product
e.g. Skype,
IP-PBX
Feature
e.g. Zynga IM
Function
We have seen a years-long trend for billable
“services” to drift down to ownable products,
and eventually appear as mere features of
functions of other apps or even device OSs
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
A telephony demand cliff?
It’s not just so-called OTT competitors, it’s apps removing the need for phone calls.
When was the last time you phoned a travel agent? Taxi apps are better than phoning
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Telephony: Catastrophe imminent?
Price & revenue Demand Supply
Core question: Can data services offset the decline of voice & messaging?
Uncomfortable answer: probably not, based on recent evidence
Disruption and innovation are both inevitable
& essential, irrespective of WebRTC
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Voice & messaging go in-context
Telephony and messaging is increasingly done “in-context” or
“in-app”. But in many cases, telco APIs don’t offer the right
“raw ingredients” or business model.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Peak telephony & SMS is here
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mobile core services revenue,
indicative W Europe
BASELINE, ie excluding WebRTC Total c40% fall
from peak
Mobile telephony
SMS & today’s
mobile data services
Telephony c80%
fall from peak
Even without WebRTC, serious revenue falls are expected in basic telco services.
Given that telephony is >100 years old, it is now looking an old & creaky product
Source: Disruptive Analysis, Telco 2.0 Analysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Personalisation is done by people
Mobile calls
SMS
MMS
Mobile calls
SMS
(RCS?)
99% of personal
comms for all
use cases
Lowest common
denominator just
when needed
User-selected
portfolio:
perfect fit for
specific use
cases
+
“Ubiquitous” & standardised interoperable telco services will increasingly be used only
as lowest-common denominators, when no better app/service is available for a given
instance of communication. Everyone will curate their own service portfolio.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Fragmentation is valuable
Convergence & standards
Fragmentation & innovation
… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient.
They are irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst.
It will fragment “because it
can”. Consumer need for
ubiquity is over-rated
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Device diversity = OTT inevitable
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6
# connected devices owned
Probability of all of a user’s Internet / messaging devices being on a single telco’s network
Free 3rd party WiFi
Shared data plans only a
partial response
Users will want same apps & service ID on every device – but will inevitably have
multiple telcos. This means that OTT-style services will be mandatory
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Telcos already exploiting Internet
Owned & operated by mobile operators
Usable by anyone, not just subscribers
Via apps & public Internet
Telco-OTT Services
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
OTT-style services offer the only hope for continued
telco services growth & increased relevance
Harsh truth: Telco-OTT mandatory
• Telephony & SMS prices have peaked
• Telephony & SMS demand has peaked
• APIs, HD, Video, Bundles only delay the inevitable
• Need for new voice-based services beyond “calls”
• Too fast-evolving for new “federated” services
• Too uncertain / innovation-driven for standards
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Comms
Content
Cloud
Connec-
tivity
Over 100 identified
Telco-OTT products in the
market.
Telco-OTT: more than just VoIP/RTC
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Biz models may not be obvious
…. Carriers need to move away
from the obsession with
“subscriptions” with
WebRTC/OTT
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
WebRTC: game-changer & threat
The future?
Microsoft CU-RTC-WEB ???? In the crossfire
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
WebRTC is a magnifier & catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
My enemy’s enemy is my friend…. ???
“WebRTC will hurt OTTs more than Telcos!”
… & create new, better, more disruptive OTT players.
Great.
Actually, my enemy’s enemy is probably even nastier & uglier than the
current bunch. Anything that damages Skype is bad news for telcos too
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Telco involvement with WebRTC
AT&T most visible
Participant in standards, eg proposing push for notifications
Developer-centric approach
Telefonica likely a major player
TokBox acquisition
Firefox OS advocacy
TUMe & other TefDig products
DT & FT at recent events
FT on W3C WG
Vodafone, Telecom Italia, SKT, Smart, China Unicom also on WG
Increasing anecdotal evidence from client interest
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Multiple constituencies involved
Telco WebRTC interest
VoLTE & Telco-OTT teams
curious/worried by WebRTC
Enterprise VoIP / UC /
conferencing moving to WebRTC
Ground-up interest in
WebRTC (in labs etc)
Apps, developer & HTML5
initiatives adding WebRTC
+ Policy / broadband teams: Can we detect / block / bill for it?
Regulatory: What does this mean, how do we do 911 etc?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Overlapping universes
Telco services
Pure OTT apps
WebRTC
“Gateway into IMS” Softphones etc
Browser-based Telco-OTT Network & platform APIs
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
“Easy options” for Telcos+WebRTC
Charging platform
Legal requirements
Notifications
Numbers / directories
WiFi access (in theory…)
Network QoS (in theory…)
But does any of this really move the needle?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Some myths to avoid for WebRTC
Quality & QoS
Impending quali-pocalypse
Users appear to care less than expected Some high-Q use cases (eg
sales call)
Internet vs. non-Internet
Quality driven by much more than network Eg Coverage (esp for LTE)
WiFi
“Seamless connection”
HetNets
Mobile carriers are very
important or in control
The user & operator are the
only stakeholders
A quick diversion to some pet topics of mine:
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Main WebRTC strategies for SPs
Extend on-net services
Turbocharge Telco-OTT
apps
Sell packaged WebRTC
services to subscriber
Enhance developer platform
Perpetuate legacy models
“Put lipstick on a pig” – eg RCS
Improves
relevance… but
revenue?
Sell genuine “new
stuff” to existing
audience
Lower
costs/complexity &
improve reach &
“virality”
Also: invest / incubate
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Conclusions: WebRTC & SPs
No definitive answers yet
Makes the threats worse & the opportunities better Battle new OTTs or old ones: result is the same
Extending “reach” for poor services doesn’t help
SPs need to exploit WebRTC to create or resell
Avoid the “federation trap”
Manage diverse internal stakeholders & teams WebRTC will be pervasive across telco “domains”
Be nimble
Contact [email protected] for information on workshops & consulting
projects about WebRTC & Future of Voice. Watch for upcoming reports & subscribe to the
Disruptive Wireless blog http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscribe-via-email.html
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012 December 2012
Contact [email protected] for information on workshops & consulting
projects about WebRTC & Future of Voice. Watch for upcoming reports & subscribe to the
Disruptive Wireless blog http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscribe-via-email.html