Future of TV - Distribution Version - MAR09 - Final 2.0
Transcript of Future of TV - Distribution Version - MAR09 - Final 2.0
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Dr. Seth GeigerPresident SmithGeiger, LLC
Digital Media Trends andDigital Media Trends and
the Future of Televisionthe Future of Television
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11The Current LandscapeThe Current Landscape
TV Still Matters!
Viewership remains high Strongest and most effective promotional
platform
Significant driver of web consumptionThe Fundamental Disconnect
TV Viewers have never been happier The industry has never been more challenged
Whats Next What are the emerging trends in the TVmarketplace?
How can we assert leadership and build thenext generation of TV around these shifts?
The Future of TV is Now
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225 New Truths5 New Truths
Online video has become ubiquitous, digital
media consumption has become the norm.
1. Media consumers are dictating the pace of
change.
2. Digital media are now playing afundamental role in the TV experience.
3. The maturation of the web from a signpost
to an entertainment experience is being
driven by branded television content.
4. Viewers are heavily engaged with digital
media less so with linear television.
5. Television still matters, but it can no
longer succeed as a stand alone platform.
The Future of TV is Now
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335 New Truths5 New Truths
Online video consumption has becomeubiquitous 82% are watching online video,30% watch daily (49% of 16 to 34 males).
Adoption rates for online video viewing offull episodes of television programs
represent the fastest take rate in history ofany form of media distribution. Half of 16 to 54 year olds are now watching
full episodes of TV programs online, 28%weekly (VCR, 7 years; Color TV, 12years;Web, 11years)
Aggregate weekly viewing of online videohas grown to 5.3 hours a week among onlinevideo users, an increase of 51% in the pastyear.
Share of linear TV as a percentage of all rich
media consumed has shrunk from 59%
to54% in the past 12months.
1. Consumers are Dictating the Pace of Change
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44
Average Weekly Hours
Among Age by Gender
Males 16-
24
Females
16-24
Males 25-
34
Females
25-34
Males 35-
44
Females
35-44
Males 45-
54
Females
45-54Live on TV 13.4 17.3 17.5 18.7 25.3 21.4 26.4 24.7On a DVD 6.6 4.9 8.2 7.6 7.7 5.9 4.4 3.6Watching video online on
a computer9.1 3.4 7.1 4.5 5.4 2.3 2.7 0.9
With a DVR or TiVo 3.1 2.5 4.9 5.5 3.2 4.1 4.7 4.6VOD 3.0 0.6 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.9
36.7
20.8
6.1 4.3 4.11.4
57%
17% 12%
4%
11%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Total Live on TV On a DVD Watching video
online on a
computer
With a DVR or
TiVo
With Video on-
demand -VOD
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
% of Total Ric Media
Hours Spent Watching TV or Video - WeeklyTV and Rich Media ViewersTV and Rich Media Viewers
Average Weekly Hours Spen Watching
TV or Rich Media in the Following Ways
Weekly Average Among
Platform Users / OwnersTotal % Users
Live on TV 20.8 90%With a DVR or TiVo 11.1 37%
On a DVD 6.1 68%
With Video on demand -VOD 5.7 24%
Watching video online on a computer 4.3 82%
M 16-24 W 16-24 M 25-34 W 25-34 M 35-44 W 35-44 M 45-54 W 45-54
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555 New Truths5 New Truths
Web usage is now intrinsically woven into the TVviewing experience as a utility to help planviewing, an enhancement, and a socialexperience.
The majority of TV viewers are now turning tothe web to find out more about their favoriteTV shows
Three-in-ten are online to see what other fansare saying about TV programs
One-in-four are actively using social networkingsites to comment on TV shows
Digital convenience has changed the wayviewers approach linear television in a hierarchyof needs: Shows I watch as soon as they are available (live)
Shows I am willing to wait for and time shift
Social experience Nearly one-third are weekly
viewers of online videos sent via email
2. Digital Media is Fundamental to the TV Experience
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66
Agree With StatementsOnline Video UserOnline Video User
Agree With Internet and nlineVideo sage State ents
Youngerde os are uch ore likely to use the web as a TVenhance ent lder wo en are ore likely than older en.
s ales s ales s ales s ales
Agree A ong Gender by Age
Based on 82% of RespondentsWho watch video online
51%
41%
29%
28%
25%
You often use the inte net to find out
morea out some of your favorite TV
shows
The internet he ps you to get more
enjoyment from te evision
You use the internet to he pp an your
te evisionviewing inadvance
You go on ine to find out what other
fansaresaying a out TVshows
You like to comment onvideos you
have watched online
M 16-24 W 16-24 M 25-34 W 25-34 M 35-44 W 35-44 M 45-54 W 45-54
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775 New Truths5 New Truths
For the vast majority of viewers, the web isenhancing their TV experience, not supplanting
it
Fans of shows are watching online if theymissed the original airing
Incremental viewing is a significant part of thelandscape one-in-four are watching scenes of
the entire show again
The web is an effective acquisition tool,
allowing new viewers to become familiar with ashow and/or catch up on earlier episodes
The heaviest consumers of online video are themost frequent viewers of TV overall.
Between 4% and 6% of viewers of a specificprogram have replaced on-air with online
2. Digital Media is Fundamental to the TV Experience
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15%
11%
10%
8%
9%
8%
23%
20%
15%
17%
13%
13%
37%
31%
25%
24%
21%
21%
Watch anentireepisode ofanexistin
televisionprogra thatsalready aired
Searched forspecificcontent a out a TVshow
or ovie
Watch apreview ofanew TVshow before it has
aired
Used the web to decide which TVprogra s to
watch
Uploadavideo to any website
Co ent on TVshowsat asocial networkin
site
Onceaday or ore
t least oncea week
Frequency of Doing ActivityOnline Video UserOnline Video User
Do Each nline Activity Weekly
Weekly viewership o episodes that have already aired reaches 37 ,driven
by younger wo en.
10%do allvideo
a tivitiesweekly
Based on 82% of Respondents Who Watch Video Online
M 16-24 W 16-24 M 25-34 W 25-34 M 35-44 W 35-44 M 45-54 W 45-54
nline TV
riginal Media Source
Top2De os
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995 New Truths5 New Truths
Linear TVs domain is now compartmentalized,even as TV content drives the web.
TV captures broad entertainment andsocial companionship.
News is migrating to a digital environment.
The gap between the web as an informationresource and an entertainment destination isclosing, driven by the availability of full TVepisodes and clips.
The Web is now the preferred choice forlaughter and humor, for the latest trends, and
for learning new and interesting things. Supporting a multi-platform position and
maintaining the flow between web and TV iscritical to survival.
There is an emerging core replacing TVwith web (driven by younger males).
3. TV drives the web
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1010
57%52% 48% 45% 42%
35% 35% 32%
21% 21% 15% 19%7%
23%21%20%
3%9% 8% 8% 7% 3% 6% 2%0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
To ave
somet i
on in t e
back round
while oudo
other things
To learnnew
and
interesting
things
To eelmore
connected to
theworld
around ou
Tostayup-
to-dateon
the latest
trends
henyou
have ust a
fewfree
minutes
henyou
havean
entire
evening to
spend
Todo
something
that is
exciting
To relaxand
unwind
%
of
espondents
Winner Wat ing TV programsat t eirschedued timeson TV Watching ideoson theinternet
Media Trends & BehaviorMedia Trends & BehaviorMedia Most Likely to Turn to Web video captures the highest levels of interest for core information items:
Learning new and interesting things Feel more connected to the world around you Stay up-to-date on the latest trends
Media Most Likely to Turn WhenLooking to do the Following (1 of2)Media Most Likely to Turn WhenLooking to do the Following (1 of2)
- Surfing the internetw out watching video
- Listening to usic
None
- Watching videosorDVDs
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1111
- Watching videosorDVDs
- Surfing the internetw out watching video
- Watching TV progra s at theirscheduled ti es on TV
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Tohavefun To laugh Tobe
entertained
or omething
to dowhile
ouarewith
friend
To passthe
time
To eep ou
compan
Tohavesome
timeto
ourself
ofRespondents
Winner Wat ing rograms at t eirs eduled times on Wat ing ideos on t einternet
Media Trends & BehaviorMedia Trends & BehaviorMedia Most Likely to Turn to
Media Most Likely to Turn WhenLooking to do the Following (2 of2)Media Most Likely to Turn WhenLooking to do the Following (2 of2)
TV is still seen as the primary source for entertainment and to keep you company.
TV, Web, and DVD are comparable on laughter, Gaming is the most fun activity.
- Listening to usic - Playing video ga es
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12125 New Truths5 New Truths
TV still matters, capturing 57% of total screen time. Younger demos are migrating fastest to the digital
arena less than half of all rich media consumed
among 16 to 34 year olds is spent with live TV (just
38% among 16 to 24 year old males)
Weekly viewers of full episodes are the heaviestconsumers of TV across all platforms (45.1 hours)
Social networking is a force among younger demosbut is rapidly expanding across all age groups.
Four-in-five (ages 14 to 29) have a personal web
page on at least one social networking site
22% of all web time is spent on a socialnetworking site (ages 14 to 29).
80% of 18-to-21 year olds are weekly visitors
25% of daytime TV viewers ages 25 to 54 have a
personal web page
20% of all web users are watching full episodes
at social networking sites
4. The Audience Is Engaged But Not With Linear TV
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- Watching TV progra s at theirscheduled ti es on TV
0%
10%
20%30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
A local news
program
urrent
episodesof
situation
comedies
urrent
episodesof
primetime
dramas
urrent
episodesof
crimeand
police
dramas
urrent
episodesof
comedieson
cable
urrent
episodesof
dramason
cable
urrent
episodesof
realit show
competitions
urrent
episodesof
adventure
realit
programs
ofRespondents
Winner Recordedona iVoor VRamong VR HH treamingat a ebsiteonline it commercials forfree
TV Viewing Trends & BehaviorTV Viewing Trends & BehaviorPreferred Way of Watching Types of Programs
Media Most Likely to Turn WhenLooking to do the FollowingMedia Most Likely to Turn WhenLooking to do the Following
Watching programs at their regularly schedules times live on television is still the preferred method towatch all types of shows. Slightly more viewers are watching current episodes of cable comedies onlinethan other types of shows.
ther options: V D,DVR,DVD, iPod
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14145 New Truths5 New Truths
Branded TV sites have a competitive advantagetoday over aggregators for branded content, but
the gap is closing.
TV is perceived as primarily a medium forentertainment and laughter, secondarily as a
source for news and information Two thirds have TV shows they almost
never miss
Half use TV as a social currency to discuss
with friends
Nearly half say TV is their primary source ofentertainment
Four-in-ten say TV is their primary source of
information
Linear TV (and front door web traffic) are being
replaced with a broad distribution model.
5. TV Still Matters, Reinforced byOnline Allegiances
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1515The Current LandscapeThe Current Landscape
Addressing the fundamental disconnect:1. Embrace the viewer as an active participant
Linear TV Community of TV viewers
Access to content delivers reach (bydefinition) and reinforces on-air and
online platforms2. The TV show is the catalyst but not the
endgame
Packaged content Web applications toshare, comment, and enhance content
Convenience + Engagement = Loyalty3. The easy stuff is over
Mass sales targeted long tail
Consumer interest opens the door toconsumer-focused selling
The Future of TV is Now
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Dr. Seth GeigerPresident SmithGeiger, LLC
Digital Media Trends andDigital Media Trends and
the Future of Televisionthe Future of Television