Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry Market …Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry – Market...

Report Price: US$ 1250 (Single User)

Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry –

Market Attractiveness, Competitive

Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

2

Summary

“Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to

2020” report offers the reader detailed analysis of the defense budget over the next five years. Alongside it

offers insights into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign OEMs (original

equipment manufacturers) to gain a market share in the Kenyan defense industry.

The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations during 2016-2020,

including highlights of the key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets

and provides detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Findings

With an armed force that is considered to be one of the most powerful in East Africa, Kenya has consistently

procured a large amount of military hardware over the last couple of years, including small arms, armored

vehicles, helicopters, rocket launchers, and aircraft, which drove defense expenditure between 2011 and

2015. The country’s defense budget increased at a CAGR of XX%, with an investment of US$XX billion in

2011 and US$XX billion in 2015.The government’s well-defined military modernization plans along with its

efforts to counter domestic and foreign terrorist attacks, and the country’s active and consistent participation

in the various peacekeeping missions are expected to stimulate the expenditure over the next few years.

Over the forecast period, the country’s defense budget is projected to increase from US$XX billion in 2016 to

US$XX billion in 2020, at a CAGR of XX%.

Key Features and Benefits

The report provides detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry during 2011–2020, including the

factors that influence the military expenditure. It provides detailed expectations of growth rates and projected

total expenditure.

It provides the manufacturers with insights on market opportunities along with industry structure and

dynamics prevalent in the country. In addition, the report focuses on the regulations governing the Kenyan

defense industry and the potential market entry strategies with an expert analysis of the competitive

structure.


3

1. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

1.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

1.1.1. Kenyan annual defense expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% over 2016-2020

Between 2011 and 2015, Kenya’s defense expenditure, which also includes the expenditure of the National

Intelligence Service, increased from US$XX billion in 2011 to US$XX billion in 2015, reflecting a CAGR of

XX%. The government’s efforts to fortify its armed forces along with its focus on military hardware

modernization and participation in peacekeeping missions has been, and is expected to drive the country’s

defense budget over the forecast period. In the last few years, Kenya has imported advanced military

hardware such as BRDM-3 reconnaissance vehicles, F-5E combat aircraft, P-400 patrol craft, Z-9 and Mi-17

helicopters, and Puma M-26 carrier for its military. The budget is projected to be US$XX billion in 2016 and

increase to US$XX billion in 2020, registering a CAGR of XX%.

The following table and figure show the Kenyan defense expenditure during the historic period:

Table 1: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015

Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn)

Defense growth percentage

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

CAGR 2011-2015

Ministry of Finance, Kenya and SDI analysis © SDI

Figure 1: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Defe

nse e

xp

en

dit

ure

gro

wth

rate

(%

)

Defe

nse E

xp

en

dit

ure

(U

S$ B

illi

on

)

Defense Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense expenditure growth %


4

The following table and figure show projected defense expenditure of Kenya over the forecast period:

Table 2: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020

Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn)

Defense growth percentage

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR 2016-2020


Figure 2: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Defe

nse e

xp

en

dit

ure

gro

wth

rate

(%

)

Defe

nse E

xp

en

dit

ure

(U

S$ B

illi

on

)

Defence Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense expenditure growth %


5

1.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

1.2.1. Share of revenue expenditure to comprise the majority of the defense budget

Over 2011-2015, Kenya’s defense budget allocation towards capital expenditure increased from XX% in

2011 to XX% in 2015, as the country executed a number of defense equipment procurements deals during

this time. Over the forecast period, the nation’s capital expenditure share is expected to increase further on

account of internal and external security measures and modernization programs. During 2016-2020, the

share of capital expenditure is expected to average XX%, while the remaining XX% will be assigned for

revenue expenditure that will continue to comprise the majority of the nation’s defense budget.

The following table and chart display Kenya’s defense budget share of capital and revenue during the historic

period:

Table 3: Kenya’s Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011–2015

Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Ministry of Finance, Kenya and SDI analysis © SDI

Figure 3: Kenya’s Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015

Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis © SDI

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Defe

nse B

ud

get

Sp

lit

(%)

Capital Expenditure Revenue Expenditure


6

The following table and chart display Kenya’s defense budget share of capital and revenue expenditure over

the forecast period:

Table 4: Kenya’s Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016–2020

Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020


Figure 4: Kenya’s Defense Budget Split Between Capital, Revenue and Other Expenditure (%), 2016-2020

Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis © SDI

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Defe

nse B

ud

get

Sp

lit

(%)

Capital Expenditure Revenue Expenditure


7

1.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast

1.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase during the forecast period

Kenya’s homeland security (HLS), which lies in the hands of the National Police Service, stood at US$XX

million in 2011 and increased to US$XX million in 2015, at a CAGR of XX%. The growth was driven by the

government’s efforts to combat arms smuggling, human trafficking, and drug smuggling. The country has

allocated US$XX million from the 2014 budget for the procurement of new police vehicles and US$XX million

for the recruitment of 10,000 police officers to enhance security operations and patrolling. The budget is

expected to increase from US$XX million in 2016 to US$XX million in 2020, reflecting a CAGR of XX%.

The table and chart below show Kenya’s homeland security expenditure during the historic period:

Table 5: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015

Year Homeland expenditure (US$ mn)

Growth Rate (%)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


Figure 5: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011-2015


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gro

wth

rat

e (%

)

Ho

mel

and

Sec

uri

ty E

xpen

dit

ure

(U

S$

mn

)

Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ mn) Growth Rate (%)


8

2. Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Figure 4: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Source: SDI analysis © SDI

Intensity of Rivalry Bargaining Power of Supplier

Bargaining Power of Buyer

Barrier to Entry

Threat of Substitute


9

Report Methodology

SDI’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with a background in

industry research and consulting in the defense sector. The following research methodology is followed for all

databases and reports:

Secondary Research

The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research to source reliable qualitative and

quantitative information related to the defense market. The secondary research sources that are typically

referred to include, but are not limited to:

Industry associations

National government documents and statistical databases

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations

Industry trade journals and other literature

Internal and external proprietary databases

News articles, press releases, and webcasts specific to the companies operating in the market

Primary Research

SDI conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and commentators in order to

validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions:

Provides first-hand information on market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape,

and future outlook

Helps to validate and strengthen secondary research findings

Further develops the analysis team’s expertise and market understanding

Primary research involves e-mail interactions, telephone interviews, and face-to-face interviews for

each market category, division, and sub-division across geographies

The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:

Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers,

and national sales managers

External experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts, and key opinion leaders

specializing in defense markets

Conventions

Currency conversions are performed on the basis of average annual conversion rate format

calculations

All the values in tables, with the exception of compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) and

compounded annual rate of change (CARC), are displayed to one decimal place; therefore, due to

this rounding method, growth rates may appear inconsistent with absolute values

The forecasted values are projected on the basis of nominal values; the inflation was not taken into account


10

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 9

1.1. What is this Report About? ........................................................................................................... 9

1.2. Definitions ...................................................................................................................................... 9

1.3. Summary Methodology .................................................................................................................11

1.4. SDI Terrorism Index ......................................................................................................................12

1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence ..........................................................................................12

2. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 13

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities ........................................................ 15

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast..............................................................................16

3.1.1. Kenyan annual defense expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.94% over 2016-2020 ............... 16

3.1.2. Border security, terrorist group threats, peacekeeping missions, and the need to modernize outdated

defense equipment to drive Kenya’s defense expenditure ................................................................................... 20

3.1.3. The country’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 1.2% over the

forecast period ...................................................................................................................................................... 22

3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation .......................................................................................24

3.2.1. Share of revenue expenditure to comprise the majority of the defense budget ....................................... 24

3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget projected to increase at a CAGR of 5.53% during the forecast period ........ 26

3.2.3. Kenyan defense revenue expenditure expected to be US$4.8 billion cumulatively over 2016-2020 ...... 30

3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period ................................... 34

3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast ............................................................................36

3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase during the forecast period ........................................... 36

3.3.2. Human trafficking, and drug and arms smugglings form the major components of homeland security

expenditure ........................................................................................................................................................... 40

3.3.3. Kenya is at some risk from external and internal threats ......................................................................... 42

3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets .....................................................................................43

3.4.1. Kenyan defense expenditure expected to be low compared to other African nations ............................. 43

3.4.2. Kenya’s military expenditure to be US$1.2 billion by 2020 ...................................................................... 45

3.4.3. Kenya allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense ............................................................................. 46

3.4.4. Kenya faces some risk of terrorism .......................................................................................................... 47

3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators ......................................................50

3.5.1. Cyber security ........................................................................................................................................... 50

3.5.2. Trainer aircraft .......................................................................................................................................... 50

3.5.3. Armored Vehicles ..................................................................................................................................... 51

3.5.4. Helicopter .................................................................................................................................................. 51

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics ........................................................................... 52


11

4.1. Import Market Dynamics ...............................................................................................................53

4.1.1. The initiative to modernize the country’s armed force will drive defense imports .................................... 53

4.1.2. Jordan was the leading supplier of arms to Kenya during 2010-2013 ..................................................... 54

4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2010–2013 ............................................... 55

4.2. Export Market Dynamics ..............................................................................................................56

4.2.1. Kenya does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry................................... 56

5. Industry Dynamics .............................................................................................................. 57

5.1. Five Forces Analysis.....................................................................................................................57

5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: high ..................................................................................................... 58

5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: low .......................................................................................................... 58

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium to high ............................................................................................................... 58

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high ............................................................................................................................. 58

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: medium to high ..................................................................................................... 58

6. Market Entry Strategy ......................................................................................................... 59

6.1. Market Regulation .........................................................................................................................59

6.1.1. Kenya does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country ................................................. 59

6.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is determined on a case to case basis .................................................. 59

6.2. Market Entry Route .......................................................................................................................59

6.2.1. Equipment manufacturers enter the market through government-to-government deals ......................... 59

6.3. Key Challenges .............................................................................................................................60

6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency characterize the Kenyan defense industry ..................................... 60

6.3.2. Low defense budget to act as obstacle for foreign investors ................................................................... 60

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights ................................................................ 61

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview ...............................................................................................61

7.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Kenya ................................... 61

7.2. Key Domestic Companies ............................................................................................................61

7.2.1. Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation: overview ................................................................................... 61

7.2.2. Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation: products and services .............................................................. 61

7.2.3. Rosoboronexport: overview ...................................................................................................................... 62

7.2.4. Rosoboronexport: products and services ................................................................................................. 62

7.2.5. Rosoboronexport: recent contract wins .................................................................................................... 62

7.2.6. Grob Aircraft: overview ............................................................................................................................. 63

7.2.7. Grob Aircraft: products and services ........................................................................................................ 63

7.2.8. Grob Aircraft: recent contract wins ........................................................................................................... 63

8. Business Environment and Country Risk ......................................................................... 64

8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics ................................................................................................64

8.1.1. Total Rural Population .............................................................................................................................. 64


12

8.1.2. Total Urban Population ............................................................................................................................. 65

8.1.3. Number of households.............................................................................................................................. 66

8.2. Economic Performance ................................................................................................................67

8.2.1. GDP Per Capita ........................................................................................................................................ 67

8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices ................................................................................................................................. 68

8.2.3. Exports of goods and services (current USD Bn) ..................................................................................... 69

8.2.4. Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn) ..................................................................................... 70

8.2.5. Gross National disposable income (USD Bn)........................................................................................... 71

8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (USD Bn) ............................................................................................................... 72

8.2.7. Consumer Price Index .............................................................................................................................. 73

8.2.8. Local Currency Unit per US Dollars .......................................................................................................... 74

8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per Euro ................................................................................................................... 75

8.2.10. Lending Rate ............................................................................................................................................ 76

8.2.11. Deposit Rate ............................................................................................................................................. 77

8.2.12. Real Interest Rate (%) .............................................................................................................................. 78

8.2.13. Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn) ................................................................................ 79

8.2.14. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP) ............................................................................. 80

8.2.15. Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Bn) ..................................................................................... 81

8.2.16. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU) .............................................................................. 82

8.2.17. Goods exports as a % of GDP ................................................................................................................. 83

8.2.18. Goods imports as a % of GDP ................................................................................................................. 84

8.2.19. Goods balance as a % of GDP ................................................................................................................. 85

8.2.20. Services imports as a % of GDP .............................................................................................................. 86

8.2.21. Service exports as a % of GDP ................................................................................................................ 87

8.2.22. Services balance as a % of GDP ............................................................................................................. 88

8.2.23. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn) ............................................................................. 89

8.2.24. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP .............................................................................................. 90

8.2.25. International reserves, including gold ....................................................................................................... 91

8.2.26. External Debt as % of GDP ...................................................................................................................... 92

8.3. Energy and Utilities .......................................................................................................................93

8.3.1. Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation .................................................................................... 93

8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation ................................................................................................................ 94

8.3.3. Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity ................................................................................ 95

8.3.4. Electricity Imports ..................................................................................................................................... 96

8.3.5. Petroleum Consumption ........................................................................................................................... 97

8.3.6. Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts) .............................................. 98

8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability .........................................................................................99

8.4.1. Air transport, freight .................................................................................................................................. 99


13

8.5. Minerals ....................................................................................................................................... 100

8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output ................................................................................................... 100

8.6. Technology .................................................................................................................................. 101

8.6.1. Patents Granted ...................................................................................................................................... 101

8.7. Telecommunication .................................................................................................................... 102

8.7.1. Telephone Lines ..................................................................................................................................... 102

8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate ......................................................................................................... 103

9. Appendix ............................................................................................................................ 104

9.1. About SDI ..................................................................................................................................... 104

9.2. Disclaimer .................................................................................................................................... 104


14

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015 ....................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 2: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020 ....................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011–2015 ...................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 4: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016–2020 ...................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 5: Kenyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015 ............ 22 Figure 6: Kenyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020 ............ 23 Figure 7: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015 ................................................................. 24 Figure 8: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020 ................................................................. 25 Figure 9: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million),2011–2015 ........................................................................................................... 26 Figure 10: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016–2020 ........................................................................................................ 27 Figure 11: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011–2015 ........................................................................................................ 28 Figure 12: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016–2020 ........................................................................................................ 29 Figure 13: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011–2015 ..................................................................................................... 30 Figure 14: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016–2020 ..................................................................................................... 31 Figure 15: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011–2015 ..................................................................................................... 32 Figure 16: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016–2020 ..................................................................................................... 33 Figure 17: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015 .............................................................................................................. 34 Figure 18: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020 .............................................................................................................. 35 Figure 19: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011–2015 ................................................................................................... 36 Figure 20: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2016–2020 ........................................................................................................... 37 Figure 21: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (KES Billion), 2011–2015 ........................................................................................................... 38 Figure 22: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (KES Billion), 2016–2020 ........................................................................................................... 39 Figure 23: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015 .......................................................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 24: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020 ........................................................................................................... 44 Figure 25: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020 ........................................................... 45 Figure 26: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015 ..................................................................... 46 Figure 27: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015 ................................................................................................................................................................. 47 Figure 28: Kenyan Defense Import Trend, 2010–2013 (TIV values) .................................................................................................................... 53 Figure 29: Kenyan Defense Imports by Country (%), 2010–2013 ....................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 30: Kenyan Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010–2013...................................................................................................................... 55 Figure 31: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 57 Figure 32: Kenyan Rural Population (In Millions), 2015–2024 ............................................................................................................................. 64 Figure 33: Kenyan Urban Population (In Millions), 2015–2024 ............................................................................................................................ 65 Figure 34: Kenyan Number of Households (In Millions), 2008–2017 ................................................................................................................... 66 Figure 35: Kenyan GDP Per Capita, 2015–2024 ................................................................................................................................................ 67 Figure 36: Kenyan GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015–2024 ..................................................................................................................... 68 Figure 37: Kenyan Exports of goods and services (current USD Bn), 2003–2012 ............................................................................................... 69 Figure 38: Kenyan Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn), 2003–2012 ............................................................................................... 70 Figure 39: Kenyan Gross National disposable income (USD Bn), 2003–2012 .................................................................................................... 71 Figure 40: Kenyan Manufacturing Output (USD Bn), 2003–2012 ........................................................................................................................ 72 Figure 41: Kenyan Consumer Price Index, 2015–2024 ....................................................................................................................................... 73 Figure 42: Local Currency per USD, 2015–2024 ................................................................................................................................................ 74 Figure 43: Local Currency per Euro, 2015–2024 ................................................................................................................................................ 75 Figure 44: Lending Rate (%), 2003–2012 ........................................................................................................................................................... 76 Figure 45: Deposit Rate (%), 2003–2012 ............................................................................................................................................................ 77 Figure 46: Real Interest Rate (%), 2003–2012 .................................................................................................................................................... 78 Figure 47: Kenyan Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn), 2003–2012 ........................................................................................... 79 Figure 48: Kenyan Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2002–2011 ........................................................................................ 80 Figure 49: Kenyan Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Bn), 2004–2011 ............................................................................................... 81 Figure 50: Kenyan Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002–2011 ........................................................................................ 82 Figure 51: Kenyan Goods exports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011 ........................................................................................................................... 83 Figure 52: Kenyan Goods imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011 ........................................................................................................................... 84 Figure 53: Kenyan Goods balance as a % of GDP, 2003–2011 .......................................................................................................................... 85 Figure 54: Kenyan Services imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011 ....................................................................................................................... 86


15

Figure 55: Kenyan Service exports as a % of GDP, 2003–2011 ......................................................................................................................... 87 Figure 56: Kenyan Services balance as a % of GDP, 2002–2011 ....................................................................................................................... 88 Figure 57: Kenyan Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn), 2002–2011 ....................................................................................... 89 Figure 58: Kenyan Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2003–2011 ........................................................................................................ 90 Figure 59: Kenyan International reserves, including gold (US$ Billion), 2002–2011 ............................................................................................ 91 Figure 60: Kenyan External Debt as % of GDP (%), 2001–2010 ......................................................................................................................... 92 Figure 61: Kenyan Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010 ........................................................... 93 Figure 62: Kenyan Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010 ..................................................................................... 94 Figure 63: Kenyan Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001–2010 ........................................................... 95 Figure 64: Kenyan Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010 .......................................................................................................... 96 Figure 65: Kenyan Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003–2012 ....................................................................................... 97 Figure 66: Kenyan Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts), 2002–2011 ......................................................... 98 Figure 67: Kenyan Air transport freight (million ton-km), 2002–2011 ................................................................................................................... 99 Figure 68: Kenyan Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2003–2012 .........................................................................................100 Figure 69: Kenyan Patents Granted, 2002–2011 ...............................................................................................................................................101 Figure 70: Kenyan Telephone Lines (In Million), 2003–2012 .............................................................................................................................102 Figure 71: Kenyan Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People), 2003–2012 ........................................................................................103


16

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015 ........................................................................................................................ 16 Table 2: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020 ........................................................................................................................ 17 Table 3: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011–2015 ....................................................................................................................... 18 Table 4: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016–2020 ....................................................................................................................... 19 Table 5: Kenyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015 ............. 22 Table 6: Kenyan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020 ............. 23 Table 7: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015 .................................................................. 24 Table 8: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020 .................................................................. 25 Table 9: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011–2015 ........................................................................................................... 26 Table 10: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016–2020 ......................................................................................................... 27 Table 11: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011–2015 ......................................................................................................... 28 Table 12: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016–2020 ......................................................................................................... 29 Table 13: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011–2015 ...................................................................................................... 30 Table 14: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2016–2020 ...................................................................................................... 31 Table 15: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (KES Billion), 2011–2015 ...................................................................................................... 32 Table 16: Kenyan Defense Revenue Expenditure (KES Billion), 2016–2020 ...................................................................................................... 33 Table 17: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015 ............................................................................................................... 34 Table 18: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020 ............................................................................................................... 35 Table 19: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2011–2015 .................................................................................................... 36 Table 20: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................ 37 Table 21: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (KES Billion), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................ 38 Table 22: Kenyan Homeland Security Budget (KES Billion), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................ 39 Table 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2011–2015 vs. 2016–2020............................................................................................................ 43 Table 24: SDI Terrorism Index ............................................................................................................................................................................ 48 Table 25: Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation– Product Focus..................................................................................................................... 61 Table 26: Rosoboronexport – Product Focus ...................................................................................................................................................... 62 Table 27: Rosoboronexport – Recent Contract Wins .......................................................................................................................................... 62 Table 28: Grob Aircraft– Product Focus .............................................................................................................................................................. 63 Table 29: Grob Aircraft – Recent Contract Wins ................................................................................................................................................. 63

Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry Market …Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry – Market...

Documents

Transcript of Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry Market …Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry – Market...