Clay Bunyard

University of Houston

Fall 2019

Future of Organizational

Creativity in 2035

2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

+ Introduction

+ Executive Summary

+ Domain Description

+ Domain Map

+ History

+ Current Assessment

+ Stakeholder Analysis

+ Scan Hits

+ Trends, Issues, Plans, Projections

+ Future Drivers

+ Cross Impact Analysis

+ Archetype Drivers

+ Future Scenarios

+ Implications Analysis

+ Strategic Recommendations

Framing Scanning Futuring Visioning & Designing

01 02 03 04Introduction

3

INTRODUCTION

Framing Scanning Futuring Visioning Designing Adapting

The competitive landscape is dynamic and challenging for global consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies and they need to innovate quickly to meet the unique needs of their consumers in multiple regional markets. Research has shown that creativity is critical for delivering impactful innovation, and companies which create organizational cultures which encourage and leverage the creativity of their employees do better in the marketplace.

But, creating an organizational culture of creativity is not easy. Trends in worker demographics, work preferences along with technological advances in artificial intelligence and automation suggest it will only become more challenging as the nature of work is changing.

CPG companies which proactively understand how to prepare their organizations to maximize the creative potential of their workforce will have the best chance of remaining competitive in the long term.

This foresight project explored the future of organizational creativity within the next fifteen years (2035) for a hypothetical global CPG client. The methodology used for the project was the University of Houston Framework Foresight in combination with archetype scenarios. This report will illustrate the major outputs of the Framing, Scanning, Futuring, Visioning and Designing stages of the framework and concludes with some key recommendations for the client.

Hines, A., & Bishop, P. C. (2013). Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way. Futures, 51, 31-49.

4

Baseline Scenario “Short Circuit” - Leveraging AI,automation for human-machine collaboration to create newinnovation in a diverse and complex work environment, butvaried degrees of success

Transformation Scenario “The Matrix” - Modular,dynamic organizations optimized for external partnering andinternal collaboration, enabled by seamless integration oftechnologies designed to augment the human creative process.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

How will creativity manifest itself in the innovation process?Advancements in technology – artificial intelligence,automation, virtual/augmented reality - will have asignificant impact on the innovation process within CPGs by2035. Not only will companies need to adapt and adoptthese technologies to remain competitive, but the workforcewill need to adapt as well to keep up with the pace ofchange. Two scenarios were developed to explore how thismight manifest in the future.

Implications analysis of ”The Matrix” scenario uncovered two important issues to be addressed by CPGs

How to minimize potential negative health/well-being impacts with use of neuro-interfaced intelligence amplification tech?How to create future “polymath” innovation teams without placing undue (and creativity-harming) pressure on employees?

Tech-Augmented Creativity - Technologicalinnovations will increasingly free up time for humansto be creative but will also create immersiveenvironments and data-based insights to enhance thehuman creative process.

Innovation Ecosystems - Companies are lookingoutside their walls to the crowd, partnerships,incubators, and universities to bring in new ideas.

Dynamic Workforce - The collocated, full-timeworkforce of the past is shifting towards remoteworkers and freelancers. Corporations areemphasizing diversity and inclusion and preparingfor an older workforce.

Valuing Creativity Skills - The business world isstarting to appreciate that creative thinking is notjust a highly desirable skill but a must-have skill forits workforce to create the innovation it needs.

Adaptive Expertise - To remain competitive,companies will more quickly adapt its workforce’scapabilities by upskilling full-time employees andcontracting subject-matter experts on demand.

Start-up Mindset - Established corporationsattempting to replicate the growth of startups byincorporating start-up thinking into their practicesand bringing in those mindsets, new ideas andinnovations through acquisitions and mergers.

Future Drivers of Organizational Creativity

55

Framing

+Domain Description

+Domain Map 01

6

DOMAIN DESCRIPTION

2019-2025H1

2026-2035H2

2036+H3

Strategic Questions

How will creativity manifest itself in the innovation process?

Where will new ideas and insights come from?

How will innovation-focused jobs change?

Domain Definition

Global consumer goods companies need to innovate quickly to remain competitive and meet the needs of their consumers in multiple regional markets. Advances in technology are expected to disrupt not only the nature of work but the process of innovation itself. Companies which proactively build their creativity and innovation capabilities by leveraging technological advances, adapting their innovation ecosystems and developing their human capital in complimentary ways will have an advantage against their competitors.

ClientGlobal Consumer Products Company

Geographic Scope Global

Time Horizon for Study

7

DOMAIN MAP

A domain map was created to guide the scanning for signals of future change.

The main categories and sub-categories were developed from the elements of Rhodes’ ”4 Ps” model of creativity (Person, Product, Press, & Process) with consideration of the influence of technology and both internal and external stakeholders.

Rhodes, M. (1961). An analysis of creativity. The Phi Delta Kappan, 42(7), 305-310.

88

Scanning

+History

+ Current Assessment

+ Stakeholder Analysis

+ Scan Hits 02

9

HISTORY

IDEO was featured on Nightline segment

“The Deep Dive: One Company’s Secret

Weapon for Innovation” and showed how their

design thinking approach works.

1999

Henry Chesbrough, professor at the

Berkeley Hass Business School,

defined the term “Open Innovation” describing

approaches by which companies access and bring in external

knowledge internally to advance speed of

innovation.

2003

Arne Dietrich publishes a

foundational paper on the cognitive

neuroscience of creativity, differentiating

deliberate versus spontaneous and the particular role of the

pre-frontal cortex.

2004

Eric Ries published the now popular The Lean Startup methodology for

significantly shortening the product development

cycle and testing business models through iterative

hypothesis driven experimentation.

2011

GV published their rapid Design Sprint

methodology for idea development which

has gained similar popularity to the Lean Start-up

approach.

2016

The recent history of organizational creativity and innovation was explored. Over the past 20 years, the terms ”design thinking” and “open innovation” have now become commonplace, with newer innovation methods appearing which reflect more entrepreneurial mindsets.

10

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

Forrester Consulting (2014) showed companies that

embraced creativity outperformed rivals.

Creative companies enjoyed greater market share and competitive leadership,

outnumbering counterparts 1.5 to 1 (link)

IBM survey of 1500 CEOs identify creativity as the number one leadership

competency of the successful enterprise of the

future (link)

Adobe study revealed a workplace creativity gap with

75% respondents under pressure to be productive versus creative and have limited time to be creative.

(link)

According to a McKinsey survey, 84% of executives

believe innovation is important to growth, 80% feel

that their business models are at risk, but only 6% are

satisfied with innovation performance (link)

Two major themes emerged while assessing the current state of organizational creativity

While creativity drives market leadership through new innovation, many companies have not successfully incorporated creativity into their organizational cultures to drive innovation.

Perhaps as a consequence, companies are reaching outside their walls to bring in new ideas and innovations.

Crowdfunding has become a billion dollar industry, growing at least 10%

annually. (link)

Major companies such as Coca Cola, P&G, Samsung,

GE are leveraging open innovation approaches into

the way they work (link)

11

STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS

Technologists

Educators

Startups

Workforce

Consumers

The impact of key external stakeholders influencing the innovation process of consumer products companies was also considered.

Universities, startups in artificial intelligence, virtual/augmented reality and human augmentation will set the pace of what advancements corporations can access and leverage

Education systems are currently viewed as stifling creativity. Future systems will play a critical role in preparing the “creative” workforce in the 21st Century Skills (which includes creativity) and future professions.

Consumers define what corporate innovations are meaningful and are playing an increasingly significant role in the innovation process

The ability of corporations to adapt will be dependent on engaging and addressing the needs of a highly diverse and changing workforce

Startups compete for talent and also can implement highly disruptive innovations faster than most global corporations.

12

SCANNING HITS

Title Personalized Active Learner Project- MIT Author Mina Khan, MIT Media Lab/Fluid Interfaces

Brief source MIT Media Lab/Fluid Interfaces Date 2017-2018 (MIT Media Lab page), publication in 5.20.19

STEEP Categories technology Keywords Wearable technology, memory augmentation

URL https://www.media.mit.edu/projects/pal/overview/https://techxplore.com/news/2019-05-pal-wearable-context-aware-health-cognition.html

Type(bold one)

Actual event New trend New cycle New plan Potential event New information New issue

Brief description of the item

PAL (Personalized Active Learner) is a wearable system with on-device machine learning to help users with real-time, personalized, and context-aware memory augmentation, language learning, and self-awareness. PAL leverages biotechnology and AI to give users holistic information about their activities and well-being. PAL wearable system includes a camera, audio input/output, and skin-like physiological sensors. PAL uses on-device computer vision and sensor fusion for detecting user activities like eating, sleeping, working, etc., and learns about users' physical, emotional, and cognitive states (such as attention levels, using physiological sensors like sweat, electrocardiogram (ECG), and electroencephalography (EEG) sensors). A paper was recently published on its use for context aware health and cognitive support. (link)

How could the future be different as a result?

When a compact, nonintrusive version of the technology exists, it could be used a way to gain better data from consumer use studies, allowing for monitoring of their emotional and physical reactions during product use, and then recalling those experiences during debriefing of the product uses experience by CPG companies placing the studies

What are the potential implications for…?

…the Client: Consumer Packaged Goods company

Wearable technology would lead to a better read of the “true” user experience with the product as opposed to just relying on the more traditional consumer’s unassisted recall from memory in focus groups, etc. This “validated” consumer data would provide for increased confidence in study results and faster speed for decision making

Horizon(bold one)

H1 Confirming (baseline)

H2 Resolving (between scenarios)H3 Creating (new scenario)

Impact(0-5)

3 Plausibility(0-5)

3

Novelty(0-5) 4 Credibility

(0-5) 4

Using the domain map as a guide, 125 scan hits were captured in an online library. The scan hits on the following 5 pages were evaluated more deeply with respect to potential future implications.

13

SCAN HIT 2

Title What is PeTaL? Author NASA (Principal Investigator: Dr. Vikram Shyam)Brief source NASA V.I.N.E Website | PeTaL Date Accessed 9/10/19STEEP Categories Technology Domain Map

& KeywordsCat 1: Big Data Management Cat 2: Innovation Methodologies, Keywords: Biomimicry, Databases

URL https://www.grc.nasa.gov/vine/about/what-is-petal/ (last page update: Jan 27, 2018)

Type(bold one) Actual event New trend New cycle New plan Potential event New information New issue

Brief description of the item

The Periodic Table of Life (PeTaL) is intended to be a design tool to enable a deeper understanding of natural systems and to enable the creation or improvement of nature-inspired systems. The tool includes an unstructured database, data analytics tools and a web-based user interface. Three levels of information are expected to be captured: morphology that would aid designers by providing context-specific physical design rules, function-morphology relationships to provide nature-inspired solution strategies, and system-level relationships that involve the interaction of several biological models including flow of resources and energy. In its current form, PeTaL is structured as a large NoSQL database that will be accessible to researchers and citizen scientists. It includes entomological and paleontological data from the Cleveland Museum of Natural History (CMNH) in Cleveland, OH, the Cincinnati Museum Center in Cincinnati, OH and the Smithsonian. PeTaL can display relationships between biological models, geography, and environment through maps and plots. These may be used to glean patterns or design rules. Data can also be downloaded for further analysis. A more systematic design process is under development that will allow multiple models to be used for the various stages of design. PeTaL is intended to go live by October 2018.

How could the future be different as a result?

Currently, application of bio-inspired design process for innovation exists within a relatively small field of practitioners in academia, consultants, and a few companies due to the relatively high investment of time and resources and specialized skill sets to find all of the biology, etc. and then translate it to the desired problem space. Once PeTaL is fully operational and with a sizable, relevant database (which will take a lot of effort to develop), anyone including companies will be able to use it to find biological inspiration much more readily for problem solving.

What are the potential implications for…?

…the Client: Consumer Packaged Goods Company

The solution space developed by nature has been barely tapped by the business community and case studies where it has been used have demonstrated very novel approaches to addressing problems. If CPG companies could easily access and apply bioinspiration it might lead to a higher probability of creating novel, workable solutions in a much faster timeframe to address innovation challenges. It would also require researchers/product developers to have access to expertise in analogical thinking skills to translate the inspiration to the company specific problem space (depending on the capabilities of the PeTaL interface).

Horizon(bold one)

H1 Confirming (baseline scenario)

H2 Resolving (between scenarios)H3 Creating (new scenario)

Impact(0-5) 3 Plausibility

(0-5) 3

Novelty(0-5) 4 Credibility

(0-5) 5

14

SCAN HIT 3

Title Sony now has a Koov robotics learning kit for US classrooms Author Natasha Lomas

Brief source TechCrunch Date Feb 14, 2018STEEP Category/s

Technological, Social Domain Map & Keywords

Cat1: creativity Cat 2: education Keyword 1: STEAM Keyword 2: secondary education

URL https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/14/sony-now-has-a-koov-robotics-learning-kit-for-us-classrooms/

Type(bold one)

Actual event New trend New cycle New plan Potential event New information New issue

Brief description of the item

The Koov system is designed for children aged eight and older. And as well as translucent plug together blocks and Arduino-compatible electronics bits, there’s a Scratch-based drag and drop coding interface to link physical creation with digital control, via a cross-platform companion app. The Educator Kit contains more than 300 connectable blocks in all, plus multiple sensors, motors, LEDs and other electronics bits and bobs. It also includes class management software, curriculum-aligned lesson plans, step-by-step guides for kids and student progress reports. The Koov kit also includes 23 pre-designed, pre-coded “Robot Recipes” to encourage kids to get building right away. Though the wider aim of the Koov system is to support children being able to design and build their own robots (back to that ‘Art’ element) — and indeed Sony claims there are “countless” ways to stick its blocks and bits together. So much like Lego, then. Sony is also explicitly targeting ‘STEAM’ learning, with the ‘A’ in the acronym standing for ‘Art’, alongside the more usual Science, Technology, Engineering and Math components, which sets Koov apart from some less flexible learn to code gizmos in the market.

How could the future be different as a result?

Following in the footsteps of smaller, similar electronics coding kits, large companies like SONY developing STEM-related learning toys which incorporate “A”rts or STEAM could lead to a wider range of educational resources that support development of creative thinking skills, particularly in combination with use of technology.

What are the potential implications for…?

…the Client: Major Consumer Packaged Goods Company

Incorporating creativity skills, particularly in combination with technology applications in early education through various means may lead to a workforce with that competency of creatively working with technology. While companies may need to still upskill their employees in the technology of the day, it will be more intuitive for them to adopt.

Horizon(bold one)

H1 Confirming (baseline scenario)

H2 Resolving (between scenarios)H3 Creating (new scenario)

Impact(0-5) 3 Plausibility

(0-5) 3

Novelty(0-5) 3

Credibility(0-5) 3

15

SCAN HIT 4

TitleListening to the ‘In’ Crowd: The Value of Institutional Knowledge in a Gig Economy

Author Adam Siegel

Brief source Observer Date 11/16/16

STEEP Category/s Economic Domain Map & Keywords

Cat 1: Freelance Cat 2: Knowledge Management Keyword 1: gig economy Keyword 2: contractors

URL https://observer.com/2016/11/listening-to-the-in-crowd-the-value-of-institutional-knowledge-in-a-gig-economy/

Type(bold one) Actual event New trend New cycle New plan Potential event New

information New issue

Brief description of the item

“With the rise of the gig economy, there’s increasingly more knowledge transfer among workers and employers — as different independent contractors can fill the same role. This frequent changeover at the ground level of organizations is widening the gap between top executives and the end consumer, leading to costly, often avoidable missteps…As the gig economy moves from very specific functions to more strategic roles (a trend that’s accelerating due to potential cost savings and perceived access to specialized skills), the institutional knowledge to drive projects efficiently and innovate organically is threatened.”

How could the future be different as a result?

The composition of project teams within businesses will become more dynamic and change significantly, with mixtures of full time and contract workers, each with different levels of institutional memory. Knowledge normally retained by the full-time workforce in the company and able to be applied to future work will be lost to the company when contract workers leave upon completion of their gig. As this becomes more prevalent and contractors fill more pivotal roles, this would impact the work culture, team cohesiveness and innovation capabilities of the organization.

What are the potential implications for…?

…the Client: Consumer Products Company

To address the knowledge drain potential from high use of contract worker, the CPG companies may need to develop more robust knowledge management practices so that new learning/insights from contract workers can be captured more effectively. AI might play a strong role in knowledge management. Additionally, higher levels of contract workers with a lack of/or lesser degree of institutional knowledge will be more likely to come up with “naïve” ideas and not constrained by the “we’ve already tried that” mindset. This suggests that contract workers could be strategically placed within innovation teams broaden diversity of thought.

Horizon(bold one)

H1 Confirming (baseline scenario)

H2 Resolving (between scenarios)H3 Creating (new scenario)

Impact(0-5) 4 Plausibility

(0-5) 4

Novelty(0-5) 2 Credibility

(0-5) 4

16

SCAN HIT 5

Title The Era of the Specialist Is Over Author Aytekin Tank

Brief source Entrepreneur Date February 21, 2019STEEP Category/s Economic Domain Map &

KeywordsCat 1: Jobs/Roles Cat 2: EducationKeyword 1: Polymath Keyword 2: generalists

URL https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/327712

Type(bold one)

Actual event New trend New cycle New plan Potential event New information New issue

Brief description of the item

A modern polymath is “someone who becomes competent in at least three diverse domains and integrates them into a top one-percent skill set…” Experts predict that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will eventually render most jobs obsolete. The only roles left to human hands, and minds, will require innovation, creative problem-solving, and emotional acuity…Soon, every field will merge with technology to replace familiar careers. That’s where the polymaths come in. As true polymath cultivates deep knowledge in at least two different fields and given the future of AI…one of those fields will likely always be technology. For decades, humanity’s greatest breakthroughs have come from multifaceted thinkers, not deep specialists. Founder and entrepreneur Kyle Wiens also believes that strict specialization is too limiting. “So, we push our coders to learn how to write well,” Wiens wrote in Harvard Business Review. “We encourage our technicians to learn programming. We even bought a laser cutter to help our designers tinker. We push them out of their particular specializations to keep them learning.”

How could the future be different as a result?

Today most CPG companies hire employees with defined skill sets (engineering, chemistry, finance, etc.) to fill similarly fitting roles, not generalists. Shifting to generalist or polymath hiring preferences, college/grad school students might shift towards unique degree combinations to become more desirable to companies. Similarly, experienced employees with less typical career paths may become more desirable than ones that focused on deepening their expertise. Internal corporate upskilling programs might be designed to create a combination of polymath variations. Ability to assess the value polymaths could bring to the organization would likely evolve to guide academic programs and hiring practices.

What are the potential implications for…?

…the Client: Consumer Products CompanyCompanies which can find and leverage polymath “super-professionals” in a deliberate way would have the potential to foster more impactful innovations within their teams, particularly in the context of a smaller workforce (due to automation and AI). Companies would also have to create space for the polymaths to continue to learn (which is likely inherently important to them), lowering overall productivity. Upskilling employees to become polymaths would be a significant investment, might lead to companies locking in employees to long-term contracts to make sure they get value out of their investment. Bringing in Polymaths from the outside would likely require higher pay scales.

Horizon(bold one)

H1 Confirming (baseline scenario)

H2 Resolving (between scenarios)

H3 Creating (new scenario)

Impact(0-5) 3 Plausibility

(0-5) 4

Novelty(0-5) 4 Credibility

(0-5) 3

1717

Futuring

+ Trends, Issues, Plans, Projections

+ Future Drivers

+ Cross Impact Analysis

+Archetype Drivers

+ Future Scenarios 03

18

FUTURING INPUTS

Work TrendsRemote Work - The number of employers offering a work from home option has grown by 40% in the past 5 years.

Productivity Helpers – Bots and other tech used to increase efficiency, reduce wasted time (page 91)

Contractors on the Rise – Companies preferring to hire more contractors rather than full time workersChoosing to Freelance - From 2013-2018, people increasingly made the choice to freelance, growing by 3.7 million to 56.7 million Americans. Skewed younger, but covering all age ranges.VR/AR for Business – Business are increasingly investing in adopting augmented and virtual reality technologies for training, collaboration, design, etc.

Aging Workforce – Labor force participation of workers 55-64, 64-74 and 75+ are growing with rates at younger ages declining or remaining steady.

The initial starting point for scenario development involved gathering a diverse range of inputs in the categories of trends, issues, plans, and projections.

CPG Industry TrendsSmaller Players Growing More - Smaller, nimble CPG companies are disrupting the marketplace. In fact, 53 percent of reported growth in US food and beverage came from the smaller players, while only 2 percent came from the largest.

Mergers & Acquisitions - Global M&A activity among the world’s top 50 consumer goods companies jumped 45% to a 15-year high of 60 deals in 2017.Online purchasing - Online sales grew 35% in the CPG industry last year, highlighting a fast-growing segment in a slow-growth industry.

Org. Creativity TrendsCrowdsourcing Innovation - FMCG brands were the most active in crowdsourcing with a 43% share of 2016 ideation contests and an activity growth of 40% over 2015.

Industry Funded Research – Funding of university research by industry has been steadily growingExternal Collaboration – Companies went beyond their walls for ideas. Incubator use by “strong innovators” rose from 59% (2015) to 75% (2018), academic relationships jumped from 60% to 81% in the same period, formation of company partnerships grew from 65% to 83%.Design Thinking – Design thinking methodology is continuing to grow in exposure and broadening to wider range of industries like IT.

TrendsKey changes that are increasing, decreasing or holding steady

19

FUTURING INPUTS

Issues

How can buy-in be created for deliberate creativity skills be taught in education, and if so at what level(s)?

To what extent should formalized creative processes (e.g. design thinking, creative problem solving, design sprints) be part of day-to-day business in CPGs?

To what extent can a highly diverse, dispersed (remote vs collocated) workforce effectively collaborate?

Plans

Upskilling employees - announcement that Amazon will invest US$700 million to retrain 100,000 employees – a third of its U.S. workforce – in new technologies.

Investment in AI - China has laid out plans to become the world leader in artificial intelligence (AI) by 2030, with the aim of making the industry worth 1 trillion yuan ($147.7 billion).

Diversity & Inclusion – 150 CEOs signed a pledge to take action to cultivate workplace that fosters diversity and inclusion

Projections

Creativity in Demand in a World of Automation – In a world of automation and AI, businesses say the top needed skills are problem-solving, adaptability, collaboration, leadership, creativity and innovation. (p. 30)

Human-Machine Collaboration – Consumer goods companies investing in AI and human-machine collaboration expected to have 51% increase in revenues and 9% increase in employment.

Intelligent Automation - The areas of highest growth for intelligent automation adoption/piloting for consumer products companies in the next 3 years includes manufacturing and product design/development followed by cross-functional collaboration.

Middle Class Explosion - Globally, middle class spending will almost triple by 2030.

Intelligent Automation - The areas of highest growth for intelligent automation adoption/piloting

IssuesConflicts, controversies, dilemmas, choices not yet made

Plans Plans or intentions announced by stakeholders

ProjectionsCurrent forecasts

20

Tech-Augmented Creativity

Technological innovations will increasingly free up time for humans to be creative but will also create immersive environments and data-based insights to enhance the human creative process.

FUTURE DRIVERS ANALYSIS

Innovation Ecosystems

Companies are looking outside their walls to the crowd, partnerships, incubators, and universities to bring in new ideas.

These trends, issues, plans, and projections were developed into thematic clusters to create the future “drivers” important for shaping the future of organization creativity.

Dynamic Workforce

The collocated, full-time workforce of the past is shifting towards remote workers and freelancers. Corporations are emphasizing diversity and inclusion and preparing for an older workforce.

Valuing Creativity Skills

The business world is starting to appreciate that creative thinking is not just a highly desirable skill but a must-have skill for its workforce. to create the innovation it needs.

Adaptive Expertise

To remain competitive, companies will more quickly adapt its workforce’s capabilities by upskilling full time employees and contracting subject-matter experts on demand.

Start-up Mindset

Established corporations attempting to replicate the growth of startups by incorporating start-up thinking into their practices and bringing in those mindsets, new ideas and innovations through acquisitions and mergers.

21

CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS

Innovation Ecosystems

Dynamic Workforce

Valuing Creativity Skills

Tech-Augmented Creativity

Adaptive Expertise

Startup Mindset

Innovation Ecosystems 0 - + + +

Dynamic Workforce 0 + ++ + 0

Valuing Creativity

Skills+ ++ ++ + +

Tech-Augmented Creativity

+ ++ ++ ++ +

Adaptive Expertise - + 0 + +

Startup Mindset + 0 - + +

Cross impact analysis was used to explore driver inter-relationships. Tech-augmented creativity and valuing creativity skills were the most influential. Tech-augmented creativity, adaptive expertise, followed by dynamic workforce were the most influenced.

As th

is d

rive

r oc

curs

…

The impact on this driver is…

2

4

7

8

2

2

2 5 1 7 6 4Driver

DependenceScore

Driver Influence

Score

++ (2) Strongly

Reinforces

+ (+1) Reinforces

0 Neutral

- (-1) Contradicts

-- (-2) Strongly

Contradicts

22

ARCHETYPE DRIVERS

To prepare for scenario development, the archetype drivers method was used to create different patterns of change based off of the six previously developed continuation (or baseline) drivers.

Hines, A., Evolution of Framework Foresight Part 5 Archetypes at Hinesight blog, 17 October 2018, accessed at

https://www.andyhinesight.com/foresight-2/evolution-of-framework-foresight-part-5-archetypes/

New Equilibrium

Collapse

Transformation

Start-up Mindset Innovation EcosystemsLarge CPGs are attempting to replicate the growth of startups by incorporating start-up mindsets into their practices and absorbing those mindsets, ideas and innovations through acquisitions and mergers.

CPGs are increasingly looking outside their walls to the crowd, partnerships, incubators, and universities to bring in new ideas.

Large CPGs break up and reimagine themselves as a collective “hive” of “small innovation players". Connected by an executive “queen” organization, the “small players” seek out innovation opportunities connecting with other innovation hives.

CPGs outsource almost all product innovation to external innovation ecosystem brokers, focusing the majority of internal resources on source-to-shelf activities.

Large CPGs create their own large startup incubators to attract and assess small players.

Players in the innovation ecosystems become exclusive partners with particular companies in different categories to manage IP and competitive concerns.

An overemphasis on being fast to market, and acquiring too many small players results in bloated hodge-podge CPG portfolios lacking connection to coherent long-term strategies. Brand equity is damaged in mind of consumers and the street.

Innovation shifts from open to closed due to a) high competition between for innovation partners, b) heightening concerns for IP and confidentiality and c) experiences of mediocre success from over-reliance on the “crowd” to define innovation priorities.

Continuation

ContinuationThe current system continues along its trajectory - no major disruptions or surprises.

TransformationThe old system is discarded in favor of a new one resulting in fundamental change.

New EquilibriumThe system responds to a challenge, is forced to adapt but keeps recognizable features.

CollapseThe system falls into a state of dysfunction, the established ways no longer work.

23

ARCHETYPE DRIVERS

New Equilibrium

Collapse

Transformation

Dynamic Workforce Adaptive ExpertiseThe co-located, full-time workforce increasingly shifts towards remote workers and freelancers. Companies are placing an increased emphasis on supporting diversity and inclusion and preparing for an increasingly older workforce.

To remain competitive, companies will more quickly adapt its workforce’s capabilities by upskilling full time employees and contracting subject-matter experts on demand.

Companies shift from hierarchy and siloes to dynamic, on-demand team-based structures more compatible with a diverse, disperse, freelance workforce. HR and AR/VR technologies enables and engages this workforce. Diversity and Inclusion expands to neurodiversity empowering ASD employees.

Polymaths are highly desired as full-time innovation team members, with specialists contracted as needed. Lifelong learning is the expectation of career development, with companies supporting a very wide range of educational opportunities.

All employees interact virtually, even co-located ones to normalize employee interactions.

Tiered upskilling of employees is implemented, with some team/departments prioritized over others. Contractors used in important but non-critical innovation roles.

The diverse, dispersed, highly freelance workforce rejects outdated work & incentive structures. Co-located and remote workers identify as separate groups preferring to work within their own. Highly-skilled employees are in high demand and prefer to freelance. They readily job-jump leading to work disruption.

Too little investment and prioritization of internal education programs results in limited payoff of upskilling efforts. Contractors are kept at arm’s length in innovation projects with concerns they may breach confidentiality when moving to their next job.

Continuation

24

ARCHETYPE DRIVERS

New Equilibrium

Collapse

Transformation

Valuing Creativity Skills Tech-Augmented CreativityThe business world is starting to appreciate

that creative thinking is not just a highly

desirable skill but a must-have skill for its

workforce to create the innovation it needs.

Technological innovations will increasingly free

up time for humans to be creative but will also

create immersive environments and data-

based insights to enhance the human creative

process.

Culture of creativity/innovation is fully

embraced throughout entire organizations and

embedded in ways of working.

Human augmentation is leveraged at multiple

levels to enable more impactful human-

machine collaboration and enhance individual

and team creative performance.

Select individuals and teams are viewed and

nurtured as “creatives” and used as creativity

“fixers” on key projects throughout the

organization

Artificial intelligence prioritizes and directs all

human-based innovation work in organizations.

Enamored with the latest fads in innovation

process approaches and business fads, CPG

companies see limited-to no-ROI of investing in

one-off training programs of their overstretched

product development teams. View of creativity

shifts back to serendipity and not a skill.

CPGs are unable to see benefits of AI much

beyond basic manufacturing and data analytics

due to poor interface design for product

developers/designers and limited internal tech

support. Employee distrust of “productivity

helpers” and human augmentation limits use.

Continuation

After review of the archetype drivers, two scenarios were determined to be of the most value for the

client: Continuation (Baseline) and Transformation.

25

BASELINE FUTURE

Title: Short Circuit

Leveraging AI, automation for human-machine collaboration to create new innovationin a diverse and complex work environment, but with varied degrees of success

Abstract

The opportunities presented by the growing middle class has created a dynamiccompetitive landscape for large CPG companies where both competition with andacquisition of start-ups is significant. CPG product development teams are lean andrely on open innovation to address gaps in their internal capabilities. Investments inAI and machine learning accelerate CPG internal innovation efforts, but with wideranging success. Upskilling is critical for R&D teams to stay up-to-date and leveragedata-driven innovation approaches. CPG companies speak to the importance ofcreativity and support learning and development opportunities for design thinking butwith varied degrees of implementation.

The first scenario represents the extrapolation of present trends and forces, otherwise known as the “baseline” future. Three drivers, in particular, were influential in shaping this scenario.

Key Drivers

Tech-Augmented Creativity

Use of technologies that support human creativity through productivity enhancement, creation of immersive innovation environments and data-based insights

Dynamic Workforce

The influence of the shifting nature ofthe workforces towards more remote(versus co-located), freelance anddiverse.

Valuing Creativity Skills

The appreciation by industry that creative thinking skills need to be nurtured in their workforce and their taking action towards it.

26

BASELINE SCENARIO NARRATIVE – SHORT CIRCUIT

Competitive Environment The global expansion of the middle class has createdopportunities for CPG companies allowing them to reach into new markets andconsumers. But it’s not easy, the competitive landscape to reach these consumers hasbecome more increasingly dynamic with large global CPG companies competing withan ever-present number of local and fast-growing startups empowered by AI-enhancedconsumer insights and access to small-scale automated production capabilities. LargeCPGs view these startups as a way to further expand their innovation portfolios andcompete with each other to acquire them. They are empowered to define the rightacquisitions more quickly through AI-enhanced data analytics.

Working in CPG Companies Competitive pressures have required many large CPGsto downsize their full-time workforce over time, particularly for those where significantautomation of manufacturing facilities was possible. The composition of the workforceis more diverse with many global, remote workers. Contract workers are extensivelyused to manage dynamic business project needs at more manageable labor costs. Thisdiverse, disperse workforce has made collaboration challenging within these large,complex organizations resulting in lower than expected innovation performance forsome CPGs. Those which invested in augmented and virtual reality-basedcommunication methods and focused attention to diversity/inclusion and integratingwork cultures from their acquired startups have experienced improvement in both.

The following two pages include a more detailed narrative description of the the baseline “Short Circuit” scenario.

27

BASELINE NARRATIVE

Product Development and Innovation Speed of innovation has become critical, placingadditional pressure on the much leaner R&D departments. Investments in open-innovationhave continued to grow and becoming a significant portion of some R&D budgets, allowinginternal R&D groups to focus more on translating the ideas and discovery of OI partners to theirproducts and less on primary research.

Machine learning-guided materials/ingredients identification and prototyping algorithms haveallowed researchers to accelerate evaluation and iteration of ideas with consumers.Unfortunately, CPG categories with more complex products have not been able to leveragethese enhancements to product development to the same degree as categories likefood/beverage.

Some CPG companies started early on the AI and automation journey established “human-machine collaboration managers” and technicians to support their growing AI and robotics-enhanced R&D capabilities while many of their less prepared counterparts are having morespotty success in translating data into innovation opportunities.

Upskilling has become important for R&D professionals to stay up-to-date on the latesttechnologies, allowing them to work more effectively and collaboratively with AI and intelligentautomation. Design thinking and creativity skills courses have also become morecommonplace within learning & development curricula. The importance of creativity isarticulated in the aspirations and objectives of most companies but implementation variessignificantly beyond L&D opportunities with few companies embedding a “culture of creativity”throughout their organizations.

Blah blah

28

TRANSFORMATION FUTURE SCENARIO

Title: The Matrix

Modular, dynamic organizations optimized for external partnering and internal collaboration, enabled by seamless integration of technologies designed to augment the human creative process.

Abstract

Large CPGs have restructured into matrix organizations of autonomous innovation units able to deftly react and capture innovation and growth opportunities targeted at the growing global middle class. The work environment is highly dynamic and geared to creating on-demand product development teams which are mindfully selected by AI/HR partners from a pool of remote, co-located, freelance, and neurodiverse workers. Use of VR/AR tools facilitate immersive, socially-connected collaborative interactions. Generalists outnumber specialists on product development teams, favored for their ability to creatively synthesize complex and diverse data sets. Product developers direct the work of their R&D contractors who perform the day-to-day innovation activities using state-of-the art AI, robotics and intelligent automation. Wearable AI interfaces augment product developers and R&D contractors ability to innovate and creatively collaborate. Employee career development emphasizes lifelong learning to expand domain expertise and ability to make creative connections.

The second scenario illustrates a fundamental change from the current system, where the current ways of working are replaced with completely new ones.

Key Differences from Baseline

The work environment and approaches for building innovation teams is targeted for the composition of the future workforce, abandoning the rigid organizational structures of the past.

AI and wearable tech directly impacts creative behaviors and creative process of both individual and collaborative work

CPG restructuring creates new opportunities for partnering and bringing in outside innovation

CPG contracting of R&D capabilities on a large scale allows their innovation workforce of product developers to shift away from specialists towards “big-picture thinking” generalists

29

TRANSFORMATION NARRATIVE – THE MATRIX

Competitive Environment To innovate quickly and harness the economic opportunitiespresented by the global expansion of the middle class, large CPG companies have moved awayfrom their more rigid top-down hierarchical structures with “business units” and transformed intomore flat matrix structures comprised of autonomous “innovation units.” Innovation units have theability to act like “small players” while still being able to tap into the capabilities, knowledge andscale of the parent organization. These innovation units emboldened by their “venture capitalist” AIare quick to identify partnering opportunities between CPG peers and integrating start-ups into theirunits but will also later spin them off as new “innovation units” as they become self-sufficient.

Working in CPG Companies Innovation units have undergone a similarly radical change inorganization – the siloed, departmental structures no longer exist. Product development teams areformed dynamically as needed, informed by “dream-team” builder AI algorithms under the watchfuleye of an HR partner which carefully consider the unique combination of skills and experienceneeded for the project as well as the development preferences and needs for the individuals.Neurodiversity initiatives provide opportunities for ASD employees to contribute in impactful waysand particularly in AI interfacing roles. Contractors integrate seamlessly into these dynamic teamstructures, and with the variety of opportunities available in the innovation matrix structure, theyoften prefer to float between the different innovation units of the CPG matrix rather than looking foropportunities outside.

Virtual and augmented reality communication tools allow remote and co-located team members tointeract in immersive virtual workspaces fostering the social interactions valuable for collaboration.

The following two pages include a more detailed narrative description of “The Matrix” transformation scenario.

30

TRANSFORMATION NARRATIVE (CONTINUED)

Product Development and Innovation Product development teams focus on identifying andkickstarting the most promising innovation opportunities. Their ability to develop unique insightshas improved significantly through a targeted balance of full-time “big-picture thinking” generalistsand contracted specialists on the teams.

But product development teams do little of the hands-on R&D themselves and prefer to contractwith open innovation partner “R&D units.” These self-contained R&D units are heavily invested inthe latest AI-based data analytics, intelligent automation and robotic pilot manufacturingcapabilities and act as the workhorses for the product development teams, which have limitedresources for such capital investments. Some R&D units have started having success applying“creative AI” towards innovation.

Neuro-interfaced “intelligence amplification” (IA) headsets are leveraged by R&D and ProductDevelopment teams to interpret and make decisions on research results through their seamlessAR interfaces. These IA headsets reinforce creative behaviors in the organization using “nudgeengines” which subtlety promote behavioral change by enabling employees to be aware of theircognitive biases and also more directly facilitating the practice of creative processes and tools inindividual and team settings.

Recognizing that differentiated innovation often comes from teams with the ability to creativelysynthesize a deluge of data and insights, innovation units favor bringing a range of generalists (“Pi-shaped”, “M-shaped” and “polymaths”) with broader domain expertise into their organizations aswell as creating their own by incentivizing their employees to participate in their life-long learningdevelopment programs.

3131

Visioning & Designing

+ Implications Analysis

+ Strategic Recommendations 04

32

IMPLICATIONS ANALYSIS

shifting to decentralized & contract R&D functions

Shifting away from specialists to generalists

Use of neuro-interfaced “intelligence amplification”

technology

Implications of the “Matrix” scenario were explored for the Product Development function of the CPG company. The following potential changes were of greatest relevance for the client.

Prioritized Important Implications

oIncreased employee pressure to constantly learn and develop broader expertise to both get (and keep) a joboData analysts/AI experts are integral and important to product development teams oStudents (future employees) leveraging non-college-based learning opportunities [to develop towards M, Pi, polymath expertise]oEmployee concerns about manipulation by intelligence amplification tech

Prioritized Provocative Implications

oImpact of intelligence amplification tech to human health/well-beingoContract R&E companies have greater influence on CPG innovation decisions oPolymath thinking tests used by HR to screen new hires or evaluate current employeesoShift away from traditional majors at universitiesoPerception of human creativity in business will become intrinsically tied to intelligence amplification technology (versus an innate human characteristic)

The “most important” and “most provocative” implications (bold) were explored in more detail to develop options for strategic responses which can be found on pages 34-35.

The futures wheel method (p. 33) was used to identify important and provocative implications

33

FUTURES WHEELS

Abbreviated futures wheels for two of the three potential changes explored to define implications.

34

MOST PROVOCATIVE ISSUE – STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATION

What actions should be taken? How should they start?

Human augmentation (intelligence amplification) has the potential to better help people access and apply their creative potential but it exists in tension with the unknown impacts to human health and behavior and concerns of undesired influence by “big brother.”

pilot non-intrusive IA tech with product developers

partner with IA manufacturers for

algorithm transparency in advanced IA tech

develop safeguards/standards with

privacy advocates

Why is this important?

In “The Matrix” scenario it is important for product developers and researchers to be able to creatively synthesize the vast amounts of data available to them to quickly generate new innovation. “Intelligence amplification” technologies will be essential to do that.

Recommended Response

Start small and build trust towards advanced augmentation approaches

Who owns it? CPG product developers and their R&D contractor partners

35

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE – STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATION

What actions should be taken? How should they start?

Desire for polymath product developers (accomplished either through new hires pursuing multi-disciplinary educations or employees constantly developing themselves on the job) would negatively impact future/current employees (e.g. financial burden, joy-at-work, work-life balance, delayed employment) and ultimately become counterproductive to fostering organizational creativity

volunteer AI development program for product developers

pay new hires to stay in school for additional

coursework in tech/AI

conduct study with OD specialists to design future

"polymath" program

Why is this important?

In “The Matrix” scenario, product developers will be challenged to creatively synthesize very diverse sets of data in the context of complex, uncertain business scenarios to create new innovation opportunities. Employees with expertise in technology (particularly AI) and combinations of other subject matter areas are believed to be best suited to handle this type of work over specialists.

Recommended Response

Pilot AI skill development programs with new hires and interested product developers

Who owns it? Human Resources