Possible futures of open education

Two scenarios for the University of Mary Washington’s OER Summit-

May 2016

• Monthly environmental scan report

• Trends identified, tested, projected

Open as part of a trends mapOpen as part of a trends map

1: Education and its contexts

Changes in international education - macroeconomic indicators - adjunctification - enrollment changes - alternative certification - possible intergenerational tension - demographics. Racial inequality in/and education; campuses and sexual assault controversy; athletic budgets doing well; K-12 and higher education; library changes; alternative degrees; shared academic services; remedial classes; challenges to internships; campuses and sustainability; executive compensation controversy.

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2: Technology3d printing continues to innovate and grow - digitization shifts from physical media to streaming - device ecosystem keeps growing - social media - open source - shopping continues to migrate online - copyright battles continue - automation’s promise.Augmented reality’s steady march; Ebooks; digital security threats expanding; the limits of the Web; cloud computing; a shift in Moore’s Law? crowdfunding growing; onshoring hardware production; Office versus Web office; digital video rising; new interfaces; fragmented internet; Internet of things; new forms of creativity.

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3: Education and technology3: Education and technology

The LMS world - more MOOCs and online learning - social media in education - rise of the net.generation - educational entrepreneurship - open education possibilities - digital humanities develops.Mobile devices in education; gaming in education; big data and data analytics; badges; flipped classroom/blended learning; automation in education; campus digital security threats growing; video and education; crowdfunding in academia; Virtual reality in education; Ebooks in higher education; shared academics; 3d printing across the curriculum; crowdsourcing in academia; faculty criticizing deployment of technology; maker movement. 5

Trends assessed and tracked Trends assessed and tracked longitudinally longitudinally

1. Fall of the Silos

(Previous photo: https://www.flickr.com/photos/cogdog/5645508446/ )

Open…

• Content• Teachin

g

• Access

• Source

Social changes

• Rise of the sharing mindset

• Gig economy: rapid switching, less employee loyalty

Good things• Global conversations increase,

filter bubble pops• More access, more information• Lots of creativity• AIs grow based on open content• Content crosses class divides

Not so good things• Industries collapse• Authorship mysterious• Some low quality tech

(videoconf.)• Hard to solve macro

scholarly problems

Good things on campus• Information prices drop• Faculty creativity,

flexibility grow• IT “ “ “• Academic content

unleashed on the world

Not so good things• Some higher costs• More malware + less

privacy• Increased fallibility

of scholarship

How does this impact campuses?

• Tech challenges• Outsourcing and offshoring• PLE beats LMS• Crowdsourcing faculty work

How does this impact campuses?

• Crowdsourcing faculty work• Information literacy central• Students as cocreators and

creators

• Internet has always been open

• Web <> money• Online identity has

always been fictional, playful

2. Closed and proprietary wins

https://www.flickr.com/photos/quinnanya/3334056228/

Closed and proprietary…

• Content• Teachin

g

• Access

• Source

Social changes

• Users as accessors, not owners

• Living with a permanent record

Good things• High quality content +

software• Authorship durable• Low amounts of cybercrime• “ “ “ abuse• AI projects partner with

content providers

Good things on campus• Guaranteed information quality• Faculty and staff develop long-

term habits and skills• Scholarly record durable

(ORCID)• Major movements to improve

scholarship, solve science problems

Not so good things• Prices are high• Remixing is rare• Class divide steep• N-S “ “

How else does this impact campuses?

• LMSes anchor campus tech• People attached to providers• Libraries are licensors• Students as consumers on

campus• Institutional divide widens

• Identify with commercial providers

• Stable, long-term digital identity

• See the digital world as a mall

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bryan.alexander@gmail.com

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