Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios
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Future of Higher Education
OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios
Bucharest – 31 October 2009
Kiira KärkkäinenOECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)
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Outline
OECD Process
Selected Trends
OECD Scenarios
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Future of Higher EducationOECD Process
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OECD Process
OECD Directorate for Education
OECD Directorat
e for Education
Indicators and
Analysis
Management of
Higher Education
Education & Training
Policy
Centre for Educational Research
and Innovation
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OECD Process
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)
Aims to inform long-term educational policy development and making through…
Forward-looking research
Educational innovation
International exchanges
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OECD Process
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)
Although long term thinking in education is important, educational policy making is often done with a short term
perspective.
Two parallel forward looking CERI projects– Schooling for Tomorrow– Future of Higher Education – University
Futures
Institutional synergies
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OECD Process
University Futures
Objectives– Feed strategic reflection on major questions– Highlight past developments and recent
changes– Underline future opportunities and challenges
International standpoint as a special feature
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OECD Process
University Futures
Two main types of activity1. Thematic trends analysis2. Dialogue with stakeholders and experts
Basis for future scenarios
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OECD Process
University Futures –Trends Analysis
From 6 initial themes…– Demography– Technology– Globalisation – market and quasi-
market forces– Academic research– Labour market
… to 3 final reports…– Demography – Globalisation– Technology
… and 3 cross-cutting themes– market and quasi-
market forces– Academic research– Labour market
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OECD Process
University Futures – Dialogue
Three types of meetings– Public conferences– Stakeholder meetings– Small senior-level
expert meetings
Some specific outputs – Overall, 12 events in 8
countries since 2003 – Discussions at the
Ministerial level in 2006
– Final international conference in 2008
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OECD Process
University Futures – Scenarios
Scenarios not seen as predictions of the future….
… but as a tool to combine several trends and think about future options in a
creative and structured manner.
Where are we going?
Where should we go and why?
How could we get there?
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OECD Process
Some Lessons Learned
Stakeholder and expert dialogue…
… brings in new and confirms old ideas…
…reflects and contrasts different points of view…
… develops common understanding on key issues…
…and adds political weight on scenarios.
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OECD Process
Some Lessons Learned
International comparative trends…
…help understand dynamics of change in a broader scale…
…support neutrality of analysis…
…but stay in general level…
…and are subject to path dependency.
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OECD Process
Some Lessons Learned
Institutional synergies…
…help with process and method…
…support data collection and use.
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Future of Higher Education
Selected Trends
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Selected Trends
Higher Education to 2030 Series
Forthcoming
• Volume 2: Globalisation
• Volume 3: Technology• Volume 4: Scenarios
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Selected Trends
Globalisation and Higher Education Higher education in globalised
world– Highly skilled workforce – Research and innovation capacity– Cross-cultural encounters
Global influences on higher education– Mobile students, faculty and
institutions– International financing– Cross-border flows of idea
Simultaneous forces of competition and collaboration
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Selected Trends
Increase in the Number of Foreign Students Worldwide and Projections
Source: OECD (2009)
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Selected TrendsNumber of National Students Abroad and Mobility Rate to Foreign Countries in 2007
Source: OECD (2009)
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Selected Trends
Destination of Foreign Students in the OECD Area (%) and Changes (% points)
Source: OECD (2009)
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Selected Trends
Breakdown of Foreign Students (%) and Changes (% points)
Source: OECD (2009)
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Selected Trends
Share of World Citations of Science and Engineering Articles
Source: OECD (2009)
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Selected TrendsPercentage of Worldwide Science and
Engineering Articles Coauthored Domesticallyand Internationally
Source: OECD (2009)
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Future of Higher EducationOECD Scenarios
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OECDScenarios
Four future scenarios by CERI
Open networking
Serving local communities
New public responsibility
Higher education, Inc.
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OECD Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Open NetworkingMain features
• International collaboration and networking leading to harmonization of systems
• New approaches to teaching• English as lingua franca• International collaborative
research, even if within the persistent hierarchy of institutions
• Free and open knowledge exchange and access to research
Related developments
• Bologna Process in Europe• International academic
partnerships and consortia• Increased mobility• Cheap and fast
communication facilitated by the Internet
• Developing culture of openness
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OECD Scenarios
Scenario 2 – Serving Local CommunitiesFeatures
• Institutions mainly focused on national, regional and/or local missions
• Mainly publicly funded and administered systems
• Streghtened financial support from local industry and needs-based lifelong learning
• Academics are trusted professionals with teaching as their central objective
• Convergence between universities and polytechnics
Related developments
• Scepticism regarding globalisation, even anti-globalisation movements
• Emergence of geo-strategic concerns
• Interest in preservation of national culture and fostering social cohesion
• Interest in regional role of higher education
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OECD Scenarios
Scenario 3 – New Public ResponsibilityFeatures
• Autonomy of institutions combined with greater use of ‘new public management’ tools
• Significant share of public funding with increasingly mixed resource base
• Strong public accountability, but also more private reward systems
• Marked diversification of institutions
• String national competition for public research funding
Related developments
• General quest for accountability, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness in public management
• Increasing institutional autonomy in many countries
• Cost-sharing and raising tuition fees increasingly under debate
• Increasingly competitive research funding
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OECD Scenarios
Scenario 4 – Higher Education Inc.Features
• Institutions competing globally on a commercial basis
• Public funding exclusively to non-commercially viable disciplines
• Strong competition for students with English as a key language of study
• Disconnection of research and teaching according to competitive advantage
• Concentration of research with worldwide competition for funding
Related developments
• Trade in higher education and inclusion of it in trade negotiations
• Increasing international mobility of students and cross-border higher education
• Increase of cross-border funding of research and private research activities
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Serving Local Communities
International
National
MarketDemand-driven
AdministrationSupply-driven
Open Networking Higher Education Inc.
New Public Responsibility
OECD Scenarios
Four Scenarios for Higher Education Systems