Future of healthcare
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By Wayne Caswell The FUTURE of Health Care © 2013, Modern Health Talk
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At Modern Health Talk, we see the future of mHealth as less about Mobile health and more about MODERN healthcare that includes all sorts of solutions for addressing demographic shift of retiring baby boomers and the resulting doctor shortage. These solutions include mobile technologies (smartphones & tablets) and big broadband support of high-def video calls with medical imaging, as well as new delivery options such as retail clinics and insurance-funded home care (and home modifications), remote sensor monitoring, healthcare robots, Watson-like cloud services, new laws & regulations, support of family caregivers, and more. The slides hint at the topics I cover as a public speaker but lack the discussion and delivery. To schedule a speaking engagement for your organization, contact me at waynecaswell AT mhealthtalk DOT com.
Transcript of Future of healthcare
By Wayne Caswell
The FUTURE of Health Care
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
From FutureMed University
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
What’s TRENDING
What’s NEEDED
What’s POSSIBLE
What INHIBITORS
What DRIVERS
WHICH Future?
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
SocialMedia
RisingCosts
DigitalSensors
Telemedicine
Telepresence
WirelessBroadband
AgingBoomers
Smartphones& Tablets
ModernHealth
Talk
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989
Live Births per Year (Millions)
Baby Bust(41 Million)
Baby Boom(76 Million)
Echo Boom(64 Million)
World Population more than doubled in 65 years.Average Lifespan up 30 years over last century. Living for 1,000 years is possible, futurists say.
As 10,000 Boomers turn 65/day, 90,000 Doctor Shortfall.Governments, Cities & Homes aren’t ready.
Unpaid Family Caretakers pick up slack.
IBM Mainframe computer, circa 1972(System/370 Model 158-3)
Apple smartphone, Christmas 2011(iPhone 4S)
COST: ~$3.5 million ($19M in 2011 dollars) COST: $200-$400 with 2 year contract
PERFORMANCE: 1 MIPS (million instructions per second)
PERFORMANCE: 5,000 MIPS (1 GHz dual-core processor rated at 2.5 DMIPS/MHz per core)
MEMORY: 4 MB max MEMORY: 512 MB standard
STORAGE: typical 1.5 GB (200 MB/drive) STORAGE: 16, 32 or 64 GB © Modern Health Talk
IBM Mainframe computer, circa 1972(System/370 Model 158-3)
My Toothbrush(Philips Sonicare)
COST: ~$3.5 million ($19M in 2011 dollars) COST: $69.99
PERFORMANCE: 1 MIPS (million instructions per second)
PERFORMANCE: 10 MIPS (Zilog Z8 embedded microprocessor)
MEMORY: 4 MB max
STORAGE: typical 1.5 GB (200 MB/drive) © 2013, Modern Health Talk
SENSORS in Homes measure:
PHONE for REMOTE ACCESS
•Contact, •Temperature, •Light, •Motion, •Acceleration, •Smell (CO2, off-gassing), •Pressure (pulse, blood pressure), •Moisture, •Chemicals
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
SENSORS in Homes, Cars and Clothing measure:
PHONE as HEALTH GATEWAY
•Contact, •Temperature, •Light, •Motion, •Acceleration, •Smell (CO2, off-gassing), •Pressure (pulse, blood pressure), •Moisture, •Chemicals
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
Minimally Invasive, Continuous MonitoringMonitor Trends to Avoid Lows & Highs
Understand Context of Readings
Guardian Glucose Monitor
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
FDA cleared for licensed medical professionals and prescribed patients to record, display, store and transfer single-channel electrocardiogram (ECG) rhythms.
Use AliveCor iPhone case to take ECG every day for a year for less than $1/test.Captures more info than a typical ECG at the doctor’s office and costs less.Send 365 ECGs to the doctor for less than the cost to have one done at the hospital.Monitor trends, know context of deviations, and predict (and avoid) problems.
$199 AliveCor Heart Monitor
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
Capsule EndoscopyA disposable capsule with video camera can examine parts of the small
intestine that standard scopes can’t reach. Video images are received by a recorder work on a belt and then downloaded to a computer for analysis.
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
Sensors as Temporary Tatt ooThe devices can pick up heartbeats when stuck on the chest, skeletal
muscle activity when on the leg, and brainwaves when on the forehead.
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
3D Printed Body Parts
L IVER EARS
BONES
Also: •bladder, •t rachea, •carti lage, •ur ine tubes , •spinal cords
But i t ’s sti l l just Research
It is now possible to use 3D printers to print cells that can multiply into actual fully printed tissues used in medical research… and to create organs.
© Modern Health Talk
Brain-Computer InterfaceIt’s now possible to Command a Robot or Fly a Helicopter with your thoughts.
And bulky sensor are no loner needed.
TeleHEALTH & TeleMEDICINEAt Home, at the Office,
on the Go, at a Kiosk
© Modern Health Talk
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
Peter Pan Homes
Governments , C iti es & Bui lders are Not Ready.
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
GREEDAnd the Corrupting Power
of Money in Politics
• Immensely Profitable Industry• Patients as Paying Customers• FFS: Treat Symptoms• Resistant to Change• Lobbying Influence
• Hospitals• Insurers• Drug Companies• Testing Companies• Equipment Providers
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
“You have a rare condition called ‘Good Health.”
Frankly, I’m not sure how to treat it.”
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
WATSON
Now being applied to Health Care & Medical Research.Watson can parse & analyze 300 M books in 3 seconds.
Medical Knowledge Doubles every 5 Years.250x faster and 8x smaller.
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
By 2013, a Supercomputer will exceed the computational & analytical power of the Human Brain. (Ray Kurzweil)
By 2023, a $1,000 computer will; and by 2037, a $0.01 computer will.
By 2049, a $1,000 computer will exceed the computational & analytical power of the Human Race.
And by 2059 a $0.01 computer will.
What IMPLICATIONS : Health, Career, Inequality, Political?
Technology is advancing . . .
EXPONENTIALLY
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
Is the Future Half Empty?
© 2013, Modern Health Talk
1.Too many People
2.Too many Elderly
3.Fossil Fuel driven Economy
4.Climate Change
5.Widening Income Gap
6.Greed
7.Education Never Over
8.Already Invented
9.Growth Limits
