Future of Central Victoria:Challenges and Opportunities Trevor Budge - Associate Professor

Community Planning and Development Program, Bendigo Campus

Goldfields Local Learning and Education Network

29 May, 2012

Themes

Population growth, economic development and the job opportunities and benefits that derive from them are unevenly distributed across the region.

Many people, especially in smaller towns and rural areas, have a high dependency on accessing services and facilities distant from where they live. Others across the region lack mobility or access to private transport and IT and communications.

Themes

Many of the traditional strengths of the region

(e.g. agriculture and manufacturing ) can no longer be relied upon to the same extent to provide an assured and stable base for future growth, investment and prosperity.

Large parts of the region and its population are (too) dependent on or heavily reliant on their proximity to Bendigo or Melbourne for work, goods and other services

Themes

The range of housing options available across the region, and the forms of new housing that is dominating the supply of new housing, is not matched to the current and projected needs of many households and the majority of future households.

Transport demands, requirements and access across the region are growing, access for the region's residents, especially those in more remote areas is critical.

Themes

Population Growth High – but uneven

Large parts of region are peri-urban – complex agenda

Higher Education and Vocational Training – the strength of the region's existing system - not capitalised on

Employment Clusters in Banking, Health, Education, the Arts – region needs to use this to its advantage

Compact Region with a strong spine – service links to hubs are often weak

Themes

Health Services and Provision – strong but new models of provision needed – take advantage of IT

Energy – capacity to generate in region is strong

Water – stronger planning, coordination and capacity to reuse needed

Areas of Highly Productive Land – need to protect and take greater advantage

Tourism – strong base and access to Melbourne and airport but depth of product lacking

Manufacturing – potential is still high?

Themes

Improving inter and intra regional connectivity, both actual transport facilities and services and IT communications and access to high speed broadband,

Better management of the needs of a growing population base

and the changing demographic structure particularly the ageing of the population,

Facilitating job generation and investment that better capitalises

on the region's strengths in health and the education and training system

ThemesUtilising the existing infrastructure and facilities in

existing cities and towns - Building a stronger degree of self-reliance in the region’s communities through a better integration and delivery of services.

Building the capacity and liveability of smaller cities and towns, Capitalise on the existing facilities in the network of cities and towns by

investing in infrastructure eg sewerage Expand accessibility to key services available to persons in smaller cities and

towns and rural areas

Themes

Better integrate workforce planning into the education and training system

Strengthen the region’s capacity to be more self reliant in terms of energy and water, and integrate planning for water with population growth and a settlement hierarchy and network

Lift the region's tourism and liveabilty profile

In contrast

“MELBOURNE's ethnic diversity, social cohesion and love of the arts have helped it win the Most Admired Knowledge City award. It recognises Melbourne's progress in moving from traditional manufacturing to more sustainable knowledge-based industries, such as biotechnology, education, design and communications. Melbourne's win over other finalists such as Barcelona and Singapore was announced yesterday at the Knowledge Cities World Summit in Melbourne.”

Seven Critical Factors -Influences

1. What will the baby boomers do?

2. Will the communities of the Region be just commuters

3. Housing affordability – will it be the driver?

4. How many jobs and what sort are generated in the urban growth corridor along the Calder road and rail corridor

5. What about the rural area – a lifestyle setting?

6. Capacity of each of the towns to retain and build their own identity – against the forces of sameness

7. Will movement along the corridor become two way?

                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                     

Commuting and Lifestyle

Factors driving growth

Lifestyle choices – heritage, landscapes Different housing options Corporatisation of jobs - contracts Salary packages including a car Less attachment to the place where the job is Retirements or pre-retirement shift

New Residents

Emphasis on Quality Lifestyle and Environment

Looking for Qualities not readily available in other locations

Places that ‘look after their community’ and value what they have are seen as attractive

New residents look beyond the metro to provide

Attractions that cannot be found in the city but access to the city is important

Characteristics of the New ResidentsHigh profile, affluent, boutique, Few ‘real’ farmers, Tourism/recreation strong – changing the character" Dominated by growing ‘new’ population who are

" demanding and articulate about services,

" health and environment conscious,

" IT connected or expect to be

" prepared to commute long distances – but for how long

" wanting to live in lively trendy places and vibrant regions, and hold their social, family and cultural links to other places

" making decisions on location based on a complex range of lifestyle quality factors

" They may be more likely to find that package of attributes in a town or rural setting

Having a sense of place

‘genuine communities • recognise their unique qualities, • understand their natural environments, • celebrate their unique histories, • foster artistic impulses, • emphasize locally owned businesses, • encourage participation, • facilitate active lifestyles and • strive to include people of different ethnicity, age, gender and

income.’

Native to Nowhere - Sustaining Home and Community in a Global Age - Timothy Beatley

Generalized Housing/Lifestyle Choices Affordable housing package

Heritage character neighborhood –

Conventional neighborhood housing –

‘New urbanism’ estate –

New contemporary build –

Rural residential – hobby farm

Quaint village –

Heritage character village -

Rural setting and views - trendy -

Lower cost – new facilities -

Alternative lifestyle –

Which ones can the Shire Offer?

Core Features of Towns

Quality of key services and facilities

The number of quality shops meeting local and lifestyle needs

Housing options – ageing population

Quality walking trails, libraries, fitness and activity centres

Long term commitment to quality environmental settings

Five Key Trends

1. Population growth leads jobs2. Amenity leads locational choices for households3. Locational choices increasingly driven by baby

boomer decisions4. Baby boomer decisions driven by new values5. New values emphasize lifestyle, community and

quality of life which includes stronger environmental values

Towns have great capacity to capitalise on these trends and forces

Critical Trends and Forces

GROWTH - Population growth of towns and their hinterlands

CHOICE - For the first time large numbers of people can choose where they live – population is now highly mobile

COMMUTING - Long distance travel for work is a realistic option

ACCESS - The role of out IT, broadband and mobile phones provides increasing options for work and home location

Critical Trends and Forces

TRANSPORT - Much better regional transport services

AGEING AND SAVINGS - Large numbers of people haven't got enough retirement savings so they will need to cash in their home – towns provide an option

LIVEABILITY - Increasing attraction of high amenity lifestyle towns and rural areas, coinciding with a rejection of aspects of metropolitan living

Metropolitan Policy Agendas

(Excessive) Population Growth

Congestion – Costs and Functioning

Sprawl – Consumption of Land – Lack of Community Facilities and Employment – Travel Distances

Problems with Public Transport and Lack of Investment

Housing Supply, Access and Affordability

Liveability – Increasing Concern

Climate Change – Sustainable Urban Forms

IF YOU REPLICATE THE METRO PROBLEM LIST – WHAT HAVE YOU GOT LEFT TO OFFER?

Ten trends and forces that are making a difference – not necessarily in this order

Their impact is incremental and cumulative and they affect different towns and places in different ways

Ten forces and trends

1. The nexus between where you live and work is broken for many people

2. For the first time in history large numbers of people can choose where they live

3. Commuting long distances for work is an option for a growing number of people

4. For the first time in history large numbers of people can choose how they work

5. The role of out IT, broadband and mobile phones provides increasing options for work and location

Ten forces and trends

6. Much better regional transport services will make a huge difference

7. Large numbers of people haven't got enough retirement savings so they will need to cash in their home

8. Increasing number of second homes - many of which will become the primary dwelling

9. Increasing attraction of high amenity rural lifestyle areas

10. Rejection of aspects of metropolitan living

Data

Reflection and Observation

Speculation

Shaping a Future

Evidence

Data – Statistics – Analysis – Knowledge - Wisdom

There are Lies, Damned Lies ….. and Statistics

Reliance on statistics leads some communities (in the US) to exaggerate their importance

What have been the key

changes in the last 20 + years?

Assists us to understand the possible dimensions of change over the next 20 + years

The Big Picture

• Understanding the big forces that are driving changes

• Placing your issue/problem in the context of trends, forces, external impacts and the repositioning of places, ideas, topics

• Avoiding the view that everything is the linear extension of what went before

• Consider the power of one off events to change the ground rules

What have been some of the key demographic changes in our region in the last 20 + years?

• Population growth

• Gradual or dramatic transformation of towns and many rural areas

• Some cities and towns have substantially changed their role(s)

• Population profile changing eg Access to Melbourne, liveability and affordability have proven to be major drivers

• Towns and rural areas have a different feel – suburban? peri-urban? rural? heritage? aspirational? affordable? community?

• The towns are network that offers diversity opportunities and options

Commuting (Melbourne) % of LF

Under 5%

5%-10%

10%-20%

20%-50%

Over 50%

Commuting (Bendigo) % of LF

Under 5%

5%-10%

10%-20%

20%-50%

Over 50%

Population Change 1996-2001 (Average Annual)

Loss

0-1.2%

>1.2%

Population Change 2001-2006 (Average Annual)

Loss

0-1.2%

>1.2%

Net Population Movement (15-25years) 2001-2006

Net GainBalanceNet Loss

(Balance includes +20 to -20 net movements)

Population Change: Urban Centres 1986-2006

Population Change: Urban Centres 1986-2006

Growth

Decline

Victoria’s annual population growth, 1836-2007

New method for estimating Net Overseas Migration introduced in June 2006Based on December population estimates

Projected growth of population and households, regional Victoria, 2006 - 2036

+477,000

+263,000

Unemployment and overseas migration, Australia, 1978 - 2008

Projected change of age structure, regional Victoria, 2006 & 2036

Baby Boomers 2006

27.5% of Australian Population

41.8% of Australian Workforce

27.2% of Capital Cities

41.4% of Labour Force of Capitals

Baby Boomers 2006 (cont.)

28.2% of Non-metropolitan Areas

45.2% of Labour Force of Non-metropolitan Areas

26.8% of Mid Sized Cities

42.1% of Mid Sized City Labour Force