Future methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture Reference projection 2010
15
Future methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture Reference projection 2010 Martha M. van Eerdt RIVM Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency In coöperation with Klaas van der Hoek, Marian van Schijndel, Dik Beker, Kees Peek en Ruud van de Wijngaart February 28, 2003 Copenhagen
description
Future methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture Reference projection 2010. Martha M. van Eerdt RIVM Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency In coöperation with Klaas van der Hoek, Marian van Schijndel, Dik Beker, Kees Peek en Ruud van de Wijngaart February 28, 2003 Copenhagen. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Future methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture Reference projection 2010
Future methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture
Reference projection 2010
Martha M. van Eerdt
RIVM Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
In coöperation with Klaas van der Hoek, Marian van Schijndel, Dik Beker, Kees Peek en Ruud van de Wijngaart
February 28, 2003 Copenhagen
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Contents
• Objectives• Method• Historical analysis• Policy analysis• Choice of key assumptions• Future emissions• Uncertainties• Concusions
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Projection objectives
• Make most likely projection of developments in livestock numbers, fertilising regime and GHG emissions until 2010
• Extra- Include implemented and adopted measures- Pay ample attention to sensitivity of results to
uncertain developments
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Reference projectionMethod: description of the procedures
• Analyses of key sources in the past • Identification of key uncertainties• Analysis of policies and economic development• Choice of key assumptions• Simulation of livestock development and fertilising regime• Calculation of future emissions• Key uncertainties• Several reviews and iterations
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
National emissions (43 Mton CO2-eq) and share of agriculture, 2000
CH4 N2O Other sectors
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Key sources from agriculture, 2000
42%
10%
37%
10% 1%
Entericfermentation (CH4)
Manuremanagement (CH4)
Direct emissionsfrom soils (N2O)
Indirect emissionsfrom soils (N2O)
Other
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Historical trend
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mto
n CO
2-eq
.
CH4
N2O
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Policy instruments and economic development
National policies on manure• manure transfer contract system• MINeral Accounting System• Buying up of rights to produce
EU policy on milk quota
Economic development• dairy farming most competitive
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Choice of key assumptions
• Base year: 1997/2000• Nitrogen manure standards:
- grassland: 250 kg N per hectare- arable land: 170 kg N per hectare
• Willingness of arable farmers to accept manure
• Export and manure treatment: 25 Kton N• Increase milk quota: 0,6% after 2006• Increase milk productivity: 1,3% per year
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Development livestock numbers
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
num
ber o
f ani
mal
s
cattle x 1000
pigs x 1000
poultry x 10000
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Projection of the fertilising regime
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Kto
n ni
trog
en
Animal manure Chemical fertiliser
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Future emissions
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mto
n CO
2-eq
.
CH4
N2O
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
UncertaintiesHigh reference projection
Projection of activities• +14% CH4, ca 1% N2O
- ammonia abatement, manure treatment- no rights to produce- no milk quota
Emission factors
• ?
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
UncertaintiesLow reference projection
Projection of activities• -9% CH4, - 10% N2O
- no derogation- no EU premia for beef cattle
Emission factors
• ?
Martha M. van EerdtCH4 and N2O projection 2010
Concusions
• Manure policy reduces emission of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture
• Uncertainties due to policy changes are greater than uncertainties due to economic developments
• Include reviews in projections
