Future Grid Forum
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Transcript of Future Grid Forum
Future Grid Forum
CSIRO Energy Flagship
Mark Paterson
ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME ENERGY FLAGSHIP
An unprecedented transformation...
“The world’s electricity network will change more in the next 20-years
than it has in the last 100”
IBM Energy & Utilities, ‘Smart Infrastructure – Building the Intelligent Grid of Tomorrow’, Enercom Conference (March 2009).
Australia's Electricity Futures (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Social Licence
Enabling Technology
Regulation Economics
New
Business Models
Electricity Ecosystem
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Australia’s Future Grid Forum
Industry-led
Whole-of-system
Long-term orientation to 2050
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Participants
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Generators
TNSPs
DNSPs
Government & Regulators
Energy Retailers
End-users, NGOs & Others
Suppliers / Business
ACOSS AMIRA CEC CEFC EEC Grattan Institute Smart Grid Aust The Climate Institute Total Environment Ctr University of Sydney
Stanwell Corporation Hydro Tasmania ESAA
GE Alstom AmpControl Ernst & Young Landis+Gyr Siemens Stockland
DRET AER
AEMC AEMO
ARENA BREE
State Govt: Qld, SA & Vic Aust Local Govt Assoc
Grid Australia: Electranet SP Ausnet Powerlink Transend Transgrid Western Power
Ausgrid Aurora Energy Citipower Energex Ergon Energy SA Power Ntwks Western Power
ERAA AGL Origin Energy
Four 2050 scenarios
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Set and forget Leaving the grid
Rise of the ‘Prosumer’ Renewables thrive
Scenario 1: Set and forget
• Closest to a linear path of evolution from the present
• Generation:
o 30% from renewable sources
o 19% from distributed sources
• Modest uptake of energy storage and electric vehicles
• Widespread adoption of ‘set and forget’ demand management solutions offered by networks
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Scenario 2: Rise of the prosumer
• Extensive transition to distributed energy networks
• Generation:
o 41% from renewable sources
o 46% from distributed sources
• Modest uptake of energy storage and electric vehicles
• Majority see value proposition of remaining grid-connected
• Networks now ‘transact’ electrons between thousands of sites
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Scenario 3: Leaving the grid
• Extensive transition toward user autonomy underpinned by distributed generation and storage
• Generation:
o 64% from renewable sources
o 31% from distributed sources
• Moderate uptake of electric vehicles
• ~30% are not convinced of grid value proposition and have entirely disconnected by 2050
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Scenario 4: Renewables thrive
• Extensive transition to centralised renewables
• Generation:
o 86% from renewable sources
o 26% from distributed sources
• Centralised generation primarily from renewable sources + large-scale storage
• System is supported by extensive uptake of electric vehicles and modest uptake of DG and DS
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Projected on-site generation share
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Grid-supplied electricity consumption
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Projected network utilisation
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
2015-25 Decade of Transition
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Seven observations about nature of this profound transition...
1. Network-centric → Customer-centric
2. Centralised → Decentralised/Hybrid
3. Fossil fuel generation → Continuous decarbonisation
4. Regulated natural monopoly → Increasing exposure to competition
5. 20 – 50% of electricity generated locally by 2050
6. Grid continues to play a critical (but evolved) role in 2050
7. Current decision-making processes risk being outpaced in the 2015-25 decade en route to 2050
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Eight ‘must haves’...
1. Treat the community as adults and partners on a journey to a new place
2. New models for accelerated decision-making and industry adaptation
3. New tools for network forecasting in a highly-distributed future
4. Ubiquitous ‘taming’ of peak demand spikes is critical for network optimisation
5. Cost-reflective pricing of electricity + enabling technologies ( ‘transactive’ network)
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
Eight ‘must haves’...
6. National review of the social safety net parallel to tariff reforms
7. ‘Re-invention’ of NSP business models – need to decide what you are going to be!
8. Further regulatory reform where necessary to enable new NSP business models
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
The Future Grid
Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)
CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Mark Paterson Energy Flagship
t 0459 841 006 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au/energy
ENERGY TRANSFORMED FLAGSHIP
Thank you