Future Energy Scenarios - National Grid plc · An uncertain energy future Now? 2020? 2030? 2040...
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Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Future Energy Scenarios Gary Dolphin - Energy Forecasting Specialist Electricity Operational Forum – October 2012
Transcript of Future Energy Scenarios - National Grid plc · An uncertain energy future Now? 2020? 2030? 2040...
Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.
Future Energy Scenarios
Gary Dolphin - Energy Forecasting SpecialistElectricity Operational Forum – October 2012
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UK Future Energy Scenarios
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BackgroundThe Climate Change Act 200834% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, and 80% reduction by 2050
2009 Renewable Energy Directive15% of all energy from renewable sources by 2020
Government PolicyEMR, RHI, Green Deal, ECO, FiTs, CERT, CRC
Economic BackgroundDemographics, GDP, manufacturing output, fuel prices
HeatHeat pumps, energy efficiency improvements
Electricity EfficiencyLighting, appliances, smart meters
TransportElectric vehicles, alternative fuels
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An uncertain energy future
? ?Now ?2020 2030 2040 2050
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An uncertain energy future
Now
Accelerated Growth
Gone Green
Slow Progression
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Now 2030 2040 2050
Demand & network capacity
Technology uncertainty
Consumer energy behaviour
Gone Green
Generation
2020
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Our scenariosSlow Progression
Government climate targets missed / abandonedContinued economic hardship, low GDP growthLimited energy efficiency / Green Deal impactDomestic gas demand broadly flat, higher in power generation
Overview Main changes vs 2011Electricity demand
Nuclear generation
Renewable generation
Interconnection
Thermal generation
Heat pump deployment
Electric vehicle deployment
Targets performance
2020
2030 carbon
2050 carbon
renewable
carbon
2020 targets
2011 scenario outcome 2012 scenario outcome
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Our scenariosGone Green
Government climate targets met, balanced approachModest GDP growth in medium term at historic averagesEnergy efficiency is driven / Green Deal is effectiveGradual decline in gas demand
Overview Main changes vs 2011Electricity demand
Nuclear generation
Renewable generation
Interconnection
Thermal generation
Heat pump deployment
Electric vehicle deployment
=Targets performance
2020
2030 carbon
2050 carbon
renewable
carbon
2020 targets
2011 scenario outcome 2012 scenario outcome
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Our scenariosAccelerated Growth
Government climate targets met earlySustained economic growth in medium to long termSignificant energy efficiencySignificant reduction in gas demand
Overview Main changes vs 2011Electricity demand
Nuclear generation
Renewable generation
Interconnection
Thermal generation
Heat pump deployment
Electric vehicle deployment
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Targets performance
2020
2030 carbon
2050 carbon
renewable
carbon
2020 targets
2011 scenario outcome 2012 scenario outcome
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Transport
Electric vehicles (million)
Modest EV growthMore hybrids in early years, more pure EVs in later years
Slow Progression
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
GG: 3.2m
AG: 7.1m
SP: 0.7m
Strong EV growthMore hybrids in early years, more pure EVs in later years
Gone Green
Robust EV growthMore hybrids in early years, more pure EVs in later years
Accelerated Growth
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Heat
Residential heat pumps (million)
Modest heat pump growthLimited insulation uptake
Slow Progression
GG: 8.8m
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4
6
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2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
AG: 12.8m
SP: 0.7m
Strong heat pump growthStrong insulation uptake
Gone Green
Robust heat pump growthHigh insulation uptake
Accelerated Growth
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Electricity demand
Annual electricity demand (TWh)
Annual demand broadly flatPeak demand flat / falling
Slow Progression
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Economic growth, heat & transport electrificationPeak demand grows steadily
Gone Green
Reflects greater economic growth and electrification of heat & transport
Accelerated Growth
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Electricity generation
050
100150200250300350400450
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Nuclear CCS Coal CCS Gas
Wind Marine / Solar PV Hydro / Pumped Storage
Biomass Imports Gas / CHP
Coal Oil / Other Carbon Intensity g CO2/kWh
Power generation (TWh) &carbon intensity (gC02/kWh)Gone Green:
Extension of existing plant; new gas generationSlower low CO2 deployment
Slow Progression
Balanced approachContributions from different technologies
Gone Green
Faster low CO2 deploymentStrong micro generation deployment
Accelerated Growth
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Slow |ProgressionSlow Progression - generation capacity
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60
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100
120
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160
180
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
GW
(Ins
talle
d C
apac
ity)
Nuclear CoalGas / CHP Offshore WindOnshore Wind Other Renew able (Marine/Hydro/Biomass/Solar PV)Interconnector Other (Oil/Pumped Storage)Transmission Demand (Peak Day)
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Gone Green – generation capacity
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
GW
(Ins
talle
d C
apac
ity)
Nuclear CoalGas / CHP Offshore WindOnshore Wind Other Renew able (Marine/Hydro/Biomass/Solar PV)Interconnector Other (Oil/Pumped Storage)Transmission Demand (Peak Day)
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Accelerated Growth – generation capacity
0
20
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80
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160
180
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
GW
(Ins
talle
d C
apac
ity)
Nuclear CoalGas / CHP Offshore WindOnshore Wind Other Renew able (Marine/Hydro/Biomass/Solar PV)Interconnector Other (Oil/Pumped Storage)Transmission Demand (Peak Day)
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The future: efficiency, decarbonisationand electrification
new homes & retrofit
Heat pump
Decarbonised electricity…and decarbonisetransport
TransportElectricity Heat
Efficiency and innovationInsulate and reduceSmart Meters &
Appliance efficiency
De-carbonise heat
Biomethane
CNG
Gas backup& embeddedgeneration
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