Future demands on the local state

Johnny Kelleher

Tavistock Institute, London

The DCLG project

“A review of what society is likely to

be like in 2015 and its implications

for local government and local

governance.”

Future demands

• Drivers of change and pressures on government

• Society in 2015: the building blocks

• The key functions of local governance in 2015

• Some personal reflections drawing on the project

Major drivers of change• Globalisation creates greater competition• Knowledge and service sectors dominate• More & more varied households • Diverging educational attainment • Extreme weather events • Pressures on land use• Demand for ‘clean solutions’ • More elderly and disabled• Greater difference within and between areas • Rising expectations of quality of life • All pervasive ICT• Conflict around service, privacy and security • New forms of politics

Pressures on Government

fiscal & taxation; education & skills; employment & productivity; environment & habitat; health, public health & social services; housing & land use; leisure culture & media; localities and neighbourhoods; public order, justice and security; social protection & benefits; trade & industry; transport & travel;

Society in 2015

Pulling together all the views we have collected, we have identified 4 building blocks of society in 2015:• More households and more varied types of household;• A more diverse society with, for example, more elderly

and more disabled people, wider differences in wealth and ethnic divides;

• Continued technological development and global change [with a particular impact on those with poor educational attainment];

• More “extreme” weather and growing environmental pressures.

More households and more varied types of household

UK households

Household types and size, England

Source: ONS

Population by age

A more diverse society with, for example, more elderly and more disabled people, wider

differences in household wealth and ethnic divides;

Households by religious affiliation

Source: ODPM

Quality of life by region

Source: DEFRA

The Variation in Quality of Life FactorsAcross the English Regions

Continued technological development and global

economic change

Economically active by qualification level

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1991 1999 2005 2010

year

econ

omic

ally

act

ive

popu

lati

on (

000s

)

Levels 4 & 5

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

No qual

Economically Active Population

Western markets less significant in 2015

China 1

India 2

USA 3

Indonesia 4

Pakistan 5

Japan 10

Germany 17

France 23

UK 24

Italy 25

127 8 9 10 1160 1 2 3 4 5

Hundreds of Millions

13 14 15

1409.1 M

1211.7 M

310.8 M

251.8 M

224.5 M

125.8 M

82.1 M

60.2 M

59.0 M

54.6 M

Population 2015, Ranked

In 2015 the EU, USA and Japan combined will equalless than half the Chinese population

Source: UN, Economist

More extreme weather and growing environmental

pressures

WasteWaste Arisings and Management

Source: DEFRA and others

Temperatures

Change in summer temperature for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for low emissions and high

emissions scenarios

Source: UK Climate Impacts Programme

Functions of local governance

Five core tasks:• Coping with stark differences within

and between communities (taking choices about how to respond to the differences within and between communities);

• Caring for a significant proportion of the population (for example older people and those with who do not have the skills to prosper in the changing economy);

Functions of local governance

• Controlling and regulating human and physical flows (from ASBOs to traffic, from access to town centres to drink and entertainment licensing);

• Promoting economic growth and performance (including making a reality of lifelong learning in areas sufferent from economic collapse);

• Strategic marketing (in many areas action by individuals will be as important as action by the state – eg waste recycling).

Functions of local governance

These all reinforce the need for “joined up

government” and led to two further tasks for

local governance:

• Brokering, marshalling and relationship building between key actors;

• Planning and mobilising local resources.

Functions of local governance

Community leadership crucial to:• Build acceptance of difference and responses to

it;• Secure ownership of regulation;• Achieve changes in behaviour.

It hinges on two further tasks:• Providing and making complex information

transparent and accessible• Representation of the locality and community

Reflections

Scale:

• The importance of the conurbation/sub-region;

• Need to ensure that neighbourhood structures don’t entrench inequalities;

• The will always be difficult boundaries; no single arrangement will suit everyone: the challenge is how to manage boundaries.

Reflections

The key question:“Given the trends we have identified, and in particular the development of more acute differences within and between communities, which approach is most likely to ensure that the different needs of different groups are met – a strong focus on national minimum standards, or more scope for local decision-making to respond to the different needs of different groups?”

Reflections

“It’s not what you do it’s the way you do it”

High quality local political leadership key to:• Securing legitimacy for difficult decisions;• Promoting changes in behaviour;• Co-ordinating local players and resources.

Need a more coherent framework for allocating responsibility for the key locally delivered public services

Reflections

• Joined up government will become more rather than less important over the next ten years;

• To meet the challenges that society is likely to face greater citizen engagement with the structures of local governance will be essential, not simply desirable;

• Importance of strategic choice within government.

Some implications for C&Y

• Skills and education

• Well being (including health)

• Rights and diversity

• Social regulation