Future Airport STratégies - Eurocontrol · 02/12/2009 FAST Future Airport STratégies INO WORKSHOP...
Transcript of Future Airport STratégies - Eurocontrol · 02/12/2009 FAST Future Airport STratégies INO WORKSHOP...
02/12/2009
FAST
Future Airport STratégies
INO WORKSHOPBretigny, 1st December 2009
Contact: Isabelle laplace M3 SYSTEMS, laplace@m3syst ems.net
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ContextSTATFOR Medium-Term Forecasts
+22% flights in Europe by 2015 on existing routes
Future routes Additional traffic
BUT
Impacts on ATM
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Context
Ryanair network
1999
Ryanair network
2005
Source Low-Cost Carriers- Europe
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Airport growing role
Low-cost airlines Strong development
Airport status Evolution toward
privatisation, devolution
Objective:
Profit maximization
Necessity to develop
new strategies
Impactson the
route network
Important role of airport strategies for network development
What are airports strategic options for the future?Which impacts of these strategies on route
network, on ATM?
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Project aims
FAST Project objectives
Developing an innovative method to•Identify airports strategic options
•Analyse the impacts of these strategies on route network
•Identify basic influence (possibly consequences) on the airport air traffic management
Applying this method to airport case studies
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FAST project
FAST Project
FAST project was launched in January 2008 and ended in March 2009.Funded by Eurocontrol in the scope of CARE INO projectPartners:
•M3 Systems: project leader•Aviation Economics and Econometric Lab of ENAC
•University of Zilina
Illustration of the methodology on airport case with elements available during the project period.Since then recent events tend to validate the result s obtained …
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Strategies
Airport strategies of development
•Two categories of strategies:
–Strategy of specialization–Strategy of diversification
Aeronauticalactivities on the airport
Non-aeronauticalactivities
Core business of airports
Non corebusiness
of airports
Strategies of specialisation
Strategies of diversification
Aeronautical relatedactivities on other
airports
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Specialization
Strategies of specialization
•Investing in capacity : pax/freight terminal, runway
•Improving the airport accessibility : bus shuttles, etc.
•Developing commercial policies to airlines
•Investing in a low-cost terminal
•Investing in terminal infrastructure to improve aeronautical services efficiency (e.g. luggage transfer, pax flows, etc.)
•Investing in communication and marketing
•Developing intermodality with an high-speed rail interconnection
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Diversification
Strategies of diversification
•Developing commercial activities at the airport i.e. developing commercial areas
•Developing services to pax to secure their loyalty
•Investing in other economic sectors (e.g. Investment of Aéroport de Paris in Hub Telecom)
•Developing consultancy services
•Investing in another airport
•Managing other airports
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Question
Question
How to identify the most relevant strategic options of an airport according to its type ?
1. Defining an adequate typology of airport
2. Using this typology to make a first identification of the strategic options
3. Refining these strategic options with other factor s (congestion level, competition level, regulation type, airport status
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Question
Question
How to identify the most relevant strategic options of an airport according to its type ?
1. Defining an adequate typology of airport
2. Using this typology to make a first identification of the strategic options
3. Refining these strategic options with other factor s (congestion level, competition level, regulation type, airport status)
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Typology
Airport typology Based on three scales:
•Size
•Potential for growth in capacity•Potential for growth in demand
Both levels of potential for growth scales are broken down in low, medium and high potential levels
The size scale is broken down in:•Small (<5 million pax a year)•Medium sized (between 5 and 10 million pax a year)•Large (>10 million pax a year)
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Typology
CAPACITY Potential for growth
HIGH MEDIUM LOW
HIGH
MEDIUM
DEMAND
LOW
Prague
Marseille
Paris Orly
Paris CDG
Vienna Lyon
Geneva
Toulouse Faro
Southampton
Bordeaux
Bratislava
Kosice
Brno
Graz
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Question
Question
How to identify the most relevant strategic options of an airport according to its type ?
1. Defining an adequate typology of airport
2. Using this typology to make a first identification of the strategic options
3. Refining these strategic options with other factor s (congestion level, competition level, regulation type, airport status)
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Specialization by airport type
POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH
CAPACITY
HIGH MEDIUM LOW
DEMAND
HIGH
- Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines- Communication and marketing- Terminal capacity - Low-cost terminal- Runway capacity- Infrastructure efficiency (only for large airports)- Intermodality(only for large airports)
- Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines - Communication and marketing- Terminal capacity- Low-cost terminal
- Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines
MEDIUM
- Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines- Communication and marketing- Terminal capacity- Low-cost terminal- Runway capacity
LOW
-Accessibility - Commercial policies to airlines-Communication and marketing
Bordeaux :Small airport
Available capacityStrong competition with HST in the
futurePartial devolution without privatization
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Diversification by airport type
Strategies of diversificationPotentially relevant for all airport types whatever the potential for growth����more or less relevant according to the airport size(linked to the airport financial resources)
Commercial activity
Services to pax
Small and Medium sized airports
Investments in othereconomic sectors
Consultancy services
Investments in other airports
Large airports
Bordeaux
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First identified strategies
First identification of strategies for Bordeaux airport
Strategies of specialisation:• Accessibility • Commercial policies to airlines • Communication and marketing• Terminal capacity increase• Low-cost terminal• Runway capacity increase
Strategies of diversification:• Commercial activity development• Services to passengers
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Question
Question
How to identify the most relevant strategic options of an airport according to its type ?
1. Defining an adequate typology of airport
2. Using this typology to make a first identification of the strategic options
3. Refining these strategic options with other factor s (congestion level, competition level, regulation type, airport status)
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Refinement
- Competition +Accessibility
Capacity
Accessibility
Capacity
Low-cost terminal
Commercial policies
Communication
Bordeaux: strongcompetition
with HST
- +
Commercial activitiesServices to pax
Consultancy servicesInvestments in other
airportsInvestments in other
economic sectors
Private
ownership
and/or management
Commercial activities
Services to pax
Bordeaux: publicly owned and managed
Confirmation of the relevancy of the first identifi ed strategic options
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Bordeaux strategies
Future strategic options of Bordeaux airport
• Time scale: Up to 5 - 8 years• Objectives:
– Secure the loyalty of passengers and of airlines– Attract additional low-cost airlines on the platform
• Strategy oriented toward the quality of service :– Higher quality of service in traditional terminals with
development of services to passengers– Lower quality of service in the low-cost terminal
• Development of commercial policies to airlines (e.g. reduced fees on traffic volume or peak load pricing to increase the traffic at off-peak hours)
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CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES
What is the impact of these strategicoptions on airport route network?
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Impacts on route network
Method of identification of the impacts of strategies on route networks
1. Identify strategic options of airport A
2. Identify airport B which already developed similar strategic options in the past
3. Analyse impacts of these past strategies on the route network of airport B
4. Make assumptions on the potential changes in the route network of airport A
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Illustration
Similarities between Marseille past strategy and Bordeaux future strategy
• Constraints: competition with High-Speed Train (TGV Bordeaux-Paris = 3 hours today, 2 hours in 2016)
• Objectives:– Securing the loyalty of passengers and of airlines– Attracting additional low-cost airlines on the platform
• Strategies:– Differentiation in service quality via investments in a low-
cost terminal– Development of commercial policies to airlines (e.g.
reduced fees on traffic volume or peak load pricing to increase the traffic at off-peak hours)
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Marseille route network
Routes opened by Low-Cost carriers between 2003 and 20 07
Routes opened by Full-Service carriers between 2003 a nd 2007
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Marseille route network
Other impacts on the Marseille route network
• Strong traffic development on 8 existing European routes:– traffic <5 000 pax a year in 2003 and >10 000 pax a year in
2007– 6 routes to Northern Europe , 2 routes to Southern Europe
• Low transfer from non scheduled to scheduled traffic: – 2 routes becomes mainly scheduled– 3 routes remain mainly non scheduled with an increase in the
scheduled traffic
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Bordeauxroute network?
Potential changes in the Bordeaux route network
• Existing route network
World regionsNumber of routes from Bordeaux in
2007Canada 1
Northwestern Africa 4West Africa 6
Southern Europe 35Northern Europe 14
Total 46Opportunities to develop additional
routes?
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Bordeauxroute network?
Potential changes in the Bordeaux route network• Additional routes to northern Europe may develop in th e
future to:– Germany– Sweden– Norway– Belgium– Netherlands
• Strong traffic increase on routes with a current low traffic level:– Dusseldorf, Stockholm, Roma
• Some existing non scheduled routes may also become scheduled:– Marrakech, Djerba, Monastir, Heraklion
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CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES
What is the impact of these strategicoptions on airport ATM?
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Impacts on ATM
Impacts of new route network on ATM?
• Would need a specific study
• In FAST only preliminary identification
• Predictions of interviewed experts (from France (DGAC), Slovakia and Czech Republic):
“LCCs traffic on new transverse routes may not be the highest generator of ATFM delays”
“New transverse routes may increase the complexity of the en-route air traffic management”
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Impacts on ATM
“Transverse routes may not be the highest generator of ATFM delays”
• First reason :Medium-sized and small airports are not the main generator of ATFM delays at a European level (less frequent delayed flights)
• Second reason :Lower increase in ATFMdelays at non-hub airports
ATM minutes of delay for Clermond Ferrand and Beauvais airports in 2007
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
Clermont Ferrand (Hub) Beauvais (Non-Hub)
Tot
al n
umbe
r of
200
7 de
partu
re
fligh
ts
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
Tot
al A
TM
del
ay fo
r de
partu
re fl
ight
s in
200
7
Departure flights in 2007 Total yearly ATM delay in 2007 (in minutes)
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Impacts on ATM
“Transverse routes may not be the highest generator of ATFM delays”
• Third reason :Additional flights mostly operated at non-peak hours
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Num
ber o
f flig
hts
06:00-07:00
08:00-09:00
10:00-11:00
12:00-13:00
14:00-15:00
16:00-17:00
18:00-19:00
20:00-21:00
Time
Departure flights distribution over the day at Lyon airport
(Date: 23 january 2009)
Air France LCCs Other FSCs
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Impacts on ATM
“New transverse routes may increase the complexity of the en-route air traffic management”
• Observation of the potential crossing of areas with dense traffic that the potential new routes at the analyzed airport may generate– increase in existing traffic flows at intersections in areas with
dense traffic volume could be an increase in the complexity of air traffic management
– complexity increase may however be mitigated by flights operated at non-peak hours and by the flight frequencies on these new destinations
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Impacts on ATM
Potential impacts of the future Bordeaux network
new destinations to Northern European destinations would
cross areas with a dense traffic volume
Impacts :– increase in the
volume of traffic in these dense areas
– and/or the increase in the number of intersections with existing traffic flows.
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Conclusion
Conclusion on the FAST project
FAST is an innovative methodology – applicable to any airport case study– complementary to forecasts dealing with traffic inc rease
on existing routes
Potential changes in airport route network identified thanks to changes in airport strategies
Results for Bordeaux validated by the recent strategic changes of Bordeaux airport (June 2009):– Orientation toward the quality of service : Bulding of a
low-cost terminal (operational in May 2010)– Announced objectives:
� Secure the loyalty of passengers and of airlines� Attract additional low-cost airlines on the platform
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Conclusion
Conclusion on the FAST project
Methodology only applied to a few airports in the study but could be applied and extended to :
– all airport types including new European member sta tes
– airports with overlapping catchment areas
– competing hub – airports,
– complementary airports in case of multi-airport
– management or in case of hub and secondary airports