Future agriculture and future challenges by Dr. Camilla Eriksson (SLU)
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Camilla Eriksson Ph.D. in Rural Development Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SLU Department of Urban and Rural Development [email protected] Future agriculture and future challenges Future Agriculture project: The transition of Swedish agriculture 1990-2040
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Presented as part of the "World Food Day 2014: A Spotlight on the Value of Youth in Family Farming" Event. Swedish FAO committee invites you to celebrate World Food Day with a seminar focusing on youth and family farming. The seminar aims to raise the profile of family farming and to highlight its social, economic, environmental and cultural values specifically with regard to youth. http://www.siani.se/event/WFD2014 http://www.siani.se/event/WFD2014
Transcript of Future agriculture and future challenges by Dr. Camilla Eriksson (SLU)
Camilla ErikssonPh.D. in Rural DevelopmentSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SLUDepartment of Urban and Rural [email protected]/sol | www.slu.se/urd
Future agriculture and future challenges
Future Agriculture project: The transition of Swedish agriculture 1990-2040
What is a family farm today?
”No, no, that [family farming] doesn’t exist. Now it’s all business-like, all of it”.
- Otto, 35-year old grain farmer in Uppland
”I told my accountant in 1990 that if it weren’t for the boy’s wish to take over the farm, I would quit at once.”
- Valdemar, 70 year old retired farmer in Uppland
What is a family farm today?Family labour
Family headLocal market
Small scalePluriactivity
MultifunctionalityTraditional
Tacit knowledge”terroir”, place
Organic, low-techRural
Hired labourEntrepreneurWorld marketLarge scaleSpecialisationMonocultureModernFormal knowledge”space”, universalBiotechnology, high-techUrban
JOINED THE EU IN 1995
o MacSharry reform 1992: less market interventions, introduction of environmental targets
o Agenda 2000, Rural Development Program with Agri-Environmental Payments
o Single Farm Payments 2003
DEREGULATION IN 1990
o No market intervention or subsidies
o Temporary transition measures was supposed to be phased out by June 1996
o Subsidies given to farmers who voluntarily decreased production through turning arable land into e.g. forest or wetlands (Omställning -90)
Agricultural policies since 1990
OUTCOME OF CHANGE
o The number of farm enterprises has decreased from around 100 000 to 67 000
o About 10% of the enterprises cultivates 50% of the land
o In 1990 there were 25 921 dairy farmers in Sweden, by 2013 more than 4 out of 5 had abandoned farming, leaving 4 668 dairy farmers. The total number of cows has only dropped by 40% from around 575 000 to 345 000.
Structural change since 1990
LIVELIHOOD ASPECTS
“a farm giving full employment and a decent income to a farmer and his family should have an acreage of at least 15 to 20 hectares of arable land”
Nannesson, 1939
“Well, you need at least 500 hectares to earn a livelihood today”
- Grain farmer, 2014
“I think I can make it with 70 cows, but I keep being told that’s too few”
- Dairy farmer, 2014
Structural change since 1990
OUTCOME OF CHANGE
o The number of farm enterprises has decreased from around 100 000 to 67 000
o About 10% of the enterprises cultivates 50% of the land
o In 1990 there were 25 921 dairy farmers in Sweden, by 2013 more than 4 out of 5 had abandoned farming, leaving 4 668 dairy farmers. The total number of cows has only dropped by 40% from around 575 000 to 345 000.
Precision farming: GPS combiners and drones
Automatic Milking Systems (AMS): ”Liberation” of
dairy farmers
Learning new skills: Farmers engage in global trade
Future challenges Economic sustainability
Supermarket in Vişeu de jos, Maramureş, March 2009Summer farm outside Botiza, Maramureş June 2010
Future challenges: Social sustainability
“I mean, one needs to pass the farm on to a new generation and it is difficult to know how much to invest depending on if someone is taking over. Because, even if Joel is interested then he needs to find someone who is willing to share this with him as well. Someone who knows what it is all about. We watch “Farmer Wants a Wife” and laughs a lot, I mean, they have absolutely no clue. And Joel always says “I will never find a woman [fruntimmer] like you, Mom”.
- Britta, mixed farm 45 km outside Uppsala
Future challengesfood security
o Global trade both increases and decreases food security at national level
o In Sweden almost half of the food we eat is imported, and our farmers rely on import of fuel, fodder and seed for sowing. Global trade enables Swedish food security
o Relying on global trade for food security makes Sweden vulnerable, which decreases potential food security in a scenario of crisis (due to disruptions in distribution caused by e.g. major natural hazards, political unrest, pandemia or technological collapse)
Future challengesclimate change
o The Swedish Board of Agriculture estimates that the positive and negative consequences of increasing global mean temperatures will cancel each other out for Swedish food production. However, in most parts of the world, the impacts of climate change are considered negative for food production.
Future challengesclimate change
o The Swedish Board of Agriculture estimates that the positive and negative consequences of increasing global mean temperatures will cancel each other out for Swedish food production. However, in most parts of the world, the impacts of climate change are considered negative for food production.
o In Sweden almost half of the food we eat is imported, and our farmers rely on import of fuel, fodder and seed for sowing. Global trade enables Swedish food security
o Is it a responsible food strategy for a wealthy nation like Sweden to be dependent on food being produced elsewhere? Should we not be prepared to help others instead, if the future conditions in Sweden will be better than elsewhere?
OUTCOME OF CHANGE
o the number of farm enterprises has decreased from around 100 000 to 67 000
o About 10% of the enterprises cultivates 50% of the land
o In 1990 there were 25 921 dairy farmers in Sweden, by 2013 more than 4 out of 5 had abandoned farming, leaving 4 668 dairy farmers.
Structural change since 1990
NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND SKILLS
o Precision farming: GPS combiners
o Farmers engage in global trade, such as grains
o Automatic Milking Systems (AMS)
Camilla ErikssonPh.D. in Rural DevelopmentSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesDepartment of Urban and Rural [email protected]/sol | www.slu.se/urd
Heldagskonferens i Uppsala den 23 oktoberanmälan till [email protected]
Heldagskonferens i Uppsala den 23 oktoberanmälan till [email protected]
