Fusion Chartbook for August 12 2013
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Transcript of Fusion Chartbook for August 12 2013
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7/27/2019 Fusion Chartbook for August 12 2013
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Fusion Chartbook - 8/12/2013
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Stock Valuations
Stock valuations by nearly every measure are still @ fair value.
Source: Big Picture/Merrill Lynch Quant Group
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AAII Asset Allocation Survey (Equities) - Deviation from mean
Excessive over allocation
Slight over allocation
Investor allocations to stocks
are only slightly above their 27
Year mean of 60 % and rising,
suggesting rotations into
equities are taking place. This
could drive stocks higher in int.-
term.
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-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1.30%
-0.20%
1.20%
1.40%
0.40%
0.10%
0.80%
0%
-0.50%
0.90%1.00%
1.90%
S&P 500 Seasonality Avg. Monthly Performance Since 1942
August & September 2 worst months
from a seasonality perspective.
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LEI MOM Change with 4 Week Moving Average
19902000/2001
2008
LEI still above bull bear divider line or 0 to -0.5.
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University of Michigan Consumer Confidence
Confidence @ highest level since 2008.
Good for consumer spending
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NASDAQ Composite -Monthly Chart
Keeping it in perspective, even if we had
some corrective wave, NASDAQ still in a
bull channel with a 4,000 upper target.
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Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index vs. European Financial Conditions Index
U.S.
Europe
Financial conditions in U.S. & Europe both
above 0 line. Of late however there is a
divergence between U.S. and Europe,
which probably helps U.S. fund flows.
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10 Year Treasury Yield
10 year yields back to testing a key down
trend level. A break above this level by
bonds could cause some tension in equity
markets.
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National Avg. Unleaded Gas Prices vs. S&P 500
$ 4.00 - 3.80 gas has caused problems for the
S&P 500, thus, we continue to watch gas closely
here as a break back up into that range would be
a negative. Conversely, gas turning lower here
could be a benefit for the consumer.
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S&P 500 vs. Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)
Growing divergence between S&P 500 and
Emerging markets most likely helping fund flows
to U.S. However if emerging markets keep
slipping it could weigh on all global markets.