Funding Universal Access through a “Global Health Charge” on alcohol and tobacco: feasibility in the 20 countries with

the largest HIV epidemics

Dr Andrew Hill, Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Liverpool University, UKDr Will Sawyer, MetaVirology Ltd, London, UK

World AIDS Conference, Washington, USA, July 2012 [Abstract MOAE0306]

Thanks to:

Joep Lange University of Amsterdam

Elly Katabira International AIDS Society, Kampala

Ceppy Merry Infectious Diseases Institute, Kampala

Praphan Phanuphak Thai Red Cross AIDS Society, Bangkok

Marco Vittoria World Health Organization, Geneva

Dave Ripin Clinton Foundation

Andrew Levin Clinton Foundation

Chris Duncombe Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Nathan Ford Medecins Sans Frontieres, Geneva

Ben Plumley Pangaea AIDS Foundation

How do we pay for Universal access in the long-term?

8-10 million need treatment, but have no access

6.7 million treated

6.7 million treated patients covered by Global Fund / PEPFARand national / NGO support

There is some potential to expand numbers, using cost-savings.

16-18 million do not yet needtreatment:will needARVs in future

Source: WHO, UNICEF & UNAIDS (2011 Progress Report)

In future, 16-18 million more people will need treatment

Global Financial CrisisHow can we afford to treat 15-30 million people with HIV in the future?

Pressures on global funding for HIV, TB and malaria

1. PEPFAR funding slightly increased at $6.9 billion in 2012 – but this needs to treat an additional 2 million people. This money also needs to cover HIV prevention

2. Global Fund has suspended new funding applications until 2014

3. UNITAID raises $300 million per year by tax on airline travel.

4. Plans to raise money from financial transaction tax have not made progress.

Alcohol, tobacco, HIV/AIDS, malaria and TB as causes of death worldwide

UNAIDS Epidemiology Reports 2011, WHO smoking and alcohol statistics, UN population reports

Annual deaths in 2010, worldwide:

Alcohol abuse: 2.5 million could be prevented by cuttingTobacco: 6 million (->8 million) consumption

HIV/AIDS: 1.8 million could be prevented by betterTB: 1.1 million treatment and careMalaria: 0.7-1.1 million

Alcohol and tobacco are under-taxed in low and middle income countries; consumption is growing. Increasing tax on alcohol and tobacco is known to improve public health.

Taxes on tobacco and alcohol are low in many African countries

World Health Organization standard: taxes should be at least 70% of the retail price of a packet of cigarettes1

High income countries: 38/48 (79%) have a tax rate of at least 50%

Low-income countries: 11/36 (31%) have a tax rate of at least 50%

Packet of 20 cigarettes

in UK = 924 KSH ($11)Excise Tax + VAT = 737 KSH ($9) 80%

in Kenya2 = 90 KSH ($1)Excise Tax + VAT = 42 KSH ($0.5) 47%

Ref 1: WHO report on global tobacco epidemic 2011Ref 2: http://allafrica.com/stories/201106130136.html

Global Health Charge

Middle and low income countries introduce a small extra “Global Health Charge” on alcohol and tobacco:

1 US cent per 10mL unit of alcohol (2 KSH for one bottle of beer)

10 US cents (8 KSH) per packet of 20 cigarettes

Global Health Charge is collected by National Governments, from the main alcohol and tobacco suppliers, when supplies are sent out from their breweries and factories.

This money is collected and spent only at the National level, to fund access to HIV, TB and malaria treatment and care.

Money can be used in partnership with Global Fund, PEPFAR and NGOs to jointly fund treatment access programmes.

Global Health Charge – how would it work?

Global Health Charge: calculations by country

UNAIDS Epidemiology Reports 2011, WHO smoking and alcohol statistics, UN population reports

Take the 20 countries with the largest HIV epidemics

Annual alcohol and tobacco consumption: commercial (recorded) supplies

Adult population size

Number of patients who need antiretroviral treatment by country?

Cost of Universal Access calculated assuming 2011 costs of treatment, medical care and diagnostics ($861 per patient/year of treatment).

In each country, could the “Global Health Charge” fund Universal Access, and what money could be left over to pay for TB, Malaria and other health priorities?

Global Health Charge: calculations by country

UNAIDS Epidemiology Reports 2011, WHO smoking and alcohol statistics, UN population reports

Costs per person-year on antiretroviral treatment: $861

Antiretroviral treatment: $416 (73% 1st line, 20% 2nd line, 7% 3rd line)Including importation and transport / storage.

Diagnostics: $145 (2 x HIV RNA, 2 x CD4, 5% with genotype)

Medical care: $300

References: UNAIDS Epidemiology Reports 2011, WHO smoking and alcohol statistics, UN population reports

Annual charges and funds available in ten countries (1c / 10c rate):___________________________________________________________________________________

Country Patients needing Global health ARV access TB/malaria ARV access charges: value extra costs* funds

1c / 10c charge___________________________________________________________________________________

Nigeria 1,040,000 $ 1120 m $ 896 m $ 223 mUganda 281,000 $ 259 m $ 243 m $ 16 mBotswana 35,000 $ 10 m $ 8 m $ 2 mThailand 113,000 $ 446 m $ 97 m $ 348 mVietnam 47,000 $ 81 m $ 40 m $ 41 mIndia 825,000 $ 887 m $ 710 m $ 177 mBrazil 89,000 $ 1170 m $ 76 m $ 1,094 mRussia 250,000 $ 2165 m $ 216 m $ 1,949 m Ukraine 147,000 $ 634 m $ 126 m $ 507 mChina 184,000 $11,002 m $ 158 m $10,844 m___________________________________________________________________________________Total: All 3,011,000 eligible patients put on ARV treatment (total cost: $2.57 billion/year)Substantial additional funding available for HIV prevention, TB, Malaria___________________________________________________________________________________*assumes $861/year cost for treatment and care, per person-year

10 countries could afford 100% Universal Access to ARVs with “Global Health Charge”

Results – example of Kenya

Adult population size / HIV: 26 million adults1.5 to 1.6 million people HIV+, 430,000 people already on ARVs (2010

data)

Alcohol consumption per person-year: 1.6 litres recorded, 2.5 unrecorded

Tobacco consumption per person-year: 8.4 packs of 20 cigarettes

Annual revenue from Global Health Charge (1c / 10c): $63 million

Number of people needing antiretrovirals (2010): 277,000

Cost of Universal Access (100%): $239 million ($861 per patient)

Number of people who could be treated from GHC (1c / 10c): 73,000

Global Health Charge of 5c / unit alcohol and 25c / packet of cigarettes in Kenya would fund 100% Universal Access ($260 million / year revenue)

References: UNAIDS Epidemiology Reports 2011, WHO smoking and alcohol statistics, UN population reports

Annual charges and funds available in ten countries (1c alcohol / 10c tobacco rate):___________________________________________________________________________________

Country Patients needing Global health Extra patients Tax forARV access charges: value on ARV’s 100% UA

1c / 10c charge 1c / 10c charge ___________________________________________________________________________________

Cameroun 140,000 $ 74 m 86,000 2c / 10cCote d’Ivoire 125,000 $ 79 m 91,000 2c / 10c DR Congo 256,000 $ 121 m 140,000 2c / 10cTanzania 351,000 $ 154 m 179,000 2c / 15cSouth Africa 1,110,000 $ 323 m 375,000 3c / 25cKenya 277,000 $ 63 m 73,000 5c / 20cZambia 136,000 $ 24 m 28,000 5c / 25cZimbabwe 234,000 $ 39 m 45,000 5c / 25cMozambique 331,000 $ 41 m 48,000 10c / 30cMalawi 189,000 $ 14 m 16,000 14c / 50c___________________________________________________________________________________Total: 1.08/3.1million (35%) eligible patients put on ARV treatment (total cost: $931 million/year)___________________________________________________________________________________*assumes $861/year cost for treatment and care, per person-year

10 countries could help to pay for Universal Access with “Global Health Charge”

Limitations of the analysis

1. Calculations are based on average $861 cost per person-year for antiretroviral treatment, diagnostics and care.

Analyses could be re-run with lower costs.

2. Antiretroviral drugs need to be accessible at minimum prices (CHAI/MSF)

3. Analyses based on 2010 estimates of HIV prevalence – updating needed

4. Could increased taxation of alcohol and tobacco lead to cross-border smuggling and/or increased use of non-commercial supplies?

5. Enforcement of taxation is required, including small-scale suppliers and brewers.

6. Other “sin taxes” could be planned, to cover other public health priorities – e.g. vaccination, cardiovascular disease.

Conclusions

A “Global Health Charge” of US 1c per 10mL unit of alcohol and US 10c per packet of 20 cigarettes, collected and spent at the National level, could fund 100% Universal access to ARV treatment in 10 of the 20 countries with the largest HIV epidemics (3 million additional people on ARV treatment).

In these countries substantial additional funds would be available to treat malaria, TB and other health priorities.

In the other 10 countries, 1.1 million people could be put on ARV treatment with a 1c / 10c Global Health Charge. Higher charges could allow 100% Universal Access in these countries (e.g. 5c / 20c in Kenya).

Increased taxation could lower consumption of alcohol and tobacco, with associated public health benefits

Current sources of funding (Global Fund / PEPFAR) are still required to maintain existing 6.7 million patients on treatment.