Fundamental Analysis - Dukascopy
11
01/04/2016 Fundamental Analysis
Transcript of Fundamental Analysis - Dukascopy
01/04/2016
Fundamental Analysis
Friday, April 01, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events this week (March 28-April 1)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
12:30 pm USD Personal Spending MoM February 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
11:50 pm JPY Retail Sales YoY February 0.5% 1.6% -0.2%
TUESDAY
2:00 pm USD CB Consumer Confidence March 96.2 93.9 94.0
3:30 pm USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
WEDNESDAY
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI MoM March 0.8% 0.6% 0.4%
12:15 pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change March 200K 194K 214K
THURSDAY
12:00 am NZD ANZ Business Confidence March 3.2 7.1
07:00 am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
8:30 am GBP Current Account Quarter 4 -32.7B -21.8B -20.1B
12:30 pm CAD GDP MoM February 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%
12:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims March 26 276K 269K 265K
FRIDAY
1:00 am CNY Manufacturing PMI March 50.2 49.3 49.0
8:30 am GBP Manufacturing PMI March 51.3 50.8
12:30 pm USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM March 0.3% -0.1%
2:00 pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI March 50.8 49.5
Friday, April 01, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
New Zealand Earlier this month the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed the official cash rate to a record-low 2.25% as dairy prices were continuing to fall and it seemed longer for inflation to reach the central bank's 1-3% target range. Most economists expect the RBNZ to cut the interest rates once more this year, following up its surprise cut to a record-low 2.25% with another by June. However, ASB's economist team is now predicting two more OCR cuts this year, forecasting that the RBNZ will not meet its inflation target otherwise as the effect of the RBNZ's cut earlier this month has not been fully passed on to borrowers and the New Zealand Dollar has since appreciated. Euro zone German business confidence strengthened for the first time in four months, in a sign that domestic demand is shielding German companies from sluggish global growth. The Ifo institute's business climate index climbed to 106.7 in March, up from 105.7 in the preceding month. German businesses have increased their dependence on domestic demand as a China-driven downturn in emerging markets curtails exports. At the same time, the ZEW Center for European Research in Mannheim reported its index of investor expectations, which aims to predict economic developments in the coming six months, surged to 4.3 in March from 1 in the previous month. The gauge rebounded from a 16-month low after market turmoil calmed and the European Central Bank launched fresh monetary stimulus. Japan Japan's consumer inflation remained flat in the year to February as low energy costs and weak consumption restrained price growth, keeping the Bank of Japan under pressure to introduce additional stimulus even after easing policy less than two months ago. A separate BoJ index, which strips out the effects of energy and fresh food prices, showed consumer inflation at 1.1% in the year to February, unchanged from January. Core consumer prices in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide prices, recorded the biggest annual decline in nearly three years in March, suggesting that inflation will remain tepid amid weak demand as the world's third-largest economy stands on the edge of recession. The core CPI for the Tokyo metropolitan area slid 0.3% in March, after declining 0.1% in February. The data reinforces a dominant market opinion that the central bank will be forced to cut its inflation forecasts and push back the timing for reaching its 2% price target at a quarterly review of its projections next month.
Key highlights of the week ended March 25
EUR
“Looking ahead, euro-zone inflation is likely to remain close to zero in the next few months before edging higher in the second half of the year as negative energy effects finally fade” - Capital Economics
Friday, April 01, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
MAX 1.18 1.18 1.18
75% percentile 1.08 1.08 1.10
Median 1.05 1.05 1.05
25% percentile 1.03 1.01 1.02
MIN 0.99 0.95 0.95 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Euro zone inflation ticks up in March, but remains negative
High
Although inflation in the Euro zone rose in March, it remained in negative territory, underscoring the continued struggle faced by the ECB to boost inflation in the currency bloc closer to its medium-term target of just below 2%. Eurostat’s flash estimate showed annual inflation in the Euro zone was minus 0.1% in March after negative 0.2% in February. Core inflation, a figure closely watched to assess underlying trends, climbed to 0.9% from 0.8%. The inflation increase is the latest in a string of slightly positive data for the 19-nation currency bloc, suggesting that the Euro zone's tepid domestic recovery remains on track despite headwinds from abroad. The ECB has been battling ultra-low inflation for years and unveiled an unexpectedly massive stimulus package this month, lowering rates deeper into negative territory, expanding monthly asset purchases by a third and offering free loans to banks. The ECB expects inflation to average just 0.1% this year before a pickup in 2017. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in Germany remained at a record-low level of 6.2% in March, with unemployed persons staying at 2.73 million. Moreover, German retail sales advanced 5.4% on an annual basis in February, a huge jump from the 1.2% decrease booked a month before. However, sales declined 0.4% month-on-month, following the 0.7% gain before.
31.03 open price 31.03 close price % change
EUR/USD 1.1338 1.138 +0.37%
EUR/GBP 0.78856 0.79257 +0.51%
EUR/CHF 1.09401 1.09447 +0.04%
EUR/JPY 127.46 128.11 +0.51%
USD
“Claims remain at a level that is consistent with low rates of involuntary job separation and this report, similar to other labor market-related releases for March, points to no significant shift in labor market trends at the end of the first quarter” - RDQ Economics
Friday, April 01, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
MAX 130 132 135
75% percentile 127 127 128
Median 125 125 125
25% percentile 122 123 122
MIN 115 115 113 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
US initial jobless claims unexpectedly rise last week; labour market momentum remains intact
High
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week, but a steep decline in layoffs in March suggested the labour market momentum remained intact. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits surged 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 276,000 for the week ended March26, according to the Labor Department. Economists had forecast claims remaining unchanged at 265,000 in the latest week. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better gauge of labour market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, rose 3,500 to 263,250 last week. Applications for unemployment benefits have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labour market conditions, for 56 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973. In the meantime, a report published earlier in the week showed US private companies continue to create new positions, with 200,000 jobs added this month, according to payrolls processor ADP and Moody's Analytics. A more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report from the Labor Department is due later in the day. Economists anticipate the report to show growth of 200,000 jobs, after surging 242,000 in February, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.9%.
31.03 open price 31.03 close price % change
AUD/USD 0.7671 0.7657 -0.18%
USD/CHF 0.965 0.9618 -0.33%
USD/JPY 112.43 112.57 +0.12%
NZD/USD 0.6921 0.6909 -0.17%
GBP
“Today's figures expose the real danger of economic uncertainty and show that now is precisely not the time to put our economic security at risk by leaving the EU” - Chancellor George Osborne
Friday, April 01, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
MAX 1.61 1.62 1.66
75% percentile 1.55 1.56 1.56
Median 1.51 1.51 1.52
25% percentile 1.49 1.48 1.47
MIN 1.41 1.28 1.25 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
UK economy grows stronger in Q4; current account deficit widens to record high
High
The UK economy ended 2015 on a firmer footing than previously thought, but the current account deficit widened to a record high level in the final quarter of the year. Britain’s gross domestic product increased 0.6% in the three months through December, compared with the 0.5% gain reported last month, according to the Office for National Statistics. The revision came due to better performance of the services sector, which rose at a faster pace of 0.8%, industrial output and construction. On the expenditure side, the strongest upward driver again came from consumers, with household expenditure increasing 0.6% to 267.4 billion pounds during the reported period, helping to offset a 2% decline in business investment and weak exports. The UK economy grew 0.4% in the third quarter. The annual growth in the fourth quarter was also revised, by two percentage points up to 2.1%. While the British economy grew stronger at the end of last year, the current account deficit widened to 32.7 billion pounds during the fourth quarter, the largest ever deficit recorded by the ONS, and compared with a revised deficit of 20.1 billion pounds recorded in the previous quarter. The deficit accounts for 7% of total GDP, which the ONS said was also the largest proportion since records began in 1955.
31.03 open price 31.03 close price % change
GBP/USD 1.4378 1.436 -0.13%
EUR/GBP 0.78856 0.79257 +0.51%
GBP/CAD 1.8643 1.8675 +0.17%
GBP/JPY 161.654 161.659 0.00%
CAD
“Today's monthly GDP report is perhaps the most encouraging in recent memory” - TD
Friday, April 01, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
MAX 1.42 1.41 1.43
75% percentile 1.37 1.37 1.36
Median 1.35 1.35 1.34
25% percentile 1.31 1.31 1.30
MIN 1.25 1.10 1.20 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Canada’s economy surprised by a stellar performance in January
High
Canada’s economy surprised by a stellar performance in January, with gross domestic product increasing the most in two-and-a-half years, boosted by strong manufacturing, retail trade as well as oil and gas extraction. The Canadian economy expanded by a more-than-expected 0.6% in January from the month before, growing for the fourth consecutive month. The figure was twice as much as economists had projected. Goods-producing industries surged by 1.2%, according to Statistics Canada, far better than the 0.4% growth seen in the service sector. Manufacturing grew 1.9% in January, up from a 1.1% increase in December. That indicates that the Canadian Dollar’s decline is finally starting to help manufacturing exporters, as economists had predicted. Measured on an annual basis, the economy grew 1.5%, also coming in above earlier projections of 1%.The first quarter is looking better than expected after receiving a great upward momentum from December. Also overall the fourth quarter was up 0.8% compared with the expected 0.1%. Economists anticipate the BoC to positively revise its 1% forecast for the first quarter in the upcoming April's Monetary Policy Report. BoC Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson said that Canada’s economy is diverse enough to move from its commodity focus and achieve a new balance of economic growth.
31.03 open price 31.03 close price % change
AUD/CAD 0.9947 0.9958 +0.11%
CAD/CHF 0.7443 0.7396 -0.63%
EUR/CAD 1.47007 1.47988 +0.67%
USD/CAD 1.2966 1.3004 +0.29%
JPY
“In particular global demand is heading south and this is increasing downside pressures on consumer spending and as a result on inflation which in our opinion will never reach the BoJ target of 2%” - Swissquote
Friday, April 01, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.29% 5,408.24
S&P/ASX 300 Index 0.28% 5,360.32
Trends* Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
MAX 145 150 148
75% percentile 134 135 136
Median 131 131 131
25% percentile 129 127 128
MIN 121 117 117 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Japan’s manufacturing activity stumbles in March; mood worsens
High
Confidence among big Japan’s manufacturers deteriorated in the three months to March and is expected to decline further ahead, a closely watched Bank of Japan survey showed. The headline index for big manufacturers' sentiment came in at plus 6 in March, down from plus 12 seen three months ago, according to the Bank of Japan's quarterly "tankan" survey. Domestic and overseas demand conditions both deteriorated further in the first quarter, while inventory levels increased. Moreover, inflationary pressures cooled last quarter, with both input and output prices declining at a steeper pace than in the final quarter of 2015. Manufacturing sales are predicted to decline 1.5% in the current financial year, and 0.6% in the 2016 financial year. Profit expectations for the 2015 financial year were revised sharply lower to -3.5%. On top of that, Japan's manufacturing activity contracted in March at the fastest pace in more than three years as new export orders shrank sharply. The Markit/Nikkei Final Japan manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from the final 50.1 in February. The sub-index for new export orders dived to 46.1, above the flash reading of 45.9 but still well below the 49.0 recorded in February. New export orders contracted at the fastest since January 2013.
31.03 open price 31.03 close price % change
AUD/JPY 86.245 86.195 -0.06%
CAD/JPY 86.71 86.563 -0.17%
EUR/JPY 127.46 128.11 +0.51%
USD/JPY 112.43 112.57 +0.12%
Friday, April 01, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events this week (March 21-25)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
2:00 pm USD Existing Home Sales February 5.08M 5.32M 5.47M
TUESDAY
5:30 am AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
9:00 am EUR German Ifo Business Climate March 106.7 106.1 105.7
9:30 am GBP CPI YoY February 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
10:00 am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment March 4.3 6.3 1.0
WEDNESDAY
9:45 pm NZD Trade Balance February 339M 75M 13M
THURSDAY
09:30 am GBP Retail Sales MoM February -0.4% -0.7% 2.3%
10:15 am EUR Targeted LTRO 7.3B 24.3B 18.3B
12:30 pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM February -1.0% -0.2% 1.7%
FRIDAY
12:30 pm USD Final GDP QoQ Quarter 4 1.0%
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Disclaimer Everything in this article, including opinions and figures, is provided for informational purposes only and may not be interpreted as financial advice or solicitation of products. Dukascopy group assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this article. Financial figures indicated in this article have not been verified by the Dukascopy group. Views, opinions and analyses are those of the author of the article, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy group. Dukascopy group waive any and all warranties, express or implied, regarding, but without limitation to, warranties of the merchantability or the fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to all information in this article. Dukascopy group shall under no circumstances be responsible for any direct, indirect, consequential, contingent or any other damages sustained in connection with the use of this article.
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