Fund Report October 2010

8/7/2019 Fund Report October 2010

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Your Guide to Naviga te the Comp lex World of Mutual Funds

October 2010

www.investca pital.com

InvestCap is the brokerage arm of:

Invest Capital Investment Bank Ltd .

A Public ation o f InvestCap ResearchPakistan Equity Research

INVEST GUIDE

INVEST GUIDE

Mazhar A. Sab irma zhar@investc ap ital.co m

9221-111 111 097 (ext 8635)


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Contents

Stock Market Review 01

Money Market Review 03

Mutual Funds Industry Review 05

Income Funds Review 06

Money Market Funds Review 07

Equity Funds Review 08Outlook 09

Open-ended funds ca tegory performance during CY10 10

Annexure - I 11

Glossary 15

Pakistan ResearchOctober 2010

A Public ation o f InvestCap Research

INVEST GUIDE


3/18

Oc tobe r 201Pakistan Research

Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund

www.investcapital.com


Invest Capital Investment Bank Ltd.1InvestCap Research

Equity Marke t ReviewIn Sep -10, the KSE100 ind ex w itnessed a series of vo latile sessions, swing ing in a wid e rang e o388p ts during the mo nth. The KSE100 inde x rec orded a n et inc rease o f 204pts, c losing a10,013 leve l. During first ha lf of the mo nth, ma rket witnessed a b ullish trend (touc hing the

highe st level of the m onth a t 10,091), on be half of the ne ws flow related to a pp rova l of thMTS (Ma rgin Trading System ) w ith a m arket c onsensus expe c ting no c hang e in the p olic y rat

in the then a nnounc ed Mo neta ry Polic y Sta tem ent (M PS). Howev er, the latte r pa rt of thmo nth witnessed a more range-bo und b ehavior due to profit-taking o bserved from the loc ainvestors. How ever, SCRA figures showe d t ha t foreign inve sto rs rema ined on th e b uying-sid

w ith foreign ne t inflows sta nd ing a t USD22mn in Sep -10 a ga inst USD41mn in Aug -10. Due tcountrys uncertain economic growth coupled with on-going pol i t ical drama, foreig

investme nt d uring Sep -10 reg istered a m a ssive d ec line o f 46% Mo M. How eve r, the a vera gd aily volumes in Sep -10 reg istered an increa se o f 7% with a verag e vo lumes c onsolida ting a60.41mn sha res a s aga inst the a ve rag e d a ily turnove r of 59.02mn sha res ob served in Aug -1

During 3Q CY10 (Jul-Sep 10), the m arket g ene rate d a ne t return of 3.0% with thin vo lume

witnessing low interest from the eq uity investors. In a dd ition, the SBP ra ised the p olicy rat e b100bp s (50bp s ea c h in last two bimo nthly MPS) during the q ua rter, imp a c ting neg atively thKSE100 inde x movem ent . In Jul-10, the ma rket a pp rec iate d b y 8.2% on M oM basis, howeve

in the la st w orking day of Jul-10, afte r the a nnounc em ent of 50bp s hike in DR, the KSE100 indefollow ing the inc rea se show ed a dip of 6.7% MoM during Aug -10. In Sep -10 onc e a ga in th

ma rket rec ove red b y 2.0% Mo M c losing the q uarter with a p ositive 3% grow th.

In t he 9MCY10 pe riod , the KSE100 ind ex ho vered in a 1000pts ra neg i.e. 9,400 10,400, wit

reco rding a n ove rall inc rease o f 6.7% du ring the p eriod .

An intensifying interest rat es environme nt w ith eve r rising inflationa ry pressures a nd lowec onom ic growth outlook, may trigg er a ma rket re-rating to wa rds low er multiples. How evethe future d irec tion of the m arket will be spec if ic ally dep enda nt on how the ma c roec onom i

num be rs turn out for 2HCY10 (ove rall foreign inflows, infla tion a nd interest rate s direc tiona nd mo re large ly, the introd uc tion of the rece ntly ap prove d Ma rgin Trading System (MTS

The C SF Fund c a n a lso b e a trigg er to the ma rket a nd som e relaxa tion from IMF a midevastation of f lood would be a beneficial for the country. In October-10, the markep erformed rela tively well an d increa sed by 5.8% to c losed a t 10,548 level.

KSE100 Index

10,013

Returns9MCY10: 6.7%3QC Y10: 3.0%2QC Y10: -4.5%1QC Y10: 8.4%

Market Cap italization30-Sep -10Rs2,772.4b n,USD32.4b n

Volumes(30-Sep-10)88.83 mn sha res.

ADT:120mn (9MC Y10)

EQUITY MARKET STATISTICS (SEP-10)

KSE 100 Index (30-Sep -10) 10,013

Change in Sep -10 (points) 200

Change in Sep -10 (%) 2.0%

YoY (From Sep -09) 7.1%

High for Sep-10 10,091Low for Sep -10 9,703

Average for Sep-10 9,918

Marke t Cap ita liza t ion (Rs.bn) (30-Sep-10) 2,772.4

Marke t C ap it a liza t ion (US$ bn ) ( 30-Sep10) 32.4

Change in Sep -10 1.1%

Sourc e: Inve stCa p Researc h


KSE100 Index Movement 9MCY10

-

50

100

150200

250

300

350

31-Dec-09

14-Jan-10

27-Jan-10

10-Feb-10

23-Feb-10

08-Mar-10

19-Mar-10

02-Apr-10

15-Apr-10

28-Apr-10

11-May-10

24-May-10

04-Jun-10

17-Jun-10

30-Jun-10

13-Jul-10

26-Jul-10

06-Aug-10

19-Aug-10

01-Sep-10

16-Sep-10

29-Sep-10

7,500

9,000

10,500

12,000Vol (Mn) (LHS)

KSE 100 Ind ex

(Shares

mn) (Index)


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Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




WORLD EQUITY INDICES PERFORMANCE (SEP-10)

INDICES INDEX SEP-10 9MCY10 3QCY10 2QCY10 1QCY10

MoM Jan-Sep10 Jul-Sep10 Apr-Jun10 Jan-Mar10

BSE Sensex (Ind ia ) 20,069 11.67% 14.91% 13.38% 0.99% 0.36%

KOSPI Ind ex (Korea ) 1,873 7.46% 11.29% 10.28% 0.32% 0.60%

KSE100 Index (Pakistan) 10,013 2.04% 6.67% 3.00% -3.56% 5.73%

Dow Jones Ind . (USA) 10,788 7.72% 3.45% 10.37% -9.97% 4.11%

FTSE100 Ind ex (UK) 5,549 6.19% 2.51% 12.85% -13.43% 4.93%

S&P 500 Ind ex (USA) 1,141 8.76% 2.34% 10.72% -11.86% 4.87%

Ha ng Se ng Ind ex (HK) 22,358 8.87% 2.22% 11.07% -5.23% -2.89%

NIKKEI225 Ind ex (Ja p an) 9,369 6.18% -11.16% -0.14% -15.40% 5.15%

Sha ng ha i C om p osit e (C hin a) 2,656 0.64% -18.96% 10.73% -22.86% -5.13%

Source : Bloom berg, InvestCa p Research

Follow ing is a c om pa rison ta ble of KSE100 index w ith the wo rld s ma jor eq uity ind ices,

wh ich p resent s eq uities performanc e fo r Sep -10 as we ll as last three qua rters . In Sep -10,ma jor wo rld eq uity indic es ha ve show n a significa nt a p prec iation, inc luding Ind ias BSESensex index c rossing the 20,000 mark and app rec iating b y 12% on a Mo M b asis, follow ed

by S&P500, registering a n app rec iating o f ~9% Mo M.

During 1QCY10 and 2QCY10, major eq uity indic es fac ed a hard time on the ba c k of a still

we ak g loba l eco nom ic c ond ition. How eve r, during 3QCY10, these ve ry indices show eda rec overy due to imp roved co rporate ea rnings, technical p ull-bac ks and in pa rt ,

retreating of two -fold d ip-dread ap pe aring to b e the p ositive market drivers.

-25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

1QCY10 2QCY10 3QCY10 9MCY10

Pa kista n Ind ia Ko rea USA UK HK Ja p a n C hin a

World Equity indices performance

Source: Bloomb erg, InvestCap Research


5/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




Money Market ReviewThe m one y ma rket rate s rema ined o n the low er side d uring Sep -10, ow ing to a relat ivebe tter liq uidity p osition of t he ma rket. Net Foreign Assets (NFAs) a lso imp roved tha nks t

IMFs f loo d-related em ergen c y lend ing of USD450mn. Despite the a b senc e of a c tuaestima tes of the flood -related de vastations on c ountrys mac ro d ata , the SBP de c ided ttake a p roa c tive mo ve to c ontrol rising m ac roec onom ic imb alanc es and henc e, increase

its po lic y rate b y 50bp s to 13.5% in Sep -10 mo neta ry po lic y review.

KIBOR Perfo rma nc e

In Sep -10, the KIBOR of a ll teno rs has bee n show ing a n up wa rd mo vem ent, whic h c losed a12.98%, 13.09% and 13.27%, for 1M, 3M a nd 6M respec tively, on the exp ec ta tion o f increa sin the Discount Rate (DR). On the other hand, 1M-KIBOR averaged at 12.72% showing

de c line o f 0.04% from the p revious mo nths averag e, while 3M a nd 6M KIBOR ave rage d a12.78% a nd 12.92% resp ec tively, show ing a n up wa rd m ove me nt o f 0.08% a nd 0.09

resp ec tively from their p revious mo nth s a vera ge s.

During 3QCY10, the KIBOR of a ll tenors inc reased significa ntly in line with t he increa se in D

by the Sta te Bank of Pakista n. Period-w ise, IM, 3M a nd 6M KIBOR inc reased by 53bp s, 80bpand 90bp s respe c tively, during the pe riod .

Disc ount Rate

(30-Sep-10) 13.50%


Yield Curve

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

7Days

15Days

1M

3M

6M

12M 3

Y5Y

10Y

15Y

20Y

30Y

30-Sep -09 31-Dec -09

30-Jun-10 30-Sep -10

KIBOR Performa nc e during 9MCY10

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

31-Dec-09

15-Jan-10

30-Jan-10

14-Feb-10

01-Mar-10

16-Mar-10

31-Mar-10

15-Apr-10

30-Apr-10

15-May-10

30-May-10

14-Jun-10

29-Jun-10

14-Jul-10

29-Jul-10

13-Aug-10

28-Aug-10

12-Sep-10

27-Sep-10

1M KIBO R 3M KIBO R6M KIBOR

Sourc e: FMR, InvestCa p Researc h

KIBOR

(30-Sep-10)

1M: 12.66%

3M: 12.82%6M: 12.96%9M: 13.28%

12M: 13.35%


6/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




Treasury Bills (T-Bills)

The c ut-off yields of T-bills for 3M, 6M a nd 12M inc reased significa ntly in Sep -10 antic ipa tion of inc rease in the DR. In this reg ard, 3M, 6M a nd 12M c ut-off yields stoo

at 12.75%, 12.85% and 12.79%, show ing a n a pp rec iation o f 23bp s, 18bps on Mo M baswherea s no c ha ng e in the 12M T-bills c ut-off yields wa s ob served .

In Sep -10, the SBP c ond uc ted two T-bills auc tions whe re ma jor pa rtic ipa tion wawitnessed in the 3-month t enure. Cut-ff yields increa sed by 9b ps and 11bp s in 3M, an

6M pa pe r in the first auc tion, while the sec ond auc tion saw yields go ing up b y 14bpin 3M a nd 7bp s in 6M T-bills. Short-da ted pa p ers rema ined a c tive in the sec ond ar

ma rket w ith their yield rang ing b etw ee n 11.45% and 12.25%.

Follow ing a re the T-bills auc tion d eta ils c ond uc ted by the SBP during 3QCY10.

Pak istan Investme nt Bonds (PIBs)PIB rates were on the rise a s we ll am id exp ec ta tions of the increa se in the d isc oun

rate by the c enta l ba nk. The 10-yea r pap er trad ed as high a s 14.05% on Sep tem be30, 2010 (ap p lic a b le PKRV rate for Sep temb er wa s 13.75%) a fte r the 50bp s increasin the DR (to 13.5%) o n Sep tem ber 29. The SBP rejec ted a ll the PIB auc tions whic

were c onduc ted during 3QCY10.

3M 185,000 75,100 12.10%

6M 185,000 110,604 12.37%

1Y 185,000 33,950 12.46%

3M 200,000 169,241 12.52%

6M 200,000 15,700 12.66%

1Y 200,000 8,700 12.09%

3M 150,000 104,852 12.75%

6M 150,000 31,050 12.35%1Y 75,000 2,513 12.79%

Accepted

Am ount (Rsmn)

Last Cut-off

Yields

Jul-10 2

Months TenorsNo. of

Auctions

Targe t Am ount

(Rsmn)

Aug-10 2

Sep -10 2

Pak istan Investme nt Bonds

La st C ut-off yields

(30-Sep-10)

3Y: 13.90%

5Y:14.00%

10Y:14.10%

20Y:14.20%

30Y:13.55%


7/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




Mutual Fund Industry ReviewDuring the mo nth of Sep -10, the loc al m utual funds ind ustry dec lined by 2.4% to rea c h aRs202bn. Ind ustrys open-end fund s size dec reased by 1.8% to c lose a t ~Rs174bn w hile c losedend funds size rea c hed at Rs28bn , show ing a dec line o f 6.3% on Mo M b asis. The m ain rea sofor the d ec line in c losed -end funds sc hem e w as the co nversion of c losed -end fund i.e. J

Larg e C a p Fund (JSLCF), into op en-e nd fund in Sep 10. Eq uity fund s c a teg ory show s aap p rec iation o f 8% amid KSE100 inde x witnessing a n up wa rd movem ent o f 2.0% in Sep -10.

During 3QCY10, the loc al m utua l funds ind ustry co nsolida ted a t c urrent levels as the indu stap prec iate d by o nly 1.5% during 3QCY10. Thanks to the mo ney m arket c ate go ry p erformanc

tha t helpe d m ainta in industry at the c urrent leve ls since Jun-09, wherea s othe r funds c a teg oriec onsistently show ed a d ec lining trend. If we c om pa re the industry fund size w ith that a t en

Jun-09, it stoo d a t Rs204bn, while in Dec 09, the fund size rea c hed to Rs225bn, show ing aapprec iation of 10.3%. Then o nwa rds, the industry has bee n on a dow nturn, dec lining by 11.2

till Jun-10 rea c hing a t Rs199bn. On the c ontrary, the mo ney m arket funds ca teg ory inc reaseby a m assive 418% during Jul-Dec 09 pe riod , while show ing a n ap p rec iation o f 89% during Ja nJun10, which makes a c um ulat ive g row th o f 877% during FY10 (Jul-Jun10). During 1QFY11, th

mo ney m arket fund s c ate go ry ag ain p unc hed in a solid 29% grow th, show ing investors riskave rsion tow ards long term investme nt p referenc e.

Industry Size (Sep-10) Rs202bn

Op en-ended Rs174b n

Closed -end Rs28bn

No. of Fund s 132

Op en-ended 113

Closed -end 18

Asse t Ma na g ers 25

Mutua l Funds Industry performa nce YoY

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

-12%

-10%

-8%-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%Net Assets (LHS) Growth

(Rsbn)

Sourc e: FMR, InvestCap Researc h


Mutual Funds Industry Growth

16.1%

1.5%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

3QCY093QCY10


8/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




Inco me Funds Revie w

The op en-end inco me funds c ateg ory com prising inco me and ag gressive incom e funddec lined by 5% in Sep -10 reac hing a t Rs55bn. During 3QCY10, the c at eg ory also show ed

de c line of 7.5% as com pa red to an a pp rec iation o f 6.6% during the sam e p eriod of CY09.

In Sep -10, the inco me funds c at eg ory (exc luding ag gressive inc om e fund s c at eg ory) earne

an annua lized return of 18% on a n average ba sis. If we exc lude t he BMACSF s abnorma l returof 147%, the c at eg ory has ac tua lly show ed a retu rn of 11.7% on a n annua lized basis, which

still bet ter tha n the previous mo nth s return o f 9.3%. The inc om e fund s c ate go ry has be estriving to attrac t investors and ge nerate be tter return through the ir investme nt a venueHowe ver, the m ajor portion o f these funds being invested into the long term c om mercia

p ap ers is not expe c ted to be nefit in a rising interest rate s sc ena rio. During 3QCY10, this verc ateg ory however, generated an averag e annualized return of 11%.

Incom e Funds Growth

6.6%

-7.5%

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0% 3QCY09

3QCY10


Incom e Funds performanc e YoY

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%Net Assets (LHS)Growth

(Rsbn)


Cumulative average Income funds return

during CY10

5%

6%

6%

6%

6%

7%

5%

6%7%

4.0%4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

1MCY10

2MC1Y10

3MCY10

4MCY10

5MCY10

6MCY10

7MCY10

8MCY10

9MCY10


Monthly Average return of Incom e Funds

9MCY10

5%

9%

3%

13%

7%

5%

11%

9%

18%

0.0%

2.0%4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10



9/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




Mone y Market Funds Review

As we d isc ussed ea rlier tha t the m one y ma rket fund s a re still best investm ent a venue forthe investors a nd the c ate go ry grow b y 29% d uring 3QCY10, how eve r in Sep 10, thec a teg ory de c lined by 7%, ma jor dec lined witnessed in the fund size o f BMAECF of 24.2%

on Mo M b asis.

The m oney m arket c ateg ory also m ana ged to e arn an a verag e a nnualized return of 11%during 3QCY10 while 11.2% during Sep -10, be tte r than p revious mo nth s 10.6%. The reasonfor the imp rove d level of returns wa s the fund m an ag ers po lic y of keep ing funds unde r

the short term p lace ments, which wo uld be nefit in the c urrent interest rate environm entwhe re sec ond ary ma rket yields have grad ually be en on the rise a ga in by no w.

Mone y Marke t Funds pe rforma nce YoY

-

10

20

30

40

50

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

0%

50%100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%Net Assets (LHS)

Growth

(Rsbn)



Cumulative ave rage MM funds return

during CY10

11%11% 11%11%

10%11% 11% 11%

11%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

1MCY10

2MC1Y10

3MCY10

4MCY10

5MCY10

6MCY10

7MCY10

8MCY10

9MCY10


Monthly Ave rage return of MM Funds

9MCY10

11% 10% 10%11%

10%11% 11% 11% 11%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10


10/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




Equity Funds Growth

21.2%

6.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

3QCY09

3QCY10


Equity Funds pe rformanc e YoY

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%Net Assets (LHS)

Growth

(Rsbn)



Cumulative averag e Equity funds return

during CY10

-3%

-5%-5%

6%5%

1%

-2%

1%

3%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

1MCY10

2MC1Y10

3MCY10

4MCY10

5MCY10

6MCY10

7MCY10

8MCY10

9MCY10

Monthly Av erag e return of Equity Funds

9MCY10

1% 0%

4%

0%

-11%

1%

8%

-6%

1%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10


Equity Fund s Rev iew

In the eq uity funds c ate go ry, one new fund has bee n induc ted , as JS Investme nts Limitec onverted its c losed -end e quity fund name ly JS La rge Ca p Fund , into op en-end fund . The sizof the c a teg ory stoo d a t Rs41.6bn in Sep 10 as c om pared t o Rs38.6bn in Aug -10, thus show in

an ap prec iat ion of 8% MoM . During 3QCY10, the eq uity ca teg ory inc rea sed by 6.3%outp erforming the KSE100 inde x which rec orde d an ap prec iation of 3.0% during the sampe riod. Howeve r, on a YoY ba sis c om pa red to 3QCY09, the c ate go ry grew by 21.2% as aga ins

the KSE100 inde xs app rec iation o f 30.5% witne ssed bac k then.

In Sep -10, the equity fund c ate go ry unde rpe rformed the KSE100 benc hma rk ea rning a n ave ragreturn of 1.1% as c om pared with th e KSE100 inde xs app rec iation o f 2.0%. How ever, AKDOP

and USAF am ong st othe r funds outp erforme d the inde x and ea rned return of 5.6% and 2.8respe c tively. During 3QCY10, the c at eg ory po sted an av erag e return of 3.0%, in line w ith thKSE100 ind ex return o f 3.0%. Highest return w as ea rned by the ASMF and USAF of 6.9% and 5.9%

respe c tively, outp erforming the b enc hma rk index by hea vy ma rgins.


11/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




OutlookAs me ntioned ea rlier, in the rising interest rates sc ena rio, the fund ma nag ers are e xpec ted to rem ain foc used mo re on shorterm instruments. Howe ver, during O c t-10, a reviva l in the e q uity market a c tivity lead ing to a surge o f 5.8% du ring t he m onth

will d efinitely ind uc e the mu tua l fund s industry tow a rds rec onside ration o f eq uities a s the ind ustry sits on sufficien t liquidity nowThis wa s a lso evid ent from the latest LIPI (Loc a l Investor Portfolio Investme nt) figures that the mut ua l fund s we re ne t b uyers stoc k ma rket d uring the mo nths of Oc t10 afte r a long time (since Ja n-10).

On c ountrys ec ono mic front, sc hed uled m ee tings be twe en g ove rnment officials and IMF-World Ba nk sta ff for rene go tiatioof the rema ining tran c hes of USD3.4bn (of Sta nd -By Agree me nt with IMF) with resetting the ec ono mic pe rforma nc e c riter(with more relaxations due to f lood de vastations) unde r revised bud ge t for FY11, would be a key to de termine the overa

mo ney a nd c ap ital ma rkets performa nc es ahea d. Rising inflationa ry pressures (ove r 16% CPI expe c ted for Oc t-10) and c onsitent g ovt b orrowing w ould keep the c entral bank glued to its t ighter mo neta ry stanc e, which m ay lead to further rise

secondary market interest rates pressuring equities. However, timely aid flows and other grant disbursements from the IFI(Interna tiona l Financ ial Institutions) with likely inflow of the C oa lition Sup port Fund of USD750mn b y end Nov -10 will imp rov

liqu idity in the system a nd t herefo re be tte r ma rket a c tivity in the financ ial markets fetc hing grea ter inve stors interest.


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Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




Monthly Averag e return of Ag gressive

Inco me Funds 9MCY10

2% 2% 3%

-8%

2%

-6% -7%

-2%-2%-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Monthly Averag e return of Islam ic Equity

Funds 9MCY10

2%0% 1% 0%

9%

5%

-11%

2%

-5%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Monthly Average return of Islamic Income

Funds 9MCY10

3% 2%

12%

19%

8%

20%

7%4%4%

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Monthly Averag e return of Asset Alloc ation

Funds 9MCY10

0.8% 0.4%

-0.1%

4.9%

6.4%

-6.4%

0.4%

-3.0%-0.5%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-

10

Apr-10

May-

10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Monthly Averag e return of Balanc ed Funds

9MCY10

0.4% 0.2% 0.4%

-3.0%

0.7%

-5.7%

1.8%5.3%-0.1%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Monthly Average return of Islamic Balanc ed

& Alloc ation Funds 9MCY10

0.5%

-0.1%

-0.3%

5.6%

1.0%

-4.0%

3.8%

-2.8%

2.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Source: FMR, InvestCap Research

Open- end funds c a teg ories return during 9MCY10


13/18


14/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




OPEN- ENDED MUTUAL FUNDS PERFORMANCE

RETURNS ANALYSIS RISK ANALYSIS

S.NO . NA ME SYM BO L INCEPTION DA TE 3QCY10 SEP- 10 9M CY10 STD. DEVIA TIO N SHA RP

(DAILY) RATIO

MONEY MARKET FUNDS

11 Atlas Money Market Fund AMF 21-Jan-10 10.8% 11.1% 10.6% 0.03% N/ M*

12 Alfalah GHP Cash Fund AGCF 12-Mar-10 10.7% 11.0% N/A N/A N/A

13 HBL Money Market Fund HBL-MMF 12-Jul-10 10.7% 11.5% N/A N/A N/A

14 BMA Empress Cash Fund BMAECF 11-Nov-09 10.4% 11.1% 10.5% 0.04% N/ M*

EQUITY FUNDS

1 Atlas Stock Market Fund ASMF 22-Nov-04 6.9% 2.4% 2.3% 0.98% N/ M*

2 United Stock Advantage Fund USAF 4-Aug-06 5.9% 2.8% -0.3% 0.71% N/ M*

3 MCB Dynamic Stock Fund MCBDSF 1-Mar-07 4.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.93% N/ M*

4 AKD Opportunity Fund AKDOPF 31-Mar-06 4.7% 5.6% -0.5% 0.59% N/ M*

5 IGI Stock Fund IGISF 15-Jul-08 4.4% 0.1% 1.9% 0.79% N/ M*

6 ABL Stock Fund ABL-SF 5-Jun-09 3.9% 1.0% 6.3% 0.89% N/ M*

7 Lakson Equity Fund LEF 12-Nov-09 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.89% N/ M*

8 Crosby Dragon Fund CDF 12-Dec-03 2.9% 0.7% -5.8% 0.96% N/ M*

9 HBL Stock Fund HBLSF 29-Aug-07 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.87% N/ M*

10 NAFA Stock Fund NSF 22-Jan-07 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.93% N/ M*

11 Alfalah GHP Alpha Fund AGAF 5-Sep-08 2.1% 0.0% 2.7% 1.06% N/ M*

12 KASB Stock Fund KSF 22-Mar-07 2.0% 0.9% -5.4% 0.96% N/ M*

13 Pakistan Stock Market Fund PSMF 11-Mar-02 1.9% -0.3% -1.7% 0.77% N/ M*

14 JS Large Cap Fund JSLCF May-04 1.3% 0.5% -13.2% 0.73% N/ M*

15 National Investment (Unit) Trust NIT 12-Nov-63 1.1% 2.0% -6.9% 1.11% N/ M*16 First Habib Stock Fund FHSF 10-Oct-09 0.1% -0.1% -3.4% 0.91% N/ M*

INDEX TRACKER FUNDS

1 UTP A30 Index Tracker Fund UTPA30ITF 29-May-06 3.7% 0.8% 1.4% 1.04% N/ M*

2 AKD Index Tracker Fund AKDITF 1-Mar-06 2.7% 1.9% 6.2% 0.96% N/ M*

ASSET ALLOC ATION FUNDS

1 MCB Dynamic Allocation Fund MCBDAF 17-Mar-08 4.3% 1.8% 1.1% 0.55% N/ M*

2 Faysal Asset Allocation Fund FAAF 24-Jul-06 3.8% 3.6% N/A N/A N/A

3 JS-Aggressive Asset Allocation Fund JSAAAF 28-Jun-05 3.2% 1.0% -8.1% 0.87% N/ M*

4 Pakistan Capital Market Fund PCM 24-Jan-04 2.4% 0.8% 4.6% 0.53% N/ M*

5 Askari Asset Allocation Fund ASK-AAF 10-Sep-07 1.5% -1.2% -4.4% 0.51% N/ M*

6 Pak Oman Advantage Stock Fund POASF 29-Oct-08 0.7% -0.4% -8.7% 0.40% N/ M*

7 NAFA Asset Allocation Fund NAAF 21-Aug-10 0.6% 0.4% N/A N/A N/A

8 Al-Falah GHP Value Fund AGVF 28-Oct-05 -0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 0.55% N/ M*

9 KASB Asset Allocation Fund KAAF 31-Dec-07 -2.1% -3.0% -6.2% 0.71% N/ M*

BALANCED FUNDS

1 NAFA Multi Asset Fund NMAF 22-Jan-07 5.2% 1.1% 7.9% 0.46% N/ M*

2 Faysal Balanced & Growth Fund FBGF 14-Apr-04 3.3% 1.9% -3.5% 0.50% N/ M*

3 HBL Multi-Asset Fund HBLMAF 14-Dec-07 1.6% -0.5% 2.9% 0.71% N/ M*

4 Unit Trust of Pakistan UTP 27-Oct-97 1.4% 0.4% -8.4% 0.64% N/ M*


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Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




OPEN- ENDED MUTUAL FUNDS PERFORMANCE

RETURNS ANALYSIS RISK ANALYSIS

S.NO. NA ME SYM BOL INCEPTION DATE 3QC10 SEP- 10 9M CY10 STD. DEVIATION SHA R(DAILY) RATIO

ISLAMIC EQUITY FUNDS

1 Atlas Islamic Fund AISF 15-Jan-07 7.7% 1.8% 5.3% 0.91% N/ M

2 Meezan Islamic Fund M IF 8-Aug-03 5.6% 1.5% 5.4% 0.95% N/ M

3 JS-Islamic Fund UTPISF 27-Dec-02 4.6% 2.1% -5.2% 0.98% N/ M

ISLAMIC INCOME FUNDS

1 NAFA Islamic Income Fund NIIF 26-Oct-07 19.7% 32.6% 46.1% 1.63% 1.19

2 Meezan Islamic Income Fund M IIF 15-Jan-07 14.3% 20.9% 9.2% 0.11% N/ M

3 United Islamic Income Fund UIIF 23-Oct-07 12.0% 55.0% 6.8% 0.18% N/ M

4 Askari Islamic Income Fund ASKIIF 18-Sep-09 11.2% 17.5% 9.4% 0.03% N/ M

5 Meezan Soverign Fund MSF 10-Feb-10 10.5% 11.0% N/A N/A N/A

6 Faysal Islamic Savings Growth Fund FISGF 14-Jun-10 9.7% 9.2% N/A N/A N/A

7 IGI Islamic Income Fund IGIIIF 3-Dec-09 9.7% 9.4% 10.5% 0.02% N/ M

8 Atlas Islamic Income Fund AIIF 21-Aug-08 9.0% 9.5% 8.9% 0.15% N/ M

9 NAFA Riba Free Savings Fund NRFSF 21-Aug-10 8.8% 7.5% N/A N/A N/A

10 Pak Oman Advantage Islamic Income Fund POAIIF 29-Oct-08 7.8% 7.9% 9.9% 0.49% N/ M

11 KASB Islamic Income Opportunity Fund KIIF 7-Jun-08 -4.7% 35.3% 0.4% 0.42% N/ M

ISLAMIC MONEY MARKET FUNDS

1 Meezan Cash Fund MCF 22-Jun-09 10.2% 10.3% 10.2% 0.06% N/ M

2 ABL Islamic Cash Fund ABL-ICF 30-Jul-10 8.9% 8.8% N/A N/A N/A

ISLAMIC BALANCED AND ALLOCATION FUNDS

1 Dawood Islamic Fund DIF 12-Jul-07 28.3% 18.8% 14.3% 0.95% 0.38

2 NAFA Islamic Multi Asset Fund NIMAF 29-Oct-07 6.7% 2.5% 15.3% 0.55% 0.83

3 United Composite Islamic Fund UCIF 24-Dec-06 6.0% 4.1% 3.5% 0.48% N/ M

4 Pakistan Int. Element Islamic Fund PIIF 2-May-06 2.3% -0.2% -5.0% 0.74% N/ M

5 Askari Islmaic Asset Allocation Fund ASK-IAAF 18-Sep-09 1.3% 0.8% 2.8% 0.22% N/ M

6 Alfalah GHP Islamic Fund AGIF 3-Sep-07 1.2% 0.3% 2.4% 0.51% N/ M

7 Pak Oman Advantage Islamic Fund POAISF 29-Oct-08 1.1% 0.5% 2.9% 0.60% N/ M

CAPITAL PROTECTED FUNDS

1 JS Principal Secure Fund - I JSPSF-1 24-Apr-09 10.9% 1.5% 9.3% 0.58% N/ M

2 JS Capital Protected Fund - IV JSCPF-IV 17-Apr-08 3.4% 1.0% 6.6% 0.15% N/ M

3 Meezan Capital Procted Fund-I MCPF-I 8-May-08 3.1% 1.0% 7.8% 0.15% N/ M

4 KASB Capital Protected Gold Fund KCPGF 19-Mar-10 2.4% 1.2% N/A N/A N/A

5 Pakistan Capita l Protected Fund-FIS PCPF-FIS 17-Feb-10 2.3% 0.9% N/A N/A N/A

6 JS Princ ipal Secure Fund - II JSPSF-1I 14-Dec-09 2.3% 0.8% 5.2% 0.10% N/ M

7 MCB Sarmaya Mehfooz Fund - I MSMF-1 14-Jun-10 2.1% 0.8% N/A N/A N/A

8 Unied Capita l Protec ted Fund-II UCPF-II 23-May-10 1.8% 0.7% N/A N/A N/A

9 Alfalah GHP Princ ipal Protected Fund-I AGPPF 21-Jul-08 1.3% 0.6% 4.8% 0.48% N/ M

10 Alfalah GHP Princ ipal Protec ted Fund-II AGPPF-II 1-Sep -09 1.2% 0.6% 4.7% 0.19% N/ M


16/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




OPEN- ENDED MUTUAL FUNDS PERFORMANCERETURNS ANALYSIS RISK ANALYSIS

S.NO . NA ME SYM BO L INCEPTION DA TE 3QCY10 SEP- 10 9M CY10 STD. DEVIA TIO N SHA R(DAILY) RATIO

FUND OF FUNDS

1 JS Fund of Funds JS-FOF 31-Oct-05 3.8% 1.4% -8.4% 1.05% N/ M

BOND FUNDS

1 Metro Soverign Fund MSF 1-Mar-03 6.1% 7.9% 9.2% 0.65% N/ M

INDICES

KSE100 Index 3.0% 2.0% 6.7% 1.02% N/ M

KSE 30 Index 1.5% -7.5% -1.5% 1.13% N/ M

**Sharpe Ratio d enot es risk-adjusted p erforman ce of the fund (SR of 1x and high er, bett er the risk-adjusted return)

N/ M* = Not Me aning ful as fund s returns are less tha n the risk free rate, the refore the ir Sharp e Ratio is me aning less to b e qo uted ,Annualized Return of all income funds is calculated by M orning Star Metho dology

Sorte d b ased o n 3QCY10 return ba sisN/A = Not App lica ble due to launch afte r Dec 31, 2009

All ratios have bee n c alc ulated using 9MFY10 returns (from July 1, 2009)

For income funds 3-mont h weight ed a verag e T-bills cu t-off yields have b een ta ken as a risk-free rate a nd For eq uity relate d fund s we ighted ave rage 10-year PIBs cu t-off yeilds have b eenta ken a s a risk-free rate


17/18


Invest Guide

Mutua l Fund




GLOSSARY

AM Asset Manager

AMC Asset Ma nagement Comp any

AUM Assets under Management

ADT Avera ge Da ily TurnoverBn Billion

FMR Fund Mana ger s Rep ort

IAS Interna tiona l Ac counting Sta nd ard

KIBOR Ka ra chi Inter Ba nk Offer Ra te

KSE Karac hi Stoc k Exc ha nge

MFR Mutua l Fund Ra ting

MoM Month on Month

MUFAP M utua l Fund s A sso c atio n o f Pa kist an

NAV Net Asset Va lue

PIBs Pa kista n Investment Bond s

Pts Po intsPKR Pa kistani Rup ee

QoQ Qua rter on Qua rter

SBP Sta te Bank of Pakistan

SEC P Se c urit ie s & Exc ha ng e C om missio n o f Pa kist anT-Bills Terasury Bills

TFC Term Finance Certifica tes

YTD Yea r to Da te

FY10 Fro m July 01, 2009 to June 30, 2010

FY09 Fro m July 01, 2008 to June 30, 2009


18/18

MONEY MARKET DESK

(92-21) 3520 8751, 3520 8757, 3520 8767

Naeem-ul-Hasan

Aamir Saee d Khan

Mob in Wahid

Asif Hussa in

Na sir Suria

Mehmood Qureshi

EQUITY SALES DESK

(92-21) 3520 8727, 3520 8735, 3520 8730-31

Sha hrukh Naq vi

Noureen Mo in Khan

Nabee l Jafa r

Irfan Ali Muha mm ad

RESEARCH (92-21) 111 111 097

Khurra m Sc hehzad Ec ono my, Strate g y, Oil, Co nstruct ion, FMCG s a nd Pa p er & Boa rd

Fa rhan Ba shir Kha n Fertilizers, Cem ent s a nd Telec om

Muniba Saeed Power, Banks and Text iles

Nauman Khan E&P, Ref ineries and Chemica ls

Mazhar A. Sab ir Mutual Funds and Insuranc e

Abdul Azeem Automobi le, Gas Dist ribut ion and Textiles

Saeed Kha lid FMCGs and Paper & Board

Rashid Ali Ahson Tec hnica ls

A kh ta r Na w a z Da t a b a se In c ha rg e

A sim A bb a s Re se a rc h Dist rib u tio n

Pakistan ResearchSeptember 2010

A Public ation o f InvestCap Research

INVEST GUIDE

FOREIGN EXCHANGE DESK

(92-21) 3520 8778-87

Imran Choha n

Atif Ali

Syed Atif Abbas Naq vi

Syed Ali Yazdan

Mohammad Waqa s

Moham mad Zain

COMMODITY SALES DESK

(92-21) 3521 35226-28

Ali Kazmi

Juna id Zakaria

Muhamma d Ali

Fund Report October 2010

Documents

Transcript of Fund Report October 2010