Fuel and Refining Trends Presentation at Louisiana State University Fred Stiers General Manager,...
-
Upload
duane-french -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
1
Transcript of Fuel and Refining Trends Presentation at Louisiana State University Fred Stiers General Manager,...
Fuel and Refining TrendsPresentation at Louisiana State University
Fred StiersGeneral Manager, Lake Charles Refinery
October 22, 2004
World Energy Demand OutlookWorld Energy Demand Outlook
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1971 2000 2010 2020 2030
Hydro & OtherRenewables
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Million Tons of Oil Equivalent
Source: International Energy Agency,“World Energy Outlook”
U.S. Price Threshold for ChangeU.S. Price Threshold for ChangeSurvey by CNW Marketing ResearchSurvey by CNW Marketing Research
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1.75 2.25 2.75 3.25 3.75
Eventually Immediately
Percent
Survey measures the percent of new car owners who would buy a new, more fuel-efficient car immediately or eventually based on the price of gasoline.
Survey of 3,981 car owners nationwide, assuming price remains for 6 months
Gasoline Price ($ per Gallon)
U.S. Consumer Spending on Energy as U.S. Consumer Spending on Energy as a Percentage of Disposable Incomea Percentage of Disposable Income
3.7%
4.2%
4.7%
5.2%
5.7%
6.2%
6.7%
7.2%
7.7%
8.2%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Auto TrendsAuto Trends
MSRP: $20,510Hybrid System Mfg. Cost:
$2500-350055 mpg avg city/highway
45 mpg actual?
Hybrid ElectricHybrid ElectricToyota PrirusToyota Prirus
M.T. Car of the YearM.T. Car of the Year
VW Passat diesel(return after 8 years)
NOX concerns for U.S.
Diesel CarDiesel Car European Automakers European Automakers
Ramping UpRamping Up
Fuel Cell VehiclesFuel Cell VehiclesMany Challenges to Many Challenges to
OvercomeOvercome
•Safety•Inadequate nat gas as H2 source•Cost too high by a factor of 10
U.S. Refining CapacityU.S. Refining Capacity
150
175
200
225
250
275
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
14
16
18
20
22
Number of RefineriesNumber of Refineries
Distillation Capacity
Number of Refineries
Capacity/DemandCapacity/Demand(million barrels per day)(million barrels per day)
Demand
Source: U.S. DOE, API, P&G
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400U
.S.
We
ek
ly G
as
oli
ne
Im
po
rts
, M
bb
l/d
ay Imports represent approximately Imports represent approximately
10% of today’s U.S. gasoline 10% of today’s U.S. gasoline demand!demand!
Source data: U.S. EIA
520
845
U.S. Refinery Capacity UtilizationU.S. Refinery Capacity Utilization
Gross input to refineries / operable capacity
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
Pe
rce
nt
Uti
liza
tio
nP
erc
en
t U
tiliz
ati
on
HistoryHistory Forecast (DOE)Forecast (DOE)
90%
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
U.S. Refining TrendsU.S. Refining Trends• Capital money for US refining has been spent to
meet changing fuel specification rather than build additional capacity (estimated $20 Billion)• LSG and ULSD
• the 2% RFG oxygen mandate
• Local/regional boutique fuels
U.S. Gasoline RequirementsU.S. Gasoline Requirements
U.S. RefiningTrendsU.S. RefiningTrends• Capital money for US refining has been spent to
meet changing fuel specification rather than build additional capacity (estimated $20 Billion)• LSG and ULSD• the 2% RFG oxygen mandate
• Local/regional boutique fuels
• Public demand continues to increase; however, so does “not in my backyard” resistance to refinery and infrastructure expansions• Permitting difficulties
• Litigation from upsets and environmental issues
Locations of U.S. Refineries 2004Locations of U.S. Refineries 2004
U.S. Refining ConcernsU.S. Refining Concerns• Capital money for US refining has been spent to
meet changing fuel specification rather than build additional capacity (estimated $20 Billion)• LSG and ULSD• the 2% RFG oxygen mandate
• Local/regional boutique fuels
• Public demand continues to increase; however, so does “not in my backyard” resistance to refinery and infrastructure expansions• Permitting difficulties
• Litigation from upsets and environmental issues
• Investment in refining capacity post Clean Fuels will require a sustained trend of strong return on capital employed.
Thanks for the opportunity !