Silk road initiative: Do not underestimate the potential dangers

and problems

Reporter: SUN Yining

Not enough attention is given to the conflicts that may arise at many levels. There

will be conflicts between the great powers, conflicts within the societies that will

benefit from the projects, and conflicts in China itself. These problems require

constant negotiations and concessions to achieve power sharing and resources

sharing as well as guaranteed access to resources and multi-dimensional

connectivity. At national and international levels, there must be stronger social

organization and popular participation.

Reporter: The belt and road initiative consists of two main components, the

land-based "Silk Road Economic Belt" (SREB) and oceangoing "Maritime

Silk Road" (MSR). What’s your view about China’s proposal of the belt and

road initiative? And what do you think is America’s attitude towards the belt

and road initiative?

Robert R. Bianchi

Fulbright Senior Research Scholar in China, Shanghai

International Studies University. Political scientist and

international lawyer with special interests in China and

the Islamic World. Lecturer at University of Chicago Law

School. Author of Islamic Globalization: Pilgrimage,

Capitalism, Democracy, and Diplomacy

Robert Bianchi: The initiative is filled with wonderful visions and ambitions, but it is

also filled with potential dangers. I am more concerned with the potential problems

and dangers. Not enough attention is given to the conflicts that may arise at many

levels. There will be conflicts between the great powers, conflicts within the societies

that will benefit from the projects, and conflicts in China itself. As far as the

Americans’ view of the Silk Road is concerned, there is no American view. Americans

don’t know much about it and don’t care much about it. The American government’s

attitude towards the idea is generally unfriendly or uninterested. Especially now,

America is completely distracted, because of its presidential politics, the Middle

Eastern problems, and Russia. In a strange way, these distractions are a blessing for

China and US relations. But they won’t last long; the heat is going to increase. As we

all know, the heat will go up and down.

Reporter: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is viewed as a supplement

of the Belt and Road Initiative. Until now, it is supported by 37 regional and

20 non-regional Prospective Founding Members (PFM). However, some

major economies including the United States, Japan and Canada did not

become PFM. What’s your view about that? And what’s your view about TPP

（Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement）and what do you think is the

profound influence of it?

Robert Bianchi: It’s viewed as a Chinese-led bank and as competition for the existing

economic institutions. Major economies will wait to see whether the new rival is an

opportunity or danger, whether this is going to be an open and universal community

or a club led by China. The older institutions are a club led by the US. Maybe we just

need a fair and open institution. It’s the same problem in the South China Sea and in

the Arctic Sea and with global climate change. Resources and territories are vital

needs that have to be shared as commons, not things to be divided or monopolized. So

the key issues are power sharing and resource sharing.

As for the TPP, China and the US have a lot to discuss. For instance, the South China

Sea, the Arctic passages, investment barriers, cyber warfare, intellectual property and

more. All of these questions revolve around mutual trust and future intentions. A

broad agreement of power sharing is the only way to avoid warfare and conflicts.

Reporter: Do you have any suggestions to strengthen the cooperation

between the two countries and improve bilateral relationship? What’s the

major cooperation fields and cooperation direction?

Robert Bianchi: China and the United States can improve bilateral relations by

negotiating mutually beneficial pacts on investment and trade, including joint ventures

in both countries that build on their leading positions in information sciences, finance,

higher education, mass transportation, and renewable energy. They can take the

initiative in managing and safeguarding contested and endangered global commons

that are vital to the peace and prosperity of all peoples, particularly the environment,

the oceans and sea lanes, scarce energy and natural resources, and outer space. These

ventures would require Chinese and American societies to change their perceptions of

themselves and one another—to move from mistrust and arms races toward

partnerships that offer their combined talents to the service of the entire planet.

Reporter: In one of your selected works, (Silk Roads and Great Games:

Prelude to Global Governance or Great Power Conflict?), you mentioned

that ”No matter how much Beijing hopes that its initiatives will promote

harmony and stability, they will also generate division and turbulence that

endanger its interests abroad and its well-being at home.” Would you please

tell us what kind of challenge China is going to face? And do you have any

proposals to help ease these tensions between China and international

community?

Robert Bianchi: China will be confronted with more risks abroad. China will

face more criticism of Chinese business operations by labor unions, by

environmentalists, by citizens’ groups, and other business rivals. These problems

can influence the domestic situation of China as well. Because there are so many

challenges and problems, I think China, the West and the Islamic world will need

to bargain more seriously as their destinies intersect. The kind of bargaining I

have in mind is an agreement for sharing resources and benefits. If we can agree

that the benefits of natural resources would be shared more fairly in the societies

where they originate, then we would have a much more stable and fair system and

a more peaceful world. Many of the conflicts between the great powers and the

revolutions and civil wars in the Islamic world and the areas of the Silk Road are

largely attributable to injustice and unfairness in distributing the benefits of

natural resources. In other words, a successful negotiation would yield

concessions about sharing power and resources as well as guaranteeing access to

resources.

Reporter: Connectivity is integral to the building of the Belt and Road. It

includes not only the physical connection of infrastructures, the soft

connection of rules and regulations, but also the connection between people.

Islamic countries along the belt and road are critical and crucial, and they

often become the hot topics due to their significant geographic position and

unique culture. What’s your view about that? And do you have any

suggestions to encourage a multi-dimensional connectivity between China

and the Islamic countries?

Robert Bianchi: That’s exactly what I am driving at: we need to talk more about

social participation, the spiritual and emotional dimensions. The missing element

of the Silk Road initiative is that it’s too hard wired. There is too much emphasis

on bullet trains and seaports and not enough emphasis on social organization and

popular participation.

Reporter: More specifically, what kind of practical measures can we take to

tackle the crisis exists in middle east, especially Iran, Israel, Iraq and

Afghanistan? What’s the role of China in addressing these issues and in

Islamic globalization?

Robert Bianchi: China can adopt a more active mediating role in managing and

eventually resolving many Middle Eastern crises. This requires applying Chinese

diplomatic talents to encourage compromises on three levels

simultaneously—between China and other great powers, between regional rivals

locked in stalemates and proxy wars, and within deeply divided nations that

depend on external assistance to end and recover from civil wars and ongoing

revolutions. In order to become an effective mediator, China would need to limit

its military involvement and assistance to United Nations peacekeeping missions,

emergency rescues of Chinese citizens, and humanitarian support. China will

have to try to build some kind of understanding and cooperation with US and

Russia. All of these great powers will have to work together to deal with the

turmoil in the Islamic world if we are to avoid repetition of ongoing tragedies in

Iraq, Syria, and Libya.