FTTH Council Europe Panorama & Forecast · 2019-03-12 · FTTH Council Europe –Panorama &...
Transcript of FTTH Council Europe Panorama & Forecast · 2019-03-12 · FTTH Council Europe –Panorama &...
FTTH Council Europe – Panorama & ForecastMarket at September 2018 & Forecast by 2020 & 2025
FTTH Council Europe Conference – March 14th 2019 - Amsterdam
Roland Montagne
Principal Analyst
+33 6 80 85 04 80
AgendaAgenda
1. Study Background
2. General overview and main trends
3. Leading countries
4. European Ranking
5. Conclusion – Key outputs – Global Ranking
6. FTTH Forecast for Eueope
Methodology
ACTIONS
Results
▪ Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council Europe – 17th edition
▪ Provide a complete summary of the status of FTTH/B in Europe at Sept. 2018
Bottom-up methodology
Scope
• Analysis of 39 countries
• Data per player for FTTH/B and other fibre-based architectures
• Key parameters study: technical, financial, business model, figures
• Desk research
• Direct contacts with leading players and IDATE partners within countries
• Information exchange with FTTH Council Europe members
• Both quantitative and qualitative data
• Market status in the country
• Strategic approach of involved players
Methodology
As at September 2018 in EU39*:
▪ 59.6 million FTTH/B subscribers
▪ Almost 160 million FTTH/B Homes Passed
FTTH/B figures as at September 2018
>x4
>x6Subscriber evolution
Homes Passed evolutionFTTH Council Europe scope at September 2018
Coverage rateEU28 : 36.4%EU39 : 46.4%
Take-up rateEU28 : 38.2%EU39 : 37.4%
(1) EU39 = EU28 (excl. Cyprus) + 4 CIS countries + Andorra, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey
(2) Cyprus was replaced by Macedonia at end-2012 because the FTTH/B market is much more developed in this country.
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
FTTH/B figures as at September 2018
EU28 countries
Covered
countries in
FTTH Panorama
11 16 20
3136
4552
60
42
64
77
108
126
140 149
160
September2010
September2012
September2013
September2014
September2015
September2016
September2017
September2018
Subscribers Homes Passed
FTTH/B market evolution in terms of Homes passed and Subscribers
(EU39)
39
countries
covered
Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)
Evolution of FTTH/B Subscribers (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39
▪ EU28 has a stronger position in the whole European region
▪ By Sept. 2018, half of FTTH/B deployments are performed inside of the EU28 countries, an increasing trend along the previous years
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39
Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)
45
6 8
1215
2024
30
711
1620
31
36
45
52
60
December2010
December2011
December2012
December2013
December2014
September2015
September2016
September2017
September2018
Total EU28 Total EU39
1523
3036
5157
6773
81
29
42
64
77
108
126
140149
160
December2010
December2011
December2012
December2013
December2014
September2015
September2016
September2017
September2018
Total EU28 Total EU39
Incumbents are taking a growing role in FTTH/B Initiatives
▪ Analysis of around 400 FTTH/B projects in EU39 at September 2018
▪ Around 55% of total Homes in the region have been passed by Alternative ISPs, and approx. 41% by incumbents (as compared to21% by incumbents in 2011)
▪ Municipalities/Local Authorities, along with utilities when appropriate, will remain those ones that will help ensure an exhaustivecoverage at term
41%
55%
4%
Breakdown of FTTH/B Sockets deployed by type of player (%)Data comparison between Dec. 2011 and Sept. 2018
21%
71%
8%
September 2018December 2011
Top European countries – Breakdown in terms of Sockets deployed
Russia1
Spain2
France3
Ukraine4
Total Sockets deployed: 71,435,000✓ Incumbents: 33,200,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 38,235,000
Total Sockets deployed: 43,234,160✓ Incumbents: 20,800,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 22,375,000✓ Municip./Utilities: 59,160
Total Sockets deployed: 39,201,000✓ Incumbents: 10,906,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 26,565,000✓ Municip./Utilities: 1,730,000
Total Sockets deployed: 10,765,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 10,765,000
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
5Romania
Total Sockets deployed: 9,124,750✓ Incumbents: 2,107,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 7,017,750
Incumbents are taking a growing role in FTTH/B Initiatives
General Ranking: FTTH/B Homes passed
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed over time (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018 Top 5 annual growth rates – Homes passed (in %)
Data from Sept. 2017 to Sept. 2018
+ 43.1 %
+ 40.5 %
+ 22.8 %
+ 17.4 %
+ 15.1 %
Italy
Poland
UK
Portugal
Germany0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mill
ions
Sept. 2015 Sept. 2016 Sept. 2017 Sept. 2018
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
17 countries
with more than
2m. HP
EU28 : 11
countries in the
Ranking
General Ranking: FTTH/B Sockets deployed*
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Sockets deployed (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mill
ion
s
Sept. 2015 Sept. 2016 Sept. 2017 Sept. 2018
18 countries with more than 2m. Optical sockets
*Total amount of FTTH/B optical sockets deployed by each player in a
country (may be higher than Homes Passed when homes are coveredby several players). Might lead to overlap situations
Top 5 annual growth rates – Sockets deployed (%)Data from Sept. 2017 to Sept. 2018
+ 77 %
+ 40.5 %
+ 36.9 %
+ 26.2 %
+ 22.8 %
Italy
Poland
France
Spain
UK
EU28 : 12 countries in the
Ranking
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
General Ranking: FTTH/B Coverage
FTTH/B coverage > 90%
FTTH/B coverage 70 – 90 %
FTTH/B coverage 50 – 70 %
FTTH/B coverage < 50 %
FTTH/B coverage* as at September 2018(* Homes passed / Households)
Coverage rate
EU28 : 36.4%EU39 : 46.4%
Andorra
99.9%
99.2%
Portugal
Spain
97.8%
Sweden
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Latvia
95.4%
96.4%
91%
91%
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
General Ranking: FTTH/B SubscribersGeneral Ranking: FTTH/B Subscribers
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Sept. 2015 Sept. 2016 Sept. 2017 Sept. 2018
+ 83.2 %
UK
+ 72.5 %
Italy
+ 36 %Poland
+ 35.1 %
France
+ 30.7 %
Spain
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions (million)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018
General Ranking: FTTH/B Take-up
FTTH/B take-up > 50%
FTTH/B take-up 30 – 40 %
FTTH/B take-up < 30 %
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
FTTH/B take-up 40 – 50 %
Take-up rateEU28 : 38.2%EU39 : 37.4%
Belarus
64.5%
FTTH/B take-up* as at September 2018(*Subscriptions / Homes Passed)
Andorra
61.4%
Romania
52.2%
Latvia
51.5%
51.2%Belgium
Netherlands
52.6%
European Ranking as at September 2018
▪ Includes countries of +200k Households in which FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total households
▪ Eastern Europe and Nordic countries are among the top of penetration ranks, mainly due to a proactive state intervention towards fibre expansion
▪ Some major European countries are lagging behind (except. Spain and Portugal) due to a predominance of copper-based technologies (VDSL, G.Fast) and/or cable networks (DOCSIS 3.0 / 3.1)
Penetration rates of European countries at September 2018(FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
United Kingdom
Austria
Croatia
Serbia
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Poland
Switzerland
Ukraine
Turkey
Macedonia
EU28
Czech Republic
Kazakhstan
Hungary
Denmark
Luxembourg
France
Netherlands
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Estonia
Bulgaria
Russia
Norway
Portugal
Romania
Belarus
Sweden
Spain
Lithuania
Latvia
FTTH subscribers
FTTB subscribers
UK is entering the
Ranking by Sept.
2018
Penetration rate
EU28 : 13.9%
Key outputs
Public involvement
• Public-private initiatives are the key trend of 2018: more and more involvements from publicauthorities (via subsidies and an adequate policy framework) to promote fibre expansionthroughout their country
• Progressive move towards fibre expansion in hard-to-reach areas: urban dense areas are wellcovered by fibre networks in Europe, the focus for public & private actors is now on remote areas.How to promote high-speed broadband access in these isolated areas?
• Pent Up Demand becoming clear: Seeing large pent up demand (high connection rates) in regionsnow just beginning large FTTH rollouts (UK / Italy)
• EU28 is Mobilizing for FTTH/B: EU28 now catching up and surpassing the growth trends seen acrossthe larger EU39
• EU39 region has reached almost 160 million homes with FTTH/B networks, representing a coverageof 46.4% of the total Homes
• Countries like Italy, Poland and UK have experienced strong growth, increasing their homes passedby more than 20%, as well as their subscribers by more than 36%
Regional Recap
Italy Poland UK
+ 43.1 % + 40.5 % + 22.8 %+ 83.2 %+ 72.5 % + 36 %
Subscribers Homes Passed Subscribers Homes Passed Subscribers Homes Passed
Global Ranking(*) at Sept. 2018 – Mature markets
FTTH/B Penetration rates worldwide at September 2018(FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)
GCC and APAC countries leading the ranking
(*) Includes countries of +200k Households in which FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total households
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Bulgaria
Russia
Norway
Portugal
Romania
Belarus
Vietnam
Sweden
Spain
Lithuania
Taiwan
Latvia
Uruguay
New Zealand
Mauritius
Japan
Hong Kong
South Korea
China
Singapore
Qatar
UAE
FTTH subscribers
FTTB subscribers
Global Ranking (*) at Sept. 2018 –Less than 30% penetration
Some European countries still lagging behind
*Includes countries of +200k Households in which FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total households
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Jordan
United Kingdom
Austria
Croatia
Serbia
Angola
Germany
Colombia
Argentina
Ireland
Italy
Brazil
Puerto Rico
South Africa
Poland
Kuwait
Switzerland
Chile
Oman
Ukraine
Turkey
Macedonia
Canada
United States
Ecuador
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
Czech Republic
Kazakhstan
Australia
Hungary
Jamaica
Denmark
Trinidad and Tobago
Luxembourg
France
Netherlands
Malaysia
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Estonia
FTTH subscribers
FTTB subscribers
FTTH/B figures as at September 2018Forecast study – Factors taken into account
• Strategic plans from telecom players towards high-speed broadband enhancement
• Willingness to provide public funds
• Municipality/utility players can accelerate fibre development in remote areas, where private operators don’t have any incentives to deploy
• Impact of cable operators switching to FTTH/B to gain market advantages
• Impact of mobile broadband enhancement
• Green-field housing and systematic deployment of FTTH in any new build housing
Supply criteria
• Impact of infrastructure costs
• Impact of copper-based DSL improvements with new emerging variants, such as G.Fast.
• Impact of cable-based networks with DOCSIS 3.1
• Regulatory changes at European and national level to create a common commitment to FTTH
• Impact of macroeconomic environment and economical trends
Others
• Broadband services take-up since average speeds continue to rise for households
• Data consumption keeps growing due to an intensive use of video content, high-definition streaming which demand high bandwidth capacity
• People in rural areas still not covered by high-speed connections would like to be connected to NGN
Demand criteria
Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionPositive criteria
Regulatory framework and public incentives to promote FTTH deployments (ex. Gigabit Society targets set for 2025) 1
Governments have been revising their Digital Infrastructure strategy to focus on Fibre and 5G leading to higher availability of public funds dedicated to enhancing fibre-based networks2
Progressive switch-off for copper-based infrastructure and move towards FTTH networks3Data demands and video content continue to growth leading to higher bandwidth and lower latency needs (Resilience, symmetricity of Bandwidth)4
Both incumbents and alternative ISPs shifting their core business towards FTTH5Municipalities/Utilities pushing to expand fibre networks in remote areas where not always economically viable for private players6
Fibre densification driven by 5G deployment & cost savings from fibre-5G convergence7
Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionNegative impacts
Regulatory framework and public incentives to promote FTTH deployments (ex. Gigabit Society targets set for 2025) 1Copper-based DSL & Cable improvements with new emerging variants could delay FTTH enhancement1Potential risk of mobile 5G broadband technology delaying FTTH in economically non-viable areas2Deployment costs are still very high for FTTH technologies (however costs are following a downward trend YoY)3
Non-feasible business model for isolated areas4Some initiatives are facing administrative barriers that are delaying fibre expansion in areas not yet covered (right of ways)5
MethodologyForecast study – Individual analysis of 15 European countries
Top 15 countries by Homes passed as at Sept. 2018
EU39 countries covered in FTTH Panorama
Bulgaria
France
Germany
Italy
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
Ukraine
UK
MethodologyEuropean FTTH/B Forecasts (2012-2025)
FTTH/B Subscribers Forecasts (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39
6 812
1520
2430
3947
56
68
82
97
109
16 20
3136
4552
60
71
83
97
114
132
152
168
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total EU28 Total EU39
30 3651 57
67 7381
92104
115130
144155
166
6477
108
126140
149160
174189
203
220237
250263
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total EU28 Total EU39
European FTTH/B Forecasts (2012-2025)
FTTH/B Take-up Rates Forecasts (Subs over Homes Passed, in %)Comparison EU28 / EU39
20.3% 21.3%24.1%
26.4%
30.2%33.4%
37.0%
42.0%45.2%
49.0%
52.7%
57.1%
62.5%65.6%
25.7% 26.2%28.5% 28.9%
32.0%34.8%
37.4%40.7%
44.2%
48.0%51.8%
55.9%
60.6%63.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs / HP EU28 Subs / HP EU39
2019 should be a
turning point
MethodologyTop 15 Countries by FTTH/B Homes Passed in 2020 & 2025
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed (in million homes)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
2025 ForecastsEU28 : ~166m FTTH H.P.EU39 : ~263m FTTH H.P.
% Evolution 2018 / 2020
+2%
+33%
+0.5%
+11%
+81%
+27%
+184%
+12%
+62%
+5%
+44%
+4%
+40%
+12%
+3%
2020 Forecasts 2025 Forecasts% Evolution 2018
/ 2025
+6%
+858%
+81%
+230%
+551%
+2%
+86%
+24%
+169%
+29%
+112%
+9%
+11%
+35%
+6%
MethodologyTop 15 Countries by FTTH/B Subscribers in 2020 & 2025
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions (million)
2020 Forecasts
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
2025 ForecastsEU28 : ~109m FTTH Subs.EU39 : ~168m FTTH Subs.% Evolution 2018
/ 2020
+20%
2025 Forecasts
+33%
+63%
+31%
+47%
+90%
+43%
+171%
+50%
+67%
+74%
+118%
+306%
+48%
+22%
% Evolution 2018 / 2025
+78%
+5567%
+233%
+92%
+1006%
+760%
+190%
+237%
+82%
+261%
+527%
+170%
+96%
+202%
+73%
Top 15 Countries by Household penetration
European ranking in terms of Household penetration Subscriptions / Households (in %)
24.8%
28.2%
31.6%
33.2%
35.5%
42.5%
53.0%
61.2%
62.6%
69.9%
70.3%
71.7%
81.0%
83.2%
90.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Germany
Turkey
Poland
Italy
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Bulgaria
Russia
France
Netherlands
Romania
United Kingdom
Sweden
Spain
Portugal
Penetration forecast in 2025
EU28 : 46.2%EU39 : 44.7%
Penetration forecast in 2020
EU28 : 17.3%EU39 : 20.4%
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
2020 Forecasts 2025 Forecasts
FTTH / FTTB architecture
Positive FTTH evolution : Fibre closer to end-users by 2025
57.8%
42.2%
FTTH FTTB
2020 Forecasts
55.6%
44.4%
FTTH FTTB
FTTH/B at Sept. 2018
63.8%
36.2%
FTTH FTTB
2025 Forecasts
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
FTTH Architecture & Technology trends
FTTH / FTTB architecture
Positive FTTH evolution : Fibre closer to end-users by 2025
2020 ForecastsMDU / SDU ratio at
Sept. 2018
72.1%
27.9%
MDU SDU
70.6%
29.4%
MDU SDU
67.2%
32.8%
MDU SDU
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
2025 Forecasts
FTTH Architecture & Technology trends
MDU / SDU ratio
Evolution towards the delivery of individualized fibre services by 2025
Key conclusions
▪ Public incentives towards fibre-based technologies will accelerate FTTH growth throughout Europe
▪ Some major private players will be migrating from copper-based and cable-based architectures to full-fibre solutionsin the coming years (e.g. BT in UK / Deutsche Telekom in Germany). Certainly, these substantial investments will be akey enabler of growth.
▪ Delayed responses by incumbents have led to increased investment in alternative FTTH operators, triggeringaccelerated network builds by the incumbent (UK, Italy)
▪ More agreements to deploy FTTH services between private players, utilities companies and local authorities areevolving towards a convergent portfolio where different services can be provided using the same infrastructure(telecom services, smart cities solutions and utilities)
▪ Based on recent announcements, 5G will be a key factor for the promotion of fibre deployments and therefore, itwill boost investments from public and private players.
▪ Evolution from previous years have showed that cable-based and copper-based ISPs have started to diversify itscore technologies towards fibre. Certainly, many of these players have implemented full fibre solutions and it canbe appreciated that FTTH services are now part of its service portfolio.
1GROWTH
2BUSINESS
EVOLUTION
3TECHNO-
SYMBIOSIS
Key conclusions
Thank you for your attention!
www.ftthcouncil.eu
Roland Montagne
Principal Analyst
+33 6 80 85 04 80