f&s My Lng Outlook Oct2011

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Malaysia LNG Outlook

Energy & Power SystemsAsia Pacific


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Understanding LNG Demand

Table of Contents

Malaysia LNG Outlook

Investments on LNG Infrastructure

1

2

Technology developments and shippingcompanies preferences

3

2


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Malaysia Natural Gas Production and Consumption

1

Natural Gas Domestic Production and Consumption

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

BCM

66.5

35.7

3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Consumption

Production

Source: Frost & Sullivan


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Malaysia - Natural Gas Reserves

1

Petronas and PSC Partners participate in upstreamoperations

38 Gas Producing Fields

TCF East Coast ofPeninsular

OffshoreSarawak

OffshoreSabah

Deepwater fields to be developed

4

Malaysia

AssociatedNaturalGas

8.4 3.4 1.3

Non-Associated

25.2 37.5 6.7

Total 33.6 40.9 8.0

Offshore

Sarawak

49.5%

East Coast of

Peninsular

Malaysia40.7%

Offshore Sabah

9.6%

Source: Petronas


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Setting the Stage for Competitive Gas Supply Market

1

Midstream Participants

Downstream Participants With the construction of regasification terminals,

Petronas is setting the stage for other suppliers to

LNG Complex

LNG Export Terminal

Peninsular Gas PipelineSystem

Petronas subsidiaries andJV Partners

Petronas to maintain its exportcontracts to the Far East.

Infrastructure Outlook

GMB

12.6%

PGB

87.4%

5

penetrate the monopoly market Any party can bring in LNG and supply gas to

Tenaga Nasional Bhd or other customers

MMScfD

2010PGB 2178

GMB 315

Total 2493

Petronas Gas Bhd (PGB)

and Gas Malaysia Bhd(GMB)

Gas pipelines

Gas Supply in 2010

Source: Petronas, Frost & Sullivan


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Gas Consumption by End Users

1

Transport, 0.8%Residential &

Commercial,

0.1%

Self-generation,

4.1% Non-

Energy,

8.0%

Industrial,

33.3%

Power

Stations,

53.7%

6

Gas Consumption by End Users, Malaysia (2010)Total Consumption: 35.7 BCM

Source: Suruhanjaya Tenaga


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Gas Consumption: Power Sector

1

30

40

50

60

70

80

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

74%

45%

%

7

Power Generation Fuel Mix

0

10

20

2002 2010 2020 2030

Others

Government's move todiversify fuel mix and relianceon coal

Increase in share of coal Decrease in share of gas

Source: Gas Malaysia


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Industrial Consumption: Industry locations are near the gas pipeline

1

Kedah26 Industrial Estates

Palau Pinang13 Industrial Estates

Perak33 Industrial Estates

Pahang18 Industrial Estates

Terengganu21 Industrial Estates

Kelantan8 Industrial Estates

Perlis5 Industrial Estates

8

Source: Gas Malaysia & Frost & Sullivan

e eng

Selangor29 Industrial Estates

Federal Territory23 Industrial Estates

Negeri Sambilan17 Industrial Estates

Melaka17 Industrial Estates

Johor31 Industrial Estates

Malaysian Rain Forestdominates internal regions


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Understanding LNG DemandThe Malaysian industrial estates contain all industry sectors and there are limited specificindustry clusters all clusters are close to gas pipeline

1

Key to location of clusters:

Cement

Iron & Steel

Petrochemical

Fertilisers

ChemorCeramic Park,

Perak

Foundry Park,Perak

Furniture VillagePerak

Geben

Kertih PetrochemicalComplex

Proposed Halal FoodIndustrial Park

Kedah

PetronasFertilizerComplex

9

Glass

Ceramics

Food

Paper & WoodTanjung-Langsat

Petrochemical andSteel Complex

Petrochemical

Complex

RubberIndustrial Area,

Gombak

Source: Gas Malaysia & Frost & Sullivan


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Subsidies to be eventually removed for Power and Industrial consumers

1

Gas Subsidy(in US$ Billion)

FY 2010 FY 2009 % Change CumulativeSubsidy

since 1997

Power Sector 3.7 4.2 (11.8%) 28.4

TNB 1.6 1.8 (7.4%) 12.2

Independent Power Producers (IPP) 2.0 2.4 (15.1%) 16.2

10

Non Power Sector Including small industrial,

commercial, residential users and NGV 2.5 2.2 +13.2% 9.8

Total Gas Subsidy 6.2 6.4 (3.1%) 38.2

The electric utilities and industries in Peninsular Malaysia are likely to pay market prices for LNG imports

Source: Petronas


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Natural Gas Production and Consumption Forecast

1

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

BCM

88.5

52.3

11

0

10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Consumption

Production

Production and Consumption Forecast

Production expected to reach 88.5 BCM by 2020Consumption expected to be 52.3 BCM in 2020



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22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5


LNG Exports

1

MMTPA

China, 1.19

Japan, 13.89

Korea, 4.96

Kuwait, 0.13

Taiwan, 2.96

LNG Exports from Malaysia, MMTPA (2010)Total Exports: 23.13 MMTPA

20.5

21.0

21.5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

12

China, 0.81India, 0.19

Japan, 12.84

Korea, 5.87

Kuwait, 0.07

Taiwan, 2.83

LNG Exports from Malaysia, MMTPA (2009)

Total Exports: 22.61 MMTPA

Source: Petronas


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LNG Exports Forecast

1

MMTPA

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

27.026.0

23.1

13

15.0

17.0

2011 2015 2020

LNG export forecast to be 26 MMTPA in 2020. Capacity expansion forecast due to increased productionfrom deep water fields and development of associated infrastructure. Some of the infrastructure

development includes:

Sabah Oil and Gas Terminal (SOGT) andSabah-Sarawak Gas Pipeline (SSGP)The 500km SSGP will transport gas from the SOGT in Kimanis to Bintulu for processing into LNG at thePETRONAS LNG Complex for export. The pipeline system also has provisions for future domestic

consumption in Sabah and Sarawak.



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LNG Imports Sources

1

From open market

Import Contracts

Petronas has a 27.5% stake in the Santos-led coalseam gas-based Gladstone LNGproject in the eastern Australian state of Queensland and has a 20-year contract to buy3.5 million mt/year of LNG from the project

Petronas has signed a contract with France's GDF Suez for the supply of 2.5 million mt ofLNG over three-and-a-half ears. Shi ments will start from Au ust 2012

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Qatargas has signed an agreement with Petronas to supply the Malaysian company with1.5 million mt/year of LNG, under a long-term contract. The agreement is for 20 years,with the first LNG cargo to be delivered in 2013.

Source: Industry Sources


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LNG Imports Forecast

1

4

5

6

7

8

MMTPA

15

0

1

2

3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Imports to start in 2012

LNG imports forecast to reach 7.4 MMTPA by 2017



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Module Original LNG DesignProduction Capacity(MTPA)

MLNG 3 Nos(module 1, 2 & 3)

8.4

MLNG Dua 3 Nos(Module 4, 5, 6)

7.8


Existing LNG Infrastructure

2

Petronas LNG Complex, Bintulu, Sarawak

Three LNGPlants

MLNG Dua capacity increased by 1MTPA in2010 by de-bottlenecking.

Increased production achieved by the up-rating of power available to the main

MLNG Tiga 2 Nos

(Module 7 & 8)

6.8

16

All modules are based on the propane precooled mixed refrigerant process utilising the Air Products & Chemicals Inc.(APCI) main cryogenic heat exchanger (MCHE)

MLNG, completed in 1980, uses steam turbine drivers for the main refrigerant compressors, and sea water cooling MLNG Dua, completed in 1995, uses gas turbine drivers for the main refrigerant compressors, and hybrid sea water and

air cooling. MLNG Tiga, completed in 2004, uses gas turbine drivers for the main refrigerant compressors, and air cooling. The

facilities share common LNG rundown, storage tank and export facilities. The Petronas LNG complex, including power generation and utilities systems, is run by MLNG as an integrated facility.

refrigeration C3 and MCR systems and the

addition of a new end flash unit

One LNG Export Terminal: MLNG Dua Terminal

Source: MLNG, Petronas


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Existing LNG Infrastructure

2

LNG Complex: Designer and Contractor Details

MLNG DuaFor the MLNG Dua plant, the project specification was prepared by the same technical consultant, incorporating the latestdevelopment concepts and improvement based on the experience gained from other LNG plants worldwide. The

Malaysia LNGThe MLNG plant was designed by Shell Internationale Petroleum Maatschappij (SIPM), the technical services consultantfor the project; and constructed by a consortium comprising JGC Corporation of Japan and Kellogg Overseas

Construction Corporation/Pullman Kellogg of the United States of America

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MLNG TigaThe MLNG Tiga Plant's EPCC Contractor comprised Consortium members JGC Corporation (JGC), Kellogg Brown &Root, Inc (KBR), Sime Engineering Sdn Bhd (Sime), JGC (M) Sdn Bhd (JMSB) and Kellogg (M) Sdn Bhd (KMSB).

, ,

Engineering Sdn Bhd, JGC (M) Sdn Bhd and Kellogg (M) Sdn Bhd.

Source: MLNG, Petronas


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Malacca LNG Import Terminal Under Construction

2

Project Owner: Petronas Gas BhdProject Status: ExecutionProject Value: US$ 952 millionProject Completion date: Q3 2012

FSU conversion

MISC LNG Carrier Tenaga Satu being convertedby MMHE, Malaysia

The project comprises of:

Two floating storage units to receive and

1

18

MISC LNG Carrier Tenaga Empat beingconverted by Keppel Shipyard, Singapore

EPCIC Contract for the LNG Regasification Unit,Island Berth and Subsea Pipeline awarded in Jan2011 to a consortium of Perunding Ranhill WorleySdn Bhd and Muhiubbah Engineering (M) Sdn BhdThe contract is valued at US$ 352 million with a70:30 split in favour of Ranhill, the consortiumleader

An island jetty and regasification units, aswell as subsea and onshore pipelines totransport the regasified LNG to Malaysia's

Peninsular Gas Utilization pipelinenetwork

The regasification facility will havemaximum throughput capacity of 3.8million mt/year

store LNG

2

Source: Petronas Gas


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Pengerang LNG Import Terminal Planning Stage

2

Second LNG import and regasification facility at Pengerang in the state of Johor

To be owned by Petronas

To be part of Petronas US$20 billion Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development(Rapid) project.

Onshore facility with 3.8 MMTPA capacity

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Source: News Reports


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LNG Shipping Company - MISC Bhd

2

MISC Bhd is a Petronas linked shipping and engineering company

Current Fleet Charter-in Newbuildings

LNG Carriers 29 - -

Petroleum Tankers 53 30 11

20

Containerships 16 14 2

Others (Dry Bulk &LPG)

3 1 -

Current Facilities NewConversions

Offshore FloatingFacilities

12 (FSPO 5, FSU5, MOPU 2)

1 -

The companys fleet profile as of 1 October2011. Source: MISC Bhd

MISC owns and operates 8% of the global LNGCarriers Fleet (2010)

Source: MISC


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MISCs LNG Fleet

2

Carrier Name

Containment

System Country of Build Shipbuilder Capacity, m3 Delivery

Seri Balquis GT NO 96 Japan Mitsubishi Nagasaki 152,000 Dec-08

Seri Balhaf GT NO 96 Japan Mitsubishi Nagasaki 152,000 Sep-08

Seri Bijaksana GT NO 96 Japan Mitsubishi Nagasaki 152,300 Feb-08

Seri Begawan GT NO 96 Japan Mitsubishi Nagasaki 152,300 Dec-07

Seri Ayu TZ Mk. III Korea Samsung 145,000 Oct-07

Arranged by Delivery Year Newest toOldest

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Seri Bakti GT NO 96 Japan Mitsubishi Nagasaki 152,300 Apr-07

Seri Angkasa TZ Mk. III Korea Samsung 145,000 Feb-07

Seri Anggun TZ Mk. III Korea Samsung 145,000 Nov-06

Seri Amanah TZ Mk. III Korea Samsung 145,000 Mar-06

Seri Alam TZ Mk. III Korea Samsung 138,000 Oct-05

Puteri Mutiera Satu GT NO 96 Japan Mitsui Chiba 137,100 Apr-05

Puteri Firuz Satu GT NO 96 Japan Mitsubishi Nagasaki 137,100 Sep-04

Puteri Zamrud Satu GT NO 96 Japan Mitsui Chiba 137,100 Jan-04

Puteri Nilam Satu GT NO 96 Japan Mitsubishi Nagasaki 137,100 Sep-03

Puteri Delima Satu GT NO 96 Japan Mitsui Chiba 137,100 Apr-02

Puteri Intan Satu GT NO 96 Japan Mitsubishi Nagasaki 137,100 Dec-01

Source: MISC


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MISCs LNG Fleet

2

Carrier Name

Containment

System Country of Build Shipbuilder Capacity, m3 Delivery

Aman Hakata TZ Mk. III Japan NKK Tsu 18,800 Nov-98

Puteri Firuz GT NO 96 France Atlantique 130,405 May-97Aman Sendai TZ Mk. III Japan NKK Tsu 18,928 May-97

Puteri Zamrud GT NO 96 France Atlantique 130,405 May-96

Puteri Nilam GT NO 96 France Atlantique 130,405 Jun-95

Puteri Delima GT NO 96 France Atlantique 130,405 Jan-95

Arranged by Delivery Year Newest toOldest

22

Puteri Intan GT NO 96 France Atlantique 130,405 Aug-94

Aman Bintulu TZ Mk. III Japan NKK Tsu 18,928 Oct-93

Tenaga Satu GT NO 88 France Dunkerque 130,000 Sep-82

Tenaga Tiga GT NO 88 France Dunkerque 130,000 Dec-81

Tenaga Lima GT NO 88 France La Seyne 130,000 Sep-81

Tenaga Dua GT NO 88 France Dunkerque 130,000 Aug-81

Tenaga Empat GT NO 88 France La Seyne 130,000 Mar-81

MISC has a total of 29 LNG Carriers in its fleet. Of these, two (Tenaga Satu and Tenaga Empat) arebeing converted to FSUs for the Malacca LNG Terminal

Source: MISC


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MISC Fleet By Containment System and Builder

2

GT No 88, 5

GT No 96, 16

TZ Mk. III, 8 Mitsubishi

Nagasaki , 8

Samsung , 5

La Seyne , 2

NKK Tsu , 3

Mitsui

Chiba , 3

23

,

MISC Fleet: Containment System (Total 29LNG Carriers)

MISC Fleet: Builder (Total 29 LNG Carriers)

Source: MISC


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Technology Developments and Shipping Companies Preferences

FLNG Development in Malaysia

3

Mustang in joint venture with PETRONAS and MISC to develop FLNG solutions

Objective to develop integrated floating LNG liquefaction, storage, and offloading solutions, usingMustang's LNG Smart liquefaction technologies

The joint venture is owned by Petronas (60%), MISC (30%), and Mustang (10%)

The first project for the joint venture will be the development of the front-end engineering design(FEED) for a floating LNG vessel, to be located offshore Malaysia.

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The project is expected to achieve first gas from a floating LNG FPSO facility in 2013.

The joint venture hopes to assist with full project development of gas reserves in Malaysia andother countries worldwide, using floating LNG FPSO solutions. The joint venture will also focuson the adaptation, enhancement, and development of floating LNG technologies, and projectimplementation.

PETRONAS will provide assistance in gas field sourcing and the marketing of LNG MISC will provide assistance in LNG shipping fabrication; and Mustang will provide engineering design, procurement, and project management services

related to LNG liquefaction processes and gas pre-treatment for topsides facilities

Source: News Reports


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Best in Class LNG Carriers in Qatar Gas Fleet

3

Q-Flex and Q-Max LNG Carriers Each ship has a cargo capacity of between 210,000 and266,000 cubic metres

These large vessels have many innovative features to maximise cargo deliveries and to ensure thehighest levels of safety and reliability.

Among them are: Membrane type cargo containment system Twin engines and shafts to ensure maximum propulsion safety and reliability, with reduced

environmental footprint

25

Slow speed diesel engines which are more thermally efficient than steam turbines and therefore

burn less fuel, which will produce 30 percent lower overall emissions compared to traditionalexisting LNG carriers.

Cargo re-liquefaction plants return cargo boil off to the cargo tanks and therefore maximise thecargo outturn at the discharge port.

Underwater coatings using the latest technology silicon anti-fouling system, which not onlyenhances the speed and performance of the vessel, but is also beneficial to the marine

environment since it does not release any biocides into the sea to prevent marine growth on thehull. Fire fighting specifications include combinations of Hi-Ex foam, Hi-fog water systems and safer

and cleaner fire extinguishing agents to eliminate the need for CO2

Source: Qatar Gas


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Next Generation LNG Carrier from Mitsubishi

3

Mitsubishi Heavy Industry has launched EXTREM, the next generation Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)carrier, featuring Moss-type LNG containment system

The EXTREM combines the advantages of Moss-type carriers with energy-saving features and higherLNG cargo transport capacity.

The EXTREM is a newly developed Sayanedo series carrier, featuring a peapod-shaped continuouscover for the Moss spherical tanks which is integrated with the ships hull instead of conventionalhemispherical cover

26

The new design provides a greater structural efficiency, plus a reduction in size and weight, resulting in

improvement in fuel consumption as well as compatibility with LNG terminal and its maintainability. Thenew design will be used as the hull reinforced material for overall strength on the ship

The EXTREM measure 288 m in length , 49.0 m in width, 26.0 m in depth and 11.5 m in draft. The shiphas cargo tank capacity of 155,000 m3 using four Moss-type tanks

Better compatibility with major terminals in Japan and other countries in view of cargo manifold andgangway landing arrangement.

Source: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries


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Containment System: Moss Type versus Others

3

ContainmentSystem

Fleet Capacity,m3

No. of LNGCarriers

Moss 14,392,719 108

GT No 96 16,590,390 106

TZ Mark III 16,899,108 102

LNG Carriers Fleet by Containment System, 2010 Moss containment system leads the LNG carrier

market in units of LNG carrier. However, TZ Mark IIIleads from fleet capacity perspective

In the period 2000 to 2010, about 251 LNG carriers

were ordered, out of which membrane containmentsystem accounted for 208 carriers or about 81%

Prior to 2000, majority of LNG carriers built werebased on Moss containment system

27

TZ Mark I 920,211 10

GT No 85 1,016,328 8

GT No 82 410,251 7

GT No 88 916,000 7

CS 1 381,100 3

Esso 82,000 2

IHI SPB 179,760 2

Total 51,787,867 355

There are only two LNG carriers with IHI SPBsystem, however this container system is preferredfor LNG FPSO, and LNG carriers for Arctic Oceanroute despite its high cost

Source: Frost & Sullivan,Industry Sources


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Technology Developments and Shipping Companies PreferencesConsiderable Shift from Moss Containment System to GTT Membrane ContainmentSystem

32%

30%2%

2%

2%

27%

3%1% 0% 1%

Moss GT No 96 GT No 85 GT No 82 GT No 88

LNG Carrier Fleet by Containment System, 2010

42%

8%

50%

GT No 96

Moss

TZ MK III

LNG Carriers Under Construction byContainment System, 2010

3

Membrane containment system is preferred due to the following benefits over Moss containment system Less capital investment

Less operating expenditure

The weakness, in GTT is sloshing. To solve this problem, GTT provides new membrane technology that reducessloshing

In 2010, only 3 LNG carriers were being built with Moss containment system; All these three were by Kawasaki HeavyIndustries (KHI) of Japan

Implication for a related raw material supply industry: Aluminum plate is used only for Moss and SPBcontainment system, so its demand has gone down considerably. Demand of aluminum plates depend on growth ofLNG carriers for Arctic route, and growth of LNG FPSO

sso

Source: Frost & Sullivan 28


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Selection Criteria for Containment Systems

For LNG ships the choice is largely (if not entirely) driven by economics.

Shipbuilders are generally standardized on a specific containment system (only Mitsubishi and Hyundai presently canoffer either MOSS or Mark III Membrane).

The vessel owner will generally go through a tendering process, allowing both MOSS and membrane designs tocompete. The shipowner and LNG project company decide on the containment system

Selection Criteria

3

For FLNG the owners role is more pronounced, though emphasis is still on functional requirements rather than

specifying a specific containment system

Selection Criteria for Shipbuilders

Reliability, Past Experience, Price and Payment Terms

Availability of delivery slots is an important factor

The role of shipyards in terms of financing is generally limited.


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Decision Makers

Emergence of Chinese LNG Carrier Builders

The development of LNG ship construction in China has been very much government driven, imposing domesticLNG import by Chinese built ships. This has increased the participation of Chinese builders in the market

Selection Criteria for suppliers Shipbuilders or shipowners decide on supplier

Performance record (quality or products, reliability of supplier, reputation of supplier)

Competitive Price

Production capacity

Technology Developments and Shipping Companies Preferences3

Who decides ?

Purchasing team and design team are involved in selecting suppliers, however, the final decision is made by thepurchasing team

For each LNG carrier project, a contract is developed between shipbuilder and supplier; Shipbuilders only procurewhat is needed for the project and keep inventory to the minimum


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Benchmarking LNG Carriers Operators

3

Process:

1. Measure and compare performance metrics betweenpeers2. Gap analysis3. Identify steps for improvement

Benchmarking is a well established business improvement tool in the oil and gas process industry

Operational Performance Metrics: Health & Safety

Operating Costs Ship Availability & Utilization Port Performance Cargo Management Personnel

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Benchmarking has not yet penetrated the LNG carriers businessLNG carriers fleet is increasing at a rapid pace. New Technology is being adoptedA third party external perspective can provide valuable input to operators

Result:

Improved business performance

Participants are anonymous and thebenchmarking participants are onlyable to identify their own LNG carrierfleet in comparisons

Note: Shell Global Solutions developed the pilot benchmarking study for LNG CarriersSource: Frost & Sullivan


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Subbu Bettadapura

Director, EPS

[email protected]

+603-6207-1059

Thank you

Partnering with clients to create innovative growth strategies"

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f&s My Lng Outlook Oct2011

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