From Trout Creek to the IPCC: Linking Climate Change Scenarios, Adaptation and Sustainable...
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Transcript of From Trout Creek to the IPCC: Linking Climate Change Scenarios, Adaptation and Sustainable...
From Trout Creek to the IPCC: From Trout Creek to the IPCC: Linking Climate Change Scenarios, Linking Climate Change Scenarios,
Adaptation and Sustainable Adaptation and Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment
Stewart CohenAdaptation & Impacts Research Division (AIRD)Environment CanadaLocated at Dept. of Forest Resources ManagementUniversity of British Columbia
Participatory approach can help to build the science-policy bridge
Role of local experts (practitioners, stakeholders) in climate change impacts-adaptation research
– Local context (planning, decision-making)– Data, operational perspectives– Professional networks– Local governments
Experts become extension agents for local adaptationRole of research community changes from initiator of studies to resource for community-based assessments
Broadens base of investments in impacts-adaptation research
Potential for increased support for monitoring
Stakeholder Interest
•Regional development
•Jobs
•Liability
•Quality of life
Climate Information
•Forecasts
•Trends
•Scenarios
outreach
Climate change information flow to stakeholders?
Filter / Medium•Hydrograph•Crop Model
•Malaria Risk Model•Decision Support
Tool
Climate Information
•Forecasts
•Trends
•Scenarios
delivery
Translation; climate change science to climate change impacts
Climate information
•Forecasts•Trends•Scenarios
Filter / medium
•Hydrograph•Crop model•Malaria risk model•Decision support
tool
Practitioner interest
•Risk assessment•Design standards•Operating rules•Allocations
delivery translation
Climate Change: The Medium is the Message
……translation from climate science to practitioner interest
Filter / Medium•Hydrograph•Crop Model
•Malaria Risk Model•Decision Support
Tool
Stakeholder Interest
•Regional development
•Jobs
•Liability
•Quality of life
Practitioner Interest
•Risk Assessment
•Design Standards
•Allocations
Climate Information
•Forecasts
•Trends
•Scenarios delivery
tran
slat
ion
extension
policy
outreach
outreach
Participatory approach…link with practitioners (Cohen and Waddell, in press)
Building the science-policy bridge…
• Dialogue with local experts/practitioners as part of integration; beyond serving as an information source and outreach process
Okanagan climate change study team visit to Penticton Dam, June 2002
Okanagan Study Teams (1999-2007)• Stewart Cohen (P.I.) – Adaptation & Impacts
Research Division-EC, Institute for Resources Environment & Sustainability-UBC, Vancouver
• Denise Neilsen (P.I.2002-04), Scott Smith (P.I.2002-04), Grace Frank, Walter Koch – Pacific Agricultural Research Centre-AAFC, Summerland
• Younes Alila, Wendy Merritt* – Forest Resources Management, UBC (*now at Australian National University)
• Mark Barton, Roger McNeill, Bill Taylor, Dave Hutchinson, Wendy Avis – Pacific & Yukon Region-EC
• Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, James Tansey, Jeff Carmichael, Stacy Langsdale, Rachel Welbourn, Natasha Schorb, Jennifer Ardiel, Glen Hearns, Alex Russell, Aviva Savelson, Sharon Bennett, Charlie Wilson – IRES & SCARP, UBC
• Brian Symonds, B.C. MOE, Penticton• Bob Hrasko, Agua Consulting, Kelowna.• Barbara Lence, Civil Engineering, UBC• Craig Forster, U. Utah• Allyson Beall, Washington State University
Thanks to Andrew Reeder, RDOS (formerly City of Summerland); Toby Pike, Water Supply Association; Greg Armour, OBWB; Patrick Deakin, Town of Oliver; Phil Epp, BC MOE; Jillian Tamblyn, Okanagan Nations Alliance; Leah Hartley, RDCO; Peter Waterman, BC Fruit Growers Assoc. & City of Summerland; & many others.Supported by grants from the CCAF/CCIAP (#A206, A463/433, A846), Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa.
Study team (2002-04) & invited guests at team meeting,Summerland, June 2002
Okanagan Basin
•Area = 8200 km2
•Okanagan Valley = 160 km in length•80% of streams fully recorded •2003 drought – water shortage in Summerland
Population growth in Central Okanagan, North Okanagan and
Okanagan-Similkameen Regional Districts: 1941-2001(data from BC Stats and P.S. Ross & Partners; based on work by Shepherd)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Popula
tio
n Central Okanagan
North Okanagan
Okanagan-Similkameen
Floating Bridge Completed
Coquihalla Connector Completed
Trout Creek
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ula
ted
Dis
char
ge (
cum
ecs)
base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 B2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ula
ted
Dis
char
ge (
cum
ecs)
base90 s20cb2 s50cb2 s80cb2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO A2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sa2 s50sa2 s80sa2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO B2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sb2 s50sb2 s80sb2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY A2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20ha2 s50ha2 s80ha2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY B2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20hb2 s50hb2 s80hb2
Stream
flow S
cenarios for V
aseux C
reek (Merritt et
al.)
Trout Creek supply/demand CGCM2-B2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 50 100 150 200 250
Annual flow (m3 x 106)
Cro
p w
ate
r d
em
an
d (
m3x
10
6 ) Historic
2020s
2050s
2080s
Trout Creek supply/demand HadCM3-A2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 50 100 150 200 250
Annual flow (m3 x 106)
Cro
p w
ate
r d
em
an
d (
m3 x
10
6 ) Historic
2020s
2050s
2080s
Local defined drought – 30% average annual flow
Risks associated with water supply and demand in response to climate change (Neilsen et
al., 2004)
Maximum allowable demand – 2002 use
Costs of Adaptation Options in the Okanagan(McNeill, Hrasko, 2004)
Cost (CAN$/acre-ft.) Water saved or supplied
Irrigation scheduling: -large holdings $500 10%
-small holdings 835 10%
Trickle irrigation: -high demand areas 1500 30%
-medium demand areas 1666 30%
Metering: -lowest cost 1882 30%
-higher cost 2300-3400 20-30%
Public education: -large & medium communities 835 10%
Leak detection: -average 1567 10-15%
Storage: -lowest cost 600 limited
-medium-high cost 1000-1500 limited
Lake pumping: -lowest cost 648 0-100%
-low cost (no balancing) 1160 0-100%
-higher cost 2200-2700 0-100%
1 acre-ft. = 1233.5 m3; 1 m3 = 1000 litres
Demand Side Management Impact on Water DemandOliver, CGCM2 A2, Medium Population Growth
(Neale, 2006)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
800020
01
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
2037
2041
2045
2049
2053
2057
2061
2065
2069
Year
Wat
er D
eman
d (
ML
)
2001 Baseline
Current DSM
Education
Metering CUC
Metering IBR
XeriscapingHigh Eff Retrofit
Combined
Okanagan Inflows vs. Water Demands, HadCM3-A2 (source: Langsdale et al., 2006; in Cohen and Neale 2006)
30-Year Aggregated Supply-Demand Scenarios
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Historic 2020's 2050's
Simulation Period
Flo
w [
mcm
per
mo
nth
]
.
Total Inflow
Total Demand (Ag + Res + Instream)
Total Demand with Residential Adaptation
Dry-Year Aggregated Supply-Demand Scenarios
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Historic 2020's 2050's
Simulation Period
Flo
w [
mcm
per
mo
nth
] .
Total Inflow
Total Demand (Ag + Res + Instream)
Total Demand with Residential Adaptation
AVERAGE YEAR
DRY YEAR
• Incorporation of climate change into Trepanier Landscape Unit Water Management Plan
– Recommends demand management as first priority, along with supply augmentation, by 2050 if no climate change assumed, and by 2020 if climate change is assumed
Impact on Okanagan Water Management
Moving Beyond The Damage Report
an opportunity for participatory integrated assessment (PIA) & decision support….
+ =
Decision SupportModel
Technical Info & Data
Experience Based Knowledge &
Values
Preliminary sketch of decision model(Langsdale et al., 2006, 2007)
Okanagan
Surfacewater Supply
Precipitating on Lakes
Tributaries Inflowing Evaporating
Flowing Out of Basin
Human Use
DivertingAgricultural Demand
Residential Demand
C & I DemandU.S. Border
Input from some participants at Okanagan study model building workshop, April 2005 (Cohen & Neale, 2007)
2040-2069 case;Okanagan Lake stage; (1) No adaptation; (2) supplement with Okanagan Lake; no other adaptation
2040-2069 case;Okanagan Lake stage; (1) No adaptation;(2) agriculture & residential DSM adaptation, plus supplement with Okanagan Lake; no sockeye management
Columbia Basin highlighted among subregional cases from North America
(IPCC 2001; TAR, WG2, Ch. 15)
Okanagan Study Highlighted in IPCC 4AR
From Trout Creek to the IPCC, 1999-2007
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ula
ted
Dis
char
ge (
cum
ecs)
base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2
Trout Creek supply/demand HadCM3-A2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 50 100 150 200 250
Annual flow (m3 x 106)
Cro
p w
ate
r d
em
an
d (
m3 x
10
6 ) Historic
2020s
2050s
2080s
Dry-Year Aggregated Supply-Demand Scenarios
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Historic 2020's 2050's
Simulation Period
Flow
[mcm
per
mon
th]
.
Total Inflow
Total Demand (Ag + Res + Instream)
Total Demand with Residential Adaptation
Adaptation in the Okanagan and Columbia-Kootenay regions
• Okanagan Basin Water Board [www.obwb.ca]– Okanagan Watershed Stewardship Council– Okanagan Water Supply and Demand Study
• Columbia Basin Trust [www.cbt.org]– Communities Adapting to Climate Change
For further information on Okanagan climate change studies:
[email protected]@[email protected] [email protected]@gmail.com
Model and model guide: http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/aird
Reports:http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/airdhttp://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca
Licence / License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Canada License:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ca/
Cette création est mise à disposition sous un contrat Creative Commons:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ca/deed.fr_CA