28 March 2012 | Vol. 3, № 11.

From the Editor’s Desk

Dear FDI supporters,

Welcome to this week’s edition of the

Strategic Weekly Analysis. In the SWA this

week, we begin by looking at the interest

of the United States in using Australia’s

Cocos Islands as a base for surveillance

aircraft, together with greater use of the

HMAS Stirling naval base, near Perth.

Still in Australia, we turn our attention to

the lack of food and water knowledge

among Australian school students, before

moving overseas to report on the

worsening food security situation in

Swaziland and the World Water Forum,

held recently in Marseilles.

Next, on the subject of energy security,

FDI Associate Rizwan Zeb reports on the

latest problems confronting the Iran-

Pakistan gas pipeline project, before

looking at the danger posed to the

Nigerian energy sector by the Boko Haram

terrorist group.

Heading south, we investigate the latest

initiative from the South African Navy to

combat the growing threat of piracy along

the southern African coast.

We conclude by analysing the motivation

behind the involvement of two key

regional actors – Saudi Arabia and Qatar –

in the ongoing unrest in Syria.

Last week, FDI’s Global Food and Water

Crises Research Programme held

workshops in Sydney, Melbourne and

Canberra to discuss future potential

conflict points as a result of food and

water insecurity. It was a valuable

exercise in honing our research using the

expertise of our Associates. Keep an eye

out for the findings of this workshop,

which we hope to publish in the coming

weeks. We are grateful to all those who

participated in these workshops. If you

did not participate, but have some papers

that deal with the workshop topic, please

feel free to e-mail

gkleyn@futuredirections.org.au.

Major General John Hartley AO (Retd)

Institute Director and CEO

Future Directions International

*****

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US Interest Confirms Australian Strategic Importance in Indo-

Pacific

Background

According to the Washington Post, the United States is reportedly investigating the

possibility of using the Cocos Islands, in the north-eastern Indian Ocean, as a base for

surveillance aircraft. Also being considered is a greater use of the HMAS Stirling naval base,

located in Perth, and of a possible new facility at Brisbane. In context with the recent

agreement to rotate US Marines through Darwin, the growing interest confirms the

importance of Australia as the US looks to reorient if forces towards the Asia-Western Pacific

region.

Comment

The Cocos Islands comprise two atolls and 27 islands. Located some 2,950 kilometres north-

west of Perth and 1,272 kilometres south-west of Jakarta, Indonesia, the islands serve as a

refuelling stop for the Royal Australian Air Force’s Orion surveillance fleet.

As FDI noted in November 2011, the US interest follows a suggestion made at that time by

Defence Minister Stephen Smith that the Cocos Islands could, at some point in the future,

host joint US-Australian naval and air assets. While Mr Smith points out that any proposal to

use the Cocos Islands is likely to be well into the future, and that the Cocos airstrip in its

current condition is unsuitable for use by Global Hawk drones, it nonetheless highlights the

strategic importance of the archipelago.

For Washington, the ability to operate long-range surveillance drones capable of easily

reaching the South China Sea from the Cocos Islands would be an inestimable asset. The

current US base on the British Indian Ocean Territory atoll of Diego Garcia is much further

afield and is congested. While the American lease on the atoll comes up again in 2016, it

would be remarkable if London were not to renew it. Unlike Diego Garcia, any Cocos facility

would not be a naval base, although it would strengthen the US’ supply chains and logistics

facilities.

The Royal Australian Navy’s largest base, HMAS Stirling is located in the south-western

quadrant of the Indian Ocean. It, too, would complement a reoriented US force posture with

increased ship and submarine visits. It would offer US vessels in the Indian Ocean region a

facility at which to refuel, re-fit and conduct maintenance.

In view of the above – and the Darwin Marines rotation and the joint use of a possible new

naval facility at Brisbane – Australia’s strategic position at the confluence of the Indian and

Pacific Oceans is further validated. The Indo-Pacific nexus that Australia sits astride

represents the westernmost aspect of the US realignment.

While Australia is obviously keen on closer military ties with the US, as are other South-East

Asian states such as Vietnam and the Philippines, both of which have moved closer to

Washington, partly as a result of Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. Singapore, a

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long-standing US partner, is in negotiations with Washington to base of up to four littoral

combat ships in the city-state.

While any response from Beijing may verge on the predictable, the reaction from Jakarta

may be ambivalent. Indonesia, like Australia, is caught between its links with China, as a

large and growing trading partner, and its security and trade relations with the United

States. Mindful of the South China Sea disputes between China and a number of its fellow

ASEAN members, Indonesia does not wish to see South-East Asia become a theatre of great

power rivalry, or worse. The Darwin Marines deployment was initially greeted with concern

in Jakarta for that reason, although Foreign Marty Natalegawa and Defence Minister

Purnomo Yusgiantoro subsequently stated at the 15 March 2012 “2+2 Dialogue” with their

Australian counterparts that they had no problem with the Darwin initiative.

Although a drone deployment on the Cocos Islands may not make Indonesia’s position

between the US and China any easier, it would certainly contribute to enhancing the security

of key regional waterways and chokepoints and consolidate US influence and power

projection in the region.

Leighton G. Luke Manager Indian Ocean Research Programme lluke@futuredirections.org.au

*****

Food and Water Knowledge Lacking in Australian Schools

Background

A recurrent theme at workshops run by FDI’s Global Food and Water Crises Research

Programme is concern at the lack of knowledge of our food chain systems among Australian

students. Some argue that the lack of appreciation for the importance of food security is one

of the reasons why it is hard to get interest at government level in solving global food and

water crises. These concerns have been somewhat vindicated by a report published recently

by the Australian Council of Educational Research.

Comment

The report, Food Fibre and the Future: Report on Surveys of Students’ and Teachers’

knowledge and understanding of Primary Industries found that knowledge related to food

and fibre production had declined significantly. The report, commissioned by the Primary

Industries Education Foundation, with the support of supermarket chain Woolworths,

revealed that 75 per cent of students surveyed thought cotton socks were an animal product

and 45 per cent of students could not identify everyday lunchbox items that originated from

farms.

Page 4 of 14

PIEF chairman Cameron Archer said the survey was a wake-up call for government, industry

and educators, especially as it comes at a time when the primary industries are being

excluded from the national curriculum.

‘The primary industries sectors face a critical shortage in attracting new entrants at all levels

of the supply chain. This will have serious implications in the next five to ten years as we

begin to understand the implications that an ill‐informed public, climate variability and the

skills shortage will have on Australia’s ability to feed 70 million people here and abroad,’ said

Dr Archer.

‘The people who will need to solve the problems related to food security are either currently

in school, or are yet to be born.’

The survey was conducted from June to October 2011 and involved the participation of 213

Grade Six students, 687 Grade Ten students and 53 teachers from 71 schools.

The report recommends that primary industry-focussed professional development

opportunities may assist teachers in developing knowledge in that area.

The report appears to justify the concerns of farmers and policymakers that food security is

not fully appreciated by students and teachers. If the report’s recommendations are

followed, it could go some way towards making the next generation more aware of future

food and water concerns and also give them the ability to think strategically to overcome or

avert potential food and water problems.

For the full report: http://www.primaryindustrieseducation.com.au/resources/reports/foodfibrefuture.pdf

Gary Kleyn Manager Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme gkleyn@futuredirections.org.au

*****

Swaziland Food Insecurity Intensified by Financial Crisis

Background

Household surveys in Swaziland indicate the extent to which food security has been affected

by the recent global financial crisis. People in both rural and urban areas are modifying their

food consumption habits, following severe economic shocks. Rising food prices and lower

incomes are inflicting hunger and malnutrition, in a country where the food security

situation was already precarious before the international slowdown.

Page 5 of 14

Comment

A report released last week by the United Nations, reveals that Swaziland’s food security

situation has worsened since the global financial crisis. The report, prepared by the UN’s

Country Team in Swaziland, surveyed a representative sample of urban and rural citizens,

following severe economic shocks in 2010 and 2011. It found that rising food prices and

reduced incomes had forced Swazis to adopt alternative strategies to cope, including

reducing the quality and quantity of food consumed. The results of the survey indicate that

half of rural households, and one-third of urban households, are either reducing the size of

meals or skipping them altogether. Worryingly, over a quarter of rural families are delaying

consumption for periods longer than a day. Considering the already faltering status of food

security in Swaziland prior to the financial crisis, the obvious negative consequences of these

patterns of consumption are alarming.

There are many factors that have an impact on a country’s food security. Economic

performance is an important, though distinct, component of these. Economic markers, such

as unemployment and poverty rates, were high throughout the period leading up to the

financial crisis. In the decade from 2000 to 2010, Swaziland experienced one of the lowest

rates of growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Its economy grew, on average, by 2.7 per cent

annually, compared with 5.7 per cent for the sub-Saharan region. Food insecurity was an

established concern and the country was acutely susceptible to developing future food

crises brought about by external financial shocks. Swaziland found itself towards the lower

end of the UN Human Development Index. Much-needed revenue from the Southern Africa

Customs Union (SACU) decreased substantially amid the fallout from the global downturn,

contributing to the country’s now tentative food situation.

As is usually the case, poorer households have been most vulnerable to the economic

shocks, as well as those infected with, or impacted by, HIV-AIDS. Swaziland has the highest

rate of HIV infection in the world, and a poverty rate of 63 per cent. These households have

little ability to alter their living strategies, and the reduction of real incomes in Swaziland has

the potential to push many of them beyond the threshold of survivability. Outside these

groups, surveys show that households in rural areas have been hardest hit by the crisis. This

has had an impact on all facets of rural living, including education. As food prices rise and

incomes diminish through loss of employment, the ability of carers to pay for education has

weakened. Around one-fifth of families have withdrawn their children from school, an

outcome that further compromises the food security of those children, due to the loss of

access to meals provided by schools. The removal of this vital source of food will worsen

Swaziland’s childhood malnutrition problem.

The negative impact of the financial crisis in Swaziland threatens the progress made in

reaching the UN’s Millennium Development Goals, particularly in food security. The extent

to which household food consumption has deteriorated may even see conditions regress.

Beyond the reduction in food quantity and quality, many households are being forced to sell

their food-producing assets – land, equipment and cows. This unsustainable practice makes

recovery, as well as the attainment of a food-secure status, difficult or even impossible.

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Notwithstanding these circumstances, the outlook for 2012 and beyond contains positive

elements for Swaziland. The revenue of SACU is expected to rise 150 per cent in 2012/13,

providing substantially higher financial resources. The country is also projected to achieve

budget surpluses for the next five years, due to the government’s fiscal prudence, further

emboldening the food security situation. Ideally, financial recovery in Swaziland will assist in

restoring adequate levels of consumption to its population.

Jay Vella Research Analyst Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme jvella@futuredirections.org.au

*****

World Water Forum: A Stepping Stone to Water Security

Background

Every three years since 1997, the World Water Council has hosted the World Water Forum.

This year, the venue was Marseilles, France in mid-March, with the focus on sharing

solutions to water challenges. The forum has developed 12 priorities, which include access

to clean water, harmonising water and energy, and contributing to food security. For the

first time, a universal declaration was signed integrating every theme related to the urgency

of conserving water resources, including human rights obligations.

Comment

Water brings together global questions of food security, health and energy. Universal access

to freshwater is imperative and yet there are growing pressures on this vital resource, from

food production, energy consumption and climate change. As it stands, nearly one billion

people lack access to clean drinking water, therefore good planning and adaptation is

required to reduce the risk that hundreds of millions of people will be affected by disease

and hunger.

The aim of the forum is to tackle the water challenges facing the world and raise the

importance of water on all political agendas. It aims to combine creativity, innovation,

competence and knowledge of water, by gathering all stakeholders with experience of local,

regional and global issues.

Attending this forum were 180 countries, 25,000 participants, 140 ministerial delegates and

over 800 speakers. Among those attending were Bruno Le Maire, the French Minister for

Agriculture; Izabella Teixeira, the Brazilian Minster for the Environment; and South African

Water and Environmental Affairs Minister, Edna Molewa.

The fifth World Water Forum in 2009, with the theme “Bridging Divides for Water”, focussed

on collective progress to ensure water security. The sixth World Water Forum focussed on

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the solutions for water crises by advocating a strategic approach, which includes technical,

financial and legal solutions. The forum developed 12 priorities, which include access to

clean water, harmonising water and energy, and contributing to food security.

Many discussions were held, including consideration of the desalination of water as a

solution in the Arab world. The “Water Wealth” programme was launched, drawing on 45

case studies showing new solutions to water challenges applied in Asia and the Pacific. These

ranged from increasing the resilience of river basins, to sustainable management of the

natural environment affecting the storage and regulation of water.

A main outcome of this forum is linked to the United Nations “Rio+20 Summit” on

sustainable development, scheduled for June 2012. Ahead of this summit, 130 countries

have issued declarations urging action that will provide access to clean water and sanitation,

and fix the worsening problems of water scarcity. They believe this can be achieved by

emphasising the linkages between water, energy and food security.

Shona Shah FDI Research Assistant Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme

*****

An Uncertain Future: The Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline

Background

The long-proposed Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline continues to stall. Although Pakistan is

facing an imminent energy crisis, for Islamabad, the project is caught up in the complexities

of its relationships with Iran and the United States.

Comment

Islamabad is of the view that securing funds for the construction of the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas

pipeline should not be a problem. According to media reports, addressing a joint press

conference with the visiting Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister

stated that there are multiple sources available. ‘This is a fairly viable project and we hope

there will not be any problem in trying to find ways and means of ensuring its funding.’ She

further stated that, in keeping with the severity of the energy crisis in the country, ‘We

cannot afford to be selective in pursuing energy sources and we will continue to do

whatever we consider to be in our national interest.’

The IP gas pipeline is in trouble; once again. The Iran-Pakistan pipeline as it was initially

planned has been around for quite some time now. The discussions for it started in 1994

between Islamabad and Tehran. On the suggestion of Tehran, New Delhi was included in the

proposed pipeline project and it became the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline. In February

1999, an agreement between Tehran and New Delhi was signed. It was then also called the

“Peace Pipeline”, as it was viewed as a joint India-Pakistan venture which would bring peace

Page 8 of 14

and prosperity between the two traditional rivals. The 1999 coup in Pakistan resulted in

some delays, but it soon came back on track. According to various media sources, Tehran

was also keen to involve China in the project. After India abandoned the then-IPI in 2009,

after signing a civilian nuclear deal with the United States, the final destination of the

pipeline remains unclear.

Both Tehran and Islamabad, however, continued working on it. A gas purchase agreement

between Iran and Pakistan was signed in 2009. According to reports, Tehran has already

completed its part of the pipeline while a feasibility study is underway on the Pakistani side.

In recent times, Islamabad showed more inclination towards the IP pipeline than other

options, including the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAPI). This is for various reasons, such as

deteriorating Afghanistan-Pakistan relations, the uncertainty over Turkmenistan’s ability to

supply the agreed amount of gas, and the cost and duration involved in the competition of

the pipeline. The last point being the most important, as Islamabad is in urgent need of new

gas sources as it is increasingly running out of its own gas reserves. A number of experts

have estimated that, even if demand does not increase, reserves would be completely

depleted by 2028-30.

Washington is strongly against the project. According to US policymakers, this would provide

Tehran with capital which it will use to pursue its anti-American, anti-Israeli and anti-

Western agenda and to further its nuclear programme. According to media reports, US

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, addressing the House Appropriation Subcommittee on

Foreign Operations, stated that embarking on the IP pipeline project is in violation of the

Iran Sanctions Act.

Although Islamabad has reiterated that it would go ahead with the IP pipeline, it would be a

bumpy ride. Earlier this year, Pakistan’s own Oil and Gas Development Corporation and the

National Bank of Pakistan reportedly withdrew from the project, stating likely adverse

implications for their foreign partnerships and businesses. But, if Pakistan does decide to

back off from the project, it will have to pay a huge amount in compensation to Iran as per

the 2009 agreement. The only encouraging note so far is that the Industrial and Commercial

Bank of China is considering financing the project.

In light of this, the biggest challenge for Islamabad is ensure that it manages its complex

relationship with both Tehran and Washington. While it should go ahead with the IP pipeline

feasibility study and see what shape the current crisis between US and Iran takes, and what

would be the outlook of post-elections Iran, it should also explore other possibilities, such as

TAPI and/or a Qatar-Pakistan pipeline.

Rizwan Zeb FDI Associate

About the Author: Rizwan Zeb is a Ph.D. candidate at the Centre for Muslim States and Societies,

Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Western Australia. He is a

former visiting scholar for the India/South Asia Project, Foreign Policy Programme at the Brookings

Institution, Washington DC, USA and a Benjamin Meaker visiting professor of politics, IAS, University

of Bristol, United Kingdom.

Page 9 of 14

This article is a slightly updated and revised version of “Pakistan’s Energy Future: International

Pressures and Regional Compulsions”, published in CACI Analyst, 7 March 2012.

*****

Al Qaida-Inspired Group Threatens Nigerian Energy Sector

Background

The Gulf of Guinea is experiencing an energy boom, as major oil companies seek to capitalise

on the region’s large reserves and relative stability, when compared to the Middle East.

West Africa is not without security challenges, however. Boko Haram, a group with

supposed links to al-Qaida, is challenging the stability of the Nigerian state and, therefore,

threatening hydrocarbon development opportunities. Key to countering the organisation’s

growth will be the development of grassroots strategies by the central government in Abuja,

the nation’s capital. As demonstrated in various theatres, improved social opportunities

often translate to an enhanced security situation.

Comment

Attacks against the Nigerian state by terrorist group Boko Haram continue unabated. The

latest attack, on 12 March, raised questions about the government’s initiative to commence

talks with the organisation. As the oil sector is the main source of the country’s revenue,

Nigerian citizens, the international community and foreign oil companies, are placing

pressure on the government of President Goodluck Jonathan to find a solution and stabilise

the precarious situation.

Nigeria is the largest producer of sweet oil in OPEC. The hydrocarbon sector drives the

national economy, significantly contributing to Nigeria’s position as the second largest

African economy.

The United States is the largest importer of Nigeria’s crude oil; receiving 40 per cent of the

country’s total oil exports. With the unstable global economy and conflict in the Middle East,

the Gulf of Guinea is becoming more attractive for US oil corporations. Projections indicate

that, by 2025, some 60-70 per cent of Nigerian oil imports will go to the US.

According to the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, despite the country’s

substantial oil wealth, corruption remains a problem and poverty is widespread. Nigerian

human development indicators are among the poorest in the world. This has provided a

recruiting ground for radical organisations, such as Boko Haram.

Founded in 2002 in north-east Nigeria by Mohammed Yusuf, Boko Haram aims to establish a

national sharia law code, eradicate “western teaching”, and unify the Islamic population

against non-Muslims. The group’s main target has been Christians and foreigners, although

moderate Muslims have been increasingly targeted. As the organisation has evolved, its

tactics have become more violent. Originally concentrated in Maiduguri, the capital of the

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northern state of Borno, Boko Haram has grown to operate across the north-east quadrant

of the country. These local Boko Haram proxies operate with carte blanche from Maiduguri,

transforming the group from a traditional terrorist organisation to something much more

akin to a guerrilla force.

The group has quickly risen to become one of the greatest challenges to Nigerian stability.

US officials, including the Homeland Security Committee, suspect the group – ideologically

aligned to al-Qaida dogma – may have still deeper connections, including possibly receiving

training from that organisation. Such links, however, are yet to be proven. Importantly, this

connection, whether ideological or tactical, places the country’s hydrocarbon sector at risk.

Targeting of oil infrastructure would be in line with previous al-Qaida statements and

behaviour.

Attacks in the northern city of Kano on 20 January, provide evidence of the violent nature of

Boko Haram. The highly co-ordinated operation saw its members attack police buildings,

free prison inmates and bomb government offices, killing over 170 people. The central

government in Abuja responded swiftly, with the Nigerian State Security Service detaining a

number of suspected militants, particularly focusing on Maiduguri. The long-term success of

the operation remains questionable, and the likelihood of large-scale attacks should not be

discounted.

Importantly, Boko Haram has failed to mobilise large-scale support. Its indiscriminate attacks

have isolated it from the largely moderate Islamic community in Nigeria. Several large

Muslim groups, such as Ansaru, have directly criticised the organisation. This presents key

opportunities for Abuja. The Nigerian Government should seek to replicate the “Anbar

Awakening”, which saw local communities reject, and arguably defeat, al-Qaida’s

incarnation in Iraq. This will involve supporting local Islamic communities, particularly

through grass roots campaigning. A significant part of this outcome will involve improving

the education, health and employment opportunities available in northern Nigeria. In

contrast, failure to resolve disparities could lead to an expansion of the organisation and

stop the emerging energy boom.

Abuja should also look to create security synergies, particularly given the importance of

Nigerian oil to the United States and the European Union, as they seek to diversify their

energy portfolio away from the Middle East. Counter-terrorism training will serve the dual

purpose of weakening Boko Haram, and other extremist groups, while strengthening the

sometimes tenuous rule of the central government.

Denis Leonov FDI Research Assistant Energy Security Research Programme

*****

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South African Navy Proactive as Piracy Threatens Southern

Waters

Background

The South African Navy has announced plans to establish two Maritime Domain Awareness

(MDA) Centres, to combat the growing threat of piracy to shipping along the southern

African coast.

Comment

Chief Maritime Strategy Director Bernhard Teuteberg, who briefed reporters at the State of

the Navy presentation in Cape Town on 8 March, warned that ‘the Somalian piracy threat is

in fact, from week to week, moving into a southerly direction.’1 He also confirmed that the

navy was prepared to deal with the threat. ‘We have proposed,’ he said, ‘a maritime zone

and regional maritime domain zone centres, all working together to exchange information.’2

One of the MDA centres will be based in Cape Town and cover the west coast; the other, in

Durban, will cover the east coast.

‘We already have many sources that provide information generally available,’ Teuteberg

explained, ‘but it needs to be integrated properly within a maritime information system and

that is what we are concluding at the moment.’

This information is expected to be centralised from 1 April. Data will be shared with similar

centres that are already operating between Angola and Namibia, to assist in anti-piracy

measures.

South Africa formalised diplomatic ties with Somalia on 14 March, to better co-ordinate

efforts to curb the country’s piracy problem. Over the past year, South Africa has been

working with Mozambique and Tanzania to secure the channel between the mainland and

Mozambique. South Africa has also been actively involved in joint anti-piracy operations

with France, which has a vested interest in protecting its Indian Ocean départments of La

Réunion and Mayotte.

South Africa has the largest naval presence in Africa, with a force of at least four Valour-class

frigates, two Warrior-class vessels, and 26 Namacurra-class harbour patrol craft, which can

be transported by road. Pretoria’s commitment to safeguarding regional waters against

piracy seems to extend beyond its own self-interest; this would indicate a growing South

African role as a regional power.

Ashley Woermann FDI Research Assistant Indian Ocean Research Programme

1 Wingrin, D., DefenceWeb, 19 March 2012, ‘Navy to Establish Maritime Awareness Centres’.

2 Etheridge, J., Neptune Maritime Security, 15 March 2012, ‘Piracy threatens South Africa’.

Page 12 of 14

*****

Syria’s Neighbours Back Opposition, Fuel Ongoing Unrest

Background

Many of Syria’s neighbours are backing opponents of President Bashar al-Assad in the hope

of implementing regime change in the Arab state. While this may benefit opponents of

Assad, this support has fuelled the ongoing unrest within Syria, as pro-Wahhabi elements

within the region intensify their efforts to topple one of the last remaining secular states

within the Middle East.

Comment

Saudi Arabia and Qatar appear keen to see the end of President Assad’s government and the

assistance that has been provided has aided anti-Assad forces, which is fuelling the growing

insurgency within Syria, where an all-out civil war remains a very real possibility. According

to Reuters, both Saudi Arabia and Qatar are offering funding and assistance to opposition

groups and are providing weapons to Syrian rebels by way of Sunni tribal allies in Iraq and

Lebanon.

For instance, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, told a “Friends of Syria”

conference in Tunis last month that humanitarian aid to Syria was ‘not enough’ and that

arming the Syrian rebels was an ‘excellent idea’. Days later, Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin

Jassim al-Thani said, ‘we should do whatever necessary to help [the Syrian opposition],

including giving them weapons to defend themselves,’ reports the BBC. In addition, the

Iranian media agency PressTV, accused Qatar of airlifting pro-Wahhabi fighters from Iraq,

Turkey and Libya into Syria as reinforcements. There have also been reports that Turkey and

Jordan are also actively fermenting unrest in Syria by arming Sunni opposition groups and

movements, but this remains unsubstantiated.

Saudi Arabia’s rationale to support the insurgency against the Assad Government is

fundamentally aimed at altering the regional balance of power and further isolating Iran. As

the only Shiite-dominated state in the region, the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia for

regional supremacy, especially since the end of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq and the

escalation of the war in Afghanistan, has intensified. Should Iran lose its most powerful ally

in Syria, where a pro-Wahhabi and Sunni-led government is likely replace Assad, its regional

influence will be significantly reduced as it becomes further isolated in the Middle East.

Qatar, meanwhile, sees itself as a growing player in the region, especially following the Arab

Spring that has swept the Middle East. The removal of President Assad and a growing

alliance with Saudi Arabia would almost certainly see its regional influence expand. Like

Saudi Arabia, Qatar is committed to supporting pro-Wahhabi Sunni-movements through the

Muslim-world and has been actively involved in supporting anti-Gaddafi Libyan rebels and

acting as a mediator in disputes in Yemen and Lebanon. According to some commentators,

Page 13 of 14

Doha has, in the past year, played a larger role in shaping events in the Middle East than

Riyadh has, referring to its role as the “Doha effect” and that “all roads lead to Doha”.

The convergence in the foreign policy objectives of Saudi Arabia and Qatar is likely to

develop further as both countries look to capitalise on and shape the winds of change in the

Middle East. The previously secular states of Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia and Libya have fallen,

with pro-Wahhabi Islamist groups seeking to replace the former governing apparatus. Syria,

therefore, remains one of last secular states in the Middle East, and both Saudi Arabia and

Qatar are likely to view it as the final piece in an historic battle in the Arab world against

secular nationalists that has been perennial since the end of the Second World War.

So far, however, Assad’s forces have proven resilient, partly because the disparate

opposition groups are splintered and lack heavy weapons. Just how long the conflict will go

on for is impossible to know, but the support provided by Saudi Arabia and Qatar has

certainly given much needed impetus to the insurgents, and has increased the likelihood of a

protracted and bloody civil war.

Andrew Manners FDI Research Assistant South and West Asia Programme

*****

What’s Next?

The Royal New Zealand Air Force is currently hosting an international training

exercise with the Royal Australian Air Force, the United States Air Force, the

Republic of Singapore Air Force and the French Armed Forces of New Caledonia

at the Ohakea Air Base, Palmerston North. The exercise takes place ahead of

the RNZAF’s 75th anniversary air show on 31 March.

New Delhi will host a summit of the leaders of the BRICS countries (Brazil,

Russia, India, China and South Africa), on 28-29 March.

The first “Agriculture & Agribusiness in South-east Europe” Conference will be

held in Bucharest, Romania on 28-29 March. For more details:

http://foruminvest.ro/conferences-and-events/conferences/AGRICULTURE-

AND-AGRIBUSINESS-IN-SOUTH-EASTERN-EUROPE-2012.html

Burma will hold a number of by-elections on 1 April. For the first time,

democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be among the candidates.

The National Sustainable Food Summit will take place in Sydney on 2-4 April.

The summit hopes to identify new business models, frameworks and solutions

to create a future sustainable food system. For more details:

http://www.3pillarsnetwork.com.au/media/food_summit_program_prelim.pdf

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Any opinions or views expressed in this paper are those of the individual author, unless stated to be those of Future Directions International.

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