FROM THE 2020-PACKAGE TO THE WINTER PACKAGE WHICH … · The “Renewable Energy Sources“...

© Fraunhofer ISI

FROM THE 2020 -PACKAGE TO THE W INTER PACKAGE WHICH WAY FOR WARD FOR RENEWABLES IN EUROPE ?

W o r k s h o p

“ E U C l e a n E n e r g y P a c k a g e E x p l a i n e d t o M e d i t e r r a n e a n C o u n t r i e s ”

M e d i t e r r a n e a n F o r u m o n E l e c t r i c i t y a n d C l i m a t e C h a n g e

P r o f . D r . M a r i o R a g w i t z , F r a u n h o f e r I S I

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 2

Need for a new ambition level after Paris?

Current status of renewable energy in the EU

Key elements of the EU‘s renewable energy policy for 2020

The 2030 Energy Union Governance

The 2030 Renewable Energy Directive

Contents

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 3






Contents

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 4

Af te r the Par is agreement the ambi t ion leve l o f

g loba l c l imate po l i cy changed d ramat ica l l y !

[Source: IEA WEO 2016]

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 5

Al ready fo r the 2 ° scenar io (450 ppm)

renewab les need to con t r ibu te the l ions share !

[Source: IEA WEO 2016]

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 6

Deser t power enab les c l imate ac t ion

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 7

The cos ts o f renewab les have reduced

mass ive ly – a lso w i th in t roduc t ion o f auc t ions !

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 8

Solar and wind is now either the same price or cheaper than new fossil fuel capacity in more than 30 countries, according to a new report from the World Economic Forum.

Before 2013, when renewable technologieswere still largely uncompetitive, solar andwind average annual returns were -11% and-6% respectively (negative returns!). After theturning point in technology, returns jumped to10% and 17% (positive returns!).

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/solar-and-wind-power-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-for-the-first-time-a7509251.html

https://www.weforum.org/whitepapers/renewable-infrastructure-investment-handbook-a-guide-for-institutional-investors

Globa l economic leaderscons ider RES mainst ream

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 9






Contents

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 10

His to r i c deve lopment of a l l RES -E in the EU-28

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 11

His to r i c deve lopment of a l l RES -E in the EU-28

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 12

His to r i c deve lopment of new RES-E in the EU-28

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 13

His to r i c deve lopment of new RES-H in the EU-28

► Solid Biomass dominates RES-H sector.

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 14

His to r i c deve lopment of new RES-T in the EU-28

► Biodiesel and Bioethanol dominate RES-T sector.

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 15






Contents

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 16

EU Targets and Pol ic ies – 2020 perspect ive

EU Climate and Energy Package: “20 20 20” objective20% reduction in GHG emissions over 199020% reduction in primary energy demand through energy efficiency20% share of renewable energy (gross final energy)10% Biofuels in the transport sector

National support schemes will remain the cornerstones of the deployment of renewables in Europe + RES-H building obligations in EU27

Flexibility mechanisms between EU Member States: Statistical transferJoint projects between Member States Joint support schemes

Measures to reduce non-economic barriers

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 17

The “Renewab le Ene rgy Sources“ D i rec t i ve 2009

Source: CE Delft, 2015

Policy MeasuresArticle of the Renewable

Energy Directive

Mandatory national overall targets for 2020 3

Mandatory national targets for renewable energy in transport: 10% in 2020 3

National renewable energy action plans 4

Statistical transfers between Member States 6-12

Admin. Procedures, regulations and codes 13

Information and training 14

Guarantees of origin of electricity, heating and cooling produced from

renewable energy sources 15

Access to and operation of the grids 16

Sustainability criteria for biofuels and bioliquids 17-19, 21

Reporting by the Member States 22-23

Policy Measures:

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 18

How the European Commission set the targets … „FLAT RATE“ & „GDP-Variation“

… i.e.: RES-target2020 = RES2005% + 50% *RESNEW % + 50%*“RESNEW % GDP-weighting“-“first mover bonus“

Note: Additional potentials do not include biofuel imports from abroad

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Au

str

ia

Be

lgiu

m

Bu

lga

ria

Cypru

s

Czech

Re

pu

blic

Den

ma

rk

Esto

nia

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ece

Hun

ga

ry

Ire

lan

d

Ita

ly

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Lu

xe

mb

ou

rg

Ma

lta

Neth

erla

nd

s

Po

lan

d

Po

rtu

ga

l

Rom

an

ia

Slo

va

kia

Slo

ve

nia

Sp

ain

Sw

ed

en

Unite

d K

ing

do

m

EU

27

RE

S in

te

rms o

f (g

ross)

fin

al e

ne

rgy [

% o

f d

em

an

d]

RES share 2005

RES potential 2020 - share on current (2005) demand

RES target for 2020

Achieved RES deployment (2005), realisable RES potential up to 2020 and agreed RES target for 2020 by Member State

The ca lcu lat ion of the nat iona l RES targets for 2020 and the rea l i sab le potent ia l s

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 19

Set national trajectories for the share of RES in transport, electricity, heating and cooling until 2020

Specify planned mix of different RE technologies

Cover policy measures to achieve targets such as cooperation between authorities

Specify planned statistical transfers with other countries

Create indicative trajectory tracing path towards achievement of goals

Measures to ensure biofuels comply with sustainability criteria

Form the basis for regular reporting of progress to the European Commission

2. Nat iona l Renewab le Energy Act ion P lans (NREAPs )

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 20

Ach ievement s ta tus o f the NREAP P ro jec t ions

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 21

Approach: “MS may agree on […] the statistical transfer of a specified amount of energy from RES from one MS to another MS”. (source: Directive 2009/28/EC, Art. 6)

Goals:

Take into account different RE potentials

Ensure cost-effectiveness of target compliance

Facilitate cross-border support of RE without affecting national support schemes

3. F l ex ib i l i t y /Coopera t ion Mechan i sms

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 22


Statistical transfers

Joint projects

Joint support schemes

Physical transfer from

3rd countries

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 23

3.1: Statistical Transfer

Virtual transfer of energy from one MS statistic to the RES statistic

3.2: Joint projects between Member States

RES potentials are exploited jointly by two or more MS

MS define which share counts towards which MS‘s target

3.3: Joint support schemes

Merging RES support schemes and defining quantity allocation

3.4: Joint projects with third countries

Joint projects between MS and countries outside the EU

(Source: Klessmann et al., 2014)


© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 24

Genera l po l i cy pa thways cur ren t l y poss ib le

w. r. t . coopera t ion w i th 3 rd count r ies

Source: Dii 2013

EU COM

Policy

Pathway

EU RE target and

harmonized support

schemes

Status quo, national RE

targets, but policy

convergence

Decarbonisation

without RE

targets (carbon

market and a

revised ETS)

Policy

Pathways

analyzed

Pathway A

Harmonized

FIP

Pathway B

Harmonized

Quota

Scheme

Pathway C

National

converged

schemes

Pathway C*

National

converged

schemes, joint

EU import

tenders

realistic options consideringcurrent proposal for2030-Governance

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 25

Transition towards a long term reliable framework:

1. Pooling of Art. 9 Projects to facilitate transition of pathway C to C*

2. Definition of comparable RE targets in MENA countries

3. a) Extension of EU Energy Community to MENA countries and application of

Art. 6 virtual transfer possible but full market liberalization required

b) Continuation of pathway C* to ease the coordination of build up of

interconnectors, combining RES tenders with tenders for interconnectors

4. Introduction of fully harmonized premium system after full market integration

including a common CO2 market, energy subsidy phase-out and a reliable

regulatory framework for grid investments have been accomplished.

Next s teps for EU-MENA integrat ion of RES pol icy

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 26

No regret options valid for all pathways:

• Introduction of non-discriminatory grid access and taxation regime

• Definition of national MENA RES targets comparable to EU

• Creation of regional power and balancing markets

• Unbundling of generation-, transmission- and distribution activities

• Regime for full IPP participation (transparent and non-discriminatory)

• Stepwise implementation of cost-reflective electricity prices

• Introduction of metering and certification schemes for RES

• Convergence of financing conditions

Additional elements for harmonized policy options:

• Existence EU-MENA power, balancing and carbon markets

• Common approach for burden sharing of RES support cost

Next s teps for EU-MENA integrat ion of RES pol icy

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 27

EU Commission environment and energy state aid guidelines contains the following main requirements.

Support should be granted based on the following conditions:

Use of auctions (or Quota /TGCs) to determine remuneration level

Premium systems to support market compatibility – no premium payment during negative prices

Technology neutrality

Partial opening of national support schemes (Cross-border support schemes)

Sta te A id gu ide l ines

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 28






Contents

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 29

The Energy Union Governance sha l l apply to the 5 d imens ions of the Energy Union

Source: European Commission

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 30

Genera l mot ivat ion and target s t ructure

• Strong role of renewables in Europe’s future energy mix ephasised by the

„Energy Road Map“ (COM(2011) 885/2): “Strong growth in renewables is the

so-called 'no regrets' option.”

• General motivations are security of supply, economic competitiveness and

environmental sustainability

• The European Council adopted a RES target of 27% by 2030 based on 40%

GHG savings and 30% (original 27%) energy efficiency targets

• Only an overall EU-binding target for RES

• No sectoral targets

• No national targets

• There was and is an intense discussion on the ambition level of the target

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/EmployRES-II%20final%20report_0.pdf

http://www.diacore.eu/ www.towards2030.eu

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/EmployRES-II final report_0.pdf

http://www.diacore.eu/

http://www.towards2030.eu/

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 31

1. The European Council agreed in October 2014 on an EU binding RES target, but excluded national binding targets.

2. What are the requirements for the future RES governance?

EU target should be “fulfilled through Member States contributions guided by the need to deliver collectively the EU target”

All Member States should contribute need to define their fair share

Increased flexibility for Member States (compared to 2020 framework)

RES investors will need transparency and reliability to deliver the target need for transparent and reliable planning framework; enforcement of EU target

Reliable national commitments also needed to coordinate investments in grids and generation assets

3. What-if-questions not sufficiently solved so far - What if national plans and actual RES deployment do not add up to 27%?

2030 governance for RES: Del ive r on the

2030 ta rge ts wh i le ensur ing MS f lex ib i l i t y

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 32

2020-targets used as baseline. If not met by 2021 payment to fund required

(Art.27(4)) good solution to keep 2020 targets effective

Mechanism to avoid ambition gap (Art. 27 (1))

Measures at Union level

Mechanism to close implementing gap (Art. 27 (3-4))

Issue recommendations for MS

Measures at Union level in addition to recommendations

Additional measures by MS (H&C/T quotas, funds, others)

Additional idea: Using the gap-filler as a tool to implement cooperation projects

with 3rd countries?

Governance: Gap-F i l le r + Addi t iona l i s sues

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 33

Generally GDP and employment impacts of policy scenarios on EU level

are below 1% change compared to BAU, i.e. renewable energy policy will not

cause radical changes of EU economy

A 30% RES target as compared to the reference case by 2030 leads to

positive GDP and Employment impacts, which amount to

between 0.1 and 0.4% of EU GDP

Net employment benefits up to 720 thousand

Positive GDP and employment impacts are higher for 35% RES:

between 0.1% and 0.8% of EU GDP

Net employment benefits up to 1.5 million

Conf i rming the Roadmap: RES pol icy is

indeed a 'no regrets ' opt ion by 2030

Source: Employ-RES II project

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/EmployRES-II%20final%20report_0.pdf

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/EmployRES-II final report_0.pdf

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 34

Ambi t ion leve l o f 2030 target on EU -28 leve l

- ne t ve rsus g ross i nc rease o f t o t a l RES gene ra t i on

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Incr

eas

e o

f R

ES g

en

era

tio

n b

y d

eca

de

[T

Wh

/a]

Net increase

Gross increase

2010 to 2020 2020 to 2030

Net and gross increase of renewable

generation at EU level by decade

(2010-2020 vs. 2020-2030) across all

energy sectors

Source: Towards2030 project

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 35

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Incr

eas

e o

f R

ES-

E g

en

era

tio

n b

y d

eca

de

[T

Wh

/a]

Net increase

Gross increase

2010 to 2020 2020 to 2030

Ambi t ion leve l o f 2030 target on EU -28 leve l

- ne t ve rsus g ross i nc rease o f RES-E gene ra t i on

Net and gross increase of renewable

electricity generation at EU level by

decade (2010-2020 vs. 2020-2030)


© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 36

Member States' contribution setting process in the area of renewable energy

1. When setting their contribution for their share of energy from renewable sources in gross final

consumption of energy in 2030 … Member States shall take into account the following:

(a) the measures provided for in [recast of Directive 2009/28/EC as proposed by COM(2016) 767];

(b) the measures adopted to reach the energy efficiency target adopted pursuant to Directive 2012/27/EU [version as amended in accordance with proposal COM(2016)761];

(c) other measures to promote renewable energy within Member States and at Union level; and

(d) circumstances affecting renewable energy deployment, such as:

(i) equitable distribution of deployment across the European Union;

(ii) economic potential;

(iii) geographical and natural constraints, including those of non-interconnected areas and regions; and

(iv) the level of power interconnection between Member States.

2. Member States shall collectively ensure that the sum of their contributions adds up to at least 27% of energy produced from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption at Union level by 2030

2030 governance for RES: Del ive r on the

2030 ta rge ts – ar t i c le 5 governance regu la t ion

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 38

Deviation of the flat-rate benchmark from the 2020 allocation method in percentage points

countries with higher GDP per TFEC get (slightly) lower relative targets

How to break down the EU wide target?

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 39

Deviation of the GDP-based benchmark (default) from the 2020 allocation method in percentage points

countries with higher GDP per TFEC get (slightly) higher relative targets

How to break down the EU wide target?

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 40

Planning and Reporting by the Member States moved from RED to Governance

Articles 3-13: Draft INECPs by 2018 (final 2019), draft update by 2023 (final 2024), every ten years

INECPs need to contain (Art. 3-4)

RES pledge + linear trajectory

Sectoral trajectory

Technology-specific trajectory

Policies

Energy sector projections until at least 2040

RES information reported on across several chapters

Governance: Integrated Nat iona l Energy and Cl imate P lans - INECPs

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 41

Biennial progress reports on implementation of plans across 5 dimensions (Article 15-22)

EC entitled to amend Annex I on the template of the INECPs (Art. 3(4)) and to provide template for progress reports (Art. 15(3))

Long-term low emission strategies (Art. 14) until 2070 “in the context of necessary reductions according to the IPCC by developed countries as a group, to reduce emissions by 80 to 95 % by 2050 compared to 1990 levels in a cost-effective manner.” inconsistencies and lack of ambition potentially transparent

Governance: INECPs

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 42

Payment into fund if 2020 RES target is not met

Several elements for gap filler explicitly mentioned

Additional Energy Union measures mentioned

“Early efforts” (implying benchmarks) mentioned several times

Regional cooperation mentioned

Exact consequence of missing ambition/implementation unclear

No quantitative benchmark (yet)

Governance – summary key e lements

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 44

Financial support for RES-E

Opening and stability

Priority dispatch and grid access Electricity regulation

Balancing responsibility Electricity regulation

Administrative issues

Self-consumption and energy communities

Obligation on heating and cooling

Transport

Overv iew - RED I I

FROM THE 2020-PACKAGE TO THE WINTER PACKAGE WHICH … · The “Renewable Energy Sources“...

Documents

Transcript of FROM THE 2020-PACKAGE TO THE WINTER PACKAGE WHICH … · The “Renewable Energy Sources“...