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From Technologies to Market © 2017 Photonique sur silicium:Tendances et perspectives de marché Eric MOUNIER, YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
Transcript of From Technologies to Market - IRT) Nanoelec · YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT. 2 FIELDS OF EXPERTISE Yole...
From Technologies to Market
© 2017
Photonique sur silicium: Tendances et perspectives de marché
Eric MOUNIER,
YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT
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FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
MEMS & Sensors
LED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging
Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced
Packaging
Batteries / Energy
Management
Power
Electronics
Displays
RF
Devices &
Techno.
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A GROUP OF COMPANIES
Market,
technology and
strategy
consulting
www.yole.fr
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinance.com
Innovation and business maker
www.bmorpho.com
Manufacturing costs analysis
Teardown and reverse engineering
Cost simulation tools
www.systemplus.fr
IP analysis
Patent assessment
www.knowmade.fr
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SILICON PHOTONICS APPLICATIONS – EXAMPLES OF PLAYERS POSITIONING
HPCTelecom
(FTTH, metropolitan)Data Centres
Commercial
productsCommercial
products
High Volumes
Aeronautics/
aerospace
A 110-channel
wavelength selector
developed for the
European Space Agency
(VTT).
Low Volumes
Sensors Autonomous cars
Commercial
products
MIT Lidar using SiPhGenalyte bio sensor.
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SILICON PHOTONICS LANDSCAPE (NON EXHAUSTIVE)
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Silicon Photonics 2017 report
University labs, research institutes, industrial companies … a whole eco system is setting up.
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HOW "TRADITIONAL" TELCO COMPANIES ARE FACING TOUGH COMPETITION FROM CLOUD PROVIDERS (SOURCE: JEFFERIES LLC, OFC 2016)
• In 2 - 3 years, investments from the top 5 cloud providers are likely to match the investments of the top 5 service providers
• Driven by exponential data growth, both industries are investing, and cloud providers are becoming a threat to “traditional” service providers.Large webcoms progressively control the game in the photonics industry - not only in data centers but also metro, and possibly for the long haul.
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$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Financial Overview
Top 5 Service Providers (T, VZ, S, TMUS, CTL) Top 5 Cloud Providers (GOOGL, FB, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT)
In 2007, the top 5 service providers
spent $41B more than the top 5 cloud
providers
In 2016, the top 5 service providers
will spend only $9B more than the top
5 cloud providers
CAGR (2011 - 2016E)
Top 5 Service providers: 3%
Top 5 Cloud providers: 27%
$M
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SI PHOTONICS PRODUCTS MANUFACTURERS ROADMAP
The first Si photonics products were introduced by Bookham in 2000
2006 2009/2010 2014 Year that Si photonics
products are introduced
on the market
2015 2016 2017 2018
From 2006 - 2015, only two players shipped SiPh
products.
Data centers were not yet struggling with
increasing data congestion
2000 2019
SiPh players in production today… and more to come
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SILICON PHOTONICS - THE BEST FROM BOTH WORLDS (ELECTRONICS & PHOTONICS)
• There are two different approaches for SiPh:
• Optical approaches (with CD in the range of 3 µm)
• IC players (with CD in the range of 0,35-1,5µm): for IC players, a new trend is to go zero change which means manufacturing optical components without making any changes to a CMOS process.
• However, electronics and optics do not share the same critical dimensions, i.e.:
• Si photonics’ waveguide behavior is dependent on the dimensions: 100 - 200 nm
• Critical electrical components are much smaller process nodes, i.e. 28 nm
• Combining Si photonics processing with 2.5D processing can benefit a typical interposer process (i.e. 90 nm) for optical components
• Regarding wafer size, 300 mm brings more cost benefits than 200 mm
Luxtera uses 0.35µm WG, which could be the best compromise from a CMOS manufacturing standpoint. Kotura/Mellanoxuses 3 µm WG width, which could be the best compromise from a photonics standpoint.
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Silicon Photonics 2017 report
30.35 WG width (µm)1.3 1.50.4
Towards higher signal powerTowards easier manufacturing (less topography)
IC APPROACH OPTICS APPROACH
Players developing Zero
Change approach.
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EXCITEMENT IS HIGH BUT IT IS STILL A MODEST MARKET
• Acacia capitalization exceeded $1.7B (Oct 2016)
• The total of private funding + acquisition total is more than $3B over past 5 years
• But the 2016 Silicon Photonics market value was less than $150M.
2017 Photonics & SiPh
transactions ~$3B
2017 SiPh revenues <
$150M
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CONCLUSIONS
• Photonics technologies is today driven by GAFAMs.
• Today’s chip market value is still small, but more players are coming:
• After 16 years of development, Intel has successfully penetrated this application
• It shares the current market with Luxtera, leader number 1.
• New startups and more and more products reaching the market.
• Encouraging signs in terms of growing investments from the VC community.
• Si photonics is at the maturity level of the electronics industry in the 80-90s. There are still challenges
to overcome: laser source, packaging, design, supply chain, manufacturability.
• Besides Data Centres, some interesting applications could follow.
