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China China June 2008June 2008

‘‘From Reconstruction to MitigationFrom Reconstruction to Mitigation’’TURKEYTURKEY’’s Experiences Experience

Murat Sungur BURSAFormer Director

Prime Ministry-PIUTURKEY

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TURKEY is prone to mainly three types of natural disasters.

One of the most seismically active region in the world;• 70% of the population lives in areas highly vulnerable to earhtquakes.• 66% of the country is located on active fault zones.• 75% of damaged buildings and %64 of total disaster losses in the last century are due to earthquakes

Vulnerable to floods;• Mostly in coastal plains and exacerbated by deforestation, erosion and ignorant development.• 15% of total disaster losses are due to floods.• Annual average losses exceed 100 million US$

Landslides;• 25% of country area is exposed to landslide hazard.• 11% of total population is located in landslide areas.• 16 % of total disaster losses are due to landslides.

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1999 Marmara Earthquake, 7.4 Richter

• 18000 lives lost

• 113.000 housing units and business premises were completely destroyed, 264.000 damaged to varying degrees

• Up to 600.000 people were forced to leave their homes.

• 10-15 billion US$ direct cost

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Lessons learned from Marmara Earthquake

CommunicationCommunication•• Communication failedCommunication failed

•• Telephone lines were out of order in first 48 hoursTelephone lines were out of order in first 48 hours•• Mobiles did not functionMobiles did not function

First Aid & RescueFirst Aid & Rescue•• Lack of organization and coordination in search & rescue activiLack of organization and coordination in search & rescue activitiesties

•• Caotic situationCaotic situation•• Bureaucracy inhibiting efficiency and effectivenessBureaucracy inhibiting efficiency and effectiveness

•• Insufficient logistic supportsInsufficient logistic supports•• Voluntary efforts were not trained and organisedVoluntary efforts were not trained and organised

Losses / Problems• Public buildings and infrastructure seriously damaged

•Sub-standard buildings and infrastructure• Hazard ignorant development

•Lack of code enforcement• Improper inspection during construction

• Corrupted permitting and licensing

Serious Resource Gap• 10-15 billion $ as direct cost

• %5-7 of Turkey’s GNP

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Developments after Marmara Earthquake – Worldbank as a partner

Establishment of Turkey Emergency Management General Directorate (TEMAD)

• a central coordination agency under Prime Minister’s Office

Setting up a National Catastrophic Insurance Program

• compulsory insurance for residential buildings.

• to minimize finance-gap and to transfer risks from individuals and state budget

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Developments after Marmara Earthquake – Worldbank as a partner

Reconstruction of Buildings• 14644 housing units,

• 5638 commercial units,

• 25 hospitals / health units,

• 9 schools

Change in Disaster Management Paradigm• from rehabilitation and recovery to mitigation and preparedness

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Evolution of Strategic Approach

10,58

27,6

64,05

100

0102030405060708090

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Erzincan-1992 Adana-1998 Marmara-1999 İstanbul

Percentage (%) of Risk Mitigation and Preparedness Components in Disaster Projects financed by Worldbank

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

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Policy Shift in TURKEY;

STRATEGIC

• Choice

• Proactive

• Mitigation

• Anticipate and prevent

• Ex-ante

• Risk management

• Comprehensive approach

• Sustainable development

CONVENTIONAL

• Fate

• Reactive

• Recovery

• Wait and see

• Ex-post

• Crisis management

• Ad-hoc efforts

• Development at risk

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İstanbul

Comparable seismic risk degree with San Francisco, Los Angeles and Tokyo cities

Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 30 years is greater than %50.

Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 10 years is greater than %20.

Impacts after a probable 7.5 Richter scale earthquake in Istanbul;

Approximately 70.000 dead people,120.000 injured-heavily injured people, 400.000 light injured people

direct economic loss ~30 billion US $

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ISTANBUL SEISMIC RISK MITIGATION ISTANBUL SEISMIC RISK MITIGATION AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS

PROJECT (ISMEP)PROJECT (ISMEP)Enhancing institutional and technical capacity for emergency management.

Public awareness on emergency preparedness and response.

Retrofitting/Reconstruction of priority public buildings.

Multi-hazard risk assessment of historical heritage buildings.

Building code enforcement.

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Public BuildingsPublic Buildings

Strategic Disaster ManagementStrategic Disaster Managementin Urban Areasin Urban Areas

Residential /Residential /Commercial BuildingsCommercial Buildings

Microzonation

Land use plans/ new city vision

Multi-hazard risk assessment

Preparation of designs

Technical and financial feasibility

Retrofitting

• Hospitals• Schools / universities• Student Dormitories• Fire-brigades• Police• Other public administrative buildings

Emergency Emergency ManagementManagement Legal IssuesLegal IssuesInfrastructureInfrastructure

/Lifelines/Lifelines TrainingTrainingCultural Heritage/ Cultural Heritage/ Historical Monum.Historical Monum.

Superstructure Superstructure / Buildings/ Buildings

Industrial Estates Industrial Estates / Factories/ Factories

• Industrial Estates• Small industries• Big industrial installations• Refineries• LPG stations• Petro-chemical complexes• Gas stations

Rehab. of existing building stock

Urban-regeneration

“Sine-qua-non”s for Retrofitting;

Technically feasible

financially affordable

economically justifiable

socially acceptableReconstruction

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ChallengeThe POWER is in the hands of decision The POWER is in the hands of decision makers and practitionersmakers and practitionersIf we are committed and engage our societies to take preparedness and mitigation measures at the adequate level,

many potential disasters will turn to be natural events.

THE POWER IS IN YOU!!!THE POWER IS IN YOU!!!

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Thank you...Thank you...