From Parent to Child
description
Transcript of From Parent to Child
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FROM PARENT TO CHILDAssociation Between Parental Resources and Child Development in Peru
Milo Vandemoortele
DSA ConferenceNovember, 2013
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Overarching Research Question
How and to what extent are parental resources associated
with child development?
A case study of Peru
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Why do research on this topic?• A “conservative estimate that more than 200 million children under 5 years fail to reach their potential in cognitive development because of poverty…” and its attendant problems.1
• Long term consequences2
• Poor children are more likely to remain poor
• Limited research on the topic
1 Grantham-McGregor et al., 2007:60; 2 Walker et al., 2011
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Research QuestionsHow and to what extent are parental resources associated with child development? Particularly focusing on:i. Parental resources at birth and each subsequent
stages of lifeii. Changes in parental resources iii. Differential effect of parental wealth versus
parental expenditureiv. Shape of the association – is it linear?v. Does the effect of parental resources differ for
poorer children versus wealthier children
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Analytical Framework
Source: Adapted from Haveman and Wolfe (1995), Grantham-McGregor et al. (2007)
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Data: Young Lives• Four countries: Ethiopia, Andhra Pradesh
(India), Peru and Vietnam• Total sample of 12,000 children followed over a
period of 15 years• Sample size used here, younger cohort in Peru
~2000 children born in 2001/02• Three survey rounds (birth, 5/6 yrs and 7/8 yrs)• Extremely low attrition rates (7% in Peru)
• Limitations
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Analytic Approach• Challenge: Omitted variable bias and endogeniety leads to biased estimates
• Several approaches available to address this• Latent Trait Modeling to recalculate the wealth index
Models1) OLS with Community Fixed Effects2) Spline with Community Fixed Effects3) Child Level Fixed Effects (First-Differences)
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Control Variables• Child specific:
• gender• race/ethnicity• birth weight• chronic health problems• stunting• age• subjective socio-economic status (at age 7/8 yrs)
• Household level: • siblings• caregivers level of education• proxies for household non-cognitive environment:
• maternal depression• caregiver’s educational aspirations of child• negative child rearing experience
• network/social capital• main language spoken at home
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Model 1: OLS with Community Fixed Effects
Where:• is the cognitive outcome observed in Round for child in
community • is expenditure (logged) in Round • is household wealth • are observed child-level factors, where there are number of
variables ( • represents the community fixed effects.• are the unobserved exogenous factors affecting child
development, where L is the number of variables (). • captures measurement error
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Model 2: Spline with Community FE
• Are there non-linear effects? • A prototypical model is represented as follows:
• The only difference between Equation 2 and Equation 1 is the spline function around the household resources variables and
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Model 3: First-difference model • Controls for differences between households and communities• Allows to examine the effect of changes in parental resources on
child development
• : changes in the developmental outcome between age 5/6 yrs and 7/8 yrs
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Vocabulary 5/6 yrs
Vocabulary 7/8 yrs
Math 5/6 yrs
Math 7/8 yrs
Reading 7/8 yrs
VARIABLES (PPVT) (PPVT) (CDA-Q) (Math) (EGRA)
Wealth at birth 2.49*** 1.08 0.14 0.50* 0.31*
(0.67) (0.57) (0.10) (0.22) (0.15)
Log consumption at birth -0.56 -0.51 0.01 -0.13 -0.03
(0.32) (0.27) (0.05) (0.11) (0.07)
Wealth age 5/6yrs 4.55*** 2.00** 0.31** 0.53* 0.37*
(0.64) (0.63) (0.10) (0.25) (0.17)
Log consumption age 5/6yrs 1.87** -0.32 0.26** 0.22 0.08
(0.62) (0.54) (0.09) (0.21) (0.14)
Wealth age 7/8yrs
2.87***
1.01*** 0.44**
(0.61)
(0.24) (0.16)
Log consumption age 7/8yrs
1.59**
0.42 0.28
(0.57)
(0.22) (0.15)
Observations 1,806 1,765 1,849 1,807 1,668 Number of Communities 81 82 82 82 82 Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05
Results: OLS with Community FE (1)
Consumption appears to have a positive and contemporaneous effect. Wealth too, but also a lagged effect.
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Vocabulary 5/6 yrs
Vocabulary 7/8 yrs
Math 5/6 yrs
Math 7/8 yrs
Reading 7/8 yrs
VARIABLES (PPVT) (PPVT) (CDA-Q) (Math) (EGRA)
Wealth at birth 2.49*** 1.08 0.14 0.50* 0.31*
(0.67) (0.57) (0.10) (0.22) (0.15)
Log consumption at birth -0.56 -0.51 0.01 -0.13 -0.03
(0.32) (0.27) (0.05) (0.11) (0.07)
Wealth age 5/6yrs 4.55*** 2.00** 0.31** 0.53* 0.37*
(0.64) (0.63) (0.10) (0.25) (0.17)
Log consumption age 5/6yrs 1.87** -0.32 0.26** 0.22 0.08
(0.62) (0.54) (0.09) (0.21) (0.14)
Wealth age 7/8yrs
2.87***
1.01*** 0.44**
(0.61)
(0.24) (0.16)
Log consumption age 7/8yrs
1.59**
0.42 0.28
(0.57)
(0.22) (0.15)
Observations 1,806 1,765 1,849 1,807 1,668 Number of Communities 81 82 82 82 82 Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05
Results: OLS with Community FE (2)
Wealth is a better predictor of children’s math and reading skills at 7/8 yrs old than consumption.
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Results: Spline with Community FE (1)• The effect of wealth on vocabulary scores at age 5/6 yrs is non-
linear, whereas the effect of expenditure is linear. • This is differs with math scores at 5/6 yrs, where the effect of
wealth and expenditure in the same time period are broadly linear.
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Results: Spline and Community FE (3)With maths and reading scores at 7/8 yrs, wealth in the previous period (5/6 yrs) appears to have a nonlinear effect.
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Results: First-Differences (1)
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-10
010
2030
Cha
nge
in S
core
5/6
-7/8
yrs
Poorest Poorer Middle Wealthier WealthiestExpenditure Group at Birth
math_diff
Average Marginal EffectChanges in Expenditure (5/6-7/8yrs)
-10
010
20C
hang
e in
Sco
re 5
/6-7
/8 y
rs
Poorest Poorer Middle Wealthier WealthiestExpenditure Group at Birth
ppvt_dif
Average Marginal EffectChanges in Expenditure (5/6-7/8yrs)
Changes in expenditure between 5/6 and 7/8 years appear to benefit the poorest children more than the better off children.
Voca
bula
ry
Mat
h
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Summary• Consumption appears to have a contemporaneous effect, while wealth has both a contemporaneous and lagged effect on vocabulary test scores.
• Data on parental wealth are a better predictor of children’s maths and reading skills at 7/8 yrs old than consumption data.
• The assumption that wealth is linearly associated with cognitive development does not hold.
• A change in wealth appears to have a lagged effect, while changes in expenditure an immediate effect on both math and vocabulary test scores.
• This effect appears to benefit poorer children more than better off children.
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MechanismsGoods inputs and under-nutrition• Stunting - negative and significant effect generally• Long term health problems – no significant effect• Birth weight – no significant effect
Time inputs / under-stimulation • Caregiver’s depression – positive with reading at age 7/8 yrs• Parental aspirations – positive and significance with vocabulary at age
7/8 yrs
Demographic• Gender - significant differences in math and vocabulary at age 7/8
yrs, but small
SES• Subjective SES – small, positive and significant with reading at age
7/8 yrs only
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Results: First-Differences (2)Changes in wealth between birth and 5/6 yrs appears to benefit poorer children more than wealthier children in both maths and vocabulary scores.
-20
-10
010
20C
hang
e in
Sco
re 5
/6-7
/8 y
rs
Poorest Poorer Middle Wealthier WealthiestWealth Group at Birth
ppvt_dif
Average Marginal EffectChanges in Wealth (birth-5/6yrs)
-10
010
2030
Cha
nge
in S
core
5/6
-7/8
yrs
Poorest Poorer Middle Wealthier WealthiestWealth Group at Birth
math_diff
Average Marginal EffectChanges in Wealth (birth-5/6yrs)
Voca
bula
ry
Mat
h