From Millenial to Millioner - WordPress.com...World GDP Ranking 2017 Source: knoema.com presented by...
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presented by Hendry Wijaya
From Millenial to Millioner
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14.34%32.56% 33.33%
68.95%
102.92%
280.30%
342.72%
0.00%
50.00%
100.00%
150.00%
200.00%
250.00%
300.00%
350.00%
400.00%
Bank Dollar Emas Deposito Obligasi Properti IHSG
Return on Investment2009 – September 2018
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Source: Yahoofinance
-19.44%
22.34%
37.28%
50.46%
90.22% 90.57%
141.08%
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
160.00%
China Hongkong Korea Amerika Jerman Jepang Indonesia
Composite GrowthMaret 2008 - September 2018
Apa itu saham?
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PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (per 30 September 2017)
Masyarakat Indonesia pemilik Rekening BCA
260 Juta 16 Juta
15 orang Indonesia : 1 pemilik rekening BCA
Sumber : https://www.bca.co.id/id/Tentang-BCA/Korporasi/Siaran-
Pers/2017/10/26/09/44/pt-bank-central-asia-tbk-hasil-kinerja-sembilan-bulan-pertama-
2017
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Tahun Laba bersih
2012 Rp 11 Triliun
2013 Rp 14 Triliun
2014 Rp 16 Triliun
2015 Rp 18 Triliun
2016 Rp 20 Triliun
2017 Rp 23 Triliun
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Profit Growth
Source: IDX
Tahun Laba bersih
2012 Rp 11 Triliun
2013 Rp 14 Triliun
2014 Rp 16 Triliun
2015 Rp 18 Triliun
2016 Rp 20 Triliun
2017 Rp 23 Triliun
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Profit Growth
Source: IDX
Nilai Perusahaan BBCA,
4 Juni 2018 :
Rp 584 Triliun
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Rp 584 Triliun
Dibagi 24,6 Miliar lembar
=
Rp 23,700 / Lembar Saham
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23,700
Updated: 1 June 2018
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
PT. Bank Central Asia Tbk2008 - Sept 2018
Growth + 669 %
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Do not take yearly results too
seriously. Instead, focus on
four or five-year averages.
I never invest in anything that
I don’t understand
Warren Buffet
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Source: databooks
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Updated: Sept 2018
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
11/30/2012 11/30/2013 11/30/2014 11/30/2015 11/30/2016 11/30/2017
PT. Waskita Karya Tbk
Oktober 2012 - September 2018
6 Years : + 324 %
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Updated: Sept 2018
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
PT. Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk2008 - September 2018
8950
10 Years : + 533 %
How Indonesia people spend the most time on social media?
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Source:
http://gulfbusiness.com/top-10-nations-people-spend-time-social-media/
4.7 Jam
3.5 Jam
2.7 Jam
0 1 2 3 4 5
Komputer
smartphone
social media
Internet usage per day (Hours)
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Updated: Sept 2018
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk2008 - September 2018
3600
10 Years : + 691 %
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Updated: Sept 2018
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk
2008 - Sept 2018
10 Years : + 784%
47,075
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10 Years : + 1128 %
75,025
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
PT. Gudang Garam Tbk2008 - September 2018
Updated: Sept 2018
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3120
10 Years : + 3052 %
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk2008 - September 2018
Updated: Sept 2018
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4 Years : -64%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
10/3
1/2
014
12/3
1/2
014
2/28
/20
15
4/30
/20
15
6/30
/20
15
8/31
/20
15
10/3
1/2
015
12/3
1/2
015
2/29
/20
16
4/30
/20
16
6/30
/20
16
8/31
/20
16
10/3
1/2
016
12/3
1/2
016
2/28
/20
17
4/30
/20
17
6/30
/20
17
8/31
/20
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10/3
1/2
017
12/3
1/2
017
2/28
/20
18
4/30
/20
18
6/30
/20
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8/31
/20
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PT. Blue Bird TbkOct 2014 - Sept 2018
2680
Updated: Sept 2018
Laba bersih PT. Blue Bird, Tbk terus menurun
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
PT. Media Nusantara Citra Tbk2008 - September 2018
10 Years : + 69%
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Nabung : Rp 500,000 / Bulan (Total 60 Juta)
Investasi 10 tahun Gain
Bank 64 Juta + 4 Juta
Deposito 79 Juta + 19 Juta
Reksa Dana LQ45 121 Juta + 61 Juta
Saham Bank BCA 175 Juta + 115 Juta
Saham Indofood 186 Juta + 126 Juta
Saham Gudang Garam 230 Juta + 170 Juta
Saham Waskita Karya 268 Juta + 208 Juta
Saham Bank BRI 427 Juta + 367 Juta
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Nabung : Rp 500,000 / Bulan (Total 180 Juta)
Investasi 30 tahun Gain
Bank 225 Juta + 45 Juta
Deposito 474 Juta + 294 Juta
Reksa Dana LQ45 2,5 Miliar + 2,3 Miliar
Saham Bank BCA 11 Miliar + 11,3 Miliar
Saham Indofood 14 Miliar + 14,5 Miliar
Saham Gudang Garam 34 Miliar + 34,6 Miliar
Saham Waskita Karya 63 Miliar + 63,3 Miliar
Saham Bank BRI 392 Miliar + 392 Miliar
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Analisis Fundamental
Analisis Teknikal
What to buy?
When to buy?
Memilih Saham Unggulan
• Net Income Growth selalu naik
• ROE (Return on Equity) diatas 15%
> memiliki Laba diatas 15%
• PBVR yang lebih rendah dari industrinya
> cari yang lebih Murah
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Download di Google Play Store
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Klik watchlist
dan masukan kode saham
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Klik kode saham tersebut
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Klik ‘Financials’
cari ‘net income growth’ yang terus naik
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Klik ‘key statistics’
cari di kolom ‘profitability’ (ROE > 15%)
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Kinerja Perusahaan sangatmempengaruhi harga saham dalamjangka panjang
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Ekonomi Makro
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5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
IHSG (2018)
Mengapa Tren Saham turun di Tahun 2018 ?
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2018 Cadev (US$ Billion) Current Account 7 days Reverse Repo US$ / Rupiah
Januari 131.98 - 756 Miliar 4.25% 13,480
Februari 128.05 - 52,9 Miliar 4.25% 13,776
Maret 126.003 + 1123 Miliar 4.25% 13,825
April 124.862 - 1625 Miliar 4.25% 13,946
Mei 122.914 - 1453 Miliar 4.75% 14,021
Juni 119.8 + 1706 Miliar 5.25% 14,476
Juli 118.3 - 2006 Miliar 5.25% 14,485
Agustus 117.9 - 1021 Miliar 5.50% 14,785
September 114.8 5.75% 15,004
Total -13.02% + 150 Bps 11.31%
Source: Bank Indonesia, BPS
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2018
Brent Price
/ Barel
Harga minyak /
liter PPN 10%
PBBKB
5%
Margin
10% Harga pasar
Januari 67.78 5,746 575 287 575 7,183
Februari 66.08 5,725 573 286 573 7,157
Maret 69.02 6,001 600 300 600 7,502
April 75.92 6,659 666 333 666 8,324
Mei 74.51 6,570 657 329 657 8,213
Juni 77.44 7,050 705 353 705 8,813
Juli 74.16 6,756 676 338 676 8,445
Agustus 77.05 7,165 716 358 716 8,956
September 84.94 8,015 802 401 802 10,019
Indonesia Foreign Direct
Investment
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Perbandingan 2018 dan krisis sebelumnya
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Indikator 1998 2008 2018 Kesimpulan
Inflasi 82.40% 12.10% 3.20% baik
Kurs Rupiah terendah 16,650 12,650 15,150 waspada
neraca transaksi (% to GDP) 0.70% -0.10% -3.00% waspada
Depresiasi Kurs 197% 35% 11.31% Masih batas aman
Suku Bunga 60% 9.50% 5.75% cukup rendah
Hutang pemerintah terhadap GDP 100% 27% 29% Manageble
Hutang luar negeri terhadap GDP 116.80% 33.20% 34.30% waspada
Debt Service Ratio 52% 17.20% 39.56% waspada
Credit Default swap 1248.35 144,66 risiko lebih rendah
Pertumbuhan ekonomi -13.10% 6.10% 5.20% melambat
Dampak Politik terhadap IHSG
IHSG 2014 - 2017
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PemilihanPresiden 2014
External factor:Perlambatan
ekonomi China
source: Yahoofinance
World GDP Ranking 2017
Source: knoema.com
presented by Hendry Wijaya ( Kresna Securities )
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11. Korea 1.530
12. Russia 1.469
13. Australia 1.390
14. Spain 1.307
15. Mexico 1.142
16. Indonesia 1.011
17. Turkey 841
18. Netherlands 824
19. Switzerland 681
20. Saudi Arabia 679
(Billion USD)
1. USA 19.362
2. China 11.938
3. Japan 4.884
4. Germany 3.652
5. France 2.575
6. United Kingdom 2.565
7. India 2.439
8. Brazil 2.081
9. Italy 1.921
10. Canada 1.640
Global Forecast of
Indonesia GDP Ranking on 2030
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Institution Rank Source
Mckinsey Global Institute 7http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/asia-
pacific/the_archipelago_economy
Standard Chartered 6
http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/archive/indone
sias-economy-to-be-in-worlds-top-six-in-2030-
standard-chartered/
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). 5
http://global.liputan6.com/read/2880278/ramalan
-raksasa-ekonomi-dunia-2030-indonesia-masuk-5-
besar
Y&R's brand strategy firm, BAV
Consulting, and the Wharton School
of the University of Pennsylvania
4https://www.usnews.com/news/best-
countries/best-invest-in
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source: IDX, IMF, WEO, Bloomberg, DJJPR, BI
Updated: 19 FEB 2018
Key Issues 2018
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Kenaikan Fed
Rate
Kebijakan
Trump
(Inward
Looking)
Trade war with
China
Eksternal Internal
Keadaan
geopolitik
pilkada dan awal
pilpres
Pelemahan
Rupiah
Kenaikan harga
komoditas
(inflasi)
Kenaikan suku
bunga acuan
Bank Indonesia
Realokasi
Dana
(Foreign)
Dana
Beredar
(Domestic)
Ekonomi
& Struktur
keuangan
Indonesia
2018
GI BEI UKRIDA
Line id: @jua4065i
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0856 9588 5673
Kresna Securities
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