From chaos to complexity
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Transcript of From chaos to complexity
Stefan HaasAgile Coach &
Trainer @haaslabwww.haaslab.net
From Chaos to
Complexity -‐ A Point of View for the Manager in the
21st Century
„I am very relaxed now, since I am
responsible for what I am saying, you are responsible for what you are hearing”
Humberto Maturana, transmediale08, 2008, Berlin, Haus der Kulturen der Welt
Charlie Todd: The shared experience of absurdity, TED, 2011
http://www.versionone.com/pdf/2011_State_of_Agile_Development_Survey_Results.pdf
BARRIERS TO FURTHER
AGILE ADOPTION For over half of the
respondents, the inability to change their
organization’s culture was the biggest
problem.
What is a complex system?
“complexity entails that, in a system, there are more possibiliNes
than can be actualized”
Niklas Luhmann in Complexity & Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity & Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity &Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
many elements interact
dynamically, non-‐linear and
rich
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity &Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
many elements interact
dynamically, non-‐linear and
rich The interacNons can also be
thought of as the transference of informa.on
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity &Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
many elements interact
dynamically, non-‐linear and
rich The interacNons can also be
thought of as the transference of informa.on
Complex systems are open systems
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity &Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
many elements interact
dynamically, non-‐linear and
rich The interacNons can also be
thought of as the transference of informa.on
Complex systems are usually open systems
Complex systems have a history
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity &Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
many elements interact
dynamically, non-‐linear and
rich The interacNons can also be
thought of as the transference of informa.on
interacNons have a short
range and wide ranging influence
Complex systems are usually open systems
Complex systems have a history
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity &Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
many elements interact
dynamically, non-‐linear and
rich The interacNons can also be
thought of as the transference of informa.on
interacNons have a short
range and wide ranging influence
Complex systems are usually open systems
There are loops in
the interacNons
Complex systems have a history
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity &Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
many elements interact
dynamically, non-‐linear and
rich The interacNons can also be
thought of as the transference of informa.on
interacNons have a short
range and wide ranging influence
Complex systems are usually open systems
There are loops in
the interacNons
Complex systems have a history
Complex Systems
operate far from equilibrium
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity &Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
Complex systems have a history
many elements interact
dynamically, non-‐linear and
rich The interacNons can also be
thought of as the transference of informa.on
interacNons have a short
range and wide ranging influence
Complex systems are usually open systems
There are loops in
the interacNons
Each element in the
system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a
whole
Complex Systems
operate far from equilibrium
(i) Complex systems consist of a large number of elements ... convenNonal means ... cease to assist in any understanding of the system.(ii) In order to consNtute a complex system, the elements have to interact, and this interacNon must be dynamic. The interacNons do not have to be physical; they can also be thought of as the transference of informa.on.(iii) The interacNon is fairly rich ... The behaviour of the system, however, is not determined by the exact amount of interacNons.(iv) ... interacNons are non-‐linear ...(v) The interacNons usually have a fairly short range, i.e. informaNon is received primarily from immediate neighbours ... This does not preclude wide ranging influence -‐ since interacNon is rich, the route from one element to any other can usually be covered in a few steps. As a result the influence gets modulated along the way.(vi) There are loops in the interacNons. The effect of any acNvity can feed back onto itself, someNmes directly, someNmes aVer a number of intervening stages. This feedback can be posiNve ... or negaNve... recurrency.(vii) Complex systems are usually open systems... it is oVen difficult to define the border of a complex system ... the scope ... is ... determined by the purpose of the descrip.on of the system, and is ... influenced by the posiNon of the observer... framing.(viii) Complex systems operate under condiNons far from from equilibrium. ... Equilibrium is another word for death.(xi) Complex systems have a history. Not only do they evolve through Nme, but their past is co-‐responsible for their present behaviour.(x) Each element in the system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a whole.
Complexity &Postmodernism, Paul Cilliers, 1998
many elements interact
dynamically, non-‐linear and
rich The interacNons can also be
thought of as the transference of informa.on
interacNons have a short
range and wide ranging influence
Complex systems are usually open systems
There are loops in
the interacNons
Complex systems have a history
Each element in the
system is ignorant of the behaviour of the system as a
whole
Complex Systems
operate far from equilibrium
What concrete
examples of complex systems can you think of
NOW?
Brains, bacteria, immune systems, the Internet, countries, gardens, ciLes, beehives…They’re all complex adapLve systems.
A team is a complex adapLve system (CAS), because it consists of parts (people) that form a system (team), which shows complex behavior while it keeps adap.ng to a changing environment.
Chaos is any state
of confusion or disorder, randomness, a lack of intelligible
pattern or combination
hVp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos
Süddeutsche Zeitung, Nr. 176, 1. August 2012
Kitty Kraus, People’s Choice Prize at the Hamburgerbahnhof 2011
The Nunchaku Bruce Lee vs Danny Inosanto, "Game of Death" (1978)
unhappy customersOnce there was a software business with
quality and productivityCustomer satisfaction was low because of low
lack of skills and disciplineQuality and productivity were low because there was
pressure on teamsCustomer dissatisfaction increased
no time foreducation
Stress at work meant
no skills andno discipline
No education meant
unhappy teamsCustomer pressure led to
decreasingmotivation
Lack of skills and unhappy customers added to
decreasingproductivity
Decreasedmotivationadded to
Causal Loop DiagramWe call this a
Diagram of Effects)(Some call it a
vicious cyclesIt shows the business suffered from
manyAnd not just one, but
revenues decliningManagement saw
cutting budgets
They tried to supportimprovement while
Meanwhile, technological pressure was increasing
And due to the crisis, economic pressure also went up
Needless to say, this business was
DOOMED
Grow Structure
Prinzessinnengärten Berlin
„...organizaNons which design
systems ... are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the com-‐municaNon structures of these organizaNons.“
Conway’s law
Darkness Principle
Misfit by Thomas Grünfeld
Agile Agile Team Startup
Step 1: Product"The minimum plan necessary to start a
Scrum project consists of a vision and a Product
Backlog"
Step 1: Product Co-‐Create the Team Vision and iniNal
Product Backlog with the Product Owners
Step 2: Journey Lines
fosters self-‐organizaNon and cross-‐funcNonal
behavior because it reveals a person’s skills, experiences,
background. This way, the rest of the team knows what this person “brings to
the party.”
Journey Lines by Lyssa Adkins
Step 3: Grow Structure
Co-‐Design the team-‐structure and decide who is in which team, agree on the roles and what the teams
want to achieve together.
Meddlers Game by Jurgen Appelo (Management 3.0)
Step 3: Grow Structure
Choose team members according to interest in the main feature area(s)
and who wants to work together
Meddlers Game by Jurgen Appelo (Management 3.0)
Step 3: Grow Structure
Decide on structure for first teams in fish bowl
hVp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fishbowl_(conversaLon)
1. Address complexity with complexity2. Use a diversity of perspecNves3. Assume dependence on context4. Assume subjecNvity and coevoluNon5. AnNcipate, adapt, explore6. Develop models in collaboraNon7. Shorten the feedback cycle8. Steal and tweak
Complexity Thinking
StartComplexity
Doing
When Faith Moves Mountains by Francis Alÿs
For a book list and references write an e-‐mail to [email protected] or contact me on twiher @haaslab
QuesNons?