From chaos to complexity

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Stefan Haas Agile Coach & Trainer @haaslab www.haaslab.net From Chaos to Complexity A Point of View for the Manager in the 21st Century
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Presentation from Manage Agile conference, Oct 17, Berlin

Transcript of From chaos to complexity

Page 1: From chaos to complexity

Stefan  HaasAgile  Coach  &  

Trainer  @haaslabwww.haaslab.net

From  Chaos  to  

Complexity  -‐  A  Point  of  View  for  the  Manager  in  the  

21st  Century

Page 2: From chaos to complexity

„I  am  very  relaxed  now,  since  I  am  

responsible  for  what  I  am  saying,  you  are  responsible  for  what  you  are  hearing”    

Humberto  Maturana,  transmediale08,  2008,  Berlin,  Haus  der  Kulturen  der  Welt

Page 3: From chaos to complexity
Page 4: From chaos to complexity
Page 5: From chaos to complexity

Charlie  Todd:  The  shared  experience  of  absurdity,  TED,  2011

Page 6: From chaos to complexity
Page 7: From chaos to complexity

http://www.versionone.com/pdf/2011_State_of_Agile_Development_Survey_Results.pdf

BARRIERS  TO  FURTHER  

AGILE  ADOPTION  For  over  half  of  the  

respondents,  the  inability  to  change  their  

organization’s  culture  was  the  biggest  

problem.

Page 8: From chaos to complexity

What  is  a  complex  system?

Page 9: From chaos to complexity

“complexity  entails  that,  in  a  system,  there  are  more  possibiliNes  

than  can  be  actualized”  

Niklas  Luhmann  in  Complexity  &  Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

Page 10: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &  Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

Page 11: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

many  elements  interact  

dynamically,  non-‐linear  and  

rich  

Page 12: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

many  elements  interact  

dynamically,  non-‐linear  and  

rich   The  interacNons  can  also  be  

thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on

Page 13: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

many  elements  interact  

dynamically,  non-‐linear  and  

rich   The  interacNons  can  also  be  

thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on

Complex  systems  are  open  systems

Page 14: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

many  elements  interact  

dynamically,  non-‐linear  and  

rich   The  interacNons  can  also  be  

thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on

Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems

Complex  systems  have  a  history

Page 15: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

many  elements  interact  

dynamically,  non-‐linear  and  

rich   The  interacNons  can  also  be  

thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on

interacNons  have  a  short  

range  and  wide  ranging  influence  

Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems

Complex  systems  have  a  history

Page 16: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

many  elements  interact  

dynamically,  non-‐linear  and  

rich   The  interacNons  can  also  be  

thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on

interacNons  have  a  short  

range  and  wide  ranging  influence  

Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems

There  are  loops  in  

the  interacNons

Complex  systems  have  a  history

Page 17: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

many  elements  interact  

dynamically,  non-‐linear  and  

rich   The  interacNons  can  also  be  

thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on

interacNons  have  a  short  

range  and  wide  ranging  influence  

Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems

There  are  loops  in  

the  interacNons

Complex  systems  have  a  history

Complex  Systems  

operate  far  from  equilibrium

Page 18: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

Complex  systems  have  a  history

many  elements  interact  

dynamically,  non-‐linear  and  

rich   The  interacNons  can  also  be  

thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on

interacNons  have  a  short  

range  and  wide  ranging  influence  

Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems

There  are  loops  in  

the  interacNons

Each  element  in  the  

system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  

whole

Complex  Systems  

operate  far  from  equilibrium

Page 19: From chaos to complexity

(i)  Complex  systems  consist  of  a  large  number  of  elements  ...  convenNonal  means  ...  cease  to  assist  in  any  understanding  of  the  system.(ii)  In  order  to  consNtute  a  complex  system,  the  elements  have  to  interact,  and  this  interacNon  must  be  dynamic.  The  interacNons  do  not  have  to  be  physical;  they  can  also  be  thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on.(iii)  The  interacNon  is  fairly  rich  ...  The  behaviour  of  the  system,  however,  is  not  determined  by  the  exact  amount  of  interacNons.(iv)  ...  interacNons  are  non-‐linear  ...(v)  The  interacNons  usually  have  a  fairly  short  range,  i.e.  informaNon  is  received  primarily  from  immediate  neighbours  ...  This  does  not  preclude  wide  ranging  influence  -‐  since  interacNon  is  rich,  the  route  from  one  element  to  any  other  can  usually  be  covered  in  a  few  steps.  As  a  result  the  influence  gets  modulated  along  the  way.(vi)  There  are  loops  in  the  interacNons.  The  effect  of  any  acNvity  can  feed  back  onto  itself,  someNmes  directly,  someNmes  aVer  a  number  of  intervening  stages.  This  feedback  can  be  posiNve  ...  or  negaNve...  recurrency.(vii)  Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems...  it  is  oVen  difficult  to  define  the  border  of  a  complex  system  ...  the  scope  ...  is  ...  determined  by  the  purpose  of  the  descrip.on  of  the  system,  and  is  ...  influenced  by  the  posiNon  of  the  observer...  framing.(viii)  Complex  systems  operate  under  condiNons  far  from  from  equilibrium.  ...  Equilibrium  is  another  word  for  death.(xi)  Complex  systems  have  a  history.  Not  only  do  they  evolve  through  Nme,  but  their  past  is  co-‐responsible  for  their  present  behaviour.(x)  Each  element  in  the  system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  whole.

Complexity  &Postmodernism,  Paul  Cilliers,  1998

many  elements  interact  

dynamically,  non-‐linear  and  

rich   The  interacNons  can  also  be  

thought  of  as  the  transference  of  informa.on

interacNons  have  a  short  

range  and  wide  ranging  influence  

Complex  systems  are  usually  open  systems

There  are  loops  in  

the  interacNons

Complex  systems  have  a  history

Each  element  in  the  

system  is  ignorant  of  the  behaviour  of  the  system  as  a  

whole

Complex  Systems  

operate  far  from  equilibrium

What  concrete  

examples  of  complex  systems  can  you  think  of  

NOW?

Page 20: From chaos to complexity

Brains,  bacteria,  immune  systems,  the  Internet,  countries,  gardens,  ciLes,  beehives…They’re  all  complex  adapLve  systems.

Page 21: From chaos to complexity

A  team  is  a  complex  adapLve  system  (CAS),  because  it  consists  of  parts  (people)  that  form  a  system  (team),  which  shows  complex  behavior  while  it  keeps  adap.ng  to  a  changing  environment.

Page 22: From chaos to complexity

Chaos  is  any  state  

of  confusion  or  disorder,  randomness,  a  lack  of  intelligible  

pattern  or  combination

hVp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos

Page 23: From chaos to complexity

Süddeutsche  Zeitung,  Nr.  176,  1.  August  2012  

Page 24: From chaos to complexity

Kitty Kraus, People’s Choice Prize at the Hamburgerbahnhof 2011

Page 25: From chaos to complexity

The  Nunchaku  Bruce  Lee  vs  Danny  Inosanto,  "Game  of  Death"  (1978)

Page 26: From chaos to complexity

unhappy  customersOnce  there  was  a  software  business  with

Page 27: From chaos to complexity

quality  and  productivityCustomer  satisfaction  was  low  because  of  low

Page 28: From chaos to complexity

lack  of  skills  and  disciplineQuality  and  productivity  were  low  because  there  was

Page 29: From chaos to complexity

pressure  on  teamsCustomer  dissatisfaction  increased

Page 30: From chaos to complexity

no  time  foreducation

Stress  at  work  meant

Page 31: From chaos to complexity

no  skills  andno  discipline

No  education  meant

Page 32: From chaos to complexity

unhappy  teamsCustomer  pressure  led  to

Page 33: From chaos to complexity

decreasingmotivation

Lack  of  skills  and  unhappy  customers  added  to

Page 34: From chaos to complexity

decreasingproductivity

Decreasedmotivationadded  to

Page 35: From chaos to complexity

Causal  Loop  DiagramWe  call  this  a

Diagram  of  Effects)(Some  call  it  a

Page 36: From chaos to complexity

vicious  cyclesIt  shows  the  business  suffered  from

Page 37: From chaos to complexity

manyAnd  not  just  one,  but

Page 38: From chaos to complexity

revenues  decliningManagement  saw

Page 39: From chaos to complexity

cutting  budgets

They  tried  to  supportimprovement  while

Page 40: From chaos to complexity

Meanwhile,  technological  pressure  was  increasing

And  due  to  the  crisis,  economic  pressure  also  went  up

Page 41: From chaos to complexity

Needless  to  say,  this  business  was

DOOMED

Page 42: From chaos to complexity

Grow  Structure

Prinzessinnengärten  Berlin  

Page 43: From chaos to complexity

„...organizaNons  which  design  

systems  ...  are  constrained  to  produce  designs  which  are  copies  of  the  com-‐municaNon  structures  of  these  organizaNons.“  

Conway’s  law

Page 44: From chaos to complexity

Darkness  Principle

Page 45: From chaos to complexity
Page 46: From chaos to complexity

Misfit by Thomas Grünfeld

Page 47: From chaos to complexity

Agile  Agile  Team  Startup  

Page 48: From chaos to complexity

Step  1:  Product"The  minimum  plan  necessary  to  start  a  

Scrum  project  consists  of  a  vision  and  a  Product  

Backlog"

Page 49: From chaos to complexity

Step  1:  Product  Co-‐Create  the  Team  Vision  and  iniNal  

Product  Backlog  with  the  Product  Owners

Page 50: From chaos to complexity

Step  2:  Journey  Lines  

fosters  self-‐organizaNon  and  cross-‐funcNonal  

behavior  because  it  reveals  a  person’s  skills,  experiences,  

background.  This  way,  the  rest  of  the  team  knows  what  this  person  “brings  to  

the  party.”  

Journey Lines by Lyssa Adkins

Page 51: From chaos to complexity

Step  3:  Grow  Structure

Co-‐Design  the  team-‐structure  and  decide  who  is  in  which  team,  agree  on  the  roles  and  what  the  teams  

want  to  achieve  together.

Meddlers Game by Jurgen Appelo (Management 3.0)

Page 52: From chaos to complexity

Step  3:  Grow  Structure

Choose  team  members  according  to  interest  in  the  main  feature  area(s)  

and  who  wants  to  work  together

Meddlers Game by Jurgen Appelo (Management 3.0)

Page 53: From chaos to complexity

Step  3:  Grow  Structure

Decide  on  structure  for  first  teams  in  fish  bowl

hVp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fishbowl_(conversaLon)

Page 54: From chaos to complexity

1. Address  complexity  with  complexity2. Use  a  diversity  of  perspecNves3. Assume  dependence  on  context4. Assume  subjecNvity  and  coevoluNon5. AnNcipate,  adapt,  explore6. Develop  models  in  collaboraNon7. Shorten  the  feedback  cycle8. Steal  and  tweak

Complexity Thinking

Page 55: From chaos to complexity

StartComplexity  

Doing

When Faith Moves Mountains by Francis Alÿs

Page 56: From chaos to complexity

For  a  book  list  and  references  write  an  e-‐mail  to  [email protected]  or  contact  me  on  twiher  @haaslab

Page 57: From chaos to complexity

QuesNons?