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FROM ANTHROPOCENETO SUSTAINOCENE
Challenges and opportunities
by Bryan Furnass
ANU Emeritus Faculty
21 March 2012
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Paul Crutzen (2000) Naming the anthropocene
Fig 1
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James Watt’s steam engine (1754)
Fig 2
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Stephenson’s Rocket (1829)
60 kph
Fig 3
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World Rail Speed Record
(France 2007)
Fig 4
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CO2
CH4
Fig 6
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CARBON COSTS OF ENERGY
• POWER SOURCE CO2 in g/kWh
• Nuclear 4• Wind 8• Large scale hydro 8• Energy crops 17• Geothermal 79• Solar 133• Gas 430*• Diesel 772• Oil 828• Coal 955**
(UK Govt’s Energy Technology Support Unit Report, 2008)
Fig 7
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Fig 8
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Fig 9
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Human Population Growth
Fig 10
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Fossil Energy Use
Fig 11
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Inequalities in the Anthropocene
Energy Use
Life Expectancy
Fig12
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History of the Biosphere
Fig 13
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Stromatolites, Shark Bay, WA
Fig 14
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Chlorophyll molecule
Fig 15
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Chlorophyll diagram
Fig 16
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Fig 17
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Fig 18
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A Brief History of Homo sapiensLifestyle Time (years) Generations
Hunter-Gatherers *
> 200,000 > 8,000
Agriculture (Holocene) **
> 10,000 > 400
Cities ***
> 5,000 > 200
Industry (fossil fuels)**** ( Anthropocene)
250 10
Information Technology *****
50 2
Sustainocene ???******
25 1 Fig19
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description page there is shown below.
Commons is a freely licensed media file
repository. You can help.
Camera location
3° 32' 3.46" S, 35° 26' 18.92" E
This and other images at their locations on: Google Maps - Google Earth - OpenStreetMap
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Hunter-gatherers: evolutionary health principle (Stephen Boyden)
Fig 20
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Health in the Anthropocene
•Nutrition
•Metabolic syndrome (obesity, etc)
•Sugars and refined CHO +++
•Saturated fats ++
•Exercise (Homo sedentarius)
•Much reduced in work, transport, recreation
Fig 21
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Political ‘Triumphs’ of Anthropocene
over Sustainocene• LARGE COAL SUBSIDIES
• RISING CO2 EMISSIONS
• NEW COAL MINES, COAL SEAM GAS FRACKING • DEGRADATION OF SOILS AND ECOSYSTEMS• DREDGING NEAR GREAT BARRIER REEF• CONTINUING DEFORESTATION• NEGLECT OF RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE• NEGLECT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL• NEGLECTED SUSTAINABLE HOUSING/
AGRICULTURE• UNDERMINING SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINOCENE• DENIALISM Fig 22
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“Achievements” of the Anthropocene
• SPECIES EXTINCTION : 30,000pa
• POLLUTION pa:10bt CO2, 121mt N, 10mt P
• GLOBAL TEMP. RISE ? 4-5oC BY 2100
• DESTRUCTION OF SOIL, WATER, ENERGY
• PEAK FISH: 2004; PEAK OIL: 2006
• OCEANIC “DEAD ZONES” >400
• ARMS EXPENDITURE $1.6 Tn pa
• “PEAK OIL”
• ?? HUMAN POPULATION TO 9 Bn BY 2100
• ?? WAITING FOR THE FOUR HORSEMEN
Fig 23
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Impacts of Anthropocene on Human Health
• Advantages• Decrease in maternal deaths: doubled life expectancy• Generally improved material living standards• Improvements in public health, medical care• Disadvantages• Epidemic - metabolic syndrome of obesity Type 2
diabetes, cardiovascular disorders• Emerging infectious diseases, antibiotic resistance• Drug and alcohol abuse • More cancers, apparent mental and social disorders• Effects of global warming (extreme weather events etc.)
Fig 24
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Impacts of Anthropocene on Human and Planetary Health
• Extreme weather events – habitat loss, hyperthermia, stress
• Emergence of vector-borne and water-borne diseases
• Rioting, warfare for resources• Breakdown of social and material infrastructures• Economic collapse – national, personal
Fig 25
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The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization
Peak Oil
c. 1930 c. 2025
Pre-Industrial Phase [c. 3,000,000 BC to 1765] A = Tool making begins (c. 3,000,000 BC) B = Fire use begins (c. 1,000,000 BC) C = Neolithic Agricultural Revolution (c. 8,000 BC) D = Watt's steam engine, 1765 Interval D-E is a transition period.
Fig 26
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Towards the Sustainocene
From 19th century ancient, dirty, non-renewable solar CAPITAL
To 21st century clean renewable solar CURRENCY – a new industrial revolution:
Local: Building design and operation (insulation, solar hot water, photovoltaics), biofuels
Central: Solar Thermal Electricity (STE): covering 0.5% of deserts with mirrors focused on turbines would meet all electricity needs. Also geothermal; wind; waves; tides
A TIPPING POINT FOR HOPE
Fig 27
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Towards the Sustainocene
Transport: From road to rail, from air to wind-assisted ships; hybrid cars; biofuels from algae and crop wastes, not from food crops or palm oil from cleared forests; Solar or wind - generated H2 in fuel cells
Agriculture: Cease land clearing; move to organic agriculture for better water retention, less pesticides, herbicides; local food production to reduce transport costs
Health: Equity of resources; healthy nutrition; more use of muscle power; adaptation to inevitable global warming (Lovelock)
A TIPPING POINT FOR HOPE
Fig 28
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Message from Bhutan for Rio+20 (2012)
•Aim for growth in happiness, not GDP •Bhutan’s “Happiness index” top in Asia •Life expectancy doubled in 50 yrs •99% of primary age children in school•Aims 60% of country to remain forested •Aims to preserve rich biodiversity•Bhutan vows to always be a carbon sink•Aims to be 100% organic in agriculture
Fig 29
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Shortcomings of Bhutan
• Bhutan is one of the ‘poorest’ countries• 25% of its people live on < $1.25 a day• 70% without electricity• World’s poorest 20% consume 1% goods • Richest 20% consume 86% goods• World’s poorest emit 2% GHGs• Bhutan has ethnic human rights issues in
expelling > 100,000 settlers to refugee camps in Nepal, looked after by UNHCR
Fig 30
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Mirrors can light up the WorldSolar Plant in the Mojave Desert, California
Fig 31
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Solar furnace (French Pyrenees) - 3,800oC
Fig 32
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Fresnel linear solar collectors
Fig 33
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Future 177 MW Plant, California (Linear Fresnel Reflector)
Fig 34
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AREVA Solar Thermal Electricity (Chinchilla,Qld) 250 mW
www.solardawn.com.au Fig 35
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Solar Dawn – 250 MW (Qld)
Fig 36
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STE Sustainocene for USA (Mills)
• Solar collecting and storage square FOR GRID with 153km sides, would replace 2.3 billion tonnes of CO2 equiv.
• Theoretical electrical replacement of entire VEHICLE fuels would save an additional 2.0 bt of CO2
• Replacement of fossil fuel energy for GRID PLUS VEHICLES by STE in USA would save 4.3 bt CO2 = 17% of global emissions reduction required.
• Estimated costs for USA to replace static + vehicle loads• Future US $1500 per peak kW = c. $723 bn - $1566 bn
capital investment, cf $482 bn pa for imported oil (05-06)• Payback time would be 1.5-3.0 years, with additional
environmental, health and global benefits Fig 37
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Micro - Sustainocene
Fig 38
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Agents of the Anthropocene
(The Five "Ps")POPULATION
POVERTY
POLLUTION
PROFIT
PREPARATION FOR WARFARE
Fig 39
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Agents of the Sustainocene
(The Four "Es")
ENLIGHTENMENT
ECOLOGY
EDUCATION
ETHICS
Fig 40
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The ABC of Enlightenment
AWE
BEAUTY
CARITAS (Care and active responsibility for people and nature)
Fig 41
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The Cerebral Cortex Contains 1011 neurones.There are 1029 possible inter-connections.
Homo sapiens or Homo hubris?
Fig 42
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The Horsehead Nebula
We are children of the universe
Fig 43
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(one of millions of other species)
We are creatures of the biosphere. Fig 44
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“Lifesaving Energy”
Spelled outout by 3,000 Bega residents on Tathra beach
Fig 45
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“To Our Future” (Translation)
Spelled out in Mandarin by Narooma High School students
Fig 46
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Pandora’s Box
"The Creation of "[A]NESIDORA" (Pandora) on a white-ground kylix by the Tarquina Painter, ca. 460 BC. British Museum.
A pithos from Crete, ca. 675 BC. Louvre.
Fig 47
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s Fig 48
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Spes or "Hope"; engraving by Sebald Beham, Germany c1540
Fig 49
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We must save this planet - It's the only one with chocolate!
THANK YOU