Freshfel/SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference 25 th September 2009.

Freshfel/SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference

25th September 2009

Northern HemisphereGlobal Crop forecast

2009-2010

Northern Hemisphere ProductionTotal citrus

• Data based on official data, input from representative organisations and businesses to provide a trend for forthcoming season

• Objective is to provide trends • Data from Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Morocco & Egypt is

provisional – we hope to confirm these estimations in the coming weeks. Consequently information on export is still too early to be set.

• Total citrus production in NH very similar to last year, with a 0.2% decrease.– Orange: -7.4%– Easy peelers : -2%– Lemons : +0.3%– Grapefruits : +18%

Northern Hemisphere ProductionTotal citrus

Production Production Prod. Forecast Variation

TOTAL CITRUS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10)

SPAIN 5.334.228 6.743.011 5.400.746 -20%

CYPRUS 136.600 109.200 112.000 3%

ITALY 3.542.800 2.682.920 3.652.120 36%

GREECE 1.049.210 897.500 969.000 8%

MOROCCO 1.239.000 1.360.000 1.275.000 -6%

TURKEY 2.413.000 2.500.000 2.723.000 9%

EGYPT 2.795.000 2.515.500 2.645.000 5%

ISRAEL 547.000 568.000 560.000 -1%

TOTAL MED BASIN 17.056.838 17.376.131 17.336.866 -0,2%

Northern Hemisphere ProductionOranges


ORANGES 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10)

SPAIN 2.705.000 3.462.571 2.528.273 -27%

CYPRUS 29.200 23.360 24.000 3%

ITALY 2.527.500 2.490.900 2.550.000 2%

GREECE 930.500 802.000 860.000 7%

MOROCCO 732.400 790.000 780.000 -1%

TURKEY 1.173.000 1.173.000 1.173.000 0%

EGYPT 1.800.000 1.620.000 1.700.000 5%

ISRAEL 115.000 173.000 140.000 -19%

TOTAL MED BASIN 10.012.600 10.534.831 9.755.273 -7,4%

Northern Hemisphere ProductionEasy Peelers


EASY PEELERS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10)

SPAIN 2.040.000 2.229.626 2.029.473 -9%

CYPRUS 61.300 49.040 50.000 2%

ITALY 702.700 527.000 702.700 33%

GREECE 64.910 58.500 62.000 6%

MOROCCO 471.600 531.000 460.000 -13%

TURKEY 495.000 600.000 550.000 -8%

EGYPT 660.000 594.000 625.000 5%

ISRAEL 133.000 130.000 150.000 15%

TOTAL MED BASIN 4.628.510 4.719.166 4.629.173 -2%

Northern Hemisphere ProductionLemons


LEMONS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10)

SPAIN 543.034 1.000.000 800.000 -20%

CYPRUS 17.500 14.000 15.000 7%

ITALY 546.600 655.920 655.920 0%

GREECE 46.500 30.500 40.000 31%

MOROCCO (Other citrus) 35.000 39.000 35.000 -10%

TURKEY 500.000 527.000 700.000 33%

EGYPT 335.000 301.500 320.000 6%

ISRAEL 64.000 45.000 55.000 22%

TOTAL MED BASIN 2.087.634 2.612.920 2.620.920 0,3%

Northern Hemisphere ProductionGrapefruit


GRAPEFRUITS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10)

SPAIN 46.194 50.814 43.000 -15%

CYPRUS 28.600 22.800 23.000 1%

ITALY 0 0 0

GREECE 7.300 6.500 7.000 8%

MOROCCO 0 0 0

TURKEY 245.000 200.000 300.000 50%

EGYPT 0 0 0

ISRAEL 235.000 220.000 215.000 -2%

TOTAL MED BASIN 562.094 500.114 588.000 18%

Northern Hemisphere Production & Exports - Total citrus

Production Production Prod. Forecast Variation Export Export Exp, Forecast

ORANGESTOTAL CITRUS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10) 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010

SPAIN 5.334.228 6.743.011 5.400.746 -20% 3.036.300 3.299.541 3.265.000

CYPRUS 136.600 109.200 112.000 3% 68.900 57.400 0

ITALY 3.542.800 2.682.920 3.652.120 36% 246.500 191.000 257.000

GREECE 1.049.210 897.500 969.000 8% 259.020 279.500 0

MOROCCO 1.239.000 1.360.000 1.275.000 -6% 582.300 652.300 0

TURKEY 2.413.000 2.500.000 2.723.000 9% 724.700 990.000 1.105.000

EGYPT 2.795.000 2.515.500 2.645.000 5% 793.800 793.500 0

ISRAEL 547.000 568.000 560.000 -1% 165.100 181.000 188.000

TOTAL MED BASIN 17.056.838 17.376.131 17.336.866 -0,2% 5.876.620 6.444.241 4.815.000

Northern Hemisphere Production & Exports - Oranges


ORANGES 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10) 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010

SPAIN 2.705.000 3.462.571 2.528.273 -27% 1.275.600 1.365.267 1.350.000

CYPRUS 29.200 23.360 24.000 3% 18.000 14.400

ITALY 2.293.500 1.500.000 2.293.500 53% 124.000 68.000 124.000

GREECE 930.500 802.000 860.000 7% 229.800 250.000

MOROCCO 732.400 790.000 780.000 -1% 295.700 305.000

TURKEY 1.173.000 1.173.000 1.173.000 0% 147.900 250.000 250.000

EGYPT 1.800.000 1.620.000 1.700.000 5% 762.300 762.000

ISRAEL 115.000 173.000 140.000 -19% 30.000 42.000 35.000

TOTAL MED BASIN 9.778.600 9.543.931 9.498.773 -0,5% 2.883.300 3.056.667 1.759.000

Northern Hemisphere Production &Exports - Easy Peelers


ORANGESEASY PEELERS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10) 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010

SPAIN 2.040.000 2.229.626 2.029.473 -9% 1.417.200 1.424.274 1.425.000

CYPRUS 61.300 49.040 50.000 2% 28.200 22.500

ITALY 702.700 527.000 702.700 33% 73.000 63.000 73.000

GREECE 64.910 58.500 62.000 6% 26.550 26.200

MOROCCO 471.600 531.000 460.000 -13% 272.200 332.000

TURKEY 495.000 600.000 550.000 -8% 221.800 382.000 350.000

EGYPT 660.000 594.000 625.000 5% 7.400 7.400

ISRAEL 133.000 130.000 150.000 15% 50.000 52.000 60.000

TOTAL MED BASIN 4.628.510 4.719.166 4.629.173 -2% 2.096.350 2.309.374 1.908.000

Northern Hemisphere Production &Exports - Lemons


ORANGESLEMONS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10) 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010

SPAIN 543.034 1.000.000 800.000 -20% 305.400 470.000 450.000

CYPRUS 17.500 14.000 15.000 7% 5.600 5.100

ITALY 546.600 655.920 655.920 0% 49.500 60.000 60.000

GREECE 46.500 30.500 40.000 31% 1.730 2.000

MOROCCO (Other citrus)35.000 39.000 35.000 -10% 14.400 15.300

TURKEY 500.000 527.000 700.000 33% 223.900 230.000 360.000

EGYPT 335.000 301.500 320.000 6% 22.900 22.900

ISRAEL 64.000 45.000 55.000 22% 4.100 0 3.000

TOTAL MED BASIN 2.087.634 2.612.920 2.620.920 0,3% 627.530 805.300 873.000

Northern Hemisphere Production &Exports - Grapefruit


ORANGESGRAPEFRUITS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 (08/09)/(09/10) 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010

SPAIN 46.194 50.814 43.000 -15% 38.100 40.000 40.000

CYPRUS 28.600 22.800 23.000 1% 17.100 15.400

ITALY 0 0 0 0 0 0

GREECE 7.300 6.500 7.000 8% 940 1.300

MOROCCO 0 0 0 0 0 0

TURKEY 245.000 200.000 300.000 50% 131.100 128.000 145.000

EGYPT 0 0 0 1.200 1.200

ISRAEL 235.000 220.000 215.000 -2% 81.000 87.000 90.000

TOTAL MED BASIN 562.094 500.114 588.000 18% 269.440 272.900 275.000

Northern HemisphereCountry information

2008-2009

Freshfel Citrus Teleconference

Northern Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 season

SPAIN

25th September 2009

Key points of 2009/10 season

• GENERAL CITRUS COMMENTS

– Overall reduction– Maturity coming later– Better sizes than last season– Very good quality conditions– Exports volumes to be similar to 2008/9 season.– Less quantities will be sent to processing

• ORANGES– Overall Production down by 27% – Less production to be considered in all varieties but reduction is

not so important in mid season navels


• EASY PEELERS– Overall Production down by 9%– Reduction is concentrated in medium/late varieties

• LEMONS– Overall Production down by 20%– Reduction is mainly concentrated in Vernas (-70%).– Slight reduction in Finos

• GRAPEFRUITS– Overall production down by 15%– No interest in processing– Export season to start 3rd week of october



Italy

25th September 2009


• GENERAL CITRUS COMMENTS

– Campaign expected to be improved on last year, considered back to normal

– Oranges and soft citrus expected to be at levels similar to 2007/08

– Lemons expected to be the same as last year



Greece

25th September 2009


• Key points which had an impact during the 2008/09 season

– Heat on early June 2008. – Heat all over August 2008.

Indications for 2009/10 season

• Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts, water situation, flowering, planting information, picking dates, etc.

– No problems till today has occurred– Ordinary (normal) harvest is expected.

Current issues of concern

• Issues expected to have significant impacts on 2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...)

– Decrease of demand due to the economic crisis.– Intense competition.



CYPRUS

25th September 2009


• Key points which had an impact during the 2008/09 season– The drought of the previous years…….– The low level of producer prices of the last few years

specially for grapefruit …….– Hale storms experienced during the 2008/9 picking

season…….– …..


• Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts, water situation, flowering, planting information, picking dates, etc.– Water situation improved but still strong restrictions

on quantity of water available for irrigation......– Flowering was good but strong drop experienced and

affected expected production.......– ......


• Issues expected to have significant impacts on 2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...)– Russia: will the MRL sontrols become stricter ? Last

season the “barrier “ proved to be only theoretical.......– Is Europe and the world coming out of the crisis?......– Weather conditions in producing countries that may

affect exportable quantities. ......



Morocco

25th September 2009


• Forecast to be concluded by 5th october– Soft citrus trends: fruit bearing being normal and expected

decline of clementines in Berkane by 10%. Heat problems which could result in a problem of sizing. Sharp decrease of Nour due to alternate bearings ( -40%)

– Oranges :expected to be similar to last year, similar fruit bearing, better climatic outlook for the start of the autumn could stimulate sizes which remain so far an issue

– Too early to make export estimates



TURKEY

25th September 2009


• Key points which had an impact during the 2008/09 season

– The good quality of the easy peelers lead to an important increase of the exports

– Opening up of the Iranian market and increase of exports to Iraqi markets paved the way to the remarkable increase of the citrus exports

– Addendum to the memorandum between Turkey and Russian Federation signed


• Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts, water situation, flowering, planting information, picking dates, etc.

– Relatively cooler summer has passed with regard to previous years

– Higher volume of production is expected for lemons and grapefruits

– Increase of grapefruit production may lead to sizing problems for the export markets


• Issues expected to have significant impacts on 2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...)

– Attempts continue to open Far East markets. – Citrus Buying Mission Program is planning to be

organized with broad participation of companies from 27 countries in November.

– Turkish Citrus Promotion Group is to enhance and develop promotion activities in Russia.



USA

25th September 2009


• The initial citrus crop report for the 2009/10 season will be released by the USDA at 8:30 AM on Friday, October 9th. There have been some private forecasts and industry surveys to date, and much speculation particularly concerning the Florida industry and the spread of citrus greening. It is clearly difficult to factor for abandoned groves. Therefore, all we can do at this point is to provide some impressions.

• Texas:– Grapefruit: The production for the new campaign will be down

slightly, 5 to 10% from drought conditions.

Florida• Growing conditions have been quite favorable with good rains and lots

of sunshine and the absence of strong tropical storms. Yet there are continuing indications of a trend towards lower production.

• Oranges: A reliable private forecast projects 6.34 m tons a 5% decline from the last 2008/09 crop report. About 5% of this crop will move into fresh juice markets and 72,000 tons will be fresh Navel Oranges which would be down 10% from last year. The balance of the crop will go to processing.

• Tangerines: The early varieties, Fallglo and Sunburst could be down by as much as 10% while the Honey Tangerine production could be up by 35% as the trees have recovered from the late winter freeze. From a base volume of 185,000 tons we see a gradual decline in the category.

• Grapefruit: The 2008/09 crop of 840,000 tons was 18% below 2007/08 and a further decline is projected for 2009/10. While maturity and sizing are very good the high incidence of Melanose will reduce the fresh pack-out.

California• Navel Oranges: At 1.4 m tons this crop is forecast to be up by 5% over last

season’s final report. Surveys indicate good quality and sizing.

• Tangerines: We anticipate an increase in production as more Clementines and Late Mandarin acreage comes into the bearing cycle. Estimates have last year’s movement at 45 million 2.3 kilo equivalents and that could easily reach 55 million this season. The trees are in the ground to produce over 100 million cartons. Seedy fruit continues to be a challenge along with overall yields which could be linked to growing conditions and/or cultural practices.

• Grapefruit: No major change in production is expected, with an estimate of 140,000 tons.

• Lemons: The desert areas of Southern California and Arizona are forecast to be down by 30% from lack of rain, although this is not the primary district for production. A crop of 725,000 tons would be down by 14% from the final 2008/09 crop report.

Economic Impact

• The prolonged economic downturn has caused consumers to be more cautious if not fearful of the future, and these concerns are definitely influencing buying behavior. The search for value, either real or perceived manifests itself in emerging trends:

• Dining-In or shopping at local produce markets

• Trading down for example exotic fruits for bananas

• Bulk commodities versus prepared salads

• Packaged Easy-Peelers versus the 5 lb. carton

• A 20% reduction in fresh lemon sales to food service

• In general the volume of produce sales in the USA market has remained steady but sales value is probably down by 5%. There is constant shifting of purchasing with the produce section, all in search of value.



China

25th September 2009


• Key points which had an impact during the 2008/09 season – China Pomelos– Strong local market– Currency issues– (Too) Many (inexperienced) players in the market

(exporters as well as importers)– MRL-issues


• Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts, water situation, flowering, planting information, picking dates, etc.– Favourable weather conditions pre-season– Rain during harvest till now– Guangdong Province starts early with their (inferior)

fruits – Spoils the Fujian markets – Around 30% more fruit (in kg) on the trees– Larger calibre fruit than usual– Fruit from “Pinghe” one week earlier than planned


• Issues expected to have significant impacts on 2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...)– Inferior fruits and speculative loadings led to rapid

decrease of the market prices– Main suppliers and retailers act cautious– Less fruit shipped August/September than last season– More consciousness of the MRL theme than before– Develop “MRL EU/RETAIL - ok -” and

“possibly not ok- ” market offers– More strict involvement of local governments– Cautiousness with regards to payments/credits

• Apples - 30%

• Pears - 25%

• Ginger + 5%

• Garlic -30%

• Pomelos + 30%

China market estimates (main export products - % difference to last season)

Southern HemisphereSummary export season

2009

SH Orange exports – week 35

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 87.827 56.459 -36%Australia 53.268 69.071 30%Chile 22.965 13.726 -40%Peru 9.835 2.649 -73%South Africa 601.588 576.601 -4%Uruguay 31.705 23.973 -24%TOTAL 807.188 742.480 -8%

GRAND TOTALOrange quantities (T) departed up to week 35

SH Orange exports – week 35

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09 Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 63.515 47.814 -25% Argentina 1.686 658 -61%Australia 1.075 947 -12% Australia 4.044 6.280 55%Chile 15.609 1.834 -88% Chile 25 435 1640%Peru 8.750 1.980 -77% Peru 0 0South Africa 322.083 204.239 -37% South Africa 114.255 144.099 26%Uruguay 29.029 20.453 -30% Uruguay 260 320 23%TOTAL 440.060 277.268 -37% TOTAL 120.270 151.792 26%

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09 Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 21.251 6.372 -70% Argentina 464 717 55%Australia 432 385 -11% Australia 22.241 20.769 -7%Chile 0 0 Chile 4.332 9.245 113%Peru 0 0 Peru 1.086 455 -58%South Africa 41.938 57.776 38% South Africa 47.738 42.950 -10%Uruguay 1.600 100 -94% Uruguay 625 1.880 201%TOTAL 65.222 64.633 -1% TOTAL 76.485 76.015 -1%

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09 Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 815 898 10% Argentina 96 0 -100%Australia 21.594 38.405 78% Australia 3.882 2.286 -41%Chile 2.540 1.079 -58% Chile 459 1.133 147%Peru 0 0 Peru 0 214South Africa 66.787 80.243 20% South Africa 8.786 47.294 438%Uruguay 0 30 Uruguay 191 1.190 523%TOTAL 91.736 120.656 32% TOTAL 13.415 52.116 288%

RUSSIA

EUROPE MIDDLE EAST

USA + CANADA

OtherASIA + CHINA

Orange quantities (T) departed up to week 35 Orange quantities (T) departed up to week 35

Oranges quantities (T) departed up to week 35Orange quantities (T) departed up to week 35

Orange quantities (T) departed up to week 35Orange quantities (T) departed up to week 35

SH Soft Citrus exports – week 31

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 58.317 74.716 28%Australia 8.768 9.107 4%Chile 17.664 26.794 52%Peru 37.579 33.139 -12%South Africa 83.399 77.574 -7%Uruguay 22.944 24.257 6%TOTAL 228.672 245.587 7%

GRAND TOTALSoft Citrus quantities (T) departed up to week 31

SH softcitrus exports – week 31

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09 Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 25.810 38.550 49% Argentina 1.017 972 -4%Australia 268 579 116% Australia 689 1.088 58%Chile 5.123 3.541 -31% Chile 0 46Peru 23.078 18.849 -18% Peru 0 22South Africa 56.840 51.307 -10% South Africa 6.649 5.978 -10%Uruguay 19.511 20.517 5% Uruguay 120 40 -67%TOTAL 130.629 133.343 2% TOTAL 8.475 8.146 -4%

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09 Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 26.286 26.893 2% Argentina 521 1.778 241%Australia 471 327 -31% Australia 2.565 2.307 -10%Chile 0 0 Chile 12.248 22.718 85%Peru 1.576 661 -58% Peru 11.403 12.516 10%South Africa 8.844 7.477 -15% South Africa 5.408 7.369 36%Uruguay 1.421 1.222 -14% Uruguay 962 1.264 31%TOTAL 38.598 36.579 -5% TOTAL 33.107 47.952 45%

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09 Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 4.489 6.523 45% Argentina 194 0 -100%Australia 4.128 4.296 4% Australia 647 510 -21%Chile 22 151 586% Chile 271 338 25%Peru 0 46 Peru 1.523 1.045 -31%South Africa 4.670 4.342 -7% South Africa 988 1.101 11%Uruguay 200 823 312% Uruguay 730 391 -46%TOTAL 13.509 16.180 20% TOTAL 4.353 3.386 -22%

RUSSIA

EUROPE MIDDLE EAST

USA + CANADA

OtherASIA + CHINASoft Citrus quantities (T) departed up to week 31 Soft Citrus quantities (T) departed up to week 31

Soft Citrus quantities (T) departed up to week 31Soft Citrus quantities (T) departed up to week 31

Soft Citrus quantities (T) departed up to week 31Soft Citrus quantities (T) departed up to week 31

SH Lemon exports – week 37

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 315.848 201.528 -36%Australia 396 408 3%Chile 39.840 22.754 -43%Peru 182 422 131%South Africa 126.238 107.820 -15%Uruguay 9.558 7.539 -21%TOTAL 492.062 340.471 -31%

GRAND TOTALLemon quantities (T) departed up to week 37

SH softcitrus exports – week 37

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09 Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 218.555 153.478 -30% Argentina 1.177 560 -52%Australia 0 2 Australia 114 65 -43%Chile 1.208 438 -64% Chile 0 408Peru 101 394 290% Peru 0 0South Africa 59.001 30.144 -49% South Africa 42.485 46.742 10%Uruguay 6.792 6.243 -8% Uruguay 1.080 740 -31%TOTAL 285.657 190.698 -33% TOTAL 44.856 48.515 8%

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09 Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 85.963 39.395 -54% Argentina 6.074 5.140 -15%Australia 42 31 -26% Australia 29 101 250%Chile 0 0 Chile 21.504 12.700 -41%Peru 0 0 Peru 0 0South Africa 7.951 12.040 51% South Africa 1.804 431 -76%Uruguay 639 0 -100% Uruguay 335 220 -34%TOTAL 94.596 51.466 -46% TOTAL 29.746 18.592 -37%

Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09 Country 2008 2009 Var 08/09Argentina 4.016 2.915 -27% Argentina 63 40 -37%Australia 201 161 -20% Australia 10 47 381%Chile 17.080 9.197 -46% Chile 48 11 -77%Peru 0 0 Peru 81 28 -66%South Africa 13.657 14.427 6% South Africa 1.339 4.037 202%Uruguay 420 236 -44% Uruguay 292 100 -66%TOTAL 35.374 26.936 -24% TOTAL 1.833 4.263 133%

RUSSIA

EUROPE MIDDLE EAST

USA + CANADA

OtherASIA + CHINALemon quantities (T) departed up to week 37 Lemon quantities (T) departed up to week 37

Lemon quantities (T) departed up to week 37Lemon quantities (T) departed up to week 37

Lemon quantities (T) departed up to week 37Lemon quantities (T) departed up to week 37

Freshfel/SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference 25 th September 2009.

Documents

Transcript of Freshfel/SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference 25 th September 2009.